Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

beggars_bush · 03-05-2022 7:19am

According to a leaked discussion paper from the supreme court, the Trump Conservative loaded bench is going to overturn the Roe v Wade 1973 decision.

This will be a huge and divisive issue in the states if true

Itssoeasy · 03-05-2022 8:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119008292#Comment_119008292

As I said in the thread started by @Overheal elections have consequences in America right up to the Supreme Court. Maybe, just maybe this will bring it home to democratic voters(and the Democratic Party) that assuming democratic candidates will win just by force of message isn’t true. Social media likes and retweets don’t translate to actual votes and you need to actually vote, and not stay home because your preferred candidate isn’t running, and the one that is doesn’t tick every **** box on the purity test. Given the US Supreme Court is 6-3 to the conservatives means this ruling if it hasn’t changed since February, is shocking but not surprising.

This may have a galvanising effect on the November mid term elections but that will come too late for roe vs wade.

Brussels Sprout · 03-05-2022 10:26am

The numbers add up anyway. Trump's 3 picks and the 2 original hard-right votes (Thomas & Alito) were always going to vote for it. The 3 liberals were always going to vote against. Roberts was the only one that there was any uncertainty about. Given that he seems to prize the court's reputation and standing above all else it makes sense that he would vote against as he knows that there will be a lot of blowback on it over this.

In the long run it will be interesting how popular extremely tough abortion laws will be in all of those states that will bring them in immediately. It's very easy to be in favour of them when they're never going to be enacted. It will be another thing when the inevitable stories of young teenagers pregnant by rape and incest and unable to get an abortion start to develop. The religious right will stick with them for sure but the people in the middle will tip the balance.

beggars_bush · 03-05-2022 11:32am

Its going to affect poorer people the most with no access to healthcare

That's what the original Roe v Wade judgement was all about.

ohnonotgmail · 03-05-2022 11:35am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119008759#Comment_119008759

not getting an abortion may be the least of their worries. some red states will criminalise abortion for the woman involved including travelling out of state to get one.

pixelburp · 03-05-2022 11:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119009022#Comment_119009022

And that, is precisely the point. Poverty, mixed with religion and that's a chunk of the country locked into one party control for the future. Roe v Wade was already being skirted around anyway with those 6 week laws, this will simply nail down what was already in existence.

Of course, it goes without saying that if and when those various GOP politicians' sons rape a sorority girl in college, suddenly access to abortion in Canada will be easy.

Nody · 03-05-2022 1:11pm

In a way I think it's good it comes to it's point now before the election and hopefully the whole process of electing Supreme court judges can be improved; but I'm not exactly hopeful on that topic.

pixelburp · 03-05-2022 1:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119009475#Comment_119009475

I think the time is well passed for institutional reform in the US. The founders are deified, while the constitution regarded as holy writ rather than a work in progress. All Fox would need to say is "Socialism! Coup!" and that'd be the initiatives dead in the water.

Brussels Sprout · 03-05-2022 5:02pm

So apparently when that decision is officially announced next month abortion will become illegal, immediately, in 18 states thanks to them planning for this very outcome in advance. 4 more states have laws that restrict abortion to 6 weeks and another 4 are likely to pass laws in reaction to the ruling.

pixelburp · 03-05-2022 5:11pm

The response to this, on the streets, will be fascinating. We can assume all the coastal states will protest but as the graphic shows they're least likely to change - so there it's empty rhetoric to an extent. Bar Florida but that state's a lost cause. You'd have to imagine, hope even, the outcry and rage will be immense; indeed is there a chance the GOP might be harming themselves for the mid-term elections?

Itssoeasy · 03-05-2022 5:16pm

So the draft is real according to the Chief Justice John Roberts and he’s said while the draft is real, it doesn’t mean it’s the final decision of the court. I mean I suppose that’s true but it’s hardly likely to change that much when it’s ruled on officially. He’s also ordered an investigation into the source of the leak which means that all the staff of the nine justices will be questioned ? It’s not a common thing to happen but it’ll surely be a case of finding out who it came from and not where it came from, because it came from the Supreme Court, but which justice.

Nody · 03-05-2022 5:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119010736#Comment_119010736

It goes down ok with their core voters but is a anchor on independents and will help push Democrats to go vote (neither which is a benefit).

Polling suggests that the issue could absolutely be a galvanizing one -- for Democrats and even independents.

In a January CNN poll, almost 7 in 10 Americans (69%) said they opposed the Supreme Court overturning Roe. That includes 86% of Democrats and 72% of independents.

