FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

It probably won't have much adverse impact on lower ground. Provided there are no further downgrades, I still think that transient lowly lying snow is possible, and having not seen a flake of snow so far this winter that will do me. I would love ice days and significant accumulations of dry snow as much as anyone, but that is not going to happen anytime soon, unfortunately.

The UKMO is looking very wintry at times

The GEFS ensembles are an upgrade on this morning's run with the milder air holding off for longer. The GEM and ICON both rather marginal. The JMA showing potential for a rain/sleet to snow event early Tuesday.

Arguably, the potential for snowfall is currently greater within the 5-7 day period than anything that has come before this winter. Fast moving showers in an unstable cold airmass is the stuff of nightmares for forecasters.

The NAO index showing readings as close to neutral for the first time since the end of the cold spell one week before Christmas.

The UK Met Office has changed its tune from milder SW conditions for next week to something more seasonal. I live the line in bold. It's usually brief colder incursions.

On Monday, with cold air in place, showers are likely to be wintry across the north, even to low levels, with some wintriness in showers further south too, but equally there will be some sunny spells. For the following few days, the most likely scenario is one of generally colder conditions, compared to recently, to dominate, with potential for brief incursions of milder air tied with Atlantic frontal systems.

Uppers of minus 5 or a shade lower, an unstable airmass and a wicked breeze will negate mariginality in some places. Latest ECM.

"Ticket for one please" 🚇️

That ECM is something else.

(Granted it would be lot more of a rain mix than this shows)

Will that low intensify like that as it moves South East? I just have a feeling that low could be shallower in the end . The cold spell might not last long as per the latest ECM , but heavy snow in a strong driving wind would be fantastic to see.

Booking office open?? 🚂🚂🚂

ECM now following the GFS in trying to build heights to our north east by day 10. Unfortunately most of the cold air is gone at that stage, but if the high could be sustained then cold air would eventually come. Before all that we seem to have lost Tuesday's deep low, a slacker flow , but there still should be some snow around before the high moves in. The GFS again is best in terms of prolonging the cold period.

Let's see if tonight's output continues the theme of a pressure build to the North East. Also it's getting rather warm in the strat in fi.

Lol GFS, if this comes off then I hope we will be building snowmen!

Given its the GFS though, it could be showing mild southerlies with a massive Azores high in the 12z

The GFS always hilariously overestimates snow, but still interesting to see.

Bank! 6z unfortunately can’t be trusted a bit like the 18z but we shall see.

Since its 'update' the gfs has been very bad at times, often completely flipping from one run to another, usually at the extreme end of its ensembles (extremely mild or extremely cold), so while it might show trends early on, there is a very high chance the next run would be a very mild or very cold run and it would be completely out on its own. E.G At the end of the cold run in December, the gfs was showing a strongish greeny high still being there (in the reliable timeframe), cold over us while the gem, ukmo, ecmwf all had that gone. It kept it up right till the end when it was eventually wrong again. It's verification rate against the other models hasn't been great of late, with even the GEM performing better,

TLDR; It just hasn't been very trustworthy of late with constant flopping from one extreme to the other unfortunately.

That's the best way to do it! But for the GFS, it has had many trends recently that have just been totally wrong. Showing them for a number of days and then it slowly falls back in line, sometimes when it hits about 72hrs to go only.