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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 863 ✭✭✭Zenify


    AIB August Property Report has a different tune than before:

    "The last time prices fell for this length of time was late 2011"

    "Looking ahead, the rising interest rates environment will likely continue to act as a headwind to homebuyer activity and exert some further downward pressure on prices"

    The report states that we need 30,000 units per year of new homes that we are meeting. I thought that went up? They do say that there is a backlog and that's why it isn't enough right now.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    Going to be some car crash when interest rates start coming down too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Of course he is a typical vulture LL. He had emigrated and was probably unsure if he would stay abroad and make his new life there so he rented his house to a group of people he knew.

    From the look of it he rented it at about 50% of the market value. Of course there was no blame on the idiot and his gf that got pregnant in shared accommodation. If he had not decided to sell that couple would have to move out anyway as shared accommodation is unsuitable for a family.

    He also gave them substantial notice it seems. As everything in the private rental sector no good deed goes unpunished. Your post shows your lack of understanding and is a completely blind attitude as well it the reason LL leave the sector

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    I think 30k does not count the supply needed to make up on previous years of shortfall.

    Something like 50k is needed to meet demand.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    I would say that scenario is comparatively rare in practice.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    As someone who is looking at houses for the last while im seeing a lot of similar properties. ex rentals and even some with tenants still in them.

    I dont think its rare at all. Clearly a lot of rentals are being sold around where im looking anyway. The EA even told me for one viewing I was trying to arrange that the vendor had just put it on the market to get some bids in but they were probably going to sell to the council in the end as the tenants didnt want to move out. Practically told me I was wasting my time going to see it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    Well at least the tenants get to keep their home.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Ten years ago it was not unusual for a couple to rent a two bed apartment/ house before moving into buy. Nowadays they rent one bed apartment. If a one bed is sold it's a single person moving in there virtually never a couple.

    If a two bed is sold it's a single person or a couple who are not planning on having children. Most two beds are now rented to small families units, couple with 1-2 children or a lone parent with two children.

    In 90% of situation's where a LL sells if the house goes to an owner occupier the residential footprint number will drop by 40-50% on average.

    As well all my children rented at some stage in every house they were in every bed room was occupied. There was never more than two common rooms ( kitchen and sitting rooms) if there was a third common room or a home office it was used as a bed room. It was the same 40 years ago when I rented except double bed room where two single beds fitted were shared

    These situations are very common

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    +1

    Every rental I've ever lived in had 0 spare rooms. When renting, leaving a room empty costs you money, almost always look for someone to fill. And on top of that, privately rented student homes typically had 2 beds in most bedrooms - when landlords sell a student rental the occupancy rates plummet in comparison



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,559 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    I was responding to what I thought was an exaggerated example of seven or eight tenants being removed in order to house a couple. I would still maintain that this example is fairly rare.

    I can understand some reduction in occupancy. A couple may purchase a property with a view to starting a family and for period of time will have unoccupied rooms until they fill them with offspring. But this is necessary and understandable. It is not, after all, about cramming as many people as possible into as few rooms as possible. The fact that some landlords do this does not make it right.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,096 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    This situation is arguably the norm. Given the current rental prices its far cheaper to rent a room. Realistically it's very hard for most people to rent their own place and then buy. The cost versus income doesn't make financial sense. People will rent a room just to save money to get a deposit.

    A lot of house shares these days have more in common with bed sits especially in situations where house mates don't have pre existing relationships/friendships. Basically people rent a room and aside from that you just have the bare minimum of a common room and kitchen. Every other room will be converted into a bedroom. They are just bedsits under a different name.

    However when landlords renting these places sell to an owner occupier, the owner occupier will not tolerate the previous occupancy levels unless they are financially desperate. So while these house shares are not ideal what's even worse for the rental market is these houses being sold.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    I was renting in two houses in the past 10 years, both were sold and both were rented by a number of adults at least equal to the number of bedrooms. 3 adults in the first, 4 in the second.

    All my friends were in similar situations. Now I own a house, 4 bedrooms, 2 adults living in 1 room and I've no wish or need to take in a tenant.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    "a terrible war imposed by the provisional IRA"

    Our West Brit Taoiseach



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,457 ✭✭✭SharkMX


    The one I was in that I was talking about had 1 couple and 3 single people when we moved in first. 2 ended up moving their girlfriends in a few months down the line when the landlord said that was ok with him.

