Russia - threadbanned users in OP

There's nothing stopping it from happening other the the lack of wanting to do it by the international community,at one stage we had the french carrier de Gaul off the coast of Romania,that could have given air over for any shipping in the area ,they could easily set up a naval escort to protect all shipping coming from Ukraine,but there is no Will to actually get involved, we've been watching ships full of stolen grain sail from the black sea to the Mediterranean and offload the stolen grain to other vessels who in turn sail to Russian friendly ports ,and none of them get stopped or prevented from carrying stolen grain,but yet Russia Decides what and when grain is allowed to leave,

Makes zero sense

The only place Russian ships could half-way justifiably attack Turkish ships would be at the point where they enter Russian/Russian-claimed territorial waters, or Ukrainian waters, but most of the waters on the western edge of the Black Sea are either Romanian, Bulgarian or Turkish, and the other part Ukrainian. Whatever intervention that Russia could make on Ukrainian shipping would have to be done by Russia in the red arrow length above. I don't think they have the balls to touch Ukrainian shipping anywhere else. Certainly not under the protection of military escort.

Whilst I agree with you insofar as that the Russians wouldn't make any overt moves, I am concerned that they might attempt to use their submarines to go after the freighters. Modern wire-guided torpedoes have quite a large range and the sonar signatures of freighters and modern warships are different enough that any torpedoes should be able to distinguish between the two of them. They probably wouldn't have any difficulties in convincing their loyal followers abroad that these explosions that sank the freighters were actually caused by Ukrainian mines. It would be so obvious that even Stevie Wonder could see through it, but I can just see them being crazy enough to try that. Don't forget that Russian forces attacked neutral shipping in the black sea in the opening stages of the 2022 war.

I'm not saying that the west should cut or stop sending arms to Ukraine. Im saying there needs to be an honest assessment of what arms the Ukranians can expect in a timely fashion, and discussions as to what looks likely, that there is not going to be nearly enough sent to enable Ukraine to drive Russians from their land including Crimea. So if this is the case then the question of negotiations has to be brought up as an option for the future.

What would I like to see happen?

I would like to see the gloves come off, and far more longer range precision weapons, drones, tanks ect. The question of training and supply of F16's should have been on the agenda well before now, and every effort should have been made to supply as much air power as possible. These announcements being made now smack of far too little too late.

I think the west has done enough in regards to helping Ukraine defend what they have been able to so far. But I do not believe they are, or will get enough support to take back all their territory. Thats my thinking on it, I would love to be proved wrong, but I just can't see it.

How far can Russia go with the whole 'grey zone' thing, really? If they could hit a ship with a torpedo and say it wasn't them, despite whatever traces a torpedo leaves pointing to the contrary, then what's to stop them claiming anything and everything?

"We didn't strike that U.S. carrier. It was hit by a meteor. It was hit by a stray Ukrainian missile. It was faulty."

Russia can deny whatever it wants, but objective reality lives beyond the picture that their words try to paint. We can't live in a world where Russian culpability rests on Russia admitting to their culpability, because that's a game they're not going to play, and they've been laughing at the West for our impotent indignation while they commit outrages that they deny a hand in. Who'd have known it'd be that simple to get away with things, or just not face any big retaliation?

The thing with modern torpedoes is that they are nowhere near as obvious as a missile. This isn't World War 2 anymore, where you have a "fish" travel relatively close to the surface and leave a clear trail of bubbles that can allow you to get a visual fix on the launch point. Pretty much all modern submarine torpedoes are wire guided and can be remote-controlled from their parent submarine. In addition, from my understanding, a lot of these torpedoes don't need to be forced out of their tubes by pressurized air anymore. It still happens, but with modern torpedoes, it is also possible to just flood the tube, open the outer doors and then effectively "float" the torpedo out. It can then be manually steered into position at low speed, and only become active once it reaches its final attack position. By the time the submarine cuts the guidance wires and weapon goes active and accelerates to a speed where it's obvious on sonar, it might well be ten to fifteen kilometers away from its launch position, potentially even on a different bearing. Given the existence of systems such as the US Mk. 60 CAPTOR mine, which is basically a Mk. 46 Torpedo in a special underwater launch capsule, this would give Russia all the plausible deniability it needs to keep the countries in the developing world on their side and make the West/Ukraine look like the bad guys.

Well that's a different way of putting it. Yes I think giving Ukraine a clear timetable for what military assistance they can rely on would be useful logically and help them to make the best calculations. Maybe that is happening behind the scenes but also it may suit all parties, both Ukraine and those states supplying munitions and equipment, if there's a fog of war on the exact nature of the practicalities. Russians have intelligence operands as well and keeping them confused and guessing is no bad thing.

It's not a response from NATO they'd fear it's losing face in Africa where people would starve when they don't get their grain.

Russian assets will not be returned

Looks like RU is preparing a massive counter attack in Lyman - Kupyansk:

Saw that, not so sure about it though, it’s two days old that news and it has been retweeted all over from one source.

Surely a concentrated group would warrant a few storm shadows being launched?

The Ukranians appear to be saying themselves that a major Russian offensive has begun but there's little to go on yet.

You'd have to presume there is some truth to it. If the numbers of personell and weaponry being cited is remotely true, and I'd be sceptical it would be that extreme, then it's a very serious development in the war.