FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

There is a strong sense of inevitability about a cold spell during the first half of March. The indications for the December cold spell were there 2-3 weeks in advance and I feel it is the same here. If there is a second warming and subsequent displacement event over the Pole next weekend, as is currently suggested, then spring could be put on hold for some time. Not great for farmers (lambing season underway), gardeners, and partly clad St Patrick's Day parade participants if it does materialise.

There is a real good chance that we'll see a classic retrogression later in the month into March. It could be a case of the MJO imprint finally being realised and the secondary SSW is only feeding into this. The secondary SSW looks to be critical and would have struggled to produce much without it despite all the kicking and screaming the polar vortex has suffered since January. The GFS shows successful downward propagation of the warming into March with a -AO being predicted at all levels.

What does this mean? There is a high chance of cold weather on the way in March and how cold it gets will be dependent on how this blocking develops. Lots to watch. If you're a mild lover hoping for early spring, look away it's a grim outlook as the legend McCaskill used to say.

Yes, that looks to be the case according to Simon Lee:

The synoptics of this March id say might resemble the first week or 2 of 2006 . Greenland high. More in the way of northerlies then easterlies. A northerly version of 2013??

Ya looking at GFS looks like we're in the freezer but what does the more reliable ECM say. I don't really bother with GFS anymore since it's always wrong and really only art.

Latest EC46 shows just this. BL+ = Scandinavian high and NAO- = higher pressure around Iceland/Greenland. The retrogression is very clear here. This goes onto producing a very blocked, cold March. Still nothing too crazy showing in the more medium range output aside from crazy GFS outliers such as that 0z and 18z yesterday but that's to be expected as the window of expected effects is beyond the capabilities of the modelling. Don't be surprised to see delays but somewhere is going to get a notably cold March. Whether that's Ireland or not waits to be seen.

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Here go. 192 hrs plus

And this is the ensembles mean 192+

Think he asked for ECM Wolfie as Nacho posted something from the ECM suite for out to +336hrs being 6 March. I'd be curious too.

Edit - I see Konman has pasted above, had no idea that existed

The GFuselesS shows it getting milder at the end of its run this morning.

Yeah, but the great thing about the GFS is there will be another run available in a few minutes probably showing snowmaggedon again....

The problem is Gonzo we have for a few days now seen that we are relying on the second warming to bring about colder conditions in the trop. So the second week of March onwards looks like the time we will see colder weather, if at all. The UKMO long range are now talking about the possibility of disruptive wintry weather further on in March. Also there is a strong signal on the EC46 for a Greenland high sometime around Mid March. This is no guarantee we will get a direct hit, but there is a chance. Of course it would be better if this was happening even a month ago, but its a long time till next winter so I will take snow in March. Something like last nights ECM control will do nicely !

Saw somebody on about winter tyres for the incoming cold spell just now, so I knew it was probably a busted flush, came here for confirmation.

The problem is the media pick the juiciest chart they can find and run with it and most people don't realise it's just one of many possible outcomes being modelled.

Yes indeed and the GEM shows a remarkably similar profile at 240H.