FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

and the cold is gone on the 6z. No surprises there when the GFS ensembles had no support for cold in the first place. The operational just kept spitting out the coldest most unreliable chart possible over the past few days, it's so bad it makes the CFS extended look good.

The Pub run is at it again, lovely easterly and unstable too, and just in time before it's too late. Better keep dreaming.

If only this could verify, 5 years chasing an easterly.

A very mild outlook indeed. GFS similar to all other models showing either mild or exceptional mild conditions to dominate our weather over the next few weeks. After a mild January, February is on target to be exceptionally mild so this winter overall is likely to finish up milder than average despite December being slightly cooler than average. Temperatures in the low to mid teens later this week and into next weekend, if this is combined with sunshine then it will certainly deliver a taste of early Spring.

Looks very dry over the coming week but by mid month we probably will go back to a more unsettled pattern, but nothing too wet showing up on the models at the moment, certainly nowhere near the deluge conditions of the recent autumn and then the second half of December to early January period.

If we are going to get any cold this month we may have to wait till the final week of the month, however the cold is looking much more likely for March.

CFS really going to town on delivering a significant pattern change from the final days of February and well into the month of March.

Turning chilly end of February with parts of the UK going into the freezer.

Chilly opening week of March with north-easterly winds at times but will it be cold enough for snow?

Another blast end of 1st week of March and into the second week, on this chart Ireland narrowly misses out on a direct hit.

After this we go high and dry and staying very chilly.

Later in the month we get a very cold northerly and go into the freezer in terms of upper air temperatures.

The above probably doesn't mean much as this is the CFS but it has been sticking to it's guns for quite a while now showing a very chilly March overall. Definitely a trend here for March to be quite different to what we have seen all winter.

A few of the GEM runs playing around with things turning colder into the final week of February. There are about 4 members doing this, hopefully more will join over the next couple of days.

GFS ensembles show nothing too cold yet however there is a definite cooling trend now appearing for the final week of February.

We are likely to see an increase in members turning cold from the 24th of February over the next few days. Of course upper air temperatures right now are well above average and will stay that way for another 10 days at least.

Even if we were to get a beast from the east for a few days in February (very unlikely), this will still finish up a milder than average month as temperatures will be well above average for the first 3 weeks of February. The month is also likely to finish up much dryer than average, however the final week is likely to be somewhat more unsettled.

Winter 2022/2023 will finish up milder than average yet again after a very mild second half to December, a mostly mild January and very mild February for the most part.

The media just can't help themselves with rubbish articles relating to the weather and nothing whatsoever to back up their claims. The next 2 weeks is looking mostly dry and mild. What happens after that remains very much to be seen, we may turn cooler in the final days of the month but it could be just temperatures closer to average. No guarantees of anything properly cold on the horizon other than chasing a few cold outliers for the moment.