FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Billcarson

Typical that when the ECM has a run that's not as good as it's recent output the GFS takes up the baton and has a run that's better then it's own recent output. The joys of model watching lol.

pauldry

I still see nothing bar cold rain and sleet. Maybe it will upgrade next week but just looks wet and cold for next week temperatures 4 to 7c and some ice

Gonzo

GFS 6z also not what you want if you want snow. It's a mostly dry setup with a few coastal showers into Donegal and the rest of the country dry.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943640#Comment_119943640

I'd take cold and dry rather then cold rain and sleet though if it came down to it. Providing if it wasn't quite cold enough for snow. Cold and dry is the next best option.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943605#Comment_119943605

Could very well be the case. While many of the charts look very good at least on paper, we should remember it's only early December. I think 2010 skewed people's perception about cold spells before Christmas. More often then not any snow is reserved for the hills before Xmas especially in coastal counties.

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943605#Comment_119943605

Next week high temps for Tullamore.

2.c max friday afternoon.

As we get closer to the event the onlin forecasts will catch up to what the models where and are showing.

The above is yr. Weather.

SleetAndSnow

Saw this on Netweather, looks like the ECM OP is a bit of an outlier with regards to where the lows will position etc, too far north

Does this mean it was wrong? No. But I think the models are just trying to see what happens after day 5, its a fairly unusual situation to be modelling for this time of year! JMA, GEM, UKMO still all fairly on track. A long way from any 2010 scenario though I think, but at least it'll be different then what we've had for the last few months

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943640#Comment_119943640

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943491#Comment_119943491

I don’t think you remember the ECM was often differing with other models in the 2018 spell. It often had the blocking anticyclone too far south to allow a direct feed of cold air advection towards Ireland. It and people's pessimism with it not getting any closer, it's always backdating etc was doing my head in. Oh how times have changed eh!

The GFS 06z is great. Showers or streamers won't be picked up from this range and I'd be willing to place a massive wager there sure would be lots with such a setup of -8C 850s and thickness around 516 dm albeit not sure if the new GFS operational has a low thickness bias like a few of the recent ones did so will have to see on that. I'd just ignore snow depth or accumulation charts altogether unless for the craic and have a laugh. The GFS and ECM are like complete contrasting brothers on them with the ECM assuming every flake that does fall will settle whilst GFS tends to show very little generally speaking but of course can be exceptions like the north on the 18z last night. The slack nature of the airmass over us on the GFS would also in theory lead to some very cold nights particularly where clear skies occur over snow covered fields.

Danno

I wouldn't be overly concerned about the upper 850s on the 00z ECM, less insolation and nearly 16hrs of darkness at this time of year is a bonus.

For example - take these three charts from midnight Thursday going into Friday:

Widespread -4c or lower uppers, widespread +1cs across the island, widespread precipitation. Away from west Munster this should be a snow event and southern Wexford should join in after the mild sector pushes south. Cold is undercutting the front and coupled with evaporative cooling I like this.

The GFS is certainly coming back into line.

pauldry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943742#Comment_119943742

Yr actually going for snow in Sligo Thursday and Friday next week. I don't. But theyr a weather service. I'm not.

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119944944#Comment_119944944

This is based on the ECMWF weather model in which they use. This will swap and change a lot over the coming days. It could be Tuesday or Wednesday before we know anything about snowfall.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945243#Comment_119945243

I think the same applies to the weather charts on the Met site/app

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945251#Comment_119945251

Yes they use the harmonie weather model up to around 60 hours and then past +60hrs the use the ECMWF model. For example if you put into Met Eireann app or website now Bundoran, Donegal it shows snowfall for next Friday.

Oneiric 3

Models shaping up nicely:

https://twitter.com/sovietvisuals/status/1211944760405110785

Captain Snow

Good Lord have you seen the 12zz.

Get the snow chains out.

What a run.

Peeps be flat out curtain twitching and lamp post watching.

glightning

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119943684#Comment_119943684

Cold and very frosty is the next best option :)

….Then, cold and dry ;-)

Gonzo

GFS 12z looking very nice indeed, however we are still 12 days away from the real cold so along way to go.

The entire country is covered in snow by the end of this run.

GFS at +216 hours. Teasing us it is…..

SleetAndSnow

Taken from netweather, but the ensembles are very close together, no really big fluctuation on this GFS run?

Interesting!

bazlers

Just a question dont eat me alive but does the potential cold spell seem to get pushed back a day each day?

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945608#Comment_119945608

It may have gotten delayed by a few days overall for the real cold but that's a bonus really as it should be starting to get colder overall as we head into the midpoint of the month. This upcoming cold spell is still a bit early for my liking, I would much rather we see this setup after Christmas.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945608#Comment_119945608

First rodeo? 🤣

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945615#Comment_119945615

Careful what you wish for, this has all the hallmarks of another wild goose chase that never gets closer than the 8-10 day range.

nacho libre

GFS is very nice. I just hope if the GFS is correct we could hang on to the cold till Christmas- although that's a big ask, especially as we seem to lose the Greenland High way out in FI. There is cold air entrenched over us, i just wonder would it be enough to see off a weak Atlantic thereafter?

