Russian build up along Ukraine

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118736717#Comment_118736717

Their Navy was lost the day the Kerch Strait incident in 2018, when two patrol boats were fired upon by Russian Border patrol units, and captured. They lost the Azov sea that day to vessels of inferior size. While they were later returned, they had been stripped of all useful equipment. They still have not decided if they want the ex USN Perry class or not. Otherwise they lack the capability to hold what is left near their homeport in Odessa.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118738079#Comment_118738079

To be fair, I think looking at the performance of their Army and Air Force a choice might have been made as to how and where their limited budget should be spent and the Navy lost out.

ancientmariner

Attempts were made latterly by the Brits to bolster their Navy. However the main need because of the RU/Ukraine border is a good ground and Air defence. With Mariupol in blockade and Odessa likely to fall the need for or survival of a navy are both Negative. The only workable response would be to take back all of the Ukrainian coast including Crimea. Perhaps with an equipped Force they could do it

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118739052#Comment_118739052

Those UK ships wouldn't really been able to shift the odds against the Russians tbf. And I can't see how Ukraine takes back Crimea, granted if this keeps up I can see the Russian Army being mauled for a decade at least and they clearly have made no attempt to clean up the Soviet corruption in the system. But Crimea is not something they are going to give up, and I'm not sure if Ukraine will have the strength to take it.

Whatever settlement ends this Crimea most likely is ending up staying in Russian hands.

Larbre34

I'm not so sure. I think we'll see the collapse of the Russian state in its current form, out of this catastrophic endeavour.

Might take a while and will probably come from internal unrest, caused by the ending of normal civilian life for ordinary Russians as they know it; no money, no jobs, no information, no shops, meagre food, no life of any ambition. You cannot arrest and imprison 145 million people and they will take the heads of Putin and his inner circle, eventually.

After that, I'm sure the UN administered post-war conferences of restoration of Ukraine and its people will see its territorial integrity restored to those borders which the World already accept, those that existed in actuality in 2013.

Psychlops

I must say when they invaded it really had me worried, but im suprised at how useless & inept the Russians are! Dads army.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118743206#Comment_118743206

You're nearly right. Kids army.

I bet Putin is quite shocked that his military doesn't believe in him or want to fight his phoney war for him at all. When the truth of all this filters back to ordinary Russians, as despite all the media blackouts, it will eventually from servicemen and through families living abroad, he's going to be hung up on a wall.

ancientmariner

They will find out in Russia. An Irish Ukrainian Doctor being rescued by two Scottish truck Drivers who got stopped by young Russians on their way in to the rescue point had their mobile phones taken and told to turn back and sent on their way with shots at their vehicle. The phones will be able to be used to ring Mom and dad. The truck according to RTE news got back in to a town (phonetic) called Summey and picked up the young doctor and her friend to go to LVIV about 17 hour drive.

Brussels Sprout

Question 1

I've seen quite a few twitter threads detailing the shambles in logistics by the Russian army. Factoring that in along with the considerable losses in combat and the fact that they have deployed an estimated 95% of the initial forces they had amassed on the Ukrainian borders is there a possibility of the Russians simply running out of functioning vehicles?

I know that sounds absurd given their huge numbers in total but if you consider:

• The direct losses in combat
• The malfunctions, stuck in mud, breakdowns etc
• The need to keep forces all around Russia in order to maintain civil order in a de-facto police state (if required)

What is their contingency here?

Brussels Sprout

Question 2

Let's say the Russians stop their advancements and instead just park up their artillery inside the Russian/Crimean/Belarus/DNR/LNR borders, surround them with anti-aircraft capabilities and flatten Ukrainian cities from afar - and then send in troops to take over when the cities are rubble. What are the downsides of that (apart from the terrible optics of massacring civilians)?

Could the Ukrainians realistically counter that strategy in any way?

ancientmariner

We are probably looking at a hard edge Close Air Support coupled with anti-personnel munitions, coupled with counter attack and some Arty to get into their HQ areas.

