Russian build up along Ukraine

ZX7R

Belarus leader is forcing putin hand in a way.

Firstly threatening to cut the gas supply to Europe, this blind sided putin.

Today lukashenko requested putin to intervene in the Belarus problem by what ever means necessary.

Putin likes to flex his military muscle but he definitely doesn't want a direct military action with nato.

TheValeyard

There's a few things happening I think that may create a tense situation where somebody could do something stupid to escalate things. Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia. Different grievances for all, but all have Russian backing to an extent (separatists in Ukraine)

Larbre34

They do, but ZX is right, Putin won't let those elements create a scenario to bring him into direct conflict with NATO, none of them on their own are consequential enough to tip that balance. Its clear enough from Lukashenko's attitude in recent days that he got a spanking from Moscow for pushing his luck.

I also think its a bit rich of NATO to be demanding more from Ukraine in meeting improved governance objectives in order to join the Alliance, when they already include some very dodgy players like Bulgaria, Albania and turkey. NATO can't afford to continue their hypocrisy on that front, its just the sort of geopolitical vacuum that Putin loves to exploit.

Stovepipe

Maybe because Ukraine is so grossly corrupt and chockfull of Russian sympathisers anyway, that even NATO has to gag.

ZX7R

Ukraine is a funny one all right.

Nato is probably more worried that if they are a full member they might do something stupid in regards to Crimea.

Even Poland have stopped lobbying for there membership.

In a strange way both nato and putin are quite happy to leave Ukraine as it is kind of a buffer between the two.

A play area for putin In a way.

Looks like a full Ukraine invasion is looking likely. Hard to see how any modern, developed country could attack another. Putin will blame NATO for getting close to its borders, but that's a lame excuse.

The comparison of Hitler invading the Sudeten and Putin invading the Crimea is stark. Europe was wildly stupid to have allowed itself to be dependent on Russia for energy. Its borderline criminal.

Worrisome times ahead with January being suggested as when they will invade.

Larbre34

If NATO don't step in, they might as well disband. I mean whats the point when it's appeasement after appeasement.

Its pretty obvious that Russia intends to annex everything east of the Dnieper River and join up Donbass and the Crimea with surrounding regions to create a buffer between Russia proper and the NATO frontier. But after that, for NATO, where does it stop. Moldova left to its fate on their doorstep? Then the Baltics?

If the World doesn't come together to reunify the integrity of Ukraine, then they can really have no right to complain when their own borders and territoreis are threatened by the likes of China in the western Pacific.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118275279#Comment_118275279

Ukraine isn't in NATO though, you aren't going to get an intervention beyond diplomatic actions and most likely a reinforcement of the Eastern European nations. There's going to be increased pressure on the nations that aren't hitting the 2% mark.

TheValeyard

Hard to know which way this will go.

briany

Hard to think Russia would genuinely invade Ukraine. It wouldn't match the sly way their government has operated in recent years, what with using the troll armies online and claiming their soldiers were merely in Donbass on holiday. An invasion of Ukrainian by Russia would be heavily banking on the West doing nothing

If Russia does move to go into Ukraine, NATO forces should also go in, IF invited to do so by Kiev. Give cocky Putin a slap on his bald head.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118275407#Comment_118275407

Libya not being in NATO didn't stop NATO forces going there in 2011 after a UN security council resolution was passed to allow it. Ukraine is not in NATO but does have cooperation agreements with NATO. If NATO stands idly by while Russia moves in, then NATO isn't worth much.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568792#Comment_118568792

NATO or technically some of NATO launched operations in Libya, but that just highlights the issue. NATO is under no obligation to any nation that isn’t a member whether that’s Ukraine or Finland or Ireland. NATO might choose to involve itself either on a nation by nation approach or by something more coordinated but no NATO has no requirement to counter Russia if NATO chooses not to.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568802#Comment_118568802

I understand that NATO are not under a strict obligation to get involved with a non member but if it's willing to go into Libya, but does nothing if Russia were to invade, then it just shows NATO up as opportunistic rather than an alliance that can maintain global stability. It also makes mockery of the cooperation pact between Ukraine and NATO. Putin has to be shown some genuine pushback by the West at some point. He'll keep pushing and pushing otherwise.

