Russian build up along Ukraine

Any Government has to balance military capabilities with domestic concerns (ie industries), not buying Typhoons then meant the end of the domestic capability to build Fighters, while also paying the States for fighters. It’s been the same argument since WW2 for most of the European nations, also the reason why the European defence industry is still so splintered and repetitive.

How exactly would Russia do that? Lets not be jumping at shadows, this war has proved their capabilities are fall less than what they have been doing PR with.

As to the UK, it's not just the industrial base, it's also the r&d infrastructure for development, hence why the UK is pushing their Tempest as a Next Gen fighter (and the French and Germans are trying to agree their project), and why BAe managed a by in for the F35 project. Just look at the saga of UK procurement during the Cold War. It's nothing new, through out the Cold War you had either projects built to sustain domestic capabilities (ie the French) or at the very least licenced production for "smaller" countries/militaries (Netherlands, Greece etc), it's no different than the US spreading procurement of their fighters/bombers across all 50 states to buy political votes.

As for NATO being serious about enlarging European militaries, that doesn't override domestic politics, so all the European nations combined will still have duplication left, right and center so as to keep domestic employment and tax bases going (ie multiple SSK designs, multiple armour projects, 2-3 Next Gen fighter projects, etc etc). You aren't going to last in a Government if you declare that you are going to shut a local industry and move it all to another country, that's simple politics

I’d disagree about air superiority, they are mostly staying over their own areas, you aren’t seeing them try interdiction flights against deep areas in Ukraine for example, and their own air assets are flying at the same height due to SAMs as well. And yes HARMs have been macgyvered onto MIG 29s from some of the footage they have showed and some examples of damaged Russian hardware. Of course the Russian bombers are staying deep in Russian territory (which isn’t exactly an offensive position) but their strikes have been massively wasteful for most of the time, and that SAM system has been proven vulnerable with Russia losing Strategic bombers to drone strikes deep within Russia, hell it’s not normal to set up short range SAMS on capital buildings if you are confident of your defences.

The Russian Army is beyond scrapping the bottom of the barrel in both quality of manpower and equipment effectively at this stage and will have massive long term impacts for Russia anyway. As for the Navy, yeah losing a warship to a nation that effectively doesn’t have a navy isn’t great for anyone, but in reality it’s ability to affect the war is limited and it’s global abilities the same when compared to major Western or Asian Navies.

And above all else, we aren’t talking about the hammering in Ukraine, we are talking about the (crazy imo) suggestion that somehow while they are fully committed to an utter meatgrinder that they could have the ability to engage in open warfare with the collective might of NATO… That’s not going to happen. It’s as likely as the floated suggestion back in the summer that they were preparing for conflict with Japan over their disputed areas.

Outside of nukes what exactly have they been holding back? They’ve stripped units and equipment from everywhere from the Chinese border to the Kalingrad to maintain operations and that’s with two rounds of mobilisation to try and boost numbers as well. This “Russia is holding back” is no different than the tankies proclaiming that Putin ordered retreats as signs of good will…

They have burned through their MBT stocks, they’ve burned through their special forces, they have lost a measurable faction of their helicopter fleet, they have lost irreplaceable ships and planes, and that’s not even touching the demographic and economic damage they have done to themselves, but you are arguing that they have capacity to try anything in widening this war?

Of course NATO is keeping their forces forward deployed, the Baltic’s in particular have no depth or capability to defend themselves, and Vlad hasn’t been slow in threatening them but likewise Russia has no capacity to enlarge this war. It’s telling that when Sweden and Finland announced their intention to join NATO there was barely a whimper from Moscow compared to preinvasion sabre rattling.

This all has the real feeling of a building crescendo...like the World is just tipping towards a point where something real bad could kick it all off.