Larbre34

Mobile artillery won't flatten cities. At least it won't without it taking years and years.

When various cities in Germany were flattened (really flattened) in WWII, it took months of high level carpet bombing, often using incendiary bombs by allied air forces, ahead of advancing ground armies. A combination of old style building materials and close proximity of structures resulted in great fire storms that hollowed out cities which then fell into rubble.

For the Russians to achieve something similar, they would have to deploy conventional cruise and ballistic missiles, like the Iskander system, on a wide scale, as well as its indiscriminate thermobaric rocket launchers.

They would likely have to also launch an indiscriminate air campaign against Ukrainian cities, using ordinary gravity bombs from their Backfire, Bear and Blackjack bombers.

All of this, would represent a major escalation in military activity and a major departure from Russia's original plan and no doubt cause major tension among the upper echelons of the military and political apparatus in Moscow.

It could, of course, be countered by the increased supply of Western defensive weapons systems to Ukraine, such as Patriot and THAAD and the already very successful short-range Stinger.

Even if the Russian armour does eventually get into position to attempt to lay siege to big cities, such as Kyiv, it seems that again, the Western supplied anti armour missiles, especially Javelin, are highly effective against them and could be employed from either side of the siege line.

Overall it seems that all this heralded Russian equipment is mostly crap, Russian soldiers are mostly unmotivated and unsuitably trained and Russian logistics and campaign planning took place in the local Kindergarten.

As time goes on, I'd be more confident of the domestic Ukrainian population, including some 10 million men highly motivated of fighting age, backed by excellent real time intelligence from the West, as well as state of the art weapons, being able to upset and derail each Russian plan as it develops and I hope they get every plane, missile and rifle that they can handle.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118746253#Comment_118746253

Thanks for the comprehensive (and uplifting) response.

Larbre34

More in hope than expectation friend. Have to be optimistic for them.

Psychlops

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118744769#Comment_118744769

Videos on SM showing civilian vehicles headed to Ukraine on trains plastered with the word "Z". A US Army person on Twitter that used to maintain US Army Trucks etc reckons some of those Pantsirs? I think thats how its spelled & other heavy gear has been lying idle for months or possibly a year & thats why they are not functioning.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118748581#Comment_118748581

There is a saying by mechanics in the agriculture industry that the best thing adiesel engine like is work. its very hard to do preventive maintenace on equipment. You eally need it to be working day in day out. the day you find a problem with a machine is the day you go to use it. working

Dohvolle

Same with tyres on HGVs. You can't leave them sitting idle, they get flat spots and sidewall start to perish. As soon as they come under pressure (like if you decide to go offroad) the sidewall will crack and deflate and most likely pop off the wheel.

This is why that convoy is stuck on the roadway...

roadmaster

The Polish Mig29s that ukraine are getting they all have major western technology upgrades. Will that give the ukraine pilots much of an advantage when they go head to head against the russians?

Larbre34

We'll probably never know that one, at least until somebody writes the book on the War after the fact.

You would imagine though, that the further the MiGs are from the systems configuration the Ukrainian pilots are familiar with, the longer the lead time for effective deployment will be.

It's also pretty risky, if one of those with the western upgrades, gets downed in Russian held territory and analysed by them.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118754556#Comment_118754556

I wonder even in the future will it turn out they where flown by polish pilots in ukraine uniforms

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118754626#Comment_118754626

I'd be very, very surprised if that was the case

Again, if one were captured, it would be used as just the sort of excuse Russia is seeking to widen the War.

Besides, it seems that there is little shortage of experienced pilots who are serving or have recently served with the UAF, whose staff exceeds 40,000. We're only talking about 23 Polish MiGs, or less. The Ukrainian lads will probably be fighting each other off for a chance to fly one of them into combat.

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118754626#Comment_118754626

That will never be said

ancientmariner

The Polish transfer of MIGs is deemed untenable due to their hunt and seek ability. defensive arms anti-Tk and anti-Air are ok in that if you do not invade their loc then you are not in danger. The only strategy left for the Ru is to take Kyiy install in their terms a friendly Government, hope the other 43m will go along. Then get an agreement of non-alignment and then leave. The country is too big for dealing with a continual insurgency.

