FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941141#Comment_119941141

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JanuarySnowstor

What's your thoughts Kermit??

Your really quiet last few days. You've been around the block a while, do you think comparisons to 2010 are ott?

Oneiric 3

Chart from early December 1981. Incredible depth and extent of cold in the near Arctic that would be inconceivable today:

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941351#Comment_119941351

Tbh projected charts over Ireland next week look colder, though I get your point re depth of cold

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941325#Comment_119941325

Maybe he's preparing the event thread?

https://media.giphy.com/media/XIqCQx02E1U9W/giphy.gif

torres9kop

Is this nailed on or could it all go tits up?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941424#Comment_119941424

A cold spell is nailed but the real deal that we want is not. ECM and GEM look great, GFS not so great. Would like to see that GFS fall in line with the ECM tomorrow and all models to maintain it.

Oneiric 3

EC Day 10 chart (for Dec 8th) from 2 days ago:

Day 9 chart from yesterday for same date:

And day 8 chart for same day from today's run:

Very subtle difference can be observed between each of the runs but overall, remarkable consistency so far. Question is now is whether this consistency will last.

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941424#Comment_119941424

Nothing is nailed in yet. It will be this weekend before we have a fair idea what will happen by the end of next week. There is some sort of cold spell on the way and all model outputs have been great today. Most important thing for coldies is get the cold in first and then take it from there what follows. As mentioned earlier it is been watch closely by the UKMO and folks in Glasnevin. If we continue to see runs like this over the weekend then we could see a Met Éireann advisory issued Sunday or early next week but we are along way of from that yet.

bazlers

There is alot of convergence, but yes it still could all go tits or belly up..

You will know by the sound of toys breaking as they get flung out of the pram on netweather.

BLIZZARD7

There is still time to go wrong… BUT this is quite the pattern and outlook we are looking at. 1981, 1995, 2010 - whatever your comparison is, this is the real deal.

I’m 90% onboard right now, only the Dec 2012 saga is giving me shivers. Hemispherically this is a 2010 redux, at local levels is a different gig.

The thread of all threads is coming from Kermit, he is just waiting for more certainty than usual. Everyone is quite likely in for a major shock to the system come next week.

Meteorite58

ECM proving consistent now in its outlook holding the cold trend out to the end of the run and looks promising beyond that too , GFS a bit closer but not as cold until the end of the run where it gets close, GEM similar to the ECM, UKMO looks to be getting there too. The Australian model similar to the ECM also.

Low day time temperatures, freezing setting in quite quickly after dark and widespread, looks like getting colder as the week goes on with day time temperatures struggling to get up over 5C, possibly staying lower in places, sharp frosts getting down to -2 /-3C or more perhaps in inland sheltered areas and frost hollows. Certainly a chance of snow on mountain tops and some hills would think more so in Northern counties, NW and perhaps the likes of Wicklow, will have to see closer to the time the chances for snow on lower elevations.

Interesting to see what becomes of those Lows moving in across Portugal at the end of the run as pointed out by Danno, one of those could become some snow machine if it tracked into the cold, sort of like Storm Emma , not saying it will and not looking as cold in general but not far off but will be interesting watching out for triggers like that and as ever lots of cogs would have to align for something similar to happen .

Great reading from Met Eireann in the link below about Storm Emma to whet the appetitive and past accounts of previous notable cold events.

https://www.met.ie/storm-emma

sryanbruen

No words, what a set of EC clusters this evening. I couldn't resist. Pretty much all very blocked with differing positions on the trough that would be vital to snow or cold air advection from the northeast by day 10. On the whole they're all variations on the same theme.

I will continue sitting on the fence for now though, been bitten too many a time.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941408#Comment_119941408

It's time to play the music.

It's time to light the lights.

Why don't you get things started !???

CirrusBusiness

Would I be correct in saying the ECM tends to handle the cold outcomes better so here's hoping we are entering into a memorable phase of weather next midweek.

NMB

I’m going to be first “ Buy Bread”

seriously though wow is this great or what? I’ll be holding off buying the Lidl ski jacket till 72 hours out, but my oh my this time next week Rodders we’ll be white gold millionaires.

