FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

BLIZZARD7

I don’t know what the air pressure is for this chart, but assuming a slack flow over embedded cold and snow fields… any lows could challenge those set in 2010. It’s the optimum time of year in terms of solar output and dark hours.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942557#Comment_119942557

Low pressure over Wales, but looks a shallow enough feature.

.Donegal.

First time this autumn/winter that xcweather has snow forecast for my location. It only goes out as far as next Thursday but has a massive 0.2cm of snow for next Wednesday night.

bazlers

Well 1st of Dec.

Its beginning to look alot like christmas...but not as we know it.

ECM looking pretty good

More north and west you are the better. More runs to come.

If it goes too far west its not advantageous for anyone.

SmithsFan

Out of curiosity, why are some of the posters in this forum "excited" about a cold spell, or what could in fact be an exceptionally cold spell?

bazlers

Personally its probably the child in us...a bit of nostalgia rolled in..escapism...a break from the norm...and there is something about a really cold snowy period that can bring communities together. Kids playing on the green making a simple snowman.

Getting back to the outputs and still nothing nailed on. It will be seasonal for sure though.

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942914#Comment_119942914

This has been gone over a million times in here over the years. Same when there's a storm same when there's heavy snow or any extreme weather forecast. The answer is people in here have an interest in the weather and usually the extremes of weather. That's it.

Anyway, after a quick flick through in work they look to be fantastic charts again this morning.

BLIZZARD7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942929#Comment_119942929

This^ 100%. I also personally just enjoy colder and snowy weather in general.

The trend is the same this morning, finer details yet to be decided. ECM op run is very much a possibility but isn’t the best for delivering deep sustained cold - a bit more marginal for most but could provide better snow potential for those in the northern half of the country, especially in-land. Hemispherically- the PV is in tatters early on.

UKMO looks like it would be better in terms of delivering the more certain colder/snowy route like the GFS/GEM are showing.

GFS control run is my favourite option this morning, a beautiful east/north-easterly with embedded features in the flow -

gerrybhoy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942914#Comment_119942914

The child in us all, out playing in the snow, snowball fights making snow men/women (for the PC brigade) just takes folk back to simpler times, now most have kids who also love the snow. There is also folk who study all types of weather and follow storms etc. religiously.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942914#Comment_119942914

Why do some people get excited when Manchester United, a team in a foreign land, start winning all their games or sign a new star player?

Why do some people get excited when their political party start polling well ahead of an election?

Why do some people get excited when Garth Brooks announced he is playing Croke park?

Why are some people forever miserable and never get excited about anything in their lives but go moaning on internet boards about people who get excited about an interesting variation in the weather?

glightning

You can’t change it. The weather will do whatever it likes regardless.

Some people talking on a forum isn’t going to influence the weather in any way.

If cold is coming, then it’s coming. Some of population won’t like that. Some will.

Reckless Abandonment

And back to the modeles..

Not as clean cut as yesterday. Cold rain probably. Hopefully it will swing back to a more snowy set up in the next run.

glightning

Just a quick point about the 2010 comparisons. Personally don’t see this as the same. The 2010 artic outbreak got its source air all the way from artic Alaska. The airmass moved over the pole and down over us. It was extremely cold air.

Pattern looks good this year, but airmass fundamentally may not be from as cold a source.

pistolpetes11

Keep it on Topic please , the weather will do what it will do and whatever people relish , dream or hope for will have no bearing on what the weather does .

It is a forum for weather enthusiasts, by all means if you feel a need, open a thread about lashing rain and wind as the preferred choice for the winter months like we usually get .

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Please stay on topic. Off topic posts will be removed. It's a weather forum...people on here like weather!

EDIT: Posts deleted to try and stay on topic.

Cluedo Monopoly

Roughly speaking, when is this cold event due to peak? I am trying to plan best day to head for the hills. Sounds like the deep cold will arrive around Dec 10th?

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943376#Comment_119943376

That unfortunately is not known.

Keep watching the models and the forecast closer to the time.

At the moment it looks like the second week of December is coldest.

