Fancies For Today III

for a tenner,you get the refund on the win portion of placed bets even if the horse is placed

Sigh I went with the slightly better odds at bet365, of course only paying 2 places.

If it is any consoIation I think Ladbrokes only paid 2 places in the end. Maybe Zimmer can confirm?

There was a non runner at 12.42 today

Chester starts today and as most punters know the draw plays a big part in most races and low numbers are best.

There are a few tricky non-handicaps today and as fields are small there may not be as much emphasis on the draw,,but as there is not a lot of form to go on they may be best leftt alone.

However,PP is giving money back as a free bet (a tenner) if one finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th and it looks to me that Joseph OBrien's ABOVE THE CURVE can hardly be out of the 1st 4 and in fact should win.

The days best bet is BROKEN SPEAR last years winner who is not badly drawn in stall 4 and on almost the same mark as last year.

Last nights 9/1 is gone but the 13/2 4 places available is very good value and should be taken ew.

No joy from my optimistic small stake handicap today hoping to do better friday.

The Chester Cup has long been one of my favourite races,a 2 and a quarter mile handicap where the draw is supposed to play a part is certainly unique in UK racing.

Some interesting stats,low numbers are favoured without a doubt but high drawn horses should not be written off and a few of the highest drawn horses have managed to win.

A lot of valuable handicaps are now being contested by higher rated horses and weights carried by winners are rising all the time.

Six year olds won 8 of the last 19 runnings,4 year olds won 4,5 year olds 3 and 7 year olds 3.with one winner aged 8.

Last years race was fought out by two of the topweights and they could well fight out the finish again this year.

I am picking 3 against the field and will do a few small stake forecast and tri-cast bets.

THE GRAND VISIR was 2nd in this last year and has a good chance of turning the tables on Facon Eight( at 20/1)( who beat him at the revised weights,RAJINSKY ridden by Harry Davies claiming 7 lbs is 10/1 and this good stayer has a real chance as has CLEVELAND,very lightly raced and an unknown quantity.

However as he is trained by AOB and ridden by Ryan Moore he could be anything and at around 13/2 must be considered.

A few placed today and was glad that Heart and Soul got 4th in the 4,20,no winners but no harm done and some good racing to look forward to tomorrow.

Books got the cash today,it was not too bad as i mainly fancied some big priced horses.

With a bit of luck it could have been better DARKNESS at 22/1 was 7th ARATUS 18/1 was ninth and Paddy paid 6 places.

ANNA BUNINA WAS6TH,Paddy paying 5 places.

CORMIER was back on the bridle and running on strongly when brought down after a massive jump (worth watching seemed to cover a huge amount of ground when running into a faller 3 out.

Too early to say if he would be involved at the finish but to my eye he was getting competitive and i will keep my eye on him for a decent handicap hurdle.

Just could not quite get up but it was a very safe punt ew just a pity he was unable to get up.

Global Storm 1.50 York has top weight of 9 stone 12 to carry but has the 7 lb claim of Harry Davies which will reduce the welter burden to 9 stone 5 lbs.

An excellent 3rd to Hukum in a group 2 at Meydan and before that winner of a good handicap also at Meydan.

There are some useful horses receiving weight from Global Storm but at 8 to1 the Godolpin gelding is worth an ew bet.

GIBRALTARIAN 5.45 Fontwell was a good 2nd in a handicap hurdle 8 days ago,gets into todays race with just 10 stone on her back (inc good apprentice 7 lb claim)while 3 at the head of the weights are conceding up to 2 stone.

Suited by ground good or good to firm she ran we in a handicap hurdle Last year before coming out 8 days later to win and she seems to be following a similar pattern this year.At 9 to 2 she is good value ew imo.

No joy the parachute did not open.

Nice

Nice one zimmer

Nice to end the mini losing run with an 11/2 winner,,Suroor is on fire 3 winners today from 4 runners.

Keep an eye on his runners for the next few days.

The 4.48 at Beverly is a tough handicap and it may pay to consider horses who have form at this tricky course.

Top weight MOTARAJEL can finish well off a fast pace and might get that today.

BIT OF A QUIRKE has plenty course form and has dropped to a good mark and has a chance.

ROCKET DANCER won a couple of weeks ago and can be competitive again.

A combination tri-cast and forecast for small stakes might be the answer to the puzzle with 9/1,7/1 and 9/2 available on the 3 horses.

A little ew on any of the 3 might get a return and at 9/1 MOTARAJEL looks a bit of value despite top weight if there is a fast pace.

Cicely ran well over a trip I thought might be too far,worth backing when back on the AW.

Mitbaahy has a few pounds to find with a few in the 2.50 at Sandown however the horse seems to be getting better and with Varian in good form is worth a few quid ew at 9 to2.

Very nice, cheers Zimmer

The Ascot stakes is run over two and a half miles at Ascot on tuesday at 5 oc.

Despite the name the race is a handicap and is always a good betting race over an extreme distance not often seen in the racing calender.

The race was won last year by Reshoun,trained by Tan Williams and owned by Marwin Koukash who loves to have winners at Chester.Reshoun does not seem to like Chester and while he was entered at the recent Chester meeting he was always going to wait for this.

He came to my attention two and a half weeks when he ran in a mile and a half race at Haydock going off at a huge price,held up out the back in that he was never put into the race before running on very well to finish 4th.

It was 3 years since he last ran in a mile and a half race and i made a note to keep an eye on him for a repeat win at Ascot.

I did not back him at 20s ante-post because he still held an entry for Chester,the 20s is gone now but he is available at 14s with PP 6 places and i backed him today at 14s.

Probably little point in opposing Baaeed who looks too good,betting without Order of Australia may be value but I am not betting on the race.

The Royal Hunt Cup takes place tomorrow over a mile at Ascot at 5 oc and is something of a cavalry charge with 30 runners chasing the £94,500 pot,well handicapped horses laid out for this was the way to go in the past but is changing nowdays as classier types are aimed at the prize.

Horses aged 4 on the way up seem best and 11 of the last 15 runnings have been won by that age group and significantly 6 of the last 7 were 4 year olds,13 of the 30 runners are 4 year olds and thats where i looked to try to find the winner.

Not a good race for favs the average sp over the last 20 years is around 18/1.Horses drawn twenty or higher have won 5 of the last ten runnings and the other 5 runnings were won by those drawn 11 or lower so horses drawn close to the middle are to be avoided and those drawn either high or low have a better chance.

FANTASTIC FOX is the one i like,drawn in stall 21 he was a staying on third in a good handicap at Epsom 12 days ago finishing well behind Totally Charming and now 5 lbs better off.

At 10 or 11 to 1 Totally Charming is nearly half the price of FANTASTIC FOX so the value for me is quite clear.

Trained by the excellent Roger Varian he represents a good ew bet,6 places everywhere and 7 with PP.

Varian has two other 4 year olds in the race who also have chances but for me FANTASTIC FOX is the bet ew.

Keep posting.

You help find plenty of winners for people on here.

One small setback, sure plenty more winners will overcome that