Winter 2022-23 - General Discussion

Supercell · 25-10-2022 10:07am

DAA planning for snowmageddon this winter ✈️❄️⛄️

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/snow-patrol-40-new-massey-fergusons-bound-for-dublin-airport/

Loughc · 25-10-2022 10:28am

Only read yesterday one of the tabloids were recommending a hotter than average winter upcoming.

Makes sense if we have invested in snow plows haha

mr.stonewall · 25-10-2022 10:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119790297#Comment_119790297

This is standard practice for the DAA. They rent approx 40 new tractors annually for the winter. These are then sold onto farmers thru dealers in the spring. Big change for the DAA to go to red tractors as it was always blue and green.

A bit of advertising for the dealer to help to have homes found for them in the spring. Big wait times on new machines. Average wait time off 10-12 months for a tractor. that's from ordering to delivery

almostthere12 · 25-10-2022 11:13am

CFS long range is giving plenty of cold incursions from the east and north in December and January.

Danno · 25-10-2022 7:03pm

Preparing for Winter

One year, a young Ojibwe boy was given the task of ensuring the entire village had enough wood for winter. This was the first time he had been given such an honor and he wanted to do it right. Before he went to work he decided to call the weatherman to ask what kind of a winter was to be expected. The weather man told him it was going to be a warm and uneventful winter. The boy thought to himself, 'this is great. I won't have to work too hard and I'll be able to look good in front of the whole tribe.'

Just to be safe, he gathered a few of his friends and they went to work for a week. At the end of the week, after chopping and piling the wood, the boy decided to give the weatherman a second call. The weatherman told him it was going to be a very cold winter. Shocked at this sudden change and not wanting to disappoint the elders of his village, he gathered more of his friends and they went to work. For two weeks they cut and piled wood, hoping that it would be enough to last the whole winter.

Once again the boy called the weatherman and this time the weatherman told him, "Son, its going to be a very bitter, cold and long winter. Maybe the worst winter on record."

Exasperated, the boy had to ask, "What makes you say that sir?"

The weatherman replies, "The Indians are gathering wood like crazy!"

Courtesy: https://indiancountrytoday.com/archive/native-humor-preparing-for-winter

Summarises some of this thread! 🤣

Niall145 · 25-10-2022 9:10pm

Looking forward to our 1 day of winter

JanuarySnowstor · 25-10-2022 10:36pm

The lack of proper cold to our North is a worry as we head further into November. We are as well off with warm Southerly's for now as there is nothing of note to our North/East.

On a positive note this Autumn is quite like 2009 and we all know what happened a week before Christmas!

antimatterx · 25-10-2022 10:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119793617#Comment_119793617

My favourite winter. I remember being in 2nd year in school and the schools postponed reopening in January until the day after my birthday. It was great.

Gonzo · 26-10-2022 11:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119793229#Comment_119793229

1 Day of winter is a bonus in this country. That would mean more winter than we had last winter and in 2019/2020. We've had a terrible run of winters since winter 2018/2019. Barely a flake to be seen since Storm Emma/Beast From the East. Maybe with a bit of luck we may see some white gold this winter.

Billcarson · 26-10-2022 1:34pm

The warmth we've had since the middle of last yr has to end at some point. I thought last month coming in around average might have been the start of a change but this month looks like being yet another above average month.

pauldry · 26-10-2022 1:45pm

In Sligo we have had 8 days that could be classified as colder than normal. Some of these were in June!! We had 2 mornings of snow last Winter but even them days got mild later on. We are still in La Nina and while this brings cold weather to some areas Ireland doesn't seem to be one.

I'd expect mild till 2023 then a few colder outbreaks in January.

Loughc · 26-10-2022 1:51pm

A mild, wet and windy winter does nothing for me. I miss experiencing actual seasons.

