Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121165632#Comment_121165632

This argument is made time and again remember back before the 08 crash we were churning out 70k+ properties a year without breaking a sweat. So if could be done again if the will was there to do so.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121168155#Comment_121168155

They are not polling at a rate to form a majority govt. They still need FF.

There is no evidence to say SF can deliver more than 30k. They are unproven, but you seem to think its a given that they will deliver 60k or so per year.

I can all but assure you. They wont.

As I say, I think its largely a moot point, as long as FF hold their stance and dont let them in.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121168361#Comment_121168361

We have different cost and labour bases now and are consumed by multiple larger infrastructural projects.

Then is not the same as now.

If SF can cost and price how they would deliver 70k homes per year, fair enough. Fair play to them.

I havent seen that document yet.

And I suspect I never will.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121168155#Comment_121168155

But in 2010 we were. Demand for housing did not start to rise until 2016 and after. If an Irish government had decided to go building houses before 2016 they have been a riot.

The first thing was trying to actually get the construction industry going again. There was a lot of excess housing still available until after 2016. The IMF was still.in control until about late 2013 if I remember right.

And yes the country was still broke in 2015

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121169499#Comment_121169499

I suspect the poster you are replying to was in school in 2010 and doesn’t remember the full estates of empty and unfinished houses, and the cut backs in government spending demanded by the troika in return for their bailout, who will forget the reports, and dread which used to coincide with their representatives visits to Dublin.

But Blut thinks the government not only could have, but should have added to the number of empty houses, by building more in 2010.

Go figure.

Blut2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121168206#Comment_121168206

No, you're not understanding the problem at all. As things currently stand the Irish state is paying the rent of close to 60,000 households on HAP, keeping them in the private rental market. The state is also signing long term leases for entire apartment blocks that are already completed, to use for social housing, taking those apartments out of the private rental market. Both of these measures drastically reduce the supply of homes in the private rental market, and are being done because FG in particular have an ideological opposition to building social housing.

If the state instead had a large scale social housing construction program, as it has had in past decades, every household moved into a social house when it gets built by the state would be one less in the private rental market.

More social housing built by the state = fewer people in the private rental market = more housing supply in the private rental market for actual tax payers = a more functional rental market, is the fairly simple equation.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121170009#Comment_121170009

And who would build these social houses??.

wassie

The workers that we will import......as soon as we find a place for them to rent!

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121170009#Comment_121170009

The issues in the corporation and social housing estates of the past won't happen in these new houses?

grumpyperson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121170374#Comment_121170374

An interesting question. I think times have changed considerably. Families are much much smaller. It would be interesting to try again

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121170688#Comment_121170688

If anything I personally think the issues would be even worse.

I am old enough to remember when we as a country had no money.

Times have changed were we have an " entitlement culture".

Geuze

I heard Pearse Doherty speak at the DEW last week. This what he said:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5cae4d7ea9ab9533d3a45357/t/651434766bd67d1b137ca58f/1695822967408/Doherty.pdf

See page 19 for housing.

He mentioned two tools:

using stamp duty changes to discourage construction of commercial property, so as to divert labour and capital to residential construction

he mentioned "emergency measures" twice, as in like the fast response to COVID.

Beigepaint

Does SF have any specific policies on keeping the capital’s buildings under their current height cap? Or any policies relating to encouraging height increases within the canals?

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121170962#Comment_121170962

SF policies is houses for everyone.......well those that cannot afford or do not want to pay for houses everybody else can f@@k off.

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121169641#Comment_121169641

The only time the governance of Ireland was overseen by a mature adult, any dread was within government

Very popular with the public

AJ Chopra (Imf)

I have had a somewhat unexpected and new-found notoriety while I've been here. Everybody has been very gracious and I'm not used to a situation where I've been so recognisable. People have come up to me - and called me by my first name as well - but they've done so in a very polite and very gracious way and they've always wished me the best. The pluck of the Irish has been coming out in this crisis

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121168358#Comment_121168358

I always find it funny how people think there is some conspiracy to inflate property prices. A property only has a value when it comes to selling it.

I think the conspiracy is theory is that the government is spending 4 billion to help solve the housing issue.

The truth is that every measure introduced by government is inflationary. Imagine if most of that money was spent on new supply rather than stoking existing demand

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121170374#Comment_121170374

A very high percentage of housing in Ireland was originally social housing, for every problem estate, would you be able to find 10 good ones?

Would the issues if the past reoccur in a period of full employment?

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171293#Comment_121171293

You have picked a point and tried to use it out of context. The vast majority of people own a single property and it is not an investment. It is a place to live. By and large the vast majority of people who purchase a property to live in will maybe move two or three times throughout their life.

The Student

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171295#Comment_121171295

I am well aware that following the foundation of the State the vast majority of people where housed by the State.

If you assertions were accurate and the issues of the past were related to unemployment then why are those currently on council housing lists offered three properties before they are penalised for not taking one on offer? Surely people would jump at the first offer.

Areas still have reputations for a reason, if people get something easy some will not value it as much as someone who has had to work harder just to get to the same place.

In my view the issue goes deeper than whether someone is employed or not. We as a State refuse to deal with those issues that we all know is wrong be it antisocial issues, non payment of rent, mortgage, illegal activity.

How often do we hear of petty criminals with multiple previous convictions be released with a caution?

Cal4567

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121170688#Comment_121170688

Most of the social housing demand also is for 2 beds, 1 beds, 3s and 4s, in that order. An example of family size demographics.

As for councils, I'd be very worried about their ability to deliver and manage property sensibly.

We need a much larger AHB sector and have done so for a number of years. Because of poor housing policy (hello FFG again) we are playing catch up.

