Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I dont see how it could be zero sum myself. Suppose it depends what way you want to filter your view of the situation to suit your own story.

My filter tells me that 1 property housed 7 people. By the time we all find new places, which will hopefully be sooner rather than later. It will then be 4 other properties housing those same 7 people. One property back on the market. Four taken off the market. To do the same job of housing 7 people. Well technically at the moment its looking like it will take so long that there will be one baby extra and one wife extra by the time.

Maybe that house being sold will again house 7 people, but I doubt it. No landlord would buy it now. He was renting it to us as a favor for €200 per month per person because he wanted to help us out. Now im guessing the rent will be stuck at that as its in an RPZ and no way to increase the rent for a new buyer if they wanted to rent it out.

Not everyone who buys a property comes from the rental market. Anyone who lives at home with parents, people arriving from abroad, people moving out of homeless accommodation into social housing. That's just 3 examples off the top of my head of people who might buy off a landlord who won't be coming from the rental market.

As has been pointed out owner occupied properties have lower levels of occupancy compared to rented. Landlords value income where as once an owner occupier can finance the mortgage they value comfort and don't want their house full of random house mates.

if the owners move back into the house, 7 or 8 renters have been tipped out of the property and the 2 people moving in dont live in ireland anyway.

So as far as todays resident population is concerned, 7 or 8 people have been evicted and the house they left has disappeared.

Dissapeared in that it no longer houses anyone currently resident in the country.

You haven't addressed my point about people living a home, coming from abroad, moving out of homeless accommodation. None of these groups are part of the current rental market. So if they buy a house from a landlord there are no housing spaces being freed up. This refutes your point that landlords selling is 0 sum game.

Even in the existing rental market you have a lot of house shares. Say you have 4 people sharing a house. One person moves out and buys a 2 bed sold by a landlord. Let's say this 2 bed held a family (2 adults plus 2 kids). In this situation the number of housing spots is down at least 2(assuming you count a couple as 1).

Even if you replace the single person with a couple until the couple have children the number housed in the 2 bed won't come back up for a few years until the couple have kids. Either way none of this helps the family that are now potentially homeless.

The fact is owner occupied housing had lower levels of occupancy compared to rented accommodation. That's a well established fact.

You do realise 7 is higher than 2 right? Even if the above only happened 100 times that's a loss of 500 bed spaces from the rental market.

the owners are a couple that live in Canada.

No, there is a couple still in it and they are overholding.

The owner cant get them out.

Its all in the Posters description of events.

Which do you think is more likely to happen?

Anyone holding long Bonds made a big bet that rates would fall with either interest rate cuts or QE. That’s one big bet when rates were on the floor. To put it simple terms it’s the equivalent of mortgaging your house and then putting all the money on a bet that Uruguay would beat the all blacks tonight.

The only exception is people holding long bonds for regulatory purposes where they are required to do so. And if they haven’t hedged the interest rate risk then they deserve to be burned because yet again the made a big risky bet that rates wouldn’t rise and thought they could save by not paying for the hedge. Yet again in layman terms the equivalent of buying a new boat and not insuring it despite the weather forecast predicting a storm.

The last point and probably the most important when comparing it to the impact of the GFC is who owns most of long bonds in circulation and how will any losses they have impact the real economy.

Seeing as we just undertook the largest QE ever seen where central banks bought long bonds in exchange for cash/call money. It s safe to say that central banks will take the biggest hit which will never make its way into the real economy. So comparing to shareholders losses in the GFC is pointless and is nothing more than click bat.

Not to sure if this is just you saying this or if something David McWilliams is using to increase viewers so he can get paid advertising. Let’s not forget that this is the so called expert that advised the government to right a blank cheque to the banks and made the whole mess 1m times worse as it created runs on banks in other countries as they piled into Irish banks thanks to this blank cheque.

He didnt kick a pregnant woman out of his house. He is getting married, living his new life in his new country and is selling his assets in Ireland so that he can get on with his new life with his new wife.

We were all renting and got more than the required notice. We dont blame him for wanting to get on with his own life at all. Its not his fault that he has to sell his house in Ireland.

AIB August Property Report has a different tune than before:

"The last time prices fell for this length of time was late 2011"

"Looking ahead, the rising interest rates environment will likely continue to act as a headwind to homebuyer activity and exert some further downward pressure on prices"

The report states that we need 30,000 units per year of new homes that we are meeting. I thought that went up? They do say that there is a backlog and that's why it isn't enough right now.

Of course he is a typical vulture LL. He had emigrated and was probably unsure if he would stay abroad and make his new life there so he rented his house to a group of people he knew.

From the look of it he rented it at about 50% of the market value. Of course there was no blame on the idiot and his gf that got pregnant in shared accommodation. If he had not decided to sell that couple would have to move out anyway as shared accommodation is unsuitable for a family.

He also gave them substantial notice it seems. As everything in the private rental sector no good deed goes unpunished. Your post shows your lack of understanding and is a completely blind attitude as well it the reason LL leave the sector

I would say that scenario is comparatively rare in practice.

Well at least the tenants get to keep their home.

+1

Every rental I've ever lived in had 0 spare rooms. When renting, leaving a room empty costs you money, almost always look for someone to fill. And on top of that, privately rented student homes typically had 2 beds in most bedrooms - when landlords sell a student rental the occupancy rates plummet in comparison