M.T. Cranium · 26-10-2022 11:20pm

With this very mild spell seeming to be locked in for a while, let's look at the range of outcomes that can follow such an interval. I have more weather data available for the CET than for Ireland so the years are based on mild late October spells in Britain, I'm sure the same would apply here in almost each case. The winters indicated, in chronological order rather than any sort of relative mildness, would include these (and I have summarized them for those which are further back in the records) ...

1772-1773 _ For its time, a rather average winter, some mixtures of cold and mild spells, coldest mid-February.

1821-1822 _ By Dalton minimum standards, not a very hard winter, but would suit some nowadays

1888-1889 _ For its time, a relatively average or even mild winter, brief cold spells though

1894-1895 _ say no more (coldest Feb other than 1947, severe cold in stages Jan after a mild early Dec)

1927-1928 _ an average to mild winter

(1946-1947) _ (same comment as below for 2010-2011, the milder period was mostly in Nov rather than late Oct, an epic winter followed)

1971-1972 _ a somewhat colder than average winter, late January coldest

1995-1996 _ variable

1998-1999 _ rather mild

2001-2002 _ bland in general

2005-2006 _ turned quite cold at times, Irish Sea NNW streamers mid-Nov, most of the cold spells quite dry, early March coldest

2006-2007 _ one of the mildest winters on record, briefly cold mid-February

2009-2010 _ turned cold mid-December and January very cold, Feb somewhat closer to normal, one of the coldest winters of modern times

(2010-2011) _ (not a primary analogue but 1-10 Nov was very mild then it turned much colder in stages, everyone here will recall the snowstorms of late Nov and Dec, severe cold, relaxing considerably by January 2011 though

2013-2014 _ the gold standard of mild, stormy winters, Darwin in Feb but a constant parade of severe storms all winter

2014-2015 _ a rather dry and bland winter in general

=========================

So we're no further ahead now than before starting the review since it is apparent that any outcome is possible after this sort of spell at this point in time. But it does hold out hope for a good outcome.

antimatterx · 26-10-2022 11:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119795343#Comment_119795343

Snow. Plz snow!

Cool Fool · 27-10-2022 4:06am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119795343#Comment_119795343

Given the perilous gas situation due to Ukraine war it’s exactly what we should be praying for

Graces7 · 27-10-2022 6:58am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119792688#Comment_119792688

Love it! Thank you!

Nabber · 27-10-2022 8:42am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119790509#Comment_119790509

They say The Brothers Grimm and Hans Christian Andersen were inspired by the CFS.

almostthere12 · 27-10-2022 9:22am

See you all in January for the build up!!!

As said earlier the CFS is giving plenty of northern topplers and eastern incursions starting in mid November now and this is the best one in late Jan. Hope there is something behind this modelling as don't remember this many cold snaps in the models last year or the year before this far out.

Nabber · 27-10-2022 9:34am

It’s eye candy, not worth much for deterministic forecasting. Anything beyond teleconnection and pattern recognition isn’t worth the effort

Graces7 · 27-10-2022 9:36am

Happy with whatever comes. So no disappointments or hypes.

NB I am of course well stocked with food and gasbottles etc to support my preparedness for all eventualities.

Cluedo Monopoly · 27-10-2022 9:43am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119798850#Comment_119798850

I like you..don't go.

2 feet of snow for Xmas please.

Gonzo · 27-10-2022 11:06am

Been looking at all the recent CFS runs over the past week but it is very difficult to try and find an overall pattern for the winter as each run is very different to the one previous. There does seem to be a bit more cold modeling going on with it compared to CFS runs in previous years but at the same time, not enough of it to feel confident in the likelihood of a colder than average winter. Overall when you look at all the CFS runs (run 4 times a day)it gives a very mixed winter signal with everything but the kitchen sink thrown into it.

Plenty of Atlantic domination, some short lived ridges of high pressure, some brief cold snaps from the north and the east with many showing the first cold snap around mid November and another one mid to late January, storms and overall a mostly unsettled pattern for the winter. Will keep a close eye on the CFS over the coming month so hopefully we start to see a clearer picture when the gates of winter swing open in 4 weeks time.

