Russian build up along Ukraine

Psychlops

Just what are they up to, they gave no notice, The US asked them & they only today just said it is an exercise. I dont trust them.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html

sparky42

They have sent a lot of hardware to the border, much I think than they have been doing since the war broke out, testing to see what Biden might do? Distracting from something domestic again?

blindsider

Weather's improving - sun is higher in the sky....campaign season is almost upon us and The Bear is coming out of hibernation!

Western Europe (in general) seems to care little about what goes on 'over there' - ah shur...that's nothing to do with us!


Oh, and by the way...those minor law changes that were voted in last July...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53255964

Guess whose 'power-base' has suddenly extended?

Smiles35

From what I'm reading, it's not a huge move, 2000 men. And an artillery exchange that lasted a day when they usually last an hour. So this seems to be over reported.

blindsider wrote: »

Weather's improving - sun is higher in the sky....campaign season is almost upon us and The Bear is coming out of hibernation!

That gave us all a huge fright, that year they moved on Crimea.

Psychlops

I dont know what to read into this, the US asked about it as it wasnt planned movements, some guy on Twitter I read in his page ( I forget who he is ) but he said if the Russians were planning to attack they would have moved fast already & they would have used Artillery first to soften the ground for Infantry to move in.

scotchy

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778

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Psychlops

scotchy wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778

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Madness.

blindsider

On Twitter, GorseFiresCollectif and Andy Scollick seem to be knowledgeable and fairly anti Putin. (=Free press/slightly west-leaning neutral.)

They are both suggesting that the situation in Ukraine is anything but 'minor'......

Piollaire

Russia are promoting the narrative that they will invade Ukraine if the Ukrainians don't turn the water back on to the Crimea.

https://www.rt.com/russia/518514-ukraine-invaded-water-supply/

Psychlops

That was spoken about on Twitter, if thats the case just give them the water & be done with it.

Larbre34

Psychlops wrote: »

That was spoken about on Twitter, if thats the case just give them the water & be done with it.

And how does that help to eject Russia from their illegal annexation of the Crimean penisula.

The West must back Ukraine unstintingly in its fight for territorial integrity against the rotten corrupt cess pit that is the Russian Federation under Putin.

Putin relies on the reticence of the West to put him on his arse. He should be disabused of that notion.

Psychlops

Larbre34 wrote: »

And how does that help to eject Russia from their illegal annexation of the Crimean penisula.

The West must back Ukraine unstintingly in its fight for territorial integrity against the rotten corrupt cess pit that is the Russian Federation under Putin.

Putin relies on the reticence of the West to put him on his arse. He should be disabused of that notion.

Well if it stops an escalation I am all for it.

Larbre34

Quite right Dohvolle.

The only thing Putin will respond to, is an escalation. He's posturing now, but his equipment is knackered and his supplies cannot sustain a serious engagement.

As soon as he steps foot inside of Ukraine's current eastern border, NATO should lay waste to his forces.

zom

Dohvolle wrote: »

It wont.
Russian state sponsored media saying things like "Russians in Ukraine need to be protected" and "there is no Ukraine, just Nazi supporting rats".

Any idea why they were waiting 5 years?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War

Larbre34

President Zelensky made a direct appeal to the NATO Sec Gen today to fast track his nation's accession process to that organisation. Not to make them a member immediately, but to hasten the steps in the process to demonstrate a clear policy and solidarity with the democratic nations of Europe.

Have to hand it to him, its a good way to see the colour of NATOs money. Either they're serious and they'll back him, or they aren't and NATO is a golf club with a nice members bar in Brussels.

As a side issue, it'll be pretty juicy to see what Hungary does about it, as it will put Viktor Orban at odds with Putin, where he doesn't really want to be. Ditto Poland, albeit to a lesser extent.

Larbre34

Dohvolle wrote: »

The conflict did not stop, it is just moving to the next phase. Word is Putin is unwell, and this may be his big moment to make his name for eternity, before his illness sees him physically decline and withdraw from view, like so many former soviet leaders did before.

Yeah a lot of chat about that the last 6 months. Was it Parkinsons or Alzheimers that was mentioned?

standardg60

Psychlops wrote: »

Well if it stops an escalation I am all for it.

Peace in our time, yep that works.

Psychlops

Dohvolle wrote: »

Parkinsons.
We don't need another world leader with Alzheimers.

You see he signed a law allowing him to stay in Power?


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/05/vladimir-putin-passes-law-that-may-keep-him-in-office-until-2036

Sierra Oscar

Build up continuing throughout the week.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1380219465724493825

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1380069652584230914

Larbre34

Exercise my hool.

Sierra Oscar

The military buildup has been continuing throughout the weekend. Russian spokespeople not even trying to claim it is military exercises anymore. Currently believed to be 85,000 Russian soldiers positioned on the Ukrainian border.

