FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Interesting reading back over all the posts. Very cold charts all round now, blocking in place and ECM introducing very cold shallow LP's and their associated fronts and troughs ,cold mid level and very cold upper temperatures over relatively warm seas should produce a stream of showers in fact ECM looking very wintry now at least, might not be pristine snow but beginning to show potential for wintry weather disruption with hard frost and icy nights and mornings and day time temperatures of only a few degrees, might even struggle to get over 0C in a few places towards the end of the week if there is snow lying, some very cold overnight temps showing up now, down as low as -4 to -6C on the latest run.
Currently showing frontal snow events with snow accumulations on the 12Z, significant in some places but these charts will chop and change over the coming days, for now just looking for the trend and potential and it is certainly there in the current charts. Unusual to see such charts after all the Atlantic driven weather. And no end in sight to the cold spell either !
Just have to include the ECM snow prediction charts of what it could look like if the temperatures, LP, fronts and troughs align 😀 . No harm to post for future reference to see how the models fared this far out, do you remember the predictions for Emma, we thought the models were broken but how right they were.
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Overall a very nice set of ensembles this evening. We are starting to lose the 'turning milder' trend right at the very end, so there is a chance this cold spell could extend into the 3rd week of December. An increased risk of snow too compared to the 6z and not just on the operational run. We also have a few cold outliers now appearing which go below -10C so a further swing to cold overall.
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