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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward for Winter 2022/2023.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Ok, I've had enough of this Autumn and with a week of it still to go, I thought it would be a good idea to open the Winter FI thread extra early, as the GFS short range models are already showing us an insight into the first week of December at this stage.

After what seemed like over a year of relatively dry and high pressure dominated weather, the autumn brought a significant pattern change to something much wetter since September 2nd. We are still currently in this very unsettled Atlantic dominated pattern but it does look like a change could possibly be happening just in time for the gates of winter of swing open!

The models are currently playing around with high pressure for the 1st week of December but what they are not sure of is the high pressures position. The positioning of the high pressure at this time of the year is critical to how cold or mild it could be. If the high sits right over us expect plenty of frost and maybe fog. If the high sits to our east, expect mild southerlies or south-westerlies. If the high is just off our west expect a cool north-westerly flow from the Atlantic. If the high pulls out to the mid Atlantic expect maybe a cold northerly shot. If the high positions itself between Iceland and Scandinavia, expect some sort of very cold north easterly etc.

The GFS 12z just rolled out and is showing a rather chilly 1st week to December as heights try to rise towards Greenland. We begin winter December 1st with a rather chilly easterly wind from the Irish/North Sea. This should be a much dryer scenario than what we are currently in. There maybe some showers on Irish sea coasts but at this stage unlikely to be wintry.

We generally keep this easterly going through the 1st week of December but it is not a proper cold easterly, a rather cool and slightly unsettled easterly so eastern and northern areas would expect showery outbreaks of rain at times, It would feel very raw in this setup but unlikely to be cold enough for snow away from high ground as we are not drawing in a properly cold easterly.

We finish up with heights trying to rise over Greenland and Iceland.

This particular run doesn't really get high pressure sitting over us, so less in the way of frost and fog with this one compared to some of the earlier GFS runs I seen over the past few days. There is an overall cooling trend for the first week of December but nothing properly cold either. Overall it looks like we should get a respite from the Atlantic for at least a week, although it may not be completely dry. There is alot of uncertainty to the first week of December as the positioning of the high and the overall strength of it will be key to how dry we get, if it will become chilly and frosty or could we potentially open the doors to something colder from the north or the east. Alot to play for but it does look like we will begin winter on a slightly more seasonal note than usual.

Once we get the next week out of the way, things should start to become a bit dryer, but not completely dry either. Expect this outlook to change quite a bit over the coming week especially with the positioning of the high pressure. After a very mild to warm and highly unsettled November, these charts make a welcome change and I wouldn't be surprised if the first week to 10 days of December end up fairly chilly and more seasonal.

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Changwhitewater

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119939226#Comment_119939226

And JMA was the one that nailed 2010 if my memory serves correctly.

MeteoGroup, which provides weather forecasting services to the BBC, has said the following about Britain for later next week:

From Friday to Sunday cold east to northeasterlies seem most likely, bringing further showery and locally wintry outbreaks, mainly to eastern and northern areas. Some daytime temperatures in the northern UK could struggle to rise above freezing. There will continue to be chances of low pressure systems approaching the southern UK with more widespread rain. If these should nudge farther north then there could be chances of more widespread hill snow on the northern edge.

SleetAndSnow

Gut feeling says it will be a halfway house between the insane ECM and the tamer GFS... and the halfway house is still amazing... December 2022 gonna be one for the history books?

Loving the fact that the whole thing seems to start at day 5, so unless we get a complete and utter breakdown, there should be at least some cooling and a more seasonal feel around!

Just for a change from the ECM and GFS.. Heres the JMA! Follows the ECM

KingdomRushed

It is certainly very encouraging that the rot which had set in on the GFS output has stopped and even reversed some this morning, while the ECM is looking beautiful.

Slowly slowly catchy monkey!

⛄️

.Donegal.

ECM has been more bullish and looking good. ECM mean is also good. Gfs still a bit messy as to what happens. Overall it’s a promising looking picture.

Gonzo

A cold spell is now looking nailed for the first half of December, however what is not nailed is how cold it will get, will we get snow etc. Perhaps we will have a clearer idea by the end of this weekend what is in store for us during the second week of December.

Billcarson

Surely a cold spell of some description is gaining traction atm. Details far from decided at this stage.

Changwhitewater

The GFS output is looking like an outlier and the real average is probably closer in between the current output and what we saw in the 00z run.

[Deleted User]

850 uppers, sea level pressure and dewpoints from the 6z run. Uppers trending downwards ok. Dewpoints, need to go lower maybe? Pressure dropping, but is it low enough for an unstable atmosphere, plus theres a fair level of uncertainty out into the run.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938815#Comment_119938815

Feck!!! Bring it on! Just don’t want rain!!! Sick of it

PokeHerKing

Hmm 6Z starting to look more like the ECM now. Do we dare dream.