Larbre34

So it seems the US has nixed the Polish MiG-29 proposal, even though the detail last night was reporting the specifics of the US F-16 supply that would replace them, the US being concerned at escalation.

At the same time, the UK DoD is suggesting sending units of its Mach 4 Starstreak MANPAD.

I kinda feel that NATO needs to be conducting this sort of Dutch auction stuff much more on the downlow. Why do they want to mark the Russians' card? After all, Russia has effective control of very little of Ukraine overall, so it seems NATO can convoy in as much gear as it likes into Western Ukraine for onward deployment.

Russia seem to be in so much disarray on the ground, now is the time to take advantage of that and start breaking some of the sieges where Russian commitments are thin and stressed.

If it were me, I'd paint up the Polish MiGs and send them anyway, for use with extreme discretion. I daresay the Russians haven't the time or resources to identify where a particular plane originated anyway, nor to do much about it.

ancientmariner

Having failed so far with their objective of seizing key cities, the RU may resort to a dirtier war in the chemical range. In the meantime with Mariupol being a seaport, take out the women and children by sea using a liner type vessel that has it's own ferry craft. They could be landed at ODESSA and moved on from there. The sea would be the safest corridor and a liner trip would be a holiday with 5 or more restaurants. The RU should be asked to allow the move as a humanitarian corridor.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762276#Comment_118762276

That’s not possible, the Russians have sealed off the Sea of Azov under the bridge they built to connect Crimea and have already hit at least three foreign ships and forced one ship into a minefield at Odessa to try and clear it (and that was before they let themselves be lured into losing a corvette). They aren’t letting civilians out, it’s not Russian tactics.

As for CWs, technically they are meant to have destroyed their stocks and won’t be able to use Syria as an excuse this time, but given the US is now reporting circa 5-6k dead and potentially 3 times that wounded for Russian forces, the coming season of mud and importantly the demobilisation of the conscripts by the end of the month it’s possible.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118757828#Comment_118757828

If it were me, I'd paint up the Polish MiGs and send them anyway, for use with extreme discretion. I daresay the Russians haven't the time or resources to identify where a particular plane originated anyway, nor to do much about it.

This thing with the Migs is reminding me of a scene from one of my favourite films, 13 days about the Cuban Missile Crisis. Kennedy's aide Kenny O'Donnell is instructing one of the pilots doing surveillance over Cuba

Kenny O'Donnell:

The president has instructed me to pass along an order to you. You are not to get shot down.

Commander William B. Ecker:

Uh, we'll do our best, sir.

O'Donnell:

I don't think you understand me, Commander. You are not to get shot down under any circumstances. Whatever happens up there, you were not shot at. Mechanical failures are fine, crashing into mountains fine. But you and your men are not to be shot at, fired at, or launched upon.

ancientmariner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118762476#Comment_118762476

Putin's bridge to Crimea is high enough for standard ships to pass through. if it is blocked it can be unblocked. The Ukrainians managed to get a naval vessel out to the approaches of Odessa and put a round in a RU vessel which withdrew. The Ukrainians still hold Odessa. This is developing into a war of attrition which has already caused the Ru to commit most of their in theatre assets, believed to be 95% of available formations, meaning he has no reserve and those not yet committed are likely to be in the wrong place to be effective. He may have to do something spectacular and illegal.

punchdrunk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118746253#Comment_118746253

It also would appear that the Ukrainians are holding a large amount of their own armour back in the west, possibly waiting for more favourable ground conditions to launch a counter offensive in the coming weeks

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118766062#Comment_118766062

I never said it couldn't be sailed under, I said it is blocked by the Russians. Since they aren't willing to allow civilians out, what exactly do you suggest, use of force? He's already done illegal things, he's been doing it for years and getting away with it, and since NATO isn't going to attack Russia he knows he has a window if he wants.