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Horse Racing Bets (win...e/w....place

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    Tipperary 1.50 SIRJACK THOMAS 2pts e/w skybet 5 places



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    Tipperary 1.50 SIRJACK THOMAS 2pts e/w skybet 5 places


    SIRJACKS sire is FAST COMPANY and he is a sire whose Offspring I like backing when the ground is soft/soft to heavy. Back to SIRJACK unfortunately he has not raced at Tipperary before but the course should suit him, a course with an uphill finish on slow ground. He has a dosage of 0.71 so should really be only getting going at the end of the race however SIRJACKS trainer has another runner and he looks like the course will also suit him but SIRJACK has a decent draw in stall 3.

    The trainer has honestly not got great stats over the last five years at Tipperary 3 wins from 46 runners however the places are 11 from 46 (23.91%) but the risk is build in at 18/1 at 5 places.

    Jockey over last five years is only one from 21 rides and 3 places however I do think this kid has improved his riding over the last year.

    I am more interested in the what I think are the horses ability at the course and on the going.

    My father used to say

    if you are backing a horse to do something he has never done before make sure it is build into the price and at 16s ...5 places I think we will take the chance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    Longchamp 3.05 SEALIWAY 2pts /ew 40/1 powers 5 places



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    Longchamp 3.05 SEALIWAY 2pts /ew 40/1 powers 5 places

    Sealiway has a dosage of 67 and was 5th in last years arc when only 3yrs old, in front of him that day was

    Torquator tosso winner lifetime form...... 412312/61211-6122...... lifetime form over 1m4f.....22111212132

    Tarnawa 2nd lifetime form 322/1310119/1111/1220- .....lifetime form over 1m4f .....11th 2nd 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st 11th

    Hurricane lane 3rd lifetime form  1/1131113-38.....lifetime form over 1m4f ....833113 plus won the ledger over 1m6f

    Adayar 4th lifetime form 41/221145-1.....lifetime form over 1m4f......411 4th in arc and derby winner

    I just typed above to show how good an arc last years race was.

    Sealiway came over to ASCOT 13 days later and won the Champion stakes and turned the tables on Adayar beating him 3 and 1/2L.


    I think SEALIWAYS run last year was exceptional only beaten 4 and 1/2L with another year on his back he should be much stronger. I see they did not run SEALIWAY over 1m4f this year keeping him for this race for it to be his first attempt.

    Add in we have a very decent jockey in Mickael Barzalona.

    Now the bad news, the draw ..15. WTF you are saying however high drawn horses can run well in the arc, table below


    Thanks to geegeez.co.uk

    All in all I would rather have 2pts e/w on SEALIWAY @ 40s than 4 pts on any horse in single figures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    picked the wrong McGuinness one sadly :(

    fair play for putting up big/decent priced ones del 😊

    ur on fire so far with ~35pts profit from not too many picks out of the last 3wks or so = 'pretty hard to beat' 😁

    if ya made half that profit putting up ~6/4 shots, there be folk on here callin ya a genius 😎

    fek da begrudgers - ya know ur onions del 👊👏

    ________________________________________________________

    looked at one for tomorrow - on the usual 'Standard' going, and that's unlikely to change; strange that 'Good' weather slows a course down 😃 , and that damp/cold weather does the opposite

    4.46 Wolverhampton

    Hughie Morrison's SHOWMAN ~ 13/8 has done very little to justify that price imo; and in a field with a couple of C/D winners in it to boot. By Kingman, and I think 1m/10fs is more their forte; don't think the 12fs here will be any great help. A possibly place-lay contender for me..

    RED BOND 6/1 WIN is a CD winner from two runs back. He made most that day, and has the plum draw to do so again here. Is only carrying 2lbs more on his back, which shouldn't be a hindrance. Apart from the selection, there doesn't seem to be any out and out frontrunners to hassle him for the lead. He flopped lto, but that was on turf, so can easily draw a line thru that Ayr run. Trainer Keith Dalgleish is in reasonable form too, and the jockey Callum Rodriguez has a 17% strike-rate from the last 21 days, with 8 wins from 48 rides. Being a frontrunner (and hopefully he sets the fractions here) there's always a danger that Red Bond is there to be shot at, but, at the current prices, that's not a major concern. Is a fair price @ 6/1 (BF S'book) from 8s earlier on; think he represents value @ 5/1, and could well go off at ~100/30.

    HOOFLEPUFF is only 8/1 and well out of form, and is one who could be a massive drifter. No bet at them prices, but 5 of his 6 wins (all at the course) have come in the months of September & November, so we can say that he goes well at this time of t'year. Worth a small win bet, in hope, if he goes out to 14s or so..

    just the one bet for me here tho atm, and that's WIN on RED BOND



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    Well two stinkers today however Torquator Tosso finished a very close 3rd coming from last place to hold my view last years race was half decent, our horse just never went a yard in the ground and we are back down to +33pts


    Tomorrow Wolverhampton

    5.55 Madam Fenela 2pts e/w 10/1 skybet 4 places.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    5.55 Madam Fenela 2pts e/w 10/1 skybet 4 places.

    her last run at Ascot reads very well for this race, she dead heated for 5th however the four in front of her were rated

    77...69...68...72...77 best two horses rated in her race tomorrow 70...70

    she was given a lot to do by her jockey, racingpost comments below

    Steadied start, raced freely, held up in rear up the centre, groups merged halfway, pushed along over 2f out, switched left and towards near side 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on inside final 110yds, never on terms (op 25/1)

    she has at least shown she handles the allweather as she is one win, two 2nd places, one 3rd places from 7 races plus a 4th place beaten 3and 1/2L and a 5th place beaten 3L

    Skybet going 4 places and 10/1 which looks big to me.


