Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

First off, that runs the massive risk of being claimed to be threatening the UK. The media (Express etc) are already pushing the line that the EU is punishing the UK, imagine if the EU actually stood up and laid it out?

Secondly, do you think they haven't already done it behind closed doors? Why do you think Johnson signed the deal in the 1st place, despite constantly claiming a No deal was preferrable to a bad deal.

Any list of consequences cannot deal with the political. And that is all this is. This is all just political posturing by the Tory's, and Johnson, to try to ensure they get re-elected. Just as signing the deal was.

Even before the Ref itself, the consequences of Brexit were pointed out, and ignored as Project Fear. What do you think has changed in the UK mindset that mow they are willing to listen to experts and the EU?

You are attempting to put a rational argument in place for an irrational actor. The UK don't care about facts and outcomes. It is all about feelings and the enemy and hating the EU.

How many times have we heard that the economy isn't everything? That sovreignthy is worth any price. The BoE said recently that Brexit is costing the UK economy 440m per week, well ahead of the supposed 350m they were going to save. And guess what? Nothing. Nobody is even talking about it.

This and similar statements from Kermit are not of this world. Ireland and its trade will be defended by the EU together with Ireland.

The EU might suspend the TCA, but not initiate the trade war on the island of Ireland. It is relative easy for a shorter period to limit the damage done to the SM by sloppy control across the Irish Sea border.

The trade volume is after all limited across the GB-NI sea border, while is will hit the UK hard if trade is limited or stopped across the Channel.

A few measures in Ireland could e.g. be a 100% ban UK registered lorries on ferries between Ireland and EU26 and/or confiscating lorries used for smuggling - or just lock the lorries up for say 3-6 months. No long haulier can afford and risk that.

The EU will surely focus on limiting trade between England - harbours/airports - and continental EU (EU26).

Lars 😀

PS!

When Trump introduced tariffs on steel and aluminium. the EU put import tariffs on specific US products from the home state of leading republican politicians. The EU dislikes it, but knows where to hit, when diplomacy fails. Harley-Davidson from Wisconsin (then Speaker Paul Ryan) and Kentucky Whiskey (then Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell) and others.

surelythat's it then. Now that Johnson, the UK government and the public has been warned of the consequences, surely they will heed the warnings and implement the NIP.

This isn't new information.

UK will row back a bit this week then ramp it up again in a couple of weeks when they need another distraction, then row back a week or two later again. Rinse and repeat. That's what they've been doing for the last year.

Some geniuses are claiming the EU is soft in not escalating the rhetoric. In reality the UK can huff and puff all it wants and it makes no difference. It strings the DUP along for a month or two and they fall for it every time. It's only when they actually suspend or unilaterally change the NIP that the EU have to act.

The grandstanding is for the British public and that makes no difference to the EU maybe except for the time wasting our ministers have to do explaining what Brexit means to the UK media.

How are they going to control a 500 klm border with the EU one the island of Ireland when they can't even conduct checks on EU imports at british ports yet?

Whereas if they actually provoke us we have the resources of the entire EU to run a customs regime. Obviously this will mean that Boris will have played his last hand leaving the UK as a pariah state to the EU until there's a regime change.

What exactly was the point of the little trip to Belfast by Boris ?

All he did was annoy most of the parties, no new suggestions other than some vague promise of changes to the DUP - no sign of any instruction to the DUP to stop blocking the assembly

So BoJos little visit today achieved zilch- an exercise to placate unionists and pretend he’s “helping”- the main purpose of course was for domestic English consumption to look like he’s standing up to the EU. It’s a well worn pantomime at this stage.

Finally, a journalist starts to ask some pointed questions to Johnson. If the deal is so terrible, surely whomever signed it is at fault!

But another point that is going almost entirely unquestioned. GB to NI trade is small compared to the UK economy as a whole. If the Government are claiming that any checks at all in the Irish sea is having a massive negative effect on trade, why isn't anyone asking what the expected impact of checks across the entire UK to importers and exporters will be.

