Donald Trump discussion Thread IX (threadbanned users listed in OP)

Why in God's name would Trump ever countenance such a deal? He might be worried about DeSantis but he's not that worried. He assume he'll just steam roller him the same way that he steam rollered the entire Republican field in 2015. DeSantis is a particularly charmless man - I don't think he'll actually be too much of a problem for him. Trump will give him some childish knick-name and beat him by 40 points.

Anyone who thinks Trump won't run, behave.

This is a man who craves attention which he has been deprived of since losing his social media, the idea that he would look at something like a presidential election and all the spotlight that would bring and say "not for me " is madness.

He's also got about minimum 45% chance of winning v Biden/Harris in 2024 due to the electoral college.

Then to top it off, all the corporate media whether right, left etc will be begging him to run because he made them an absolute ton of money.

So yeah 3 consecutive president races with Trump, and if he loses in 2024, I'd expect him to run again in 2028.

The good news is though he for obvious reasons probably won't be in the 2032 GOP primary!

It seems Senator McConnell has broken with Trump [and/or maybe a section of the GOP itself] as he has issued a statement that the Jan 06 2021 was a violent insurrection. He seems to agreement with the opinion of Senator Romney, uncle of the RNC Chair, who's disagreed with her in the past about Trump.

Does this mean McConnell is telling the RNC chair that she is wrong in the RNC statement about the Capitol Hill mob being “Ordinary citizens who engaged in legitimate political discourse" and consequently the action taken by the RNC against the GOP two on the investigating committee is also wrong? Is this a break with Trump or merely one GOP senator agreeing with another GOP senator who's long in disagreement with his niece, the RNC chair, about Trump?

Don Trumps business empire has run into a problem which may affect his personal funding and have a knock-on effect on his chances of running for a second term as such efforts need funding. Mazars, the accountancy firm which was up to today Trumps accountants, have walked away from Trump and has stated that a decades worth of his financial statements cannot be relied on. The news was released by the New York Attorney General Letitia James.

The reliability of Trumps actual worth is covered by the alleged differing valuations the Trump family business put on parts of its property empire, depending on the reasons and requirements the valuations were submitted for. Speculation has arisen that Trump may be in need of a new lender to keep the family businesses afloat.

It doesn't take a genius to work out whom, besides AG James, Trump will be making statements soon.

Here's the statement from Mazars on the above Trump financial statements.

It begs the question who would take up the job [if offered it] knowing that Mazars, a firm with a reputation to protect, walked away from a former US President and long-term client who's under NYC civil criminal investigation.

Ref the overpayment of taxes question, that might be in the Mazars statement to indicate the state Trumps tax returns affairs are in covering the firms ass in case there is a chance that Trump might be return-compliant after all, which can keep the firm from being sued by Trump for issuing a misleading statement damaging to his good name.

Former President Trump may have made himself liable to charges under whatever federal law passes for the "Official Secrets" act in the US. It's been known for some days now that documents from the time he was president had been found at his Mar-a-Lago home and that he had been in the habit of destroying and damaging some of the documents. However its been reported that the US National Archives has found documents marked top secret and classified at Mar-a-Lago which were moved there from the White House by Trump AFTER he left the office of the presidency, making it possible he had no legal right or authority to possess or be in possession of those documents found in his Mar-a-Lago home.

Floating a balloon to see what the reaction of the audience is: If they laughed, go ahead with it, if they looked aghast, say it was a joke.

One of the US TV media show hosts on SKY [not CNN] mentioned yesterday that GOP voters were seeing him as being less relevant to the GOP in terms of vote-attraction; specifically that due to being less visible on media outlets:Twitter etc, Trump did not have the power that he once held over the fortunes of elected senior GOP members or those seeking election. It only remains to be seen if GOP candidates seeking his help will be from the QAnon quarter alone or whether regular GOP Politicians will seek his assistance on a quid pro quo basis.

The twitter ban is an interesting one. I have no interest in debating the rights and wrongs of it as its been done to death.

