FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Rebelbrowser

I can see why MT is quite conservative on this. I lack the understanding of weather charts of many others on here but the upper temps are still pretty unspectacular here. Yes I know this isn't Atlantic sourced, but still. Perhaps my relative lack of enthusiasm is because I genuinely do think this kind of set up could lead to a Cork snow shield - but I see other Cork based posters don't share my concerns! Hopefully they are right.

glightning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947437#Comment_119947437

I feel the same TBH. However, I did go back and look at the charts for Dec 2010 and surprisingly they were often only around -5 to -7 as well. In fact, there was a significant period of warmer upper temps mid month. So clearly the persistent snow cover made all the difference that year.

squonk

Not a great reader of charts myself but I think there’s way too much optimism on here. West coast based and I can see some decent cold on the way but in my parts snow is a real outlier. I can really only remember 82, a small bit in either 90/91, 2000 which was excellent and 2018 which was also great but I was away at the time sadly. We got really decent cold in 09/10 and I’ll never forget that. First time I’ve experienced opening the door to head outside feeling like walking into a giant freezer. We did get a period of freezing rain inn2010 too associated with the breakdown of the cold spell which was also a first in these parts.

I might get excited this time next week if things are starting to firm up but I think the conservative line might be where things land.

Supercell

Ohh....tasty. Can we blow up the IOM before it breaks hearts?

Brendan offaly

Keep positive people.

Its weather and anything can happen when it gets cold.

There will always be surprises.

KingJeremy

Its a long way out yet...but Met app showing temps not getting above -2 Thursday next week and then snow the following Sunday for my part of Galway 😮🙏

whippet

far too many variables to be hanging the hat on at this stage.

And I'll set myself up for disappointment - the Beast from the East a few years back didn't even delivery enough snow in my garden to make snow balls let alone a snow man, I'm on the north east coast and for those days it all seemed to blow right over our heads and dumping the snow a couple of miles inland !

mcburns07

Feel like i'm alone in being happy with cold, snow is a bonus (probably due to being from Cork).

When you consider the sort of weather we usually get in December, for it to be 3 degrees or lower with frosts would be nice and seasonable, a nice change from the usual muck.

Cork2021

Looks juicy to be fair, a real battleground.

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1598610814201643010?s=46&t=mos9TRMhkQO8LSUpAEjuAw

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947698#Comment_119947698

Very simply you wonder is the cold going to be cold enough to counteract the warmer than average sea temps around our shores. If it is then it could be biblical.

If not a cold slushy rainy mess.

Just wondering is a northeasterly not as good as an easterly. Its travelling over the North Atlantic so might be subject to modifications in temperature etc.

.Donegal.

Early stages 6z gfs is better than 0z. Colder air in quicker

Kermit.de.frog

The big question mark for me are the small secondary short waves (mini developing low pressure centers) spinning off the main vortex over Scandinavia in the Iceland/Norway sea corridor. These develop centers of slightly milder air and if they deepen too much we could easily be flipped to the wrong side of the polar front. We want to avoid that. That's why I have been slightly reluctant on this. We are on track though.

Let's be honest if offered the above some time back we'd have taken it!

TTLF

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947760#Comment_119947760

A north Easterly, in my opinion is whole deal better than a straight Easterly. Streamer activity would increase as the wind direction creates a longer fetch of ocean for them to develop (under the right uppers/SSTs) and there's less in the way of shadows (Talking Dublin/E Coast here mainly)

Really without comparing 'it', because every year is different, the likes of November 27th 2010 saw NE winds bring the cold Arctic air into Ireland and England and the start of the streamer activity. But note, the source was coming straight from the Urals, which is quite a rare stretch of air to make all the way over here.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947774#Comment_119947774

6z GFS looks better, question is does the ECM match it this afternoon

Always chasing the next run !

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947774#Comment_119947774

Spot on Kermit. It will be the weekend most likely Sunday before we can even start looking at snowfall forecasts and even then there will be uncertainty. If we are still looking at charts like this on Sunday id expect a Met Eireann Weather advisory warning of colder weather from mid week and the potential for some heavy or significant falls of snow for some areas.

SleetAndSnow

Snow charts are never to be trusted, especially this far out... but...

They are nice to look at!

leahyl

Ah lovely, none for Cork!!!!