Kermit c’mon make the thread !

Kermit.de.frog

IF still firmly on track by tomorrow evening's noon runs I'll do the first detailed build up thread later tomorrow evening after the 12 ECM! Been a number of years since such an exciting prospect like this but keep the feet firmly on the ground for now!😁

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941600#Comment_119941600

Well either be bitten or frost bitten. GFS is ruining it all but it WILL be cold so thats a start.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941518#Comment_119941518

Ah that 2012 saga was painful. It all went belly up about three days out. Someone on Netweather said at the time that an uptick in solar activity may have scuppered it. So lets hope for no major uptick in Solar activity in the coming weeks.

Derekon2021

Joanne Donnelly has just mentioned the "s" word on RTE1 weather...........that's that so!

D

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941963#Comment_119941963

I honestly doubt a sudden spike in sunspot activity would have had an immediate effect on a synoptic scale weather pattern to be honest. That said, I don't remember that particular occasion in 2012 at all.

Kermit.de.frog

The consistency between the models now is quite similar to pre-BFTE at this sort of range. Confidence is high of at least a cold period of weather broadly from the east / north east coming. Question is how cold and what are the prospects for icy conditions and snowfall? Upgrades could come one after another here. It's a great time of year too. Sun is weak, nights are long, less solar radiation heating surfaces... In terms of timing it's great for snow fans --- if it comes off.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942009#Comment_119942009

Well i honestly don't know. Those were the thoughts of Stuart Rampling over on Netweather at the time, but maybe you are right he was scrambling for an explanation. As you can imagine there was a complete meltdown on Netweather at the time.

igCorcaigh

From a certain poster on Twitter, they predict that this will be a month long cold spell, with a warming pre Christmas, and maybe a reload of cold temperatures after that? Any thoughts on the duration of below average temps that we may be looking at?

(As much as I love seasonality, this could be a difficult winter for many people facing inflated energy costs).

PokeHerKing

Still day 8-10 before any 2010 style cold reaches our shores. I think references to that type of event are far to premature. GFS has been wobbling for 2 days now.

A seasonal start to winter is locked in though, fingers crossed for anything more for now.

Donegal Ken

The end of the 18Z GFS run tonight is really something else eye candy. Have to add these charts for archive sakes. -12C in the northwest with 20cm plus snowfall. Lying snow helping aid Colder temperatures.

Danno

18z GFS

Danno

Derry and Donegal fighting over -9c...

BLIZZARD7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942010#Comment_119942010

I would agree here. Assuming tomorrows output continues the trend - this is it. I’m not saying this will be a re run of 2010, that was the coldest month ever recorded in Ireland, and as such I don’t think it’s a great year to always be comparing to!

Having said that, this is an exceptionally unusual pattern at any point in the year, never mind December ! I’m somewhat surprised and excited that we are heading into a potentially historic cold spell given the recent run of consecutive warm months.

These are exceptional times, IF, BIG IF, This comes off- enjoy it, these spells are so so rare historically - and this looks to be a major one…

I will be 100% onboard tomorrow.

Danno

If the above charts don't give a little confidence boost, remember the 33c in July and the 32c in August were fairly well flagged in advance by the models from quite a distance off too.

BLIZZARD7

I don’t know what the air pressure is for this chart, but assuming a slack flow over embedded cold and snow fields… any lows could challenge those set in 2010. It’s the optimum time of year in terms of solar output and dark hours.

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942557#Comment_119942557

Low pressure over Wales, but looks a shallow enough feature.

.Donegal.

First time this autumn/winter that xcweather has snow forecast for my location. It only goes out as far as next Thursday but has a massive 0.2cm of snow for next Wednesday night.

bazlers

Well 1st of Dec.

Its beginning to look alot like christmas...but not as we know it.

ECM looking pretty good

More north and west you are the better. More runs to come.

If it goes too far west its not advantageous for anyone.

SmithsFan

Out of curiosity, why are some of the posters in this forum "excited" about a cold spell, or what could in fact be an exceptionally cold spell?

bazlers

Personally its probably the child in us...a bit of nostalgia rolled in..escapism...a break from the norm...and there is something about a really cold snowy period that can bring communities together. Kids playing on the green making a simple snowman.

