FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Chart from early December 1981. Incredible depth and extent of cold in the near Arctic that would be inconceivable today:

Nothing is nailed in yet. It will be this weekend before we have a fair idea what will happen by the end of next week. There is some sort of cold spell on the way and all model outputs have been great today. Most important thing for coldies is get the cold in first and then take it from there what follows. As mentioned earlier it is been watch closely by the UKMO and folks in Glasnevin. If we continue to see runs like this over the weekend then we could see a Met Éireann advisory issued Sunday or early next week but we are along way of from that yet.

There is still time to go wrong… BUT this is quite the pattern and outlook we are looking at. 1981, 1995, 2010 - whatever your comparison is, this is the real deal.

I’m 90% onboard right now, only the Dec 2012 saga is giving me shivers. Hemispherically this is a 2010 redux, at local levels is a different gig.

The thread of all threads is coming from Kermit, he is just waiting for more certainty than usual. Everyone is quite likely in for a major shock to the system come next week.

No words, what a set of EC clusters this evening. I couldn't resist. Pretty much all very blocked with differing positions on the trough that would be vital to snow or cold air advection from the northeast by day 10. On the whole they're all variations on the same theme.

I will continue sitting on the fence for now though, been bitten too many a time.

Would I be correct in saying the ECM tends to handle the cold outcomes better so here's hoping we are entering into a memorable phase of weather next midweek.

IF still firmly on track by tomorrow evening's noon runs I'll do the first detailed build up thread later tomorrow evening after the 12 ECM! Been a number of years since such an exciting prospect like this but keep the feet firmly on the ground for now!😁

Ah that 2012 saga was painful. It all went belly up about three days out. Someone on Netweather said at the time that an uptick in solar activity may have scuppered it. So lets hope for no major uptick in Solar activity in the coming weeks.

I honestly doubt a sudden spike in sunspot activity would have had an immediate effect on a synoptic scale weather pattern to be honest. That said, I don't remember that particular occasion in 2012 at all.

Well i honestly don't know. Those were the thoughts of Stuart Rampling over on Netweather at the time, but maybe you are right he was scrambling for an explanation. As you can imagine there was a complete meltdown on Netweather at the time.

Still day 8-10 before any 2010 style cold reaches our shores. I think references to that type of event are far to premature. GFS has been wobbling for 2 days now.

A seasonal start to winter is locked in though, fingers crossed for anything more for now.

I would agree here. Assuming tomorrows output continues the trend - this is it. I’m not saying this will be a re run of 2010, that was the coldest month ever recorded in Ireland, and as such I don’t think it’s a great year to always be comparing to!

Having said that, this is an exceptionally unusual pattern at any point in the year, never mind December ! I’m somewhat surprised and excited that we are heading into a potentially historic cold spell given the recent run of consecutive warm months.

These are exceptional times, IF, BIG IF, This comes off- enjoy it, these spells are so so rare historically - and this looks to be a major one…

I will be 100% onboard tomorrow.