FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

esposito · 30-11-2022 9:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938427#Comment_119938427

Yes I believe today is the day Para takes over for GFS.

Everyone seems to be comparing to 2010 and then getting disappointed when the current charts are not as good which is understandable I know but 2022 will be 2022 i.e it won’t be the exact same and probably not as good. That’s not to say that this year won’t be memorable. There still could be a fair bit of snow from this event.

pauldry · 30-11-2022 9:49am

My gut feeling is that it will be cold first half of December and there could be snow sometime in this period but not guaranteed then mild for the 2nd half and Christmas.

Billcarson · 30-11-2022 10:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938513#Comment_119938513

Or maybe something like Dec 81 where the cold set in around the 8th ,got milder during Xmas and the cold returned with a vengeance in early jan.

pauldry · 30-11-2022 10:22am

Ya that could happen too. Looking at met eireanns 10 day charts people looking for dry weather may be disappointed. It looks cold and wet a lot of the time. And windy. Nor cold clear and dry like 2010. Maybe January will bring the cold and clear scenario needed for severe frost. This one will only bring temperatures of slightly below zero at night as too much wind and cloud.

mcburns07 · 30-11-2022 10:26am

We seem to get locked in patterns these days so quite hopeful whatever pattern that develops will stick around for a while.

Hopefully this isn't That ECM Mk2 😅

Billcarson · 30-11-2022 10:28am

Dec 8th 81

Ecm Dec 8th 2022

Same kind of idea. Just thought with all the talk of Dec 2010 that Dec 81 has been forgotten .

Donegal Ken · 30-11-2022 10:35am

06Z GFS model run is a big upgrade and starting to come on board with the ECMWF weather model this morning. This is been watched closely now by Met E and the UKMO.

PokeHerKing · 30-11-2022 10:49am

Hmm 6Z starting to look more like the ECM now. Do we dare dream.

Cork2021 · 30-11-2022 11:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938815#Comment_119938815

Feck!!! Bring it on! Just don’t want rain!!! Sick of it

30-11-2022 11:28am

850 uppers, sea level pressure and dewpoints from the 6z run. Uppers trending downwards ok. Dewpoints, need to go lower maybe? Pressure dropping, but is it low enough for an unstable atmosphere, plus theres a fair level of uncertainty out into the run.

Changwhitewater · 30-11-2022 11:28am

The GFS output is looking like an outlier and the real average is probably closer in between the current output and what we saw in the 00z run.

Billcarson · 30-11-2022 11:37am

Surely a cold spell of some description is gaining traction atm. Details far from decided at this stage.

Gonzo · 30-11-2022 11:51am

A cold spell is now looking nailed for the first half of December, however what is not nailed is how cold it will get, will we get snow etc. Perhaps we will have a clearer idea by the end of this weekend what is in store for us during the second week of December.

.Donegal. · 30-11-2022 11:59am

ECM has been more bullish and looking good. ECM mean is also good. Gfs still a bit messy as to what happens. Overall it’s a promising looking picture.

KingdomRushed · 30-11-2022 12:22pm

It is certainly very encouraging that the rot which had set in on the GFS output has stopped and even reversed some this morning, while the ECM is looking beautiful.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey!

⛄️

SleetAndSnow · 30-11-2022 12:26pm

Gut feeling says it will be a halfway house between the insane ECM and the tamer GFS... and the halfway house is still amazing... December 2022 gonna be one for the history books?

Loving the fact that the whole thing seems to start at day 5, so unless we get a complete and utter breakdown, there should be at least some cooling and a more seasonal feel around!

Just for a change from the ECM and GFS.. Heres the JMA! Follows the ECM

Changwhitewater · 30-11-2022 12:42pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939226#Comment_119939226

And JMA was the one that nailed 2010 if my memory serves correctly.

MeteoGroup, which provides weather forecasting services to the BBC, has said the following about Britain for later next week:

From Friday to Sunday cold east to northeasterlies seem most likely, bringing further showery and locally wintry outbreaks, mainly to eastern and northern areas. Some daytime temperatures in the northern UK could struggle to rise above freezing. There will continue to be chances of low pressure systems approaching the southern UK with more widespread rain. If these should nudge farther north then there could be chances of more widespread hill snow on the northern edge.

pauldry · 30-11-2022 1:21pm

This is Dublins weather for next week. Wet and cold but 7c.

Billcarson · 30-11-2022 1:25pm

The Irish Sea is certainly warm at 13c. Only expected to fall back by a degree on the Eastern side by the 5th.

TTLF · 30-11-2022 1:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939423#Comment_119939423

I wouldn't even bother with that honestly. I recall very well checking the "google weather" from weather.com about 4 days before the BFTE and it showed non-sense temperatures of 5C max when we were pretty nailed on to get highs of 1C max by the same date.

