FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
Comments
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The fax charts are holding on to settled weather albeit cold and likely cloudy in the north and east. Could be decent conditions in the SW though.
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A big flip from the models now showing lower rainfall amounts again, cooler maybe up to about next weekend with the ECM then showing an improvement getting into the mid to high teens or so over the Bank holiday weekend ,modest but welcome if it transpires , GFS not as warm that weekend on it's latest run. Low confidence at present in what way it will go.
Very low confidence in the longer term forecasts at present, got seriously burnt with the previous strong hint of potential warm temperatures, the models were showing improving runs day by day and then pulled the plug.
Picking up that at least there could be good spells of sunshine over the coming week and humidity keeping low, with winds from a N'ly direction they are going to have a cooling effect the further N and along the coasts, cool nights for many, jet very fractured and no clear pattern on what kind of weather is going to prevail, maybe keeping mixed perhaps for a time to come, a pattern of cool to near normal with an occasional warmer couple of days perhaps, anyway at least for now not looking as wet.
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ECM and GFS ( GFS bit changeable from run to run but the trend is there I think ) now close together on predicting fairly decent temperatures into and over next weekend, high teens low twenty's but both are showing the possibility of widespread frontal rain on B/H Mon associated with an area of LP well off the West coast.
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The next 2 weeks genearlly look unsettled for Ireland with low pressure always over Ireland or brushing up along the west coast.
These low pressures will surge heat northwards from Spain across France, into England and on to Scandinavia. Ireland never does well in these situations always staying unsettled and much cooler compared to the continent. Typical Irish summertime Atlantic sourced weather.
Daytime temperatures over the next 2 weeks generally 12 to 18C. Very little sign of any warmth for us.
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Hopefully we will start to see a change in the charts in about a weeks time to a more settled and warmer second half to June. There is a factor that could lead us into having an unsettled summer which is the warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic to the west and south-west of Ireland. However this warmer than average anomaly has moderated a bit in recent days. We also appear to be getting close to setting up a tripole in the North Atlantic which could have a bearing on this winter if this was to enhance and be sustained throughout the summer and into early Autumn.
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