    To sometimes in rentals you get extra people moving in. Same can happen for single people owning houses too, but its probably much rarer these days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,699 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    For me the difference is that no tenant will treat your own house with the same care that you do. It would bug me to see someone being messy or careless with appliances and furniture, so there's no chance of renting out rooms to anyone, even if i knew we would get on well.


    In a rental, no one in the house really cares if the floors get scratched, or someone puts a hole in the couch,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    But yet the council dont house social tenants in house shares, which would dramatically clear down the waiting lists, if not eliminate them altogether.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,096 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    Ye but I'd argue a lot of people are clueless about the reality of house shares in the current market. We've seen some of this on the thread when it comes to the numbers of people in rented accommodation versus owner occupied.

    There are more practical issues as well, unless it's a council owned house, I imagine it would be hard to convince existing landlords and tenants to take some one from the social housing list. When you put a group of random people in a house living together interpersonal relations can be hard at the best of times. If there are issues with the person/people from the council it would just add another layer of complication on an already delicate situation.

    In terms of using council houses for house shares it's a good idea in the short-term. But its short-term, the reality is that house shares are not really suitable for the long term. Even if that's the reality for a lot of people now unfortunately. I imagine there would be significant push back against this idea politically. The council would also have to get involved in situations where house mates fell out. I doubt they want to deal with this hassle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    All fair point and I agree that it wouldnt be a politically popular deision.

    But its a perfectly legal practice and is commonplace for every other cohort in society. Students, working professionals, people who have seperated from their partner and so forth.

    It doesnt make sense that social tenants should be insulated from this reality, when its a loved experience for those that pay their own way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    The only way the Council could do it is to make it voluntary. If 2-3 single people are on the housing list give them.the option of combining there request for social housing. While not all wound opt for it a few nights fit got them up the priority list

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 475 ✭✭delusiondestroyer


    What do people think, will property get cheaper outside dublin? Or would it be better to just pull the trigger and buy now? will the interest rates drop from 5% would there be any point in fixing at 5% or just go with variable?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Demand is nationwide. There is still property for sake that is below the cost of construction in places.

    Looking at bonkers mortgage comparison site green mortgages @90,%LTV are available at about 3.75% and BOI seem to be doing a standard loan for 3.95% four year fixed. Those rates take a lot of risk out for FTB.

    A couple of us here early when rates started to rise pointed out that Irish rates might not increase substantial because of the high levels Irish savings. Rates are only 1.5-1.8% above pre interest rate increases

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 475 ✭✭delusiondestroyer


    Do you think the 5% interest rates will last? or that they'll get higher?

    I think something has to give the current state of the country isnt sustainable.

    The utter state of houses down the country priced at 200k and above is utter insanity alot of em would require 100k in modernization if they by chance were got for there asking price its madness really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Rent allowance accommodated house shares, does HAP not do the same



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 863 ✭✭✭Zenify


    I don't think bonkers has up to date figures. I could be wrong. Anyone with a current offer like to share the rate?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,856 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Only If people request it. They should be offered it and if refused, to the back of the list you go.

    People shouldnt be offered own home accom on the social unless they have kids of school age or a genuine need to live alone.

    The numbers on the waiting list would soon diminish if they house shared like everyone else in society.

    Heck, some folks might even get a job so that they can afford their own place!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,927 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    I have heard this before I have not seen anything to contradict there rates. I have quoted them before.

    They are a snapshot in time. O doubt if you went in on Monday morning that you would be quoted 0.25% more.

    Who has quoted you 5% or more on a standard mortgage either variable or fixed

    Please show the rates

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 475 ✭✭delusiondestroyer


    Bank of Ireland are up at 4.75% and aib are more or less the same from what I'm seeing. The 3.75% is a green mortgage only for houses with a b rating and up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,462 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Need to be borrowing more than 250k to avail of the 3.95 for 4 years with BOI.

    I'd presume most Dublin FTB would be.

    No cashback deal on it either.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    McWilliams in today's IT predicting monumental collapse in the commercial property market.

    When taken together – changes in lifestyle and increased working from home, an endemic structural over-supply and lack of immediate demand, the whiplash in interest rates requiring heavily leveraged investors to sell, and the impact of much higher refinancing costs – we have the conditions for a perfect storm leading to commercial property meltdown.

    Here we go again. Strap in tight.




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