More than 1 in 3 said they would be "angry" if the court overturned the decision, while another quarter said the decision would leave them "dissatisfied." Just 14% said the decision would make them "happy." Among Democrats, a majority -- 51% -- said the decision would make them "angry" while 29% of Republicans said it would make them "happy."

Simply put: There are very few issues that can make a claim to upend or fundamentally alter the trajectory of an election. But overturning Roe may well be one of them.

Rjd2 · 03-05-2022 6:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119010832#Comment_119010832

It depends how you read it, if you believe that overturning Roe means banning all abortion then yeah, but its much more complicated when you drill into the more likely scenarios. The scenario that some have proposed is 15 week abortion ban has about 50% support with the public.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1521310376821940230?cxt=HHwWjICzucfu45wqAAAA

Podge_irl · 03-05-2022 6:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119010947#Comment_119010947

Many Republican states have significantly more stringent bans that will automatically come into force literally the second this decision officially lands. It would be pretty impossible to make any argument for moderation at that point.

Brian? · 04-05-2022 6:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119010736#Comment_119010736

There will be a massive outcry, huge protests and then nothing will happen. The GOP will retake the house in November and have a shot at the Senate.

The anger won’t be enough to actually achieve anything. It’s depressingly predictable.

The GOP have played the long game beautifully. They’ve spent 4 decades packing state houses and benches to achieve this. The “conservative” think thanks and PACs have poured billions of dollars into getting the right judges on the SCOTUS. They are not going to be beaten now.

The most worrying part is what’s next? They’ve finally gotten their way on abortion, what will they use their power for next?

Nody · 04-05-2022 8:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119012940#Comment_119012940

I'd say it's very obvious; remove rights / progress for LGBT, i.e. marriage rights etc. You can simply look at Florida and then turn the knob to 11 along with something something around Christianity (because any other religion is not valid of course) in regards to donations/rights to fire/not hire etc. Their only limit on Christianity is obviously what's in the constitution or they would declare USA as a Christian only country but you can expand the rights of Christianity and point to the consititution doing so.

pixelburp · 04-05-2022 8:42am

I remember a few of years back here when moderators - quite rightly - had to chime in to stop a user referring to the US as Gilead; I can't even remember what it was the Christian fundamentalists were doing at that point. Doubtless something relating to female health issues. Honestly, fast-forward a few years and that snark now seems, not trite, but potentially prophetic and it's entirely possible that depending on where you live in the US, The Handmaid's Tale becomes a sick reminder how accurately things were predicted. No fertility rate drops, but the same degree of retrograde, "christian" flavoured repression.

The Christian Conservatives in that country are the American Taliban and they should be called thus. They haven't gone away and now occupy the decisive percentage of the Supreme Court, effectively ensuring that no matter how liberal the shape of government appears, it's gatekept by a foundational oppressive, religious force. Maybe I'm letting hyperbole get the best of me - after all this technically isn't an official decision by the SC - but this feels like the culmination of a very deliberate long-game by the GOP and associates.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119012940#Comment_119012940

I dunno. I get the feeling there has been a broad terror the Conservative movement would come for - and kill - Roe vs. Wade for years now. A preparation towards that day - akin to an ironic version of Gabriel's Horn. Not like the GOP et al haven't been pretty loud & clear about this. Look at the dismay and heartbreak when RBG died: for sure she was a cherished, celebrated justice and her loss a heartfelt one in its own right - but she was also holding the line; everyone knew what would happen if she passed while Trump was in office. She did, sadly as we know, and the end result exactly as predicted: a liberal, open-minded justice replaced with a dogmatic fundamentalist. In a thousand other universes her cancer spread slower, and she only passed after January 2021. Liberals and centrists know what's at stake - but yeah it's now about getting feet on the streets, although then we pivot back to the GOP's attempt to steal democracy. All the anger won't help if the GOP have locked out voting through phoney bills and gerrymandering.

As you say, the GOP have played chess while everyone else was playing civil chequers. As to what's next? Oh I think that's obvious; LGBT will be in their focus next under the umbrella of "family values". We see that already in Florida with the "don't say gay" bill. The GOP has successfully shifted its target towards possibly the smallest demographic in society: Trans people. The noise and paranoia over such a small set of oppressed, powerless and vulnerable people has been obscene, but that's the point. Anti-LGBT bills will be attempted using the threat of trans-women "fooling" you, and changing your children's gender without consent. Heck we can't even be too uppity about it 'cos this is exactly what Orban attempted in Hungary, phrasing his own anti-LGBT platform under the guise of fearmongering over trans people.

