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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,128 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen

    Look far away from the GFS 06z Gonzo 🙈😂

  • Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭Meself

    Praise the lord !

    If anyone wants to leave a Glastonbury festival outlook nearer the time (24th / 26th June) I'd be very grateful. Not wishing to derail this thread tho.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,128 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen

    Not a great set of afternoon and evening runs it has to be said. GFS is pretty messy like its 06z and quite cool to start June, fortunately it was even more of an outlier.

    ECM has gone similar to the GFS. It initially shows a few fine days but the anticyclone later retrogresses to the NW and sends a shallow trough south which would bring cool and wet conditions to end May and start June.

    GEM is settled and pleasant whilst showing signs of retrogression like the ECM towards the end of its run.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    One thing about the forecasts is theyr mainly wrong. E.g All the models want to bring heat to us that week coz the weather's usually good that week most years but this is probably going to go belly up or 20c at best.

    Even in Spain they got it wrong in Madrid today . 36c n sunny they said. Instead they got 36c n then intense thunderstorms.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    I would say even the forecast for Ireland for the past 2 days has been off compared to what they the models were showing up to Thursday evening. The Thundery showers were more or less a bust yesterday, some short lived showers early in the afternoon yesterday and a mostly dry mid afternoon to evening across the country. The thundery stuff really only got going in Northern Ireland and had very little affect in the republic. Today which was meant to be fairly showery was mostly dry across the country apart from isolated light showers and overall nowhere as unsettled as what was originally promised but that is a good thing.

    Unfortunately the cool to chilly northerly/north-easterly outbreak at the end of the month is beginning to gain more support. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,614 ✭✭✭OldRio

    These models might as well flip a coin for all the good they do.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,398 ✭✭✭ZX7R

    I think people need to bear in mind that meteorological weather data that Russia shared with its European counterparts has ceased and all commercial flights to Russia witch also gathered this information coupled with a large no fly zone civil across a large part of Eastern European countries plus a large reduction of release of weather balloons. Is going to have an enormous impact on all the charts.

    A large swade of information not been fed into the computers at the moment.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    The last two runs from the ECM have dropped the temps a fair bit next weekend, mid to high teens from fri, high teens Sat , scraping the mid teens Sun and much cooler further North, goes on to produce a couple of cooler days early the following week before heating up to the high teens /low 20's again Basically the HP gets stalled to our S as LP takes hold in Scandinavia / N Europe . Will be interesting to see if warm humid S'lys /SE'lys get drawn up from the Tropics like what the charts below ae beginning to show but they are at odds with the GFS. GEM more in line with the ECM but a lot warmer in Southern counties . Intriguing. Bound to get some warmer weather soon, aren't we ! 😂

  • Registered Users Posts: 232 ✭✭konman

    @sryanbruen great to see you active in this forum again.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,391 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    ECM definitely better from +120hrs , Sunday now looking into the low 20's and showing it to get up to the mid to high teens out to the end of the run . Rainfall amounts much lower also on the current run, GFS still showing warmer by a few degrees next week, UKMO modest temps out to next Tues, GEM the warmest getting up to the mid 20's.

    So taking the improving ECM , GFS and GEM would think that the trend is looking up for warmer , more calm and dryer weather out to the end of next week.

    After this Thurs the models are showing low rainfall amounts.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    I was hoping the GFS would continue with the runs from yesterday and other models to agree today but sadly it looks like no warmth on the horizon and we're back to April like temperatures. 6z rolling out now and it looks cool and unsettled to say the least.

    I suppose this very prolonged warmer than average spell had to come to an end after almost a year of it and it looks like the weather gods have chosen the start of summer for a shift to a colder pattern.

    let's hope this only brief and not something that will run on for weeks.

    Edit: GFS 6z still rolling out. There is hope things may begin to warm up and settle down in week 2 of June but instead we enter a cool north-west to south-east flow from the Atlantic. Could June be our first cooler than average month of 2022?

    Post edited by Gonzo on

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    The weather models have completely gone down the drain these months. Is it since Covid? Like if you see a chart even for just a couple of days time it's wrong 90percent of the time. We'll in Sligo anyways.

    Another noticeable thing about this year is the low day temperature profile. We have still to hit 20c in Sligo and its nearly June and yet we have had an odd night this year that's been 14c.

