Horse Racing Bets (win...e/w....place

del roy · 04-10-2022 11:11am

Galway 2.25 Moyode Mist 2pts e/w 16/1 skybet 5 places

Southwell 8.00 Tequilamockingbird 2pts win 7/2 powers

j@utis · 04-10-2022 4:30pm

Hugh Taylor ATR tipped Tequilamockingbird this morning too, price is much shorter now.

del roy · 04-10-2022 8:56pm

again two bad runs today and a loss of 6pts,

bank +25pts

Nottingham 4.55 MUSTARRID 2pts e/w 14/1 Skybet 4 places

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 04-10-2022 9:37pm

goes well this time of the year Mustarrid, likes soft over C/D - win only for me + EW double with BOWMAN (win single also) 12s 7,0.c Kempton. BOWMAN has a good draw in box 2 - and acquitted himself well last time he ran over C/D, which was back in May, when he came a length 2nd to Biggles, and was 2.25lgths ahead of the third

Will also do EW single on SIR OLIVER 11/1 + rev f'cast with Bowman in that Kempton race - 11s looks a bit big here,, and WIN on THE TURPINATOR 6/1 + combi tricast

also in that 7,0'c race LIR SPECIALE ~3/1 fav is interesting on his first go over seven furlongs; has a poor enough draw in box 10, and 3s does look a bit skinny for one that doesn't appear guaranteed to stay on breeding.. possible place/s-lays if similar, or shorter price on the morrow.

MyStubbleItches · 04-10-2022 10:09pm

Jesus Christ, a good thread ruined again. Could ye not just stick to the thread in the gambling forum?

finglashoop · 04-10-2022 11:49pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119702227#Comment_119702227

Multiple personalities need multiple threads to ruin.

Ruined what was an active horse racing forum with all this nonsense.

del roy · 05-10-2022 9:50am

0222--2023 National Hunt Season

again thinking out loud here

Over the last few seasons (well 2 or 3 ) certain stables have had a nightmare of a time, mentioned Tizzards but I could also add Hobbs and Honeywell.

I will start a separate stable tour thread to run with this one to cover the yards so if anyone reads anything that I missed bring it to my attention as its almost impossible to watch everything.

Also the last few weeks of selections/tips

As I said I have access to about 7/8 tipping services some good some bad however once I have a bet I will bang them up here for others who have not the time or couldn't be bothered go thru the form or for others who just want to read

regarding what type of bets we have

what some of us think is value

and others from

the tipping services

we are paid into the tipping services until next April so I will bang the bets up here until then.

BobDole22 · 07-10-2022 10:12am

Any bets today @del roy ?

del roy · 07-10-2022 3:15pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119711950#Comment_119711950

Sorry Bob in the hospital all day yesterday, another stinker on Wednesday from Mustarrid so bank now +21pts

Dundalk 6.00 Superover 2pts e/w 11/2 skybet 5 places

3 runs at Dundalk produced three 2nds

del roy · 07-10-2022 4:34pm

Saturday Newmarket 3.40 Inchicore 3pts e/w 18/1 skybet 7 places

del roy · 07-10-2022 4:51pm

Saturday Newmarket 3.40 Inchicore 3pts e/w 18/1 skybet 7 places

Earlier this year in April INCHICORE tried 2m plus for the first time, she finished 3rd of 7 runners beaten 4L by AHORSEWITHNONAME. INCHICORE gave AHORSEWITNONAME 12LB and tomorrow gives that horse 1LB so will be 11LB better off for a 4L beating.

That Newbury race was run 10 seconds slower than average and INCHICORE was gaining on the two leaders so I am hoping the extra 1 and 1/2f, the mare seems to like running past beaten horses, 7 places at 18/1 looks generous enough to me.

INCHICORE has actually finished in the first 4 in eight of her 13 races, races over 2m2f for the first time which I am hoping will suit her, the trainer has had two winners in the last two weeks.