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948003#Comment_119948003

This always happens with snow charts for Cork for whatever reason, I vividly remember the BFTE charts showing the same, and then we got more snow then a lot of the country lol. I think its because we are near to the coast and the resolution just makes it appear that way?

As a fellow Corkie, we can pray that this is the case!😂

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947774#Comment_119947774

Hopefully they stay cold enough to keep all precipitation as snow. These features are good for giving more widespread spells of snow. They are especially important if the wind was to veer northerly since northerlies are unreliable away from the west and north. A good recent example I can think of is NYE 2020, which gave parts of the east a dusting. Without it, it would've stayed dry. The expected air mass this time is more potent so I would hope for more than a dusting. For anyone concerned about uppers, NYE 2020 was with -4°C uppers.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947801#Comment_119947801

NE direction no good for us here in North Louth I'm afraid. I remember in 2010 watching the streamers piling into the Drogheda area while we had sunny day after sunny day. Cooley/Mournes snowshield stops them dead. Frustrating!

leahyl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948023#Comment_119948023

Perhaps....although tbh the snow that we got in the city from Emma wasn't that bad really and only lasted a day before it started melting.....2010 was way better.

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948039#Comment_119948039

Yeah, the snow we got in the city was more from Streamers, had about 5-6cm on my wall from them. Emma didn't give much, it was like glitter falling from the sky it was very strange, still not sure what that was.

That was also March though. I'm a bit too young to remember 2010 properly, I was only 10 and remember the pipes into my house freezing, and the de-icer my parents were spraying onto the car also froze!

leahyl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948052#Comment_119948052

2010 was a classic - will take a lot to beat that! Just the sheer depth of cold and how long it went on for!

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948039#Comment_119948039

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948039#Comment_119948039

The snow we got from Emma was extreme and lasted a full week in the Cork area. That's my memory of it, started on Tuesday and lasted to Sunday. The snow drifts lasted a couple of weeks afterwards

SleetAndSnow

GFS 6Z Looking good at 138hrs! Getting the cold in a bit faster

WolfeEire

Looking at surface temps (2 metres), using Dublin as an example, the 06HR GFS ensembles are trending much colder over the past 24 hours. Below is the latest run versus the output from yesterday afternoon. Daytime temps struggling to rise much above freezing from midweek.

Interestingly, Met Éireann has also updated it's outlook to the following:

Overview: Cold with a showery easterly airflow early in the week. Indications of very cold weather from Wednesday onwards.

SeaBreezes

Its very much dependent on wind direction. In cork, we dont do well in NE'elys. Easterlys suit us better as better chance of S/SE winds gives us lake effect snow. AFAIK. But happy to stand corrected by experts here!

Gonzo

The GFS 6z looks decent for some prolonged cold, showing up to a week of temperatures no better than 0C or 1C in many places. No point worrying about the snow details yet as we are still a week away from the proper cold and much will change between now and next Thursday/Friday.

KingdomRushed

Do I remember rightly in 2010 that even when day temperatures were struggling to get above -3 or -4 in Dublin some days the forecast was still always showing maxes of -1 to 1. ie wasn't it always colder than what the short term forecast was showing (in the round).

There is no doubt in my mind anyway that this is a genuine cold spell locked in. Still nervous to call an epic freeze. But each day ticks on!

Billcarson

Will December 2022 be added to the list of cold December's in recent decades like 81,95,09,10. One for every decade maybe 2022 is the yr when it will be the 20s turn.

pauldry

Certainly looks a bit more promising now and there will likely be snow in some places late next week. At worst on the wicklow mountains at best everywhere (except Cork).

Temperatures are hovering around 0c on these runs whereas yesterday they were around 4c. Of course there will be more chopping and changing and it could still get ruined.

snowstorm445

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948069#Comment_119948069

That's my memory of it as well. Snow cover seemed really deep and basically didn't stop falling for days. Some of the heaviest falls in the country for sure (about as heavy as I had in Dublin at the same time).

I only remember the end of the 2010 spell but the snow cover seemed a lot lighter in Cork compared to the rest of the country, I think at that stage the snow showers had gone and it was in the final phase of clear skies and extreme cold until Stephen's Day. Maybe it had been much deeper earlier in the month.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Great to see the interest and enthusiasm but please use winter thread for chat, this thread is just for +120hrs.

