FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Cracking ECM this morning!! 2010 here we come!

A polar flow from mid next week with temps hovering close to freezing and showery troughs of snow moving South.

We need agreement though, and the others are wishy washy as of yet!

My take is that it is going to be cold for sure but the 2010 style stuff, well I don't see enough certainty to start talking about that. Perhaps in 48 hours it will be more clear. Still 7 days out where ECM is showing a clean polar flow establishing. That's a long time. I remember 72 hours out it all going bust before

It bears reminding that GFS latest model runs are nowhere near as bullish as the ECM. MT's forecast reflects that. It's going to be a case of GFS vs ECM with the winner declared by the weekend on the potential or not of wintriness upcoming. My bets are on GFS unfortunately because ECM burned me in 2012. I rarely back winners though....

Whatever happens, it’s differences at day 5 that are making all the difference here, not just fantasy out at day 10. The ECM has heavy snow showers moving in on a North Easterly by Wednesday night next week. That would deliver us a 2010 style setup for at least a little while.

ECM Day 6 Mean - only going one way from here

ECM Day 10 Mean - that’s an extremely strong signal for D10

GFS more messy but has taken steps towards the ECM overnight.

GEFS for Dublin - Below average and cold throughout

Caution still very much needed but we have moved towards a colder solution today, that’s clear on the GFS/GEFS this morning. Our fate will be made clear in the next 36 hours, but I’m very much onboard if this time tomorrow we have some agreement, the UK Met Office seem bullish on the colder route…

Isn't the gfs getting an upgrade today?

When we see these differences between the models it often ends in some kind of halfway house which still probably wouldn't be too bad.

My gut feeling is that it will be cold first half of December and there could be snow sometime in this period but not guaranteed then mild for the 2nd half and Christmas.

Ya that could happen too. Looking at met eireanns 10 day charts people looking for dry weather may be disappointed. It looks cold and wet a lot of the time. And windy. Nor cold clear and dry like 2010. Maybe January will bring the cold and clear scenario needed for severe frost. This one will only bring temperatures of slightly below zero at night as too much wind and cloud.

Dec 8th 81

Ecm Dec 8th 2022

Same kind of idea. Just thought with all the talk of Dec 2010 that Dec 81 has been forgotten .

Hmm 6Z starting to look more like the ECM now. Do we dare dream.

Surely a cold spell of some description is gaining traction atm. Details far from decided at this stage.

ECM has been more bullish and looking good. ECM mean is also good. Gfs still a bit messy as to what happens. Overall it’s a promising looking picture.

Gut feeling says it will be a halfway house between the insane ECM and the tamer GFS... and the halfway house is still amazing... December 2022 gonna be one for the history books?

Loving the fact that the whole thing seems to start at day 5, so unless we get a complete and utter breakdown, there should be at least some cooling and a more seasonal feel around!

Just for a change from the ECM and GFS.. Heres the JMA! Follows the ECM

This is Dublins weather for next week. Wet and cold but 7c.

I wouldn't even bother with that honestly. I recall very well checking the "google weather" from weather.com about 4 days before the BFTE and it showed non-sense temperatures of 5C max when we were pretty nailed on to get highs of 1C max by the same date.