3.40 – Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

19/20 – Aged 4 or older

16/20 – Carried 9-2 or less

15/20 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before

15/20 – Had run within the last 2 months

14/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting

14/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out

14/20 – Aged 5 or older

12/20 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before

11/20 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season

11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less

11/20 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower

11/20 – Had run at the track before

11/20 – Won by a NH trainer

9/20 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before

9/20 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price

9/20 – Placed favourites

8/20 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out

5/20 – Winning mares

4/20 – Winning favourites

3/20 – Winners from stall 1

3/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 4 winners)

3/20 – Won last time out

3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson

2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston

2/20 - Trained by Brian Meehan

2/20 – Trained by Philip Hobbs

The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 21/1

Just 4 winning favourites since 1993

Thanks to GEEGEEZ.CO.UK

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 07-10-2022 6:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119713569#Comment_119713569

WD on Super Over del 🤗 me no backee :(

hope all's well after ur visit to ye krankenhaus ☺️

goldenhoarde · 07-10-2022 6:10pm

Nice one. winner at dundalk👍

hope all okay now with you del roy

del roy · 07-10-2022 6:11pm

Dundalk 6.00 Superover 2pts e/w 11/2 skybet 5 places 1st 😀😀😀

13.2pts profit on race

Bank 34.2pts

Saturday Newmarket 3.40 INCHICORE 3pts e/w 18/1 skybet 7 places

Curragh 5.30 DRAGONS CALL 2pts e/w 20/1 powers 6 places

Bets so far 28....6 winners... 14/1..8/1...13/2....11/2...4/1...9/2...

8.00 SKY LEGEND 1pt win 9/1 plus 3pts in the 3 place market skybet 13/8 unpl

3.55 CUMULONIMBUS 2pts e/w 8/1 skybet 4 places 1st

Wednesday...Yarmouth....2.10pm Katyusha 2pts e/w 12/1 skybet 4 places unpl

5.10pm Miss Down Under 1pt e/w 14/1 skybet 5 places 1st

5.35 INCHBAE 11/1 2pts e/w hills 4 places (bet365 14/1 4 places) unpl

8.15 Sterling Knight 20/1 1pt e/w 4 places powers unpl

2.53 Surely Not 2pts win 4/1 1st

5.01pm Sonnetina 1pt e/w 25/1 6 places bet365 unpl

3.40 chief of chiefs 18/1 2pts e/w powers 6 places unpl

5.20 flying moon 2pts e/w 11/1 skybet 5 places unpl

4.30 Super stars 100/3 3 pts win powers 3rd

1.00 SHABANO 2pts e/w 12/1 skybet 4 places unpl

8.30 amazing alba 1pt e/w 28/1 skybet 4 places unpl

8.30 WURLITZER 3pts win 9/2 1st

8.30 SKY LEGEND 2pts e/w 15/2 Hills 4 places 3rd

8.00 MARTINEO 16/1 1pt e/w skybet four places unpl

8.00 HAN SOLO BERGER 2pts e/w 11/1 skybet 4 places unpl

5.35 steps in the sand 12/1 2pts e/w skybet/powers 5 places unpl

7.30 PLANKTON 2pts e/w 14/1 skybet 5 places unpl

3.36 Oo de lally 2pts e/w 22/1 skybet 6 places 6th

7.30 STRIKE RED 2pts e/w 13/2 4 places. 1st

1.50 SIRJACK THOMAS 2pts e/w skybet 5 places unpl

3.05 SEALIWAY 2pts /ew 40/1 powers 5 places unpl

5.55 Madam Fenela 2pts e/w 10/1 skybet 4 places. 4th

6.30 Broughtons Flare 2pts e/w 12/1 4 places unpl

2.25 Moyode Mist 2pts e/w 16/1 skybet 5 places unpl

8.00 Tequilamockingbird 2pts win 7/2 powers 3rd

4.55 MUSTARRID 2pts e/w 14/1 Skybet 4 places unpl

6.00 Superover 2pts e/w 11/2 skybet 5 places 1st

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 07-10-2022 8:12pm

cheers for them two del 🙂 Went with @INCHICORE 18/1 BF S'bk EW 6 places - hope for rain for her; "Good" is going description atm