Getting back to the outputs and still nothing nailed on. It will be seasonal for sure though.

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942914#Comment_119942914

This has been gone over a million times in here over the years. Same when there's a storm same when there's heavy snow or any extreme weather forecast. The answer is people in here have an interest in the weather and usually the extremes of weather. That's it.

Anyway, after a quick flick through in work they look to be fantastic charts again this morning.

BLIZZARD7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942929#Comment_119942929

This^ 100%. I also personally just enjoy colder and snowy weather in general.

The trend is the same this morning, finer details yet to be decided. ECM op run is very much a possibility but isn’t the best for delivering deep sustained cold - a bit more marginal for most but could provide better snow potential for those in the northern half of the country, especially in-land. Hemispherically- the PV is in tatters early on.

UKMO looks like it would be better in terms of delivering the more certain colder/snowy route like the GFS/GEM are showing.

GFS control run is my favourite option this morning, a beautiful east/north-easterly with embedded features in the flow -

gerrybhoy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942914#Comment_119942914

The child in us all, out playing in the snow, snowball fights making snow men/women (for the PC brigade) just takes folk back to simpler times, now most have kids who also love the snow. There is also folk who study all types of weather and follow storms etc. religiously.

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942914#Comment_119942914

Why do some people get excited when Manchester United, a team in a foreign land, start winning all their games or sign a new star player?

Why do some people get excited when their political party start polling well ahead of an election?

Why do some people get excited when Garth Brooks announced he is playing Croke park?

Why are some people forever miserable and never get excited about anything in their lives but go moaning on internet boards about people who get excited about an interesting variation in the weather?

glightning

You can’t change it. The weather will do whatever it likes regardless.

Some people talking on a forum isn’t going to influence the weather in any way.

If cold is coming, then it’s coming. Some of population won’t like that. Some will.

Reckless Abandonment

And back to the modeles..

Not as clean cut as yesterday. Cold rain probably. Hopefully it will swing back to a more snowy set up in the next run.

glightning

Just a quick point about the 2010 comparisons. Personally don’t see this as the same. The 2010 artic outbreak got its source air all the way from artic Alaska. The airmass moved over the pole and down over us. It was extremely cold air.

Pattern looks good this year, but airmass fundamentally may not be from as cold a source.

pistolpetes11

Keep it on Topic please , the weather will do what it will do and whatever people relish , dream or hope for will have no bearing on what the weather does .

It is a forum for weather enthusiasts, by all means if you feel a need, open a thread about lashing rain and wind as the preferred choice for the winter months like we usually get .

DOCARCH

Mod Note: Please stay on topic. Off topic posts will be removed. It's a weather forum...people on here like weather!

EDIT: Posts deleted to try and stay on topic.

Cluedo Monopoly

Roughly speaking, when is this cold event due to peak? I am trying to plan best day to head for the hills. Sounds like the deep cold will arrive around Dec 10th?

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943376#Comment_119943376

That unfortunately is not known.

Keep watching the models and the forecast closer to the time.

At the moment it looks like the second week of December is coldest.

Gonzo

This mornings ECM not great as it's far too marginal, certainly not as good as yesterday evenings ECM. The other models look decent but I don't think we're there yet in terms of what we really want. We would need more upgrades across all models if it's a 2010 style event everyone is after. I feel this one still has a few days to go before we can be sure what way this is going to go, will it be cold enough for snow at low levels and will there be precipitation to begin with!

nacho libre

GFS switches to something more favourable, then ECM shows something less promising if it's deep cold and snow you're after. I feel the next ECM ouput could be telling, if it's similar to this run. What we don't want to see is the other models then backing it. It's a pity we can't have the cross model agreement like we had in 2018, if only to spare the remaining hairs on my head:)

Gonzo

The 12z set of runs today will definitely be telling if we're heading towards an event worthy of a new thread or a cold spell with mixed precipitation in places which would not deserve it's own thread. The 12z runs could still be mixed signals between the models, we could be waiting till early next week for a clear picture where we are at.