    Even worldwide bar the small pockets of extreme heatwaves it's been mainly cool. Still Summer could be an absolute roaster (who knows) but the models are just eye candy really. Even the pre 120hrs ones are unreliable.

    E.g Last weekend was forecast to have 25mm of rain in total in Sligo (Thursdays forecast). In actual fact there was 4.2mm

    Light showers and cool air with plenty of sun is what wev had the past 10 days bar some very heavy rain last Monday week. Still many areas inland (even in Sligo) have had much heavier rain showers.

    Less rain seems the pattern for the rest of May with moderate temperatures probably 18 or 19c at best. I doubt we'll see any mid twenties any time soon.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    Temperatures have been very underwhelming this May. Most of the country has still to reach 20C, many places haven't seen any higher than 19C this year which can happen as early as March so despite the warmer temperature anomalies, the daytime temperatures in Ireland at least have been very dissapointing considering June is less than a week away now. If the current model output is correct we may have to wait till mid June until somewhere in Ireland pushes past 20C.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,858 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker

    Worrying charts, looking very 2007-12 to me.

    It could be one of those summers with places such as Donegal and Scotland being the driest places in these islands.

    Too early to panic but worrying as I’ve said 😮

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,128 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen

    Much the same this evening really. All models now certainly singing from the same hymn sheet. High latitude blocking, a lovely trough pencilled in over or near us (sarcastic with the 'lovely' part), cool northeasterly winds by Monday. Would be a lot of cloud with showers I'd have thought.

    As Elmer Blooker says, these are not the kind of charts you like to be seeing around now if you seek warmth and are the kind of charts that characterise poor summers. Fortunately, not always the case as drivers can force changes in the atmosphere like what would have happened in 1995 for example - a cool and cloudy first half to June dominated by northerly winds contrasted with an exceptional sunny and very warm second half which would lead us into Ireland's warmest summer on record. Or will this high latitude block sustain to give prolonged cloudy, cool conditions? What's becoming certain now anyway is meteorological summer 2022 won't start off on a particularly warm note.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Wow that latest GFS is pure muck.

    Rain every day. Temperatures 14c to 18c mostly. However hopefully coz its the pub run its pure fantasy.

    Might not turn out good but hopefully not as much of a washout as those charts.

    At this stage I'll take 18c and dry.

  • Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭eon1208

    Sryan. Would you give an educated guess on how much precipitation is likely between this afternoon and Saturday week next in the south midlands. Would really appreciate your take on this.. Thanks

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,198 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    GFS 00z is the perfect summer horror show, real shades of Summer 2007-2012 with cold winds, very cool temperatures and rain every day right up to mid June. This is starting to look like a major pattern change, the biggest we've seen in an entire year to something far cooler and more unsettled that what we've been used for a very long time. The one thing that remains to be seen is how long this will go on for. Is this summer going down the tubes or will we see a recovery by mid June.

    If this was January or February we would probably be getting close to December 2010 level of cold with no shortage of snow/blizzards. I would have given my kidneys for these sort of charts in the middle of winter but this is the last thing we want to see to start the summer.

    Edit: The GFS 6z remains very cool and wet. There is a chance of some frost from Sunday evening and on various nights next week with temperatures getting down to 1 or 2C in places during the night. I'm not sure i've ever seen a frost in June before but we're in with a real chance after Sunday. Daytime temperatures next week generally 10 to 15C but could go as low as 7 or 8C during rainfall in northern areas.

    Post edited by Gonzo on

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,508 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Hurray exciting weather even if its bad. Beats light showers n wind. We had a max temperature in Sligo of 8.5c on the June Bank Holiday Sunday about 10 years ago. It rained all day and there was hail in the evening clearance. Most of the rest since have been mild or warm.

    We are due a cool Summer even a cooling period. Plus unfortunately we are due lots of rain to balance the relatively low daily amounts wev seen lately.

    Hope we don't have to buy oil this Summer. It'll prob cost 2k but yes though charts are grim if of interest.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 484 ✭✭The HorsesMouth

    The ECM doesn't look too bad out past the 4th and onwards from what I've seen...certainly the days previously don't look hectic.

    From my experience over the last few months with the charts is that we seem to see either wonderful charts that never come off but also horrific ones that never seem to come off either. My own simple view on it is if we can at least get rid of that wind that's been here most of the month then we are in for an improving situation.

This discussion has been closed.