Dav010

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171288#Comment_121171288

You are either being facetious, or as usual unable to apply relevant context to your posts.

The Troika prevented Ireland from dealing with bond holders as they should have, and the policies they imposed on us were more about protecting their own interests than any good intentions for the Irish people.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121168361#Comment_121168361

Back when we imported thousands of Eastern European builders.

These lads have all gone home, now Poland has a growth rate comparable to Ireland, and soon while cities in Ukraine will need to be rebuilt.

No one is coming to Ireland to pay massive cost of living and receive labourers wages.

Cal4567

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171453#Comment_121171453

It might be possible but the State (and particularly middle Ireland parents) would need to see their children not heading to university unless it is for a serious degree such as medicine, law etc, and heading off instead to apprenticeships. That is beginning to happen but at a small scale. Seriously needs to be ramped up.

While we will attract some from abroad, even if there are serous challenges, where those people would actually live?, we have to also look to within. When I see councils though downsizing the number of new homes in their areas, I have to be concerned that despite all the grandstanding there is very little government and state enthusiasm, or perhaps there is state enthusiasm, it is just some elements of the state who want to retain the status quo/a perennial demand for housing, which thus keeps prices up?

Villa05

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171420#Comment_121171420

Timothy Geithner (Obama's treasury secretary), the ECB and the Irish Gov insisted on paying back bondholders in full as the Irish government had signed us all up to that path. The UK the IMF, Vincent Browne and the village of Ballyhea in North Cork argued for relief

If you want to know what dread is, try an ffg government with eye-watering national debt and a blank cheque book pumping a property bubble. The day the IMF left was a sorry day for Irish people, in particular the generations to come.

Is that context enough for you?

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121168566#Comment_121168566

Yeah costs are up but there are numerous reports stating that we have enough labour in construction with the slow down on the commercial side to build its our planning that is the huge issue. If only there was a body that could alleviate this - ye know someone like the state/government funny how they can get involved really hands on when things like Covid was an issue there is just not the same sense of urgency with regards to housing. The other side is they are making incredibly short sighted decisions that are upping the prices of property like upping the income ratios and now they are looking at using some of the below listed schemes for 2nd hand homes this is going to push price up and up and up. I mean how many billions are they thrown at things like FTB grants, HTB schemes, Rent credits, HAP, Local Authority Purchase Scheme, First Home Scheme, Local Authority Home Loan Scheme, Cost Rental Schemes, Mortgage to Rents schemes, Vacant Property Refurbishment schemes, Ready to build schemes. Throw in the renting of properties from the REITS for very high rents for very long periods of times and they are doused in cash not only if they were to stop all of the above but they are projected to have 50Billion due to corpo tax alone over the next 5 years. So costs should not be an issue.

So they could if the will was there turn to modular homes cheaper and quicker using the billions outlaid from all of the above schemes. As far as I can see the above schemes push property prices up for everyone or benefit other interested parities such as banks and builders., they could allow banks repossess homes that are in default we are an anomaly in this regards and there are people out there who just wont pay the mortgage as they know they cant be evicted, they could also up the threshold for on vacant poverty tax say 10% so the people owning the property/site has 10 years to use it or pay the equivalence in tax. Yet I fear the construction industry, banks and other vested interests will not allow this happen. It beggars belief that they are looking at giving landlords a tax break as well. When you step back at this and look at it in the round it rather easy to see that our state does not want to see property prices falling I cant think of any other reasons for the way the situation has been handled.

fliball123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171453#Comment_121171453

Have they even been asked. You look at the likes of Oz or Dubai they are actively out recruiting our teachers, guards and nurses has anyone on our side gone and asked the question in other countries with a decent offer? I don't think they have. The one contradiction in your argument is we have a nett migration of people coming into the country (so we cannot be the sh1thole you paint us out to be) surely this inflow needs to be streamlined and people with skills that match our shortages should be welcomed with open arms and have them using their skills and those who offer naught and will be sitting on the dole for years or without any valid papers should be told to go back home. Also labourers wages are actually quite high here at the minute. I mean the gov can house every Tom, Dick Harrokavich who needs housing, could there not be a scheme of free housing for builders coming in from a different country for say 3-5 years who come to work here get them building enough modular homes to meet the current demand - problem solved it may cost money but we have a50Billion windfall in corpo tax coming over the next 5 years.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171498#Comment_121171498

Yes, but those families, and the families of people already in the trades, were seriously burned in 2008 and the 6 years after. No wonder no one wants to get into trades now, even with the high wages they're getting.

Add in the physical toll of 30+ years of manual labour which will see that few tradespeople are capable of working to retirement age, and easy, well paid jobs with benefits are available in factories and MNCs.

Why anyone would choose to be a builder now is beyond me.

Padre_Pio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121172183#Comment_121172183

Ireland is not a sh*thole. Far from it, its an excellent country if you own a house and have your health, and the net migration we have is not for construction

And yes, the Irish govt has promoted Ireland abroad and gotten a poor response.

They have an action plan here https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/268017/df0ab549-7e67-48e4-b551-ad6eb59048bc.pdf#page=null

The gist is that Ireland needs 50k builders and no one wants to do it.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121170009#Comment_121170009

Lol I get all that but I think you’re the one missing the point.. if total supply doesn’t increase it just means more social housing and less private housing built. Social housing tenants renting in private housing is not going to free up private housing because emergency accommodation is full and as a result the private housing will still be occupied by social tenants.

yes if there was enough social housing built it would make a difference but that would need to be in addition to what is already being built (I.e. increase total supply). It’s not that hard to get your head around

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121171295#Comment_121171295

Are the issues not present today with full employment?