Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

CorkRed93

where will all the workers who were building offices go to i wonder, now that the market is contracting massively in comparison to pre covid

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163837#Comment_121163837

Exactly.

I dont believe the business environment has the capacity to build anything like those numbers.

If we could, great. But there is a finite amount of labour and a limited appetitie for lending, as well as all the planning constraints.

Not to mention the construction focus on commercial and infrastructural projects, which further erodes building resource from the residential sector.

We needs those infrastructural projects to support a growing population - they cant be halted.

This is what people arent considering when they say SF will fix the housing crisis.

They absolutley wont because the resources arent there to do it!

Could we build more than 30k, yes. How much more though is debateable and whatever the realistic number is, it is not going to be enough to alleviate the housing crisis in the next decade. We would need to building 60k to 70k a year at minimum to do that.

It isnt going to happen under ANY govt over the next decade.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164145#Comment_121164145

Commerical is dead.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164663#Comment_121164663

Not as far as the construction industry is concerned. Plenty of offices still being built in Dublin.

Whether they get occupied is irrelevant to this conversation.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163837#Comment_121163837

The government currently has billions of unspent available finance, including over €1bn in the department of housing alone last year. The state could finance developers to build social housing for them easily. It would provide a far better financial return for the state than the current governmental policy of long term leasing of private sector units at sky high costs.

The head of the construction industry of Ireland was on the record last week saying labour supply is no longer the problem (as was discussed in this very thread...). That being said, even if labour was still an issue with a 3-5 year plan its entirely possible to both train and import large amounts of labour - if the will is there.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121164145#Comment_121164145

We literally did exactly what is required now, rapidly expanding our housing completions per year over a 5 year period, already 20 years ago. That was at a time of a very tight labour market, rapidly developing infrastructure, and a booming commercial sector. None of these were unsurmountable problems then, and they arent now.

Just because it hasn't happened under FF&FG, who very deliberately refuse to engage on the suppy side of the housing crisis, doesn't mean it won't happen under any alternative government. Every other party plans to build much more housing than those two.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121165509#Comment_121165509

So you do think SF will oversee the construction of 70k+ homes per year?

I'd love to know how they plan to do that and where they will get the resources from.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121165504#Comment_121165504

What could possibly go wrong with the State financing a hand full of developers?

Relax brah

Given the raise in interest rates and the anticipated fall next year - wouldn't drawing down a 1 year fixed mortgage make sense?

Surely they cannot go much higher than they currently are

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121165632#Comment_121165632

Ultimately questions like this boil down to two answers:

• SF: Very likley unable to achieve
• FF & FG: Demonstated intention of never doing

Choose your preferred poison :(

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166079#Comment_121166079

And if ultimatley, neither is going to achieve the housing required, we need to park it and look at other deliverables that each govt actually CAN produce.

Its at that point that SF run on empty.

herbalplants

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166021#Comment_121166021

Yes they can go much higher and yes they will increase interest rates.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163539#Comment_121163539

A couple of years is 2-3. I doubt if that was bought for 160k in that time frame

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163793#Comment_121163793

Explain to me where the labour to build them comes from as well as all the other resources without a significant increase in costs

danfrancisco83

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166415#Comment_121166415

June '21, €160k

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166426#Comment_121166426

do you think we'll continue building office blocks at the pace we have been for the last 7/8 years? surely that'll free up labour.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121165632#Comment_121165632

The resources are there, as I already replied outlining. All thats missing is the political will.

At this point in time we know both FF and FG have no intention of doing so.

SF, Lab, the SocDems are all claiming they'll increase housing completition numbers dramatically. Will they be able to? Who knows. But at least they'll try, and are extremely likely to increase the numbers somewhat at least.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166426#Comment_121166426

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cif_2_southcon23-constructionindustry-economics-activity-7105501973084282880-aniu?

Jim Power from the CIF is on the record recently at this conference stating labour is no longer the problem. Its planning permission. I'm sure you can find minutes of it if you care to look.

(which would stand to reason with the huge downturn currently happening in commercial development)

I would assume he knows somewhat better than you.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166865#Comment_121166865

Increase the total supply or just increase the number of social housing at the expense of private housing….Maybe read the fine print because when this question was asked of SF there was a deafening silence during a debate a few years back on tv.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166901#Comment_121166901

Increasing the supply of social housing by building more of it increases the supply of private housing. There are currently 60,000 households on HAP, because our recent FF&FG governments stopped social housing building a decade ago. If those households were in social housing instead of the private sector housing, as they should be, we'd have 60,000 more private housing units instantly.

Our current government is doing the opposite, and is both keeping social housing tenants in private housing on HAP, and in recent years leasing entire blocks of private sector housing to use as social housing. They're both wasting huge amounts of tax payers money on this, and outbidding taxpayers on this housing with their own tax money. Its terrible policy from any perspective of fairness, effectiveness, financial prudence, or even just logic.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166827#Comment_121166827

Well fair play to him it was a great deal, its in Dublin, while you will buy apartments in Limerick for that at present its about the bottom of the market. How come I did not buy it.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166865#Comment_121166865

FFG dont have a plan to deliver social housing directly. That is clear. But there is no evidence to say SF will do anything differently.