Loughc · 27-10-2022 11:45am

One of the things I miss the most from a major weather event particularly a Winter one is the collective energy/buzz on here when one does happen.

It also brings out the best in the weather community and it provides fantastic regional live updates that RTE/MET Eireann just can't do.

Billcarson · 27-10-2022 6:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799503#Comment_119799503

I always love a build up to a big cold spell especially ones that are basically nailed on. The build up to dec 2010 in particular was great. The build up to the mid dec 09 to mid Jan 2010 cold spell. The build up to late Feb early March 2018. Loved the anticipation. Sadly they are getting fewer these days

Danno · 27-10-2022 8:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119801339#Comment_119801339

Sadly they are getting fewer these days.

I wouldn't really agree with this sentiment overall - there was a notable absence of snow in the first decade of the 2000s covering 2001-2009 though we had a pet White Christmas in 2004 from a short cold snap. The 1990s were also poor at the end with sweet FA from January 1996 onwards. The winter of 1988/89 was as bad as 2015/16 for rains, flooding and mildness. The last decade gave us that memorable prolonged deep cold and generous snow from late November through to Stephen's Day and 2017/18 gave us multiple snow events with the BFTE followed by more heavy snow on St Patrick's Day. The snow of early January 2021 was nice as it lasted for several days and night times got down close to -10c in places.

I remember more snow events from my adult years than my kid/teenage years with January 1987 being the standout from my childhood years.

Might also add that the models in the past were less accurate than now and we regularly seemed on the cusp of a snow event, albeit that didn't always materialise. Models seemed to have improved somewhat in the last 5 years, the BFTE event was well modelled.

tiegan · 27-10-2022 8:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119799503#Comment_119799503

For me the most memorable build up was during the night before storm Darwin in February 2014. Only the boardsies had it - I work the night shift so I remember the tingle of anticipation and excitement growing through the night and early morning hours. I told everyone we were in for the storm for hell and they thought I had lost the run of myself. Considering we are on the Tipp/Kilkenny border we got rightly flattened. Nothing else has come close in our neck of the woods. Bring on the winter, anything is better than the current murky muck!!

amacca · 27-10-2022 8:39pm

I'm torn, I love a good decent snowfall but I know it will only bring a load of hard work for me

BFTE was worth it however even though I had burst pipes and animals with no water and roads impassable/,one or two days with most of the daylight spent slaving away feeding by hand what might only take about 20 mins normally...If I was older I might have different feelings

Billcarson · 27-10-2022 9:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119801610#Comment_119801610

I think there was a change over to less cold spells post 87. We did have that cooler period 2008 -2010 . But apart from March 2013 ( which was too little to late anyway )and tbfte in 2018 , a few dustings winter 20/21 i haven't seen much snow since Dec 2010 ,coming up to 12 yrs ago now .

Compare the frequency now to winter 78/79 , Jan 82, got decent snowfall Jan 84. Cold spell Jan 85 ,Feb 86,Jan 87 and the many cold spells that went before going back to the 40s anyway ( think much of the first half of the 70s weren't great and much of the 30s). I think there has been a general decline since 87. I was born in 73 so I admit that I was probably spoilt when it came to cold spells Growing up.

Nabber · 28-10-2022 2:12am

The conditions required for snow in Ireland make it so snow ASL is rare in comparison with locations at the same latitude. Probably driving the passion of the majority of folks in here.

I don’t know that I agree regarding snow getting rarer, notable snow is not consistent enough on the island to say it’s rare or not.

Billcarson · 28-10-2022 9:00am

I grew up in a period when snowfall was more frequent. 77- 87 was a colder period of winters overall. It distorted my view of what irish winters should be like. Growing up I expected decent snowfall at some point most winters. After the jan 87 cold spell I didn't get a decent snowfall again till Jan 1991 . Winters 87/88 to 89/90 were a bit of shock to me. During the winter of 90/91 I thought we were maybe back to better winters again after the mild ones of the late 80s. But that didn't happen.

Winter 2022-23 - General Discussion

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