Gonzo

This mornings ECM not great as it's far too marginal, certainly not as good as yesterday evenings ECM. The other models look decent but I don't think we're there yet in terms of what we really want. We would need more upgrades across all models if it's a 2010 style event everyone is after. I feel this one still has a few days to go before we can be sure what way this is going to go, will it be cold enough for snow at low levels and will there be precipitation to begin with!

nacho libre

GFS switches to something more favourable, then ECM shows something less promising if it's deep cold and snow you're after. I feel the next ECM ouput could be telling, if it's similar to this run. What we don't want to see is the other models then backing it. It's a pity we can't have the cross model agreement like we had in 2018, if only to spare the remaining hairs on my head:)

Gonzo

The 12z set of runs today will definitely be telling if we're heading towards an event worthy of a new thread or a cold spell with mixed precipitation in places which would not deserve it's own thread. The 12z runs could still be mixed signals between the models, we could be waiting till early next week for a clear picture where we are at.

Billcarson

Typical that when the ECM has a run that's not as good as it's recent output the GFS takes up the baton and has a run that's better then it's own recent output. The joys of model watching lol.

pauldry

I still see nothing bar cold rain and sleet. Maybe it will upgrade next week but just looks wet and cold for next week temperatures 4 to 7c and some ice

Gonzo

GFS 6z also not what you want if you want snow. It's a mostly dry setup with a few coastal showers into Donegal and the rest of the country dry.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943640#Comment_119943640

I'd take cold and dry rather then cold rain and sleet though if it came down to it. Providing if it wasn't quite cold enough for snow. Cold and dry is the next best option.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943605#Comment_119943605

Could very well be the case. While many of the charts look very good at least on paper, we should remember it's only early December. I think 2010 skewed people's perception about cold spells before Christmas. More often then not any snow is reserved for the hills before Xmas especially in coastal counties.

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943605#Comment_119943605

Next week high temps for Tullamore.

2.c max friday afternoon.

As we get closer to the event the onlin forecasts will catch up to what the models where and are showing.

The above is yr. Weather.

SleetAndSnow

Saw this on Netweather, looks like the ECM OP is a bit of an outlier with regards to where the lows will position etc, too far north

Does this mean it was wrong? No. But I think the models are just trying to see what happens after day 5, its a fairly unusual situation to be modelling for this time of year! JMA, GEM, UKMO still all fairly on track. A long way from any 2010 scenario though I think, but at least it'll be different then what we've had for the last few months

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943640#Comment_119943640

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943491#Comment_119943491

I don’t think you remember the ECM was often differing with other models in the 2018 spell. It often had the blocking anticyclone too far south to allow a direct feed of cold air advection towards Ireland. It and people's pessimism with it not getting any closer, it's always backdating etc was doing my head in. Oh how times have changed eh!

The GFS 06z is great. Showers or streamers won't be picked up from this range and I'd be willing to place a massive wager there sure would be lots with such a setup of -8C 850s and thickness around 516 dm albeit not sure if the new GFS operational has a low thickness bias like a few of the recent ones did so will have to see on that. I'd just ignore snow depth or accumulation charts altogether unless for the craic and have a laugh. The GFS and ECM are like complete contrasting brothers on them with the ECM assuming every flake that does fall will settle whilst GFS tends to show very little generally speaking but of course can be exceptions like the north on the 18z last night. The slack nature of the airmass over us on the GFS would also in theory lead to some very cold nights particularly where clear skies occur over snow covered fields.

Danno

I wouldn't be overly concerned about the upper 850s on the 00z ECM, less insolation and nearly 16hrs of darkness at this time of year is a bonus.

For example - take these three charts from midnight Thursday going into Friday:

Widespread -4c or lower uppers, widespread +1cs across the island, widespread precipitation. Away from west Munster this should be a snow event and southern Wexford should join in after the mild sector pushes south. Cold is undercutting the front and coupled with evaporative cooling I like this.

The GFS is certainly coming back into line.

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943742#Comment_119943742

Yr actually going for snow in Sligo Thursday and Friday next week. I don't. But theyr a weather service. I'm not.