Initially I thought the Russian military was putting pressure on Ukrainian Government to alleviate the water blockade in Crimea. Now I wouldn't be surprised if there is the possibility of Russian forces annexing the territories held by separatists entirely. Precursor to this would be a request by the Government's of DPR and and LPR for intervention.

The Ukrainian Government have been saying they have military intelligence to suggest that the Russian Government is undertaking a massive military buildup that will continue throughout April culminating in a large scale invasion next month. I think everyone is highly skeptical of that, but if this military buildup continues in the weeks ahead then tensions will significantly increase. Of course that is probably what Russia wants, again the end goal may be to use a crisis to secure concessions on energy and water supplies. However this military buildup is a significant one and won't come cheap for the Russian Government. They want to get something significant out of it.

On Ukraine’s doorstep, Russia boosts military and sends message of regional clout to Biden

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1381242708359061507

Psychlops

Consequences will be heavy sanctions.

Larbre34

By now the West mustn't have many sanctions left in the locker to impose....

scotchy

Quick guide to Russia-Ukraine military tensions


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589



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Psychlops

Well this is most welcome news, honestly speaking I firmly believe we have stepped back from an actual brink of something, I wonder did they have a war of words via their video conference today on Climate change.


Either way this is great news, nobody would win a conflict like this.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56842763

Muahahaha

Royal Navy shadowed by Russian coastguard today along with 20 fighter jets on radar and a Russian war ship in the distance. Threats were made to them to change their course or shots would be fired, which they were but not on target. There was a BBC journalist on board with a camera crew who got footage of the reaction on the bridge and a fighter jet flying close by
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57583363

Muahahaha

Dohvolle wrote: »

The MOD statement is at odds with this version of events

Yeah I know, it is stated in the article I linked. MOD is saying no warning shots were fired but the journalists on board arent agreeing with them with one of them reporting cannon fire from a Russian coastguard vessel and the Commander said the same

The latest incident saw more than 50 interactions with Russian aircraft recorded by Defender in a few hours. Commander Owen told the Mail: 'That is the closest I have come to a Russian vessel in my 21-year career. I suspect the gunfire was from one of the coastguard vehicles.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9718661/Read-dramatic-eyewitness-report-Vladimir-Putin-gunboat-opens-fire.html

MOD claim is that the Russians were performing gunnery exercises in the distance and thats the shots that were fired. But one of the journalists has a source in the UK govt who said they are trying to play down the incident.

Downing Street insisted Defender was taking the 'most direct' route from Ukraine to Georgia along an 'internationally recognised travel corridor' and was not subject to warning shots fired by Russia. A source acknowledged the Government was playing down the incident to deny Moscow the row it is seeking.

Larbre34

The Russians look like chumps as usual.

Russia: We dropped bombs and fired warning shots in the vicinity of these aggressive NATO vessels!

UK: No you bloody didn't. You told us you'd be exercising in the area and we observed that.

Russia: Here is the footage! (aerial footage shows nothing but planes flying about and the RN Destroyer on targetting scanners and cameras.)

This is just more of the same crap we've seen before with Russian jets buzzing US warships while the USN carries on with its exercises.

I'd love to see one of the Russians loose the plot and let a bomb go on a NATO vessel in international waters and watch them get shredded by the NATO offensive weapons.

TheValeyard

Well, this seems like it's heating up.

Larbre34

I dunno. Its no warmer, really, than at any point in the 7 odd years of conflict. The sabre rattling has always ebbed and flowed.

Putin knows if he starts anything serious in Ukraine proper, it will inevitably draw the West into active participation and he will lose Crimea, the Donestk enclave and his natural gas income.

The cancellation of Nord Stream II by Germany certainly ratchets up the stakes, but it doesn't really alter the geopolitical reality on the ground.

What's interesting from an Irish perspective is the pan-European approach. I saw on the news earlier, the NATO Sec Gen Stolltenberg in the EU Commission building in Brussels, standing in front of a bank of EU flags, giving an interview following an EU Defence Minister's meeting as if he were speaking for both bodies. Bearing in mind Poland, Latvia and Lithuania have formally commenced a NATO Article 4 process, fearing for their territorial integrity.

Is the line between the European NATO members and the EU itself thinning even more? Where will Ireland stand in possible NATO military action in Belarus or Ukraine

roadmaster

The same place we stood on the cold war on the Fence. We allowed Nato use airspace and Aeroflot shannon

ZX7R

Belarus leader is forcing putin hand in a way.

Firstly threatening to cut the gas supply to Europe, this blind sided putin.

Today lukashenko requested putin to intervene in the Belarus problem by what ever means necessary.

Putin likes to flex his military muscle but he definitely doesn't want a direct military action with nato.