Manic Moran

I think the word you're looking for is 'realpolitik.' Whatever the moral arguments, even if the moral arguments are the same for an involvement in Libya as in Ukraine, the reality is that the costs incurred by involving in Libya will be far less than involvement in Ukraine.

briany

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118568893#Comment_118568893

There are costs to helping defend Ukraine, but there are potential costs to standing idly by if Russia do decide to roll in as well.

If we say that realpolitik is the way of the world, then we run the risk of appeasement up to the point that the problem can no longer be ignored and be forced to fight while cursing that preventative measures had not been taken.

I'm not advocating war but I do think that Putin should be made to realise, and his peoples made to realise, that he cannot just push his weight around. It wouldn't end at Ukraine if he moves in and the line will have to be drawn somewhere.

Psychlops

No friend of Ireland,

That new gear looks mighty fine right about now.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2022/0202/1277437-russia-letter-irish-govt/

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118573616#Comment_118573616

New Gear on Back order, call back later...

Hobgoblin11

190,000 people on the Ukraine 🇺🇦 border up to no good

Psychlops

Genuinely scary, this came from nowhere too.

Psychlops

Next up, the Soviet flag will be raised again.

Larbre34

No, next up is a Coup d'etat in the Kremlin.

Judging by his speech, and you don't have to speak Russian to see it, the old boy has lost the plot completely.

daheff

Russian 'Peacekeeping' mission into new republics tomorrow.

sparky42

I see Mick is still shrilling for Moscow. Meanwhile Orban might try blocking the EU sanctions package, but Germany has order a halt to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Some confusion as to whether or not Russia intends to only take control of the current "republic's" or push to take control of what they proclaimed they were in 2014 (which was much larger), meanwhile Putin and his FM has basically declared that Ukraine has no right to exist as an independent state.

sparky42

Reports suggest that tonight might be the night, eastern Ukrainian air ports have reportedly blocked their runways to prevent airborne landings, and Russia has just closed all of Ukrainian airspace bordering Russia until further notice. Cyber attacks have been increasing all day as well.

sparky42

Putin has declared a “special military operation” to demilitarise Ukraine, and increased clashes are already being reported.

roadmaster

Hopefully Ukraine has enoght Javelins to give the invaders a good bloody nose and make them suffer

ancientmariner

So the attack has been launched from Russia, Belarus, and Crimea. It was initiated by missile strikes on key out of City military areas such as Airfields to neutralise Ukrainian airpower. Units seem to go through border crossings with commercial traffic. it teaches a number of lessons on the need for distant strike weapons, dispersed assets, and an ability to prepare when you have months of notice of a likely invasion. At least harden some of the routes into target areas.

Unfortunately RU are settling a vendetta against a wayward member of the former USSR who was a shining performer for them in International Sports of all kinds. What should an international response be and who has the stomach for the conventional response when someone is in mortal danger.

The certainty now is, that the Russian Government and it's Ambassadors are NOT good friends and don't believe in compromise or the common right to life.

water-man

It's such a shame so many lives have already been lost over the last few years and more will be as a result of this serious incident and for what?

NATO/EU need to make a strong response to this. The next risk is if NATO/EU do nothing (or very little) then China will be eying Taiwan even more.

Larbre34

So far, according to the Ukrainian interior and civil defence apparatus, there have been 203 sites of air strikes and force engagement.

Ukraine have claimed five planes and two helicopters as kills, all unverified, while certainly at least one Ukrainian transport plane is down, pictures showing what looks like an An-26 or An-70.

The Ukrainian ambassador to the US claims a platoon of a Russian motor rifle batallion has been taken prisoner, again unverified.

A strategic airfield outside Kiev is currently the scene of fierce fighting between Russian airborne troops and defending Ukrainians. The UK MoD says a large Russian force is en route to Kiev by road.

Meanwhile a Turkish registered cargo ship has been hit by a stray bomb while transiting the Black Sea near Odessa - exactly the sort of mishap which can get NATO into the fight before you can say mutually assured destruction.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118686556#Comment_118686556

There's footage of at least 2 Russian KA-50's having been shot down. The An 225 may or may not have been destroyed in the fighting for one of the airports. 2 Turkish A400m's might be stuck on the ground, they landed just before everything kicked off.