If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact [email protected]

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,390 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Models trending that bit wetter now out to +240hrs, could get a few spells of rain later Mon into Tues and possibly Weds also, not too much currently showing after that into the Weekend. ECM showing a warm couple of days at the end of next week from warm Southerlies, into the 20's , not far off what the GFS is showing but it is not showing as warm , one to watch out of interest.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry is showing 23c for Mullingar in 9 days time. All fantasy of course but nice. Any placement of highs in the right area would help temperatures shoot up. Paddys week was still the warmest one in Sligo this year. Yesterday most of the country was 18c but Sligo was 12c

  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    The coming week will be a bit more unsettled than what we've been used to over recent weeks. Tomorrow is going to be a wet and cool day, although overall not as miserable as last weekend. Western and northern areas should clear up late morning or early afternoon with southern and eastern areas mostly wet or damp for much of tomorrow with a clearance by evening. Saturday and Sunday will be quite warm with temperatures possibly reaching 18 or 19C in many areas and will be mostly dry.

    Next week will be unsettled particularly in western and northern areas with up to 50mm of rainfall in western areas and 10 to 20mm of rainfall across eastern and southern areas. Temperatures will be more average between 12 and 16C generally during the course of next week. It will feel cool particularly under persistant rainfall and may be fairly breezy at times with chilly north-west winds.

    What happens after next week is still very much up in the air particularly for Ireland. The latest GFS run is saying no to warm and settled weather for Ireland as an area of low pressure breaks off from Greenland and makes a beeline for Ireland while the UK will be enjoying summer, although no heatwave for them either on this particular run.

    The above solution is unlikely to verify being so far out, this could be a cool and unsettled outlyer and the GFS 12z will most likely be different again, but goes to show what a knifeedge this is between the warm and settled and cool and unsettled.

  • Registered Users Posts: 434 ✭✭Avon8

    Would you have a ballpark percentage chance of that spell of high pressure actually coming to fruition, in that 3rd week of the month? Have a family wedding towards the end of it

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,623 ✭✭✭Jizique

    BBC tonight was very upbeat on their 10 day forecast

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    The GFS 00z was a good one, not heatwave terrority but not far off (for the time of year). The ensembles look encouraging that we will see a signifcant warm up during the 3rd week of May, although there is no guarantee that things will become settled just yet. The BBC will always be a bit more upbeat as England will have a higher chance of sunshine and warmth than we do. Expect more flip flopping over the next few days before this comes into the reliable timeframe.

  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 13,127 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen

    Oh there's still a fair chance (like just over 50%) that some kind of ridging will occur towards the third week of May but I wouldn't be betting my money on a proper stubborn ridge over us to give guaranteed countrywide sunshine and warm temperatures. I'd say the highest chance is for the ridge to be centred over the Low Countries with somewhat of a southeasterly flow to Ireland which would likely give at least a few days of warm temperatures for most but low pressure close by might give a few showers so there might be a fair amount of cloud around.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    It is almost certain that this won't be as warm as we hope and us in the West will be saying its only 14c here n misty. However the trend is warm and May will end up significantly milder than average this year. If highs were to align would be near record warmth IMT. By the way sryan what is the warmest May? Do I remember 1989 being roasting?

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,127 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen

    You know Ireland too well down to a tee :/

    Warmest May IMTs (since 1958):

    2008 13.0C

    1990 12.3C

    2018 12.3C

    2017 12.3C

    1999 12.3C

    1998 12.3C

    1992 12.2C

    1960 12.2C

    2020 12.2C

    1970 12.1C

    Most of these have differences of hundredths of a degree and I have them in descending order based on this but have rounded to the nearest tenth for simplicity. May 2008 was above and beyond by far the warmest May on record in the country due to the frequency of warm easterlies.

    1989 was a warm May but not one of the warmest on record for Ireland whilst also being very sunny.

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno

    Interesting that 2008 was so fab in May... it went really downhill from there. It was a washout summer and part of the great run of bad summers from 2007 to 2012 inclusive. Though 2010 had it's reprieves, all those summers were showery with frontal rains and also cool.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    I do seem to remember 1989 being really warm very early in the year, could have been late April or early may. I was in Junior Cert year I think and remember it getting to the mid 20s long before the summer holidays kicked in and we had several classes outside in the field to enjoy the warmth and get out of a stuffy prefab classroom.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    I must be near the same age as you Gonzo. Same memory.

    Latest charts favoring more rain so the record of 2008 safe for now. However no exceptional cold so IMT could end in the top 10 with any warm spell in week 3 or 4. Week 2 looks upwards of 50mm of rain in the West.

    Even the dry warm weekend is now more dry most of the time but some patchy rain at times here n there.

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno

    Are you certain it wasn't 1988?

    April was stunningly with warm weather and well above average temperatures after the first couple of days...

    Vividly remember that first week of April as being T-Shirt weather - think it co-incided with the Easter Hols!

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Lowest temperatures about 5 to 8c this week and with settled weather possible the following week we will keep an IMT of 11 to 12c for May. As I said I think 2008 record maybe beyond us but another 12.3c may not be or 2nd place.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    Could have been 1988, I don't remember us getting mid twenties any other time since so early in the season.

  • Registered Users Posts: 211 ✭✭smokie72

    I remember 1988 had a warm and dry May and June. I was doing my inter cert at the time and the weather was glorious. July and August were both very poor. 1989 was a very warm summer. It started in early May after a cool April but that previous winter 88/89 was one of the mildest I ever remember. Windy at times though. The grass was turning brown by August 1989.

  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Yeah we haven't really had the normal great weather we get in April or May yet. Maybe wel get it in late May and June this year. Is another 30c Summer a possibility? Certainly the average for May will be well above normal and could start a trend for the Summer of '22.

  • Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭eon1208

    Thanks Sryan. Keep us posted on this ridge please..

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Yeah end of May could be 25 or 26c if we are lucky.

    Meanwhile I spend my days looking at the weather in Spain 41.8c 🇪🇸 Germany 🇩🇪 tornadoes and Pakistan 🇵🇰 51c for some cheap thrills to escape this dross.

  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    yeah the GFS seems to have flipped from a very warm outlier to an almost cool/chilly outlier with the high going to Iceland instead.

    A big shift from yesterday.

    To what we have now:

    This would result in temperatures mid to high teens instead of mid twenties. However both solutions are unlikely to verify as they are both at the extreme end of the scale. In any case it looks like any high pressure or warmth would be short lived with the form horse galloping in from the west fairly smartly soon afterwards. 06z beginning to rollout now.

This discussion has been closed.