TheValeyard

There's a few things happening I think that may create a tense situation where somebody could do something stupid to escalate things. Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia. Different grievances for all, but all have Russian backing to an extent (separatists in Ukraine)

Larbre34

They do, but ZX is right, Putin won't let those elements create a scenario to bring him into direct conflict with NATO, none of them on their own are consequential enough to tip that balance. Its clear enough from Lukashenko's attitude in recent days that he got a spanking from Moscow for pushing his luck.

I also think its a bit rich of NATO to be demanding more from Ukraine in meeting improved governance objectives in order to join the Alliance, when they already include some very dodgy players like Bulgaria, Albania and turkey. NATO can't afford to continue their hypocrisy on that front, its just the sort of geopolitical vacuum that Putin loves to exploit.

Stovepipe

Maybe because Ukraine is so grossly corrupt and chockfull of Russian sympathisers anyway, that even NATO has to gag.

ZX7R

Ukraine is a funny one all right.

Nato is probably more worried that if they are a full member they might do something stupid in regards to Crimea.

Even Poland have stopped lobbying for there membership.

In a strange way both nato and putin are quite happy to leave Ukraine as it is kind of a buffer between the two.

A play area for putin In a way.

Looks like a full Ukraine invasion is looking likely. Hard to see how any modern, developed country could attack another. Putin will blame NATO for getting close to its borders, but that's a lame excuse.

The comparison of Hitler invading the Sudeten and Putin invading the Crimea is stark. Europe was wildly stupid to have allowed itself to be dependent on Russia for energy. Its borderline criminal.

Worrisome times ahead with January being suggested as when they will invade.

Larbre34

If NATO don't step in, they might as well disband. I mean whats the point when it's appeasement after appeasement.

Its pretty obvious that Russia intends to annex everything east of the Dnieper River and join up Donbass and the Crimea with surrounding regions to create a buffer between Russia proper and the NATO frontier. But after that, for NATO, where does it stop. Moldova left to its fate on their doorstep? Then the Baltics?

If the World doesn't come together to reunify the integrity of Ukraine, then they can really have no right to complain when their own borders and territoreis are threatened by the likes of China in the western Pacific.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118275279#Comment_118275279

Ukraine isn't in NATO though, you aren't going to get an intervention beyond diplomatic actions and most likely a reinforcement of the Eastern European nations. There's going to be increased pressure on the nations that aren't hitting the 2% mark.

TheValeyard

Hard to know which way this will go.

briany

Hard to think Russia would genuinely invade Ukraine. It wouldn't match the sly way their government has operated in recent years, what with using the troll armies online and claiming their soldiers were merely in Donbass on holiday. An invasion of Ukrainian by Russia would be heavily banking on the West doing nothing

If Russia does move to go into Ukraine, NATO forces should also go in, IF invited to do so by Kiev. Give cocky Putin a slap on his bald head.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118275407#Comment_118275407

Libya not being in NATO didn't stop NATO forces going there in 2011 after a UN security council resolution was passed to allow it. Ukraine is not in NATO but does have cooperation agreements with NATO. If NATO stands idly by while Russia moves in, then NATO isn't worth much.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568792#Comment_118568792

NATO or technically some of NATO launched operations in Libya, but that just highlights the issue. NATO is under no obligation to any nation that isn’t a member whether that’s Ukraine or Finland or Ireland. NATO might choose to involve itself either on a nation by nation approach or by something more coordinated but no NATO has no requirement to counter Russia if NATO chooses not to.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568802#Comment_118568802

I understand that NATO are not under a strict obligation to get involved with a non member but if it's willing to go into Libya, but does nothing if Russia were to invade, then it just shows NATO up as opportunistic rather than an alliance that can maintain global stability. It also makes mockery of the cooperation pact between Ukraine and NATO. Putin has to be shown some genuine pushback by the West at some point. He'll keep pushing and pushing otherwise.

Manic Moran

I think the word you're looking for is 'realpolitik.' Whatever the moral arguments, even if the moral arguments are the same for an involvement in Libya as in Ukraine, the reality is that the costs incurred by involving in Libya will be far less than involvement in Ukraine.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568893#Comment_118568893

There are costs to helping defend Ukraine, but there are potential costs to standing idly by if Russia do decide to roll in as well.

If we say that realpolitik is the way of the world, then we run the risk of appeasement up to the point that the problem can no longer be ignored and be forced to fight while cursing that preventative measures had not been taken.

I'm not advocating war but I do think that Putin should be made to realise, and his peoples made to realise, that he cannot just push his weight around. It wouldn't end at Ukraine if he moves in and the line will have to be drawn somewhere.

Psychlops

No friend of Ireland,

That new gear looks mighty fine right about now.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2022/0202/1277437-russia-letter-irish-govt/

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573616#Comment_118573616

New Gear on Back order, call back later...

Hobgoblin11

190,000 people on the Ukraine 🇺🇦 border up to no good

Psychlops

Genuinely scary, this came from nowhere too.

Psychlops

Next up, the Soviet flag will be raised again.