Brussels Sprout · 04-05-2022 11:43am

It's pretty interesting that all of the Republican politicians are focusing on the leak and not the substance. For someone like Mitch McConnell this is it - his lifetime achievement realised. I wonder will he be more triumphant when it is official at the end of next month.

I know there is an argument that they are worried that it will hurt them in November but it's not as if they have been coy about their intention to overturn Roe. This is been a galvanizing force and kept the evangelicals in their coalition for decades.

Christy42 · 04-05-2022 2:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119013920#Comment_119013920

Having actually done it will be a different factor as opposed to just trying and failing. Check out republicans repeatedly voting to repeal Obama care when Obama was president but were shy about it when they knew it wouldn't get blocked. However I would also be nervous that a big enough fight back would happen.

pixelburp · 04-05-2022 2:22pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119013920#Comment_119013920

Presumably the confidence would be that the various successful attempts to gerrymander the shíte out of districts, curtail voting rights and all the other Dark Arts across the institutions of government, the GOP can ensure a minority base, riled up on the fear of godless liberalism, will keep them in power.

I've seen it said before, before Biden took office, that liberals clapping themselves on the back for ousting Trump means nothing if the midterms are lost. Extracting the country out of this slow slide into a quasi theocratic strate will take a lot of shoe leather. Be it rallying voters, or indeed protesting on the streets.

Speaking of protests, the release of former Defence Secretary Mark Esper's own "tell all" reveals that Trump wanted George Floyd protestors shot in the legs. If the man wasn't such an idiot he could have made himself King.

https://www.axios.com/mark-esper-book-trump-protesters-24e93272-2af5-423d-be3b-164daab7b43d.html

Brussels Sprout · 04-05-2022 2:25pm

When the news of the leak broke I saw some anonymous MAGA account in the replies on twitter saying "I'll bet is was Ketanji Brown Jackson who leaked it". She's not actually on the court yet so that's an impossibility but I think it's very telling about who the new bogey-woman is going to be for the MAGA base. They'll basically have her along with AOC, Ilhan Omar and Nancy Pelosi. Anyway, turns out it wasn't just some random racist on twitter who was going with that line of inquiry. A host on NewsMax came out with it too!

https://twitter.com/KevinMKruse/status/1521835774617939968

[Deleted User] · 04-05-2022 6:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119014788#Comment_119014788

So a confirmed one then.

Will be interesting to see how calls for an investigation into the leak are handled and spun.

Tony EH · 05-05-2022 7:06am

Well she's black, female, leans a bit democrat...what more evidence do you need. It's got to be her and only a public lynching will suffice.

LOL...newsmax.

pixelburp · 10-05-2022 8:23pm

Well, it was presumed to happen once Musk took over Twitter... Fox, the wingnut division of the GOP and so on will be delighted.

https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-he-would-reverse-twitters-foolish-ban-of-donald-trump-12610153

Rjd2 · 15-05-2022 8:52pm

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/12/gop-panics-pa-senate-wild-card-kathy-barnette

Looking good for the GOP in November, but the concern for the GOP establishment has always been trying to keep the Trump MAGA loons to a minimum in blue/Purple states, sadly for them Pennsylvania could be a serious issue.

Leroy42 · 15-05-2022 9:38pm

why sadly for them? The Trump loons, including the man himself, are the very reason the GOP are staying relevant at all. They want the loons, they need the loons.

Removing the loons means the GOP have nothing to offer. The GOP is the Trump loons.

Rjd2 · 15-05-2022 11:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119068271#Comment_119068271

Do you think a MAGA "Stop the steal" candidate would have won the Virginia governor race , a state which Biden won very easily?

The hardcore MAGA vote is important but if that was the only GOP voting constituency they would be goosed for November .

The freaks like MTG make a lot of noise but in the grand scheme of things are irrelevant when it comes to the GOP powerbase.

ancapailldorcha · 16-05-2022 9:55am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119068616#Comment_119068616

No but this isn't the point. The MAGA brigade are part of the base and they're inherently unstable. The evangelicals, libertarians and so on aren't going to flip blue.

Leroy42 · 16-05-2022 10:09am

You cannot separate out the Trump supporters from the GOP, they are one in the same. They stood by Trump when he said that Neo Nazis had good people in their ranks. They stood by when Trump said the insurrectionists of 6th Jan were brave people. They voted for him in November.

While of course it isn't only them that voted for him, they have decided to align themselves and accept the like of MTG and the rest. One cannot claim that somehow MTG isn't a GOP'er, or represents the GOP.

Of course every party has its radicals, and MTG would probably fall into that, but not when the leader is Trump, as she is really just parroting his line.

The 'Stop the steal' is Trumps line, and thus the GOP have lined up behind him.

Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

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