don't know what you're seeing in @DRAGONS CALL 5.30 Curragh - will leave her off anyhow 😄 - went for Jessie's Poppy Petal @33s BF Sbk

best of luck with them both ! ☺️

PS ur really really good 😁🙌

vandriver · 07-10-2022 8:44pm

Curragh 5.30

del roy · 07-10-2022 9:09pm

Dragons call has raced 31 times however from the 31 races he has only raced twice over 6f at the curragh resulting in a last and 2nd beaten a hd. When he finished last he was rated 75 and when he was beaten a hd he was rated 64. He is rated 64 tomorrow with the claimer who in my opinion is very good actually taking a further 7LB off.

He is drawn 20 of 30 runners, I think the high numbers should be an advantage tomorrow.

del roy · 07-10-2022 9:28pm

Comments from Alan King below

Inchicore could do with the rain returning as she is a mare who revels in the soft. Last week 10.4mm fell on the Rowley Mile, but it has been a dry October so far and 5mm of water were applied on the course on Wednesday and Thursday.

However, there is precious little of the wet stuff expected there today – maybe (1-3mm) late afternoon or early evening – and, with Newmarket describing the ground as ‘good’ for today’s racing and with a dry forecast tomorrow, underfoot conditions won’t be ideal for the mud-loving Inchicore, who won on easy going at Goodwood in May and ran well to finish third when last seen at the Doncaster St Leger meeting.

🤔

She is Galileo offspring so we might get away with it anyway 7 places so fingers crossed

del roy · 08-10-2022 4:33pm

Well INCHICORE was ground dependent and never went a yard on that good ground so 6pts wasted.

Tomorrow Ffos las 3.45 ROBBIE DAZZLER 2pts e/w 16/1 Hills 4 places

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 08-10-2022 8:53pm

rotten luck with Dragons Call in 6f sprint del 😪 might have been involved; high numbers fared well in that race.

BobDole22 · 08-10-2022 10:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119713569#Comment_119713569

Fair play mate hope everything is OK.

del roy · 09-10-2022 11:06am

rotten luck with Dragons Call in 6f sprint del 😪 might have been involved; high numbers fared well in that race.

Yes a day to forget two bets = 10pt loss

Bank +24.2pts

Ffos las 3.45 ROBBIE DAZZLER 2pts e/w 16/1 Hills 4 places

OK can I just explain something here, I have been called an "clueless idiot" for losing 30% of my bank on a 30 runner and 23 runner handicaps.

Lets take a look at the type of horses well some of them we back, I am looking for what I think are well handicapped horses at the moment I back them and with that comes the type of race I back in (mostly handicaps) and the price of the horse.

Again lets take a look at the horses I picked

3.55 CUMULONIMBUS 2pts e/w 8/1 skybet 4 places 1st won next time out 11/8

5.10pm Miss Down Under 1pt e/w 14/1 skybet 5 places 1st won next time out 7/2

8.15 Sterling Knight 20/1 1pt e/w 4 places powers unpl won next time out 18/1

7.30 STRIKE RED 2pts e/w 13/2 4 places. 1st won next time out 12/1

I am looking to try be ahead of the crowd I am trying to see the future improvement in the horse before the horse actually shows it. With this way of betting we will have horses that run stinkers and have crap losing runs.

Regarding the bank comments if we ever get to the dizzy heights of +100 pts I would never back 30pts of that bank in one day but when its early and you are only starting to build the bank we have to

speculate to accumulate

Hope this explains our train of thought on here.

j@utis · 09-10-2022 12:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119713982#Comment_119713982

I see one problem with the winner "stats" like that. They don't take into account the whole field data to show which factors are actually statistically significant, what I mean is, say most winners are older than 4yo but if 90% of the field are older horses then it doesn't mean much, same applies to the rest of such stats (except the draw).

del roy · 09-10-2022 2:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119720895#Comment_119720895