Niall145 · 30-11-2022 1:33pm

BBC weather website (usually pretty accurate) showing snow showers and bitterly cold temps in Dublin next weekend, could all change ofc but nice to see

pauldry · 30-11-2022 1:41pm

The sea temps would need to be 5c colder. If it was February I'd be excited. All this will bring is cold windy and wet.

Brendan offaly · 30-11-2022 2:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939522#Comment_119939522

The colder the sea temps the colder the uppers need to be for sea effect snow.

Warm sea , cold uppers will cause heavy beefy snow showers away from coast.

SleetAndSnow · 30-11-2022 2:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939440#Comment_119939440

Imagine those sea temps with very low uppers. The lake effect snow.. One can dream 🤤

PokeHerKing · 30-11-2022 2:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939522#Comment_119939522

-2 air temps will give lake effect snow with current sea temps. So -10uppers required.

Way out in FI before we get them anywhere near the east coast.

Danno · 30-11-2022 3:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939522#Comment_119939522

It wouldn't matter on the west coast really - the breeze there is coming off a good land fetch.

Oneiric 3 · 30-11-2022 4:32pm

Just looking back on similar set ups back in the past for this time of year, and 1985 is interesting. On the 26th Nov, one would have thought that the cold was becoming locked in with a similar pattern that is currently being forecast:

By the 30th, however, and it was clear that this was not the case at all:

Milder conditions found a way to sneak in and they generally stuck around over the first half of the following December at least.

KingdomRushed · 30-11-2022 4:42pm

No downgrades on the 12z operationals thus far...steady as she goes. Each day we tick closer to the Greenland block being pretty much universally forecast across all models, finer details varying however. Very intriguing stuff. Lets look forward to the ECM later on.

highdef · 30-11-2022 4:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939480#Comment_119939480

Must have updated. For this weekend, it's now showing occasional light rain. For next weekend it's showing rain or sleet showers.

SleetAndSnow · 30-11-2022 5:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119940535#Comment_119940535

GFS and UKMO nudging more towards the ECM

GFS slower to get there, has the iberian low further north but is currently on its own with that and other models are moving away from that situation... however I do remember a time, can't remember exactly when, the GFS had a storm in one area and every other model had it somewhere else... and the gfs was correct with other models eventually falling in line

Exciting model viewing in comparison to the last year lol

Danno · 30-11-2022 5:20pm

Ah jaysus!

Cork2021 · 30-11-2022 5:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119940723#Comment_119940723

Must be something going on………..

Gonzo · 30-11-2022 5:24pm

GEM 12z starting to look very nice.

Danno · 30-11-2022 5:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119940740#Comment_119940740

Indeed!

Gonzo · 30-11-2022 6:11pm

The GFS 12z operational is horrible, but it's showing signs in the ensemble graph of being a total warm outlier on it's own.

nacho libre · 30-11-2022 6:17pm

Lets just hope the ECM sticks to its guns and does not move towards the GFS. If so then it will be GFS that's out on it's own against the ECM and GEM. The UKMO looks good at day 7 too.

Danno · 30-11-2022 6:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119940968#Comment_119940968

See that - even the Parallel run goes t*ts up after Monday 10th: Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 12Z

Edit - Curiously, at 384hrs the Parallel and the Operational are carbon copies!

Danno · 30-11-2022 6:23pm

Split ya backstad...

sryanbruen · 30-11-2022 6:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119940992#Comment_119940992

They're carbon copies because the GFS operational is NOW the parallel. Today was the "upgrade" day (although the para was performing worse than the legacy OP recently!). We'll see how it does now as the new OP run.

nacho libre · 30-11-2022 6:36pm

This looks primed... The Aisan lobe of the Vortex will descend on the continent in the next frame or two, surely? That's serious cold enveloping Scandinavia.

Danno · 30-11-2022 6:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941025#Comment_119941025

Ah that makes sense! Didn't realise today was the day the changeover happens!

I've been keeping an eye on the parallel over the past week or so, and it has been less than promising for cold in the weeks ahead.

JanuarySnowstor · 30-11-2022 6:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119937208#Comment_119937208

Following on from what I said last night, we now have cross model support for an exceptional weather event next week akin to 2010.

Not a slushy cool Easterly, rather a bitter Arctic Northeasterly that will probably ground the country to a halt by the end of next week.

Ice, Snow, bitter windchill all combined with very short daylight will likely lead to school closures etc as little thaw will take place

nacho libre · 30-11-2022 6:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941120#Comment_119941120

Halt! From previous experience everytime you ramp, we then get downgrades:) But seriously it is looking promising now next week for some seasonal weather.

Danno · 30-11-2022 6:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119941120#Comment_119941120

Fair play to your optimism! I hope it won't become disruptive though until Christmas itself is in! I'm on early Christmas break from the 14th onwards so will be able to enjoy it.