FFG are standing over a fair number of housing delivery at 30k, and again, there is no evidence that SF will even match the 30k, let alone beat it.

The liklehood is that SF wont get in to power anyway, as they will need FF to form a govt.

As long as FFG close ranks on them again, the current govt will be returned - with the Greens probably replaced by indies/Soc Dems as the third leg.

30k ish new homes over the next few years, possibly rising to 40k is as good as we will get for the next 5 years or so I would say.

Relax brah

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166256#Comment_121166256

How high do you reckon they will go?

wassie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166882#Comment_121166882

Jim Powers is essentially the chief lobbyist for large builders in this country, so his views are inherently biased. Planning reform undoubtedly needs to happen, but its the construction industry leading the push to make judicial reviews against planning decisions more difficult.

Also when you say commercial development, are you actually referring to a subset of commercial being offices (and possibly retail?). Commercial itself is quite broad and includes others like pharma, logistics, data centre, education, hotels, medical etc. all of which are still quote strong.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166901#Comment_121166901

Watched that and if I remember correctly it was a 50/50 split social, affordable/private market. There was a graphic

If they were to achieve that it would be a significant improvement on the number of new homes being offered for sale to the general public for private sale

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166882#Comment_121166882

I am not sure there will be the massive inflow of labour and especially skills from the commercial building sectors as many think.

First the downturn is in office accommodation, (which may be changing as more companies restrict WFH) and maybe the agri sector not across all the sectors.

While in the office construction sector in Dublin this should throw free workers in Dublin other parts will not. However a lot of commercial buildings labour is more semi skilled than full trades. A large section will be steel fixers, mass concrete labour, crane operatives etc. You generally do not tend to have a substantial amount of Plasters, Carpenters and brickies involved.

The skills involved are more in tune with building Apartments than houses which will be 30-50% more expensive than houses

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121163494#Comment_121163494

HTF could the government start a social housing program in 2010. We were bankrupt. We had no control over our finances. Ya I can see it now government prepared it budget 10k Social houses and show it to the IMF and this would be the IMF reaction 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

We had houses that could not be sold and the IMF was going to agree to key the government build more. Nobody saw the resurgence of the Irish economy or Brexit( a substantial reason we see the demand for accommodation and demands in construction) in 2010. The present problems were not even visible in 2016 it was from that on they started to emerge.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121167124#Comment_121167124

SF's policy documents state they will very much do things differently. "Theres no evidence that SF will even match the 30k" is based on... what? Given they've never been in power? At present the only definitive evidence that we have is that FF&FG are either unwilling, or unable, to solve the housing crisis after over 12 years in power.

"a far number of housing delivery" is not an accurate way of describing 30k units per year, as as been discussed in this thread many, many times. We need 35k new housing units a year simply to hold the 100k population increase we've had every year now for multiple years. To account for existing unit replacement, and making a dent in the housing crisis, we'd need 60k+.

SF are polling at almost the same as FF&FG combined according to today's Irish Times, and rising. They're the massive favourites to be in power come 2024 or 2025 with every bookie, and according to every political analyst. We're going to find out what they can do very soon.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121167589#Comment_121167589

In the mid 2010s we were far from bankrupt as a country. By 2015 the Irish economy was very much back on track. HAP became operational in 2017, we could, and should, have been building social housing instead by that stage. As has now been proven.

There were TDs in the Dail, and think tanks, asking questions about the brewing housing crisis in social housing as early as 2014, so it very much was a problem that was visible in 2016.

"What we are currently experiencing is a rental and social housing crisis especially in Dublin" according to DNG of all people, back in 2015. http://pdf.dng.ie/pdf/DNG-Paper-Ireland-AHousingCrisisNov2015.pdf

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121166967#Comment_121166967

So if you’re in the market for a private house there will be less houses available to buy unless all the landlords of the people moved into social housing decide to sell. Without overall supply increasing all that is happening is the pain point is moving to a different cohort…in this case FTB’s

and that is on the assumption that rental property is released and the new social housing isn’t used first on homelessness. It’s nothing more than musical chairs without total supply increasing.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121168155#Comment_121168155

For what it's worth the State does not want council housing because of the problems associated with providing it. How many council tenants are in arrears with their rents which are substantially below market rate? How maxny have been evicted?

Why do you think the housing of these people have been outsourced to approved housing bodies and the private sector?

I always find it funny how people think there is some conspiracy to inflate property prices. A property only has a value when it comes to selling it.

If there is a massive social housing building spree are we going to return to purely council estates? If there is anti social issues/rent arrears how will these be dealt with? Remember by and large these are the very members of the voting public who would vote SF.