However which is not certain, has the social media ban hurt him overall?

Yes he is less visible and fuming over it all, but a major issue for the "moderate" Republicans who either voted Biden or sat at home was not his politics but how loud he was all the time regarding social media. He is still doing well in polls v Biden/Harris so maybe him been turned down has actually done him a a favor. Obviously we can only speculate until 2024 is over.

Regarding his endorsements, the good news for him he is shameless so he won't mind endorsing numerous candidates until he picks the winner, but the Peredue one in Georgia will genuinely upset him. He merely dislikes Hilary, Biden, Nancy etc, but he truly loathes GOP people whose careers he felt he made if they step anyway out of line. It looks like Kemp who supposedly was not able to stop the steal (lol) in Goergia will win that primary over Perdue who is running on nothing bar "stop the steal" and "maga".

He has endorsed plenty of "normal" Mitch McConnell type Republicans because as alluded to here, been on the winning side is much more important than ideology.

I see Trump has endorsed Sarah Palin. She's running in a special election for Alaska's sole House seat (the former congressman, Don Young, died a few weeks ago after 49 years in the job).

This will be the first chance to see Alaska's new system for federal elections:

1. Open Primary - this happens on June 11th. The top 4 will proceed to the General Election. There are currently over 50 people declared for this.
2. General Election - this happens on August 16th. This will be done by Ranked Choice voting

Side note: since this is an election year, this entire process will happen twice. The second election's open primary will be held on August 16th and the general election in November.

Someone could conceivably win the first election and then lose the one in November thereby only serving for a few months in Washington.

Weird fact: The last two Alaska House representatives died in aircrafts.

Without Palin there Palin there might never have been MTG or Boebert. She opened the door and showed that you could be electable as someone with no actual interest in carrying out the duties of being a politician. You're right though, she's going to have to up her game if she hopes to compete with those two and all of the new nutcases who will no doubt be elected this year in the same category.

Palin didn't even finish her term as Governor of Alaska that time. It'll be interesting to see if the voters there hold a grudge over that. The Ranked Voting might also favour a moderate there. Alaska has been slowly getting less red in recent times. Trump only got 52% of the vote there in 2020 and Don Young didn't break 55% in his final 4 elections.

Update on this.

Trump giving Perdue 500k is a lot, but in terms of this race its not really a game changer as Kemp has a serious war chest.

Trump has disowned previous endorsements to save face, but his loathing of Kemp is unreal.

Its going to be interesting though if this increased effort will be enough to derail Kemp.

Also keeping an eye on endorsements,,,,

Vance looks like he may get it in the Ohio senate race,,,its an odd one as he isn't really challenging the front runners who are pretty establishment GOP.

So why back a possible loser? Vance is backed by Peter Thiel who is pally with Trump so figure it out!

Oh and for good measure

According to a leaked discussion paper from the supreme court, the Trump Conservative loaded bench is going to overturn the Roe v Wade 1973 decision.

This will be a huge and divisive issue in the states if true

The numbers add up anyway. Trump's 3 picks and the 2 original hard-right votes (Thomas & Alito) were always going to vote for it. The 3 liberals were always going to vote against. Roberts was the only one that there was any uncertainty about. Given that he seems to prize the court's reputation and standing above all else it makes sense that he would vote against as he knows that there will be a lot of blowback on it over this.

In the long run it will be interesting how popular extremely tough abortion laws will be in all of those states that will bring them in immediately. It's very easy to be in favour of them when they're never going to be enacted. It will be another thing when the inevitable stories of young teenagers pregnant by rape and incest and unable to get an abortion start to develop. The religious right will stick with them for sure but the people in the middle will tip the balance.

not getting an abortion may be the least of their worries. some red states will criminalise abortion for the woman involved including travelling out of state to get one.

So apparently when that decision is officially announced next month abortion will become illegal, immediately, in 18 states thanks to them planning for this very outcome in advance. 4 more states have laws that restrict abortion to 6 weeks and another 4 are likely to pass laws in reaction to the ruling.