Artane2002

In isolation, pushbacks should not be a cause for concern. Delays of up to 3 or 4 days happen very often with weather events, with the BFTE in 2018, the February 2021 easterly, and the July 2022 plume being some examples that come to mind. It's a case of a model seeing a signal and developing things too quickly. The time to worry is when delays are coupled with downgrades.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945624#Comment_119945624

Unfortunately its not my first Rodeo🙃. We will give it until Sunday!

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945652#Comment_119945652

I could have swore the BFTE came in like a train and models pushed it forward.

I am gtting that bit older though!

pauldry

Did ye not learn anything from last years bust?

Was supposed to be blizzards around Christmas then too? However this looks colder so we might get snow for a couple of hours some night

After that itl be "where did all these mild charts come from".

JanuarySnowstor

Best ECM yet just coming out!!

Kermit, your time has come!! Looking forward to the mother of all ramps

Artane2002

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945701#Comment_119945701

From what I remember, it was meant to properly hit on the 25th but it came on the evening of the 27th. I could be wrong about this since it's been almost five years but the other two examples I mentioned are definitely accurate.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945724#Comment_119945724

Pauldry you’ve been hurt too many times! This could be the one

SleetAndSnow

Just if anybody does want to look, heres the technical thread for the BFTE in 2018 :) Was great looking back https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2057844498/cold-spell-late-feb-early-march-technical-discussion-only-mod-note-post-1#latest

squonk

Until I look out the window and not only see snow falling but it also sticking as well I won’t hold my breath.

Im just happy to get some seasonal weather and I even enjoyed being out and about today so if this is as good as it gets but we get a few weeks of it, I’ll be happy enough.

BLIZZARD7

I’m all in. Day 5 ECM is simply stunning. Winter is coming!

Day 6 - Deep cold arriving

SleetAndSnow

This is fast moving, day 6. Beast from the North East? 😍

.Donegal.

Day 6

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119945759#Comment_119945759

Well at least it is back showing something promising incoming on the 6th.

Great chart.

nacho libre

Fantastic. It speeds everything up. Hope the GFS now does the same.

bazlers

Donegal would need JCBs not snow shovels ; ). Good sign to see things move forward but Gonzo has a point too if it arrives later in the month.

CirrusBusiness

12Z is stunning! Winter incoming! Looking forward to Kermit's thread.

Artane2002

I imagine the ECM would deliver seriously cold minima locally under snow cover. I wish the low would scurry off to the south though so we can tap into the cold over Scandinavia!

Little snowy old me

We are in Lanzorote at the moment. It has been 23°C to 25°C every day since last Friday. Hearing talk of snow at home next week.... we are back Wednesday.

igCorcaigh

Might get a bit chilly alright.

https://twitter.com/MeteoAtlas/status/1598388508099575819

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119937208#Comment_119937208

Remember who warned ye first on this cold spell, good ol JS Lol

Awesome charts tonight, easily the best since 2010!

Niall145

Looks like it's happening; ECM showing decent snow for Dublin & Wicklow on both Friday and Saturday mornings next week!

SleetAndSnow

Day 10, this is a long one

Danno

Above: GFS - snow accumulations - You keep marching west you beautiful blues!

Above: ECM 850hPa temperatures from todays 12z

Villain

ECM ensembles are fairly tight there, good agreement in general on the 850 temps, lots even lower near the end. Precipitation has op been a big outlier though so those snow charts nearly are useless.

Danno

-10c across the glens of Antrim!

Meteorite58

Interesting reading back over all the posts. Very cold charts all round now, blocking in place and ECM introducing very cold shallow LP's and their associated fronts and troughs ,cold mid level and very cold upper temperatures over relatively warm seas should produce a stream of showers in fact ECM looking very wintry now at least, might not be pristine snow but beginning to show potential for wintry weather disruption with hard frost and icy nights and mornings and day time temperatures of only a few degrees, might even struggle to get over 0C in a few places towards the end of the week if there is snow lying, some very cold overnight temps showing up now, down as low as -4 to -6C on the latest run.

Currently showing frontal snow events with snow accumulations on the 12Z, significant in some places but these charts will chop and change over the coming days, for now just looking for the trend and potential and it is certainly there in the current charts. Unusual to see such charts after all the Atlantic driven weather. And no end in sight to the cold spell either !

Just have to include the ECM snow prediction charts of what it could look like if the temperatures, LP, fronts and troughs align 😀 . No harm to post for future reference to see how the models fared this far out, do you remember the predictions for Emma, we thought the models were broken but how right they were.