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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,819 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Statement without foundation.

    If you look at Sweden, which did not lockdown, it has a noticeably higher excess death than its peer neighbours (which did have restrictions and therefore to some extent buttressed Sweden) while still having same economic contraction.

    England tried to follow the Swedish strategy - do you remember the parties at Cheltenham - and had to abandon it as hospitals filled up. Going into lockdown a week earlier could have saved thousands of lives.

    Coronavirus: enforcing UK lockdown one week earlier 'could have saved 20,000 lives' | Coronavirus | The Guardian

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 594 ✭✭✭Fr0g


    The go to is always to compare with Swedens direct neighbours even though it makes more sense to compare with Europe as a whole. Of course if you do that then Sweden doesn't stand out and fares quite well overall.

    The comment about England is pure speculation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,819 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    The go to is always to compare Sweden with its peer Scandinavian countries, which most resemble it in density and culture. If we were discussing any topic (not just covid), they would be the first countries any intellectually honest person assessing Sweden's performance at X would compare them to.

    One of lowest population density countries in Europe, surrounded by other lower end population density countries which did lockdown, compares well with high population density countries and countries with mega cities? When considering the spread of an infectious disease?

    Country after country imposed measures for the same reason. They saw the deaths rising and they saw the hospitals filling up. This is not pure speculation, this is the declared and evidential reason documented for that decision. Anything else is "pure speculation" without foundation.

    Therefore to suggest measures should be judged only on the profile of those that died is an incomplete if not disingenuous basis.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 594 ✭✭✭Fr0g


    And Florida and north Vs south Dakota etc. It seems that those places that didn't lockdown just coincidentally had average or better outcomes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,819 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Untrue. Florida did lockdown, and had regional lockdowns on Miami region.

    The Dakotas? Let me guess, low population density state surrounded by states which did impose lockdowns or measures?

    Yeah, you might get away with that to an extent when you are a Dakota or a Sweden, it simply doesn't scale. Try it in London, New York, Paris or region wide and see what happens.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,962 ✭✭✭✭Johnboy1951


    While reading an article today by Laura Dodsworth, I came across a reference to Covid only deaths in UK which were also a small percentage of the whole, so the numbers I posted earlier, would seem to be not so strange as at first appeared to me.

    Now I have no idea how reliable this writer is, and am not concerned with how she views the situation, so I am making no claims about what is written, but I thought to copy the relevant part here for discussion ...

    But there is an urgent health situation that too few people are talking about. Non-Covid excess deaths are worryingly high. In the last week’s reported ONS data, there were 10,836 deaths in England and Wales in total. Covid was the cause of 166 of them and involved (mentioned but not main cause) in a further 119. The concerning part is that this total is a staggering 1,432 deaths above the five year 2015-2019 average.

    Deaths registered in May 2022 were 5,873 above the average seen pre-pandemic in 2015-2019. Of those 4,357 were not due to Covid. Of the main causes of death, heart disease had the largest number of deaths above average.

    The article is dated 5th July 2022 and is at the bottom of this page.

    So in UK in the last week Covid deaths plus Covid related deaths amounted to approx 2.5% of the total deaths (285 from 10,836).

    My only reason for posting this is to make a comparison with our neighbours and their recently reported Covid deaths.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Don't Chute!


    Yesterday Sweden DID lockdown today they DID’NT. Which one is it? It can’t be both just to satisfy whichever little argument you’re having with your own head on a given day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,802 ✭✭✭DebDynamite


    Glad to hear he has no symptoms. Must be a relief that it’s not affected him.

    How was the virus detected if he contracted it after admission to hospital and has no symptoms? Are they testing people even after they’ve been admitted?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,819 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,032 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Yes they are.

    The sudden surge of covid recently is due to Summer travel. The people who have travelled through the airports and mixed with others on holiday are driving the increase. Some deny deny this evident fact how do they explain how this moved across the world so quickly in the first place?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,819 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    I'll repost what I wrote yesterday and other posters can judge for themselves whether you just have a poor recollection or are deliberately trying to be deceptive. So perhaps you should have that argument with yourself.

    This is what I wrote:

    There was a massive shift in behaviours e.g. working from home, economic activity dropped as much versus countries which did lockdown, detectable reductions in people's radius of travel. To a large extent they locked themselves down.

    It was clear from my posts today it was in relation to government measures.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    So the last surge a couple months back was caused by summer travel? . What rubbish. It’s being driven by BA.4/BA.5. Variants will always find their way in regardless of summer travel. I have travelled long haul multiple times ( and will continue to do so) in the last 6 months and didn’t catch it yet. However in a house in the Arsehole of Leitrim I nearly caught it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 42,454 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,750 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Thats half right , the first bit yes .

    The second part..Nope. Omicron has been shown not to confer any immunity against any Omicron variant or indeed from repeated infection at all , serious disease or otherwise. That would be infection from the original strains only .

    It does confer some t cell immunity which would protect against Alpha, Beta or Delta strains it has been found , but not Omicron spike itself which is different .

    So it has evolved to get rid of the competition .