The fact that anybody is still actually listening to any of this Brexit BS is so frustrating. People complain about politicians, but when they continue to allow those politicians to get away with such nonsense then its not surprising that the same politicians will treat the public as fools

I don't know about that. Surely a functioning, well-run NI (bear with me here) would give many nationalist-leaning voters something to think about long and hard before taking a leap into the unknown?

As things stand, the DUP are arguably doing SF's work for them. "NI is a basket case and has been for 100 years and always will be if you let it continue to exist"

So the UK will legislate to unilaterally change the NIP.

"Liz Truss has "invited" @MarosSefcovic to London for a Joint Committee meeting soon to discuss this "new" Protocol"

We will have to see what the legislation is and then if it gets through parliament and the HoL as well. Joke of a government who had their own impact assessments that predicted the current checks and still they went ahead.

In before Kermit, there is no need to act rash now. Just have discussions with the UK and let them know what will happen if they continue this course and leave it to them to destroy their reputation.

The others are not "against it" in any shape or form.

Clumsy wording from me, they may not be against it but none of them would say it works perfectly. Johnson is using weasel words to turn a nuanced position into a black and white one, just like the Brexit referendum. As I mentioned in my post its not that most parties are against the NIP in NI, but they are in favour of getting it to work better. Johnson is turning that around to being against the NIP in total.

One more tweet, EU has responded,

Hopefully I have explained myself better on what I meant with the second paragraph in my post above. As for the DUP, I don't think anyone is under the impression that they are looking to form a government in NI. They will use any excuse to collapse Stormont and at the moment it is the NIP that helps them delay making a SF First Minister. If the NIP is solved tomorrow I am under no illusion that Stormont will be up and running the day after as the DUP will find another reason to not form a government.

We are well aware of their crazy Brexit stance. It was never going to work unless Brexit would work and there was no way Brexit was ever going to be a success.

What have SF, SDLP or Alliance said about elements not working ?

Which things do they want changed or think could work better ?

If the DUP refused to go into government, a responsible british government would look and say, as stormont cant function, then it is time to look at the option of a border poll, and initiate, not an actual border poll, but a forum to look at re-unifcation and what it would look like in preperation for a border poll.

That would frighten the DUP, if they cant form a government in stormont according to the GFA, then use the articles of the GFA to look at alternative governance in NI, and that should include unification.

Then again, thats what a responsible government would do, not a tory one.

As others have noted, its not that they were saying it wasn't working. Its nuanced, nobody has said it is perfect so they have all done the politician thing to say that the protocol is here to stay so we have to work to make it better. Johnson is turning that around to mean they are all against it. See quote below as an example for SF position,

"Mr Murphy said Stormont’s first opportunity in a long time for a three-year budget has been lost, with all departments currently operating on a care and maintenance basis.

“If people are going to continue to hang out over the protocol, there won’t be an Executive in place and what we will have is a treading water approach in terms of budgetary spend over the next number of months at least and that essentially loses us one year out of the three-year budget,” he said.

“What we have to do is take the ideology out of the negotiations and get into the pragmatic dealing of the solutions through the discussions through the British government and the EU, and some of that has already materialised in terms of medicines and other matters.

“An absence of an Executive here will not have any impact on those discussions.”"

See the bolded part, talking about making it better and finding solutions. Same as the EU, lets discuss making it better. Not rip it up and start again which is the DUP stance, followed closely by some UK politicians and then the UK government just a little behind them.

My understanding is Alliance wanted more that the UK makes more progressive deals with the EU as a whole which would by extension improve things for northern Ireland (essentially the original intention of the protocol) If the UK agreed for parity on foods with the EU or signed up to the pet passport scheme or numerous other smaller policies that the EU basically offered the UK and many other non EU sates already sign up to, then it will naturally improve things for northern ireland.

Essentially they are rightly saying that the UK and EU need to get back on the wider negotiation table and it will naturally improve things with the protocol