I'm sure a dedicated thread will be along shortly too 😉

pauldry

Thursday and Friday of next week look like the Wintry showers start after that cold air keeps digging in but may not be too much precipitation. Still looks like 4 to 7c possibly near zero in some spots.

SleetAndSnow

Met eireann showing a max of 1 degree and a low of -6 for my location on Thursday, along with Snow on Sunday.

YR.no showing max 1 on Thursday and a low of -4, 3 on Fri and -4 at night.. gonna be a big difference from previous weeks whatever happens

.Donegal.

🥶 🥶

torres9kop

Was in the local Centra earlier. Large box of fire logs for €10. Normally €17. Grabbed a few boxes. Stock up now before the big freeze hits 🥶

WolfeEire

12Z GFS run. Up to 126 hours (Wednesday evening), pictured right, the run is very close to the 06z (left) with the exception of the high pressure to our north and northwest which regresses further west towards Greenland. This allows a greater reach into our Atlantic for colder air surging down from the northeast.

This bodes well during the period of Wed-Fri next week for Ireland/UK, which were previously on the western periphery of the colder areas of airmass (-6 to -8c 850hPA). The latter now extends much further west of Ireland as opposed to hugging our western coastline. The effect of high pressure located closer to our northwest was reducing the potential for instability and consequent shower activity across Ireland. See the latest run (left) versus the earlier run (right) for Thursday evening. This is subtle but important upgrade for cold potential during that period for Ireland. Questions remain over whether the shift of the Greeland high pressure further to our northwest will reduce the potential longevity of the spell beyond Wed-Fri. The GFS suggests it does reduce the potency of any cold airmass over Ireland.

Overall, the potential for daytime temperatures remaining close to or at freezing from Wednesday eve through Friday (at least) is significant with a raised risk of wintry falls at lower levels. This shows up on the snow accumulation chart with coimparisons between the current run (left) and 06z (right). Note, that these charts are indicators as opposed to absolute.

Reticent to look beyond this 48 hour period (Wed-Fri), as so much chopping and changing is likely between now and then.

Images c/o meteociel.fr

igCorcaigh

https://www.met.ie/cold-weather-coming-our-way

...

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949687#Comment_119949687

Choo f**king Choo!

sean555

Wolfie back in, must be a good sign!

squarecircles

all looks meh, hovering around zero at nite ,up to 5,6. or 7 in the day, especially along western coastal extremities,very little precipitation,i think will survive...was looking interesting and prolonged there last nite...just as well no dedicated thread was made, ties in with MTs subdued forecast this morning, probably will return to standard mild muck during christmas.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949879#Comment_119949879

Love your optimism

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949879#Comment_119949879

Met Eireann are giving 0 max on thursday and -2 min, max 2 degrees friday, max 3 Sat and max 1 Sunday with a possibility of snow, for Galway

Latest GFS charts are reading the same as well from what I can see? And you generally take one or two degrees off these as well, and factor in the easterly wind chill...

Thats a bit of a difference from current, not sure where you're getting 7 degrees from, to me those sort of temperatures look to be over the ocean

Villain

The model to model changes are subtle enough but there will always be some people that ramp like mad and some that meh it’s crap.

The pattern is fairly nailed on now but the details remain uncertain, anyone expecting snow beyond Wednesday is wishful thinking but anyone expecting mild to return is equally wishful thinking.

Let’s get the next few runs of models and get into non FI and see where it goes. New to this weather watching people would be advised not to take any one post or one model update too seriously. Have a look at all the info and then make your mind up. It is also great to see a former boardsie writing the update for Met Éireann, we are in good hands with Matty :)

rooney30

Thats the spirit

.Donegal.

Latest gfs upgrade in short term for me. 6/7cm to fall Wednesday night/Thursday morning. High of 2c for Thursday/Friday. Snow totals can’t be taken seriously at this early stage but better than the previous run for next week for here at least.

WolfeEire

The UKMO delivers a cold, and somewhat unstable airmass over Ireland from early Wednesday into Thursday bringing with it wintry precipitation to lower levels by Thursday evening if not sooner. Wintry falls could occur more widely on higher ground, particularly in Ulster and parts of the west and east, by Wednesday night. ECM begins rolling out shortly.

TheMilkyPirate

You'll usually find in set ups like this that the people coming in here saying it will be 7 degrees during the day and its all meh are more often that not living on the west coast.