    That's ok as long as it doesn't evolve into a more pathological strain causing serious disease.

    Then its trouble because you have a variant that has evolved to avoid the vaccines , to reinfect again and again .

    At present what is protecting the population from serious disease is t cells and other immunity from vaccinations .


    And that's not my view by the way , it's the view of the scientists who did the research ..summary here ..

    https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj.o1474



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Do you ever actually read posts? I said against serious illness. I’ll repeat serious illness. The much less hospitalisations in this wave proves my point or do you have a better explanation? Look especially at the SA data.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,750 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Comparing Sweden to the rest of Europe instead of it's own neighbours who are both culturally and demographically more alike , is like comparing Florida and North Dakota with California, Apples and Oranges ...

    If anybody wants data comparing Sweden ( unfavourably as it happens ) to its neighbours or many other countries including Ireland , it has been reproduced time and again on the dedicated Swedish thread .

    It's a bit strange that some posters are trying to resurrect that old chestnut here .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,032 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    All surges have been caused by travelin the first place. A new virus is one plane ride away from here. Anyway how can you 'nearly' catch it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Yes in the first place. But it’s not fueling the current surge. Shut the airports right? Lol 2020 is long gone I’m afraid.

    I was in a room with 3 other people. One had covid unknowingly to herself. The other 2 got it but I escaped.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,750 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    No that would be down to vaccinations , not getting infected again and again with Omicron .

    Made that distinction in my post ...if you read my post properly !

    And by the way you never mentioned SA , but if you want to ...their age demographic is very different to ours .

    " It seems the vaccines are still preventing serious disease "



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    Ah right so SA their age demographic changed with each wave? Right .

    it’s a known fact BA.2 is giving protections against serious illness for BA.5. The hospitalizations prove it in Ireland anyway. Ireland had just as high vaccination rates couple months back when we had twice the amount in hospitals. We have been vaccinated a longtime now. In fact much less waning months ago. So no, it’s not down to just vaccination.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,750 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    How is it a well known fact ?

    Produce evidence to back that up .

    All I have seen ...data and evidence, that is ... including the link to the very large study in my post above , that you obviously did not read , Mickey, says the opposite .

    And it is waning , that is why their are more elderly back in hospital now . And that is why they are trying to encourage more if that age group to get their second booster .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,646 ✭✭✭Micky 32


    I’ll ask you once more before I put you on ignore . Why have we 50% less in hospitals in the middle of this wave vs the last wave especially when BA.5 is more pathogenic? It’s not just down to vaccinations. We were all vaccinated months ago when there was 1679 in hospitals with twice the amount in ICU’s.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,750 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    It's not PROVEN to be more pathogenic , just that it MIGHT be affecting lungs more .

    We were all infected quickly because we never had Omicron before and I'll give you that , but it's not PROVEN that it gives any immunity at all to the other Omicron variants .

    If it is then I promise you I will come back here and say your hunch was right , ok ?

    But up to then it's just a hunch / opinion.

    Night .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 594 ✭✭✭Fr0g


    So not a lockdown then. If every country had done the same they would have had similar outcomes. The fact is fit and healthy people were in no danger from COVID and didn't need to quarantine. As per WHO guidelines for previous decades.

    There is little to be gained from locking down young fit and healthy people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,819 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    "If every country had done the same they would have had similar outcomes"

    Statement without foundation. Already dealt with earlier with reference to their low population density disproven by comparison with their neighbours - but ignored by you.

    "Fit and healthy people in no danger from COVID"

    Statement without foundation. 15% of Covid deaths in the US were under 80 \ without other conditions. The ICU and hospitalisation admissions here also disprove your statement. If it can put you into ICU then yes it is a danger to you.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 594 ✭✭✭Fr0g


    So what you're saying is Ireland with it's low population density and surrounded by water didn't need to lockdown? We would have had a similar outcome as those other countries who didn't lock down?

    So it was all completely unnecessary. You should have shared your wisdom with NPHET.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,819 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    No I didn't say that at all. Not unless we wanted to have at least the same excess deaths Sweden did and have thousands more dead Irish citizens. Plus we share an open border with the UK. Perhaps read the entirety of the posts you are responding to instead of just the bits you want to quote out of context.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Sweden locked themselves down according to you though so it's strange that you are complaining about their excess deaths when they followed the method that you support....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,819 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Another dishonest attempt at deliberate misrepresentation of what another poster has written.

    This is what I wrote:

    There was a massive shift in behaviours e.g. working from home, economic activity dropped as much versus countries which did lockdown, detectable reductions in people's radius of travel. To a large extent they locked themselves down.

    Did the Sweden implement government mandated lockdown or restriction measures in wave 1? Nope. You know this, and I know this.

    In the sentence I clearly drew the distinction between countries which did lockdown, and Sweden's voluntary action.

    So either you are dishonestly misrepresenting what I posted OR if you genuinely think Ireland and Sweden had the same lockdown measures then you have ended your own internal debate.

    I think this conversation is done if this is the route you're going down.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 594 ✭✭✭Fr0g




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