    6.30 Broughtons Flare 2pts e/w 12/1 4 places



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    ^^


    just saw yer post now del,, Am on Madame Fenella meself ! (independent of you, but sure who'll believe me 😃)

    And Red Bond is now a 4/1 shot for 4.46 - nowt to do with me; i didn't exactly lump on..


    best of luck to us both ☺️



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    just gotta a text from a mate to say Draw 1 over 5f at Wolverhampton is a no no.

    OK we have all seen horses stuck on the rail with nowhere to go but just checked it out

    Last 9 years at Wolverhampton

    1076..... 5f races

    drawn 1 winners .... 145....13.48%

    drawn 1 placers ..... 342.....31.78%

    so a little over 1 in 3 placing, happy to run with that as it is 10/1



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    interesting stat that - fekkit, the horse is 10s, like you said, and not ~6s,, def worth a go at those odds!

    too much 'paralysis by analysis' = there'd be no fun in punting at all 😃



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    According to ATR low draw is okay when there's a handful of runners:

    And very okay when there're 2 handfuls of them:

    Surely it's not a decisive factor but we love a good number game here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    j@utis spittin' them facts - me likee 😊



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    Yeah lads I agree with you punters can over stat/analyse the race they are betting in but I tend to like the way a horse finished or didn't finish his previous races. Yes obviously the more stats in your horses favour the better but you can look at some of the bets I have had on here 33s 25s 20s it is called gambling for a reason but I am betting €20 per point and once I am thinking long term about the bank I should get a decent run out of it.

    I am currently in a few sites with a few other lads which means I can read all of them and only pay a fraction of cost.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    "but I tend to like the way a horse finished or didn't finish his previous races"... I find myself doing that too, I watch replays and makes notes or watch the finish replays when studying cards . Stats are only for the final nudge to back or not to back.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    1:30 Windsor is very tricky affair with many cases could be made for a lot of them. The one I find interesting is Autumn Angel that's still very unexposed for 3 yo, she came back after long lay off to finish 2nd lto but race comments say "eased towards finish", so eased but ran on to grab 2nd, op 14/1 now 9/1, it's her only 2nd start with this trainer, very interesting. PP is paying 5 places in this race, let's go mad and back a half of the field, like leffee does.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Drifted massively before off, and ran accordingly... Vape was well backed at the end and won. Back to drawing board.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    a few saying my old man used for racing

    Horses and trainers are mainly creatures of habit they will keep repeating what and where they did, to gain some success.

    Remember a year in a horses life is nothing, some trainers will finish 2nd or 3rd in a race and plan to come back the following year to try again

    and his best one was for Ireland, it was

    the day you think they wouldn't have the neck to do it will be the day they do it.

    Redundant pal getting beaten by FIROINS LAW in a two horse race and winning the LADBROKE hurdle with top weight next time out.

    Paddy Mullins was asked for an excuse and his answer was something like "my excuse is I have no excuse" 😂😂😂 wtf.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    the day you think they wouldn't have the neck to do it will be the day they do it. I'd add to that that they win when you keep stakes to minimum, like today I only put enough on Surrey Mist in 3:12 Windsor to get my last time lost stake on him in case he comes in, and sure the bugger bombs in easily, leaving me fuming that I should've had more on...



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Madam is not attracting much support in the market. I'm trying to figure out which horse can put up with strong pace from start to finish in that race, favorite for the win at the moment.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    thanks for sharing your v professional sounding insights del to us on here :)

    did ya back me Nap o'er on t'other forum j@u ? - HOSED up at Ponty @ SIX to ONE ! 😊



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Nah, I completely missed it, it literally got lost in between the pages...



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy




  • Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭BobDole22




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    if ya got 4 places, yeah ☺️

    no joy for me, with just the three places offered :(



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    well a fourth and a 5th so a loss of two pts on the day however I thought we were very unlucky to lose the 4 points on Broughtons flare should of easily got 4th but for trouble in running ahh well thats gambling for ya.


    loss of 2pts on the day

    Bank +31pts



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    just gotta a text from a mate to say Draw 1 over 5f at Wolverhampton is a no no.

    could be serendipitous that; noticed a horse last eve, shortly after i saw your post del

    no real 'form' (or recent, at least) to go on, but is top weight/joint topweight in h'cap, and a 'pagejumper' to boot, and a not unfriendly price 🤣

    8.30 Wolves : IGOTATEXT 10/1 EW



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    ^^^

    has a poor draw (10) and aint won in just over two years that Igotatext; race does look like a 'stick a pin in it' job tho' ,,,, couldn't be bothered studying it - one of them races where even the favs could be out with washing



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    no good 🙄

    big Ellison gamble, Idoapologise ~ 11s --> 9/4fav , does the biz from a handy low draw; too hard to fancy on previous form ats



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭del roy


    ONLY THE ONE FOR TOMORROW


    Galway 2.25 Moyode Mist 2pts e/w 16/1 skybet 5 places



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Sweet Talkin Romeo


    cheers del - done him ew 4 places with BF S'Bk

    was 28s earlier with them - some folk got on at fancy prices 🤣



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