This is true however you have to take what your punting experience has thought you and there were other factors

National hunt trainer which normally do well in this race. 11/20

only 5/20 mares last twenty running's 17/44 in the first four places last 9 years

although the 2nd fav (4/1 won and fav (7/2) was 5th....4 favs from last 20 running's indicate to me its a race worth chancing an outsider just picked one that ran on ground it didn't like which was unusual for a Galileo off spring.

del roy · 09-10-2022 4:53pm

Ffos las 3.45 ROBBIE DAZZLER 2pts e/w 16/1 Hills 4 places 2nd 17/2

4.4pts profit on race

Bank +28.6pts

Monday, Windsor

1.15 makingitup 20/1....2pts e/w Skybet/Hills 4 places

First time cheek pieces, the drop back to 6f, and this kid taking 5LB off makes this interesting add the fact there is rain expected to hit the course overnight so I am willing to play at 20/1.

The kid riding has has 13 rides in the last fourth night and been in the first four 6 times, I know you say what's that got to do with anything however just pointing out he is decent enough plus the fact Andrew Balding uses him a lot so that's good enough for me.

Makingitup finished 6th beaten 4L in a 0-75 handicap at Newcastle last month with 77 and three 75 rated horses in front of him so same rated horses tomorrow hopefully some rain arrives

del roy · 09-10-2022 6:40pm

Yarmouth 3.00 Marquis of York 1pt e/w 22/1 skybet 4 places

I am only risking 1pt e/w on this one as he can pull hard so if the jockey can't settle him thats game over however he ran a decent 4th at Nottingham as a 2yr old finishing 4th to 76..73..73 rated horses, on this similar track in a handicap where anything can win it 22/1 seems ok.

Fahy has sent 37 horses to Yarmouth over the last 5 years with 5 winning and 13 placing.

The jockey has been riding a few for Fahy (strike red 😀)

Alot of these will find this race too far though our fella night be one I will take the chance at 20s

1.15 makingitup 20/1....2pts e/w Skybet/Hills 4 places

First time cheek pieces, the drop back to 6f, and this kid taking 5LB off makes this interesting add the fact there is rain expected to hit the course overnight so I am willing to play at 20/1.

The kid riding has has 13 rides in the last fourth night and been in the first four 6 times, I know you say what's that got to do with anything however just pointing out he is decent enough plus the fact Andrew Balding uses him a lot so that's good enough for me.

Makingitup finished 6th beaten 4L in a 0-75 handicap at Newcastle last month with 77 and three 75 rated horses in front of him so same rated horses tomorrow hopefully some rain arrives

del roy · 10-10-2022 9:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119645273#Comment_119645273

I hope Bourbali needed the race, Joe Tizzards runner at Chepstow on Saturday, led and stopped as if shot three out, no money for it 9/1 out to 11/1 hope its not a sign of things to come.

del roy · 10-10-2022 1:22pm

1.15 makingitup 20/1....2pts e/w Skybet/Hills 4 places 3rd 28/1

I thought for a minute we might get there but too late.

3.00 Marquis of York 1pt e/w 22/1 skybet 4 places 5th 😕

very unlucky not to collect on both bets today with Marquis getting caught for 4th right on the nod but still 4 pts profit on the day.

Bank +32.6pts

Sweet Talkin Romeo · 10-10-2022 6:18pm

nice price on Makingitup there del 😊 me only gets the 18s/20s taken lst night,,

our MADAME FENELLA out again - tackles 6f this time, from 11 berth @ 3,50 Wolves Wednesday; shouldn't be far away,, paper has her at a juicy enuf 12/1

my mate j@utis also has one of her favourite, and rarely backed by her 😄 horses going also, in shape of PORFIN ~13/2 - came 2nd Porfin, in the race where Madame Fenella came 4th, lto

race worth a bitta studying methinks ☺️

del roy · 10-10-2022 7:04pm

Str

yes I only got 20/1 also as skybet do not give greater odds on races they pay extra places

8.05 Captain Vallo 2pts e/w 15/2 powers 4 places