Donegal Ken

06Z GFS model run is a big upgrade and starting to come on board with the ECMWF weather model this morning. This is been watched closely now by Met E and the UKMO.

Billcarson

Dec 8th 81

Ecm Dec 8th 2022

Same kind of idea. Just thought with all the talk of Dec 2010 that Dec 81 has been forgotten .

[Deleted User]

We seem to get locked in patterns these days so quite hopeful whatever pattern that develops will stick around for a while.

Hopefully this isn't That ECM Mk2 😅

pauldry

Ya that could happen too. Looking at met eireanns 10 day charts people looking for dry weather may be disappointed. It looks cold and wet a lot of the time. And windy. Nor cold clear and dry like 2010. Maybe January will bring the cold and clear scenario needed for severe frost. This one will only bring temperatures of slightly below zero at night as too much wind and cloud.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938513#Comment_119938513

Or maybe something like Dec 81 where the cold set in around the 8th ,got milder during Xmas and the cold returned with a vengeance in early jan.

pauldry

My gut feeling is that it will be cold first half of December and there could be snow sometime in this period but not guaranteed then mild for the 2nd half and Christmas.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938427#Comment_119938427

Yes I believe today is the day Para takes over for GFS.

Everyone seems to be comparing to 2010 and then getting disappointed when the current charts are not as good which is understandable I know but 2022 will be 2022 i.e it won’t be the exact same and probably not as good. That’s not to say that this year won’t be memorable. There still could be a fair bit of snow from this event.

Billcarson

Isn't the gfs getting an upgrade today?

When we see these differences between the models it often ends in some kind of halfway house which still probably wouldn't be too bad.

John.Icy

GEM did join the ECM overnight however (even if not as good).

GFS having none of it though. A wild goose chase is right.

BLIZZARD7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938287#Comment_119938287

Whatever happens, it’s differences at day 5 that are making all the difference here, not just fantasy out at day 10. The ECM has heavy snow showers moving in on a North Easterly by Wednesday night next week. That would deliver us a 2010 style setup for at least a little while.

ECM Day 6 Mean - only going one way from here

ECM Day 10 Mean - that’s an extremely strong signal for D10

GFS more messy but has taken steps towards the ECM overnight.

GEFS for Dublin - Below average and cold throughout

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=113&y=34

Caution still very much needed but we have moved towards a colder solution today, that’s clear on the GFS/GEFS this morning. Our fate will be made clear in the next 36 hours, but I’m very much onboard if this time tomorrow we have some agreement, the UK Met Office seem bullish on the colder route…

PokeHerKing

That ECM is a wild goose chase, day 10 dreaming. I reckon it will slowly join the GFS and it has plenty of time to do so.

Condor24

It bears reminding that GFS latest model runs are nowhere near as bullish as the ECM. MT's forecast reflects that. It's going to be a case of GFS vs ECM with the winner declared by the weekend on the potential or not of wintriness upcoming. My bets are on GFS unfortunately because ECM burned me in 2012. I rarely back winners though....

tiegan

Lads after the last 3 months of constant rain, I am just excited at the prospect of a dry week!! Anything else would be the icing on the cake! Oh how my expectations have lowered!!

KingdomRushed

My take is that it is going to be cold for sure but the 2010 style stuff, well I don't see enough certainty to start talking about that. Perhaps in 48 hours it will be more clear. Still 7 days out where ECM is showing a clean polar flow establishing. That's a long time. I remember 72 hours out it all going bust before

Condor24

ECM charts are ones to drool over in the latter stages, but, as ever, caution needed and over-optimism avoiding. The unrelenting weeks of the same pattern of mild wet weather interspersed with brighter showery days had to end, and here we are. Possibly later next week we will be in a proper wintry spell, we will see.

JanuarySnowstor

Cracking ECM this morning!! 2010 here we come!

A polar flow from mid next week with temps hovering close to freezing and showery troughs of snow moving South.

We need agreement though, and the others are wishy washy as of yet!

NMB

2012 was my Vietnam I’d the thousand yard stare for days after those charts just downgraded a few hours out.

However I still keep coming back for more every winter! The tantalising Greenie High prospect is getting me excited I have to admit. From looking at the charts with the potential set up in the making, that door to winter could be an absolute floodgate when it opens- I mean it could all upgrade super quick. I’m throwing all caution to the wind and jumping on the express train “Winter is Coming!”

[Deleted User]

In a way I wish 2010 never happened, absolutely everything gets compared to it.

(Missed most of it, was living in France at the time, so I may be somewhat bitter 😋)

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119937208#Comment_119937208

I love your optimism JS but as Danno said a lot of us have been burnt so many times that we almost expect that it won’t pan out the way we want it to. I am happy that it will feel seasonable for December. Not often we can say that these days.

igCorcaigh

I know this a very low bar... but, will it be at least dry and calm, if not terribly cold?

I just want the last two months of constant miserable rain and wind to go away. 😩