Fancies For Today III

zimmermania

It was in shops only,the value of taking the best deals from bookies was shown again today;

JUMBY missed the break and was right out the back,ran on well well to just get 6th place and my bet was with Paddy who went 6 places online and in shops.

zimmermania

for a tenner,you get the refund on the win portion of placed bets even if the horse is placed

zimmermania

Ebaiyra looks a banker ew at 5 to 2 ew in the 3 oc Newmarket if you bet in Ladbrokes.

This horse is fit and with Lads paying 3 places is banker material ew.

crushproof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119000052#Comment_119000052

Sigh I went with the slightly better odds at bet365, of course only paying 2 places.

ShamoBuc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119001828#Comment_119001828

Yeah, Its a mistake you should only make once really, extra place over price would be advantageous in the long run. Not always possible of course as people mightn't have an account with the respective bookie.

CH3OH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119001828#Comment_119001828

If it is any consoIation I think Ladbrokes only paid 2 places in the end. Maybe Zimmer can confirm?

There was a non runner at 12.42 today

zimmermania

Correct,Ladbrokes rules clearly state that if 6 runners or less take part in a race where 3 places were on offer the bet reverts back to normal place betting rules.

zimmermania

Chester starts today and as most punters know the draw plays a big part in most races and low numbers are best.

There are a few tricky non-handicaps today and as fields are small there may not be as much emphasis on the draw,,but as there is not a lot of form to go on they may be best leftt alone.

However,PP is giving money back as a free bet (a tenner) if one finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th and it looks to me that Joseph OBrien's ABOVE THE CURVE can hardly be out of the 1st 4 and in fact should win.

The days best bet is BROKEN SPEAR last years winner who is not badly drawn in stall 4 and on almost the same mark as last year.

Last nights 9/1 is gone but the 13/2 4 places available is very good value and should be taken ew.

Konny Rool

Ormonde Stakes

INVITE 11/1 Nap looks a cracking each way bet tomorrow in the 3.10 Chester. Not at all liking the favourite here, might not get a place even and is plenty short at 11/8. Likes to be held up and it could well be curtains for her if trying to come late and wide at the Roodee.

Hamish is a bit short at 5/1 , and has an absence to overcome, but that mightn't be a major concern. He may go close but it's hard to see him win. Maybe go 1/2pt win on Balding's horse on the offchance.

Alounak 8/1 would have been a stonking bet, but the absence has to be a massive negative.

Believe In Love 9/2 could be scuppered by her wide draw in stall 10, for one who would probably be in the front rank, absence looks a big negative

Invite came 2nd over track and trip in September, likes soft ground, and will probably come late and wide, but at a far better price than Albaflora.

Konny Rool

1.30 Chester MILITIA is the only one I can give a live squeak to in the opener. Has the plum draw in the one box. Is a C/D winner on good to soft. Has come 3rd over C/D also, in another race, on soft going. Those were in lesser grades than today's race. The C/D win came in Class 4 - this a Class 2 Handicap. Has had a recent run at Ripon after a 6mth layoff. Can possibly dictate here under Graham Lee. Will do me at 7s each way.

Has options too - potentially he might be seen to best effect taking a lead. I don't think anything else can be given out and out claims. Others may prefer better ground or have poor draws, or both. Bossipop from wide enough in stall 8 loves to lead, so for him to hit the lids would be ideal. Unlikely (very very) that Bossipop can win, and probably not much shorter than evens bet in running to land a place; that's if he gets an early clear lead.

yep, I'm seeing nothing [else] that's gonna shorten too much, and Militia could go off at 5s or 11/2. Is already seeing some support and is as short as 6s, and Boyle's are biggest of the books at 15/2.

Night On Earth 5/1 is relatively unraced on anything approaching soft ground. A couple of runs last year on good to soft for Nigel Tinkler, over 5f at Catterick and 6f at Nottingham, both in Class4s. Was not his best showing as he ran free in both those races, and finished last and second last in them two races. Nonetheless I have a feeling that soft will be a hindrance to his claims. Doesn't mean he won't travel well for a while in this from his good draw in four. He might even look likely for a while, but I think he's vulnerable. Will keep an eye on going and hope it's still soft, as if it's good (ground may dry - I don't know the Clerk of the course, or what the weather's doing over there) then he's got a live chance methinks.

good luck

zimmermania

Nothing stands out for me at Chester yet but for an interest two badly drawn horses and two others will make up a small stake ew yankee for me at big prices. All 4 handle the conditions and most handle the track so for a fun ew yankee here goes.

1.30 BOSSIPOP,goes on the ground but has a high draw 20/1.

2.05 ALEEZ DANCER 12/1

3.10 BELIEVE IN LOVE 7/1

3.40 SARVAN 11/1

zimmermania

No joy from my optimistic small stake handicap today hoping to do better friday.

The Chester Cup has long been one of my favourite races,a 2 and a quarter mile handicap where the draw is supposed to play a part is certainly unique in UK racing.

Some interesting stats,low numbers are favoured without a doubt but high drawn horses should not be written off and a few of the highest drawn horses have managed to win.

A lot of valuable handicaps are now being contested by higher rated horses and weights carried by winners are rising all the time.

Six year olds won 8 of the last 19 runnings,4 year olds won 4,5 year olds 3 and 7 year olds 3.with one winner aged 8.

Last years race was fought out by two of the topweights and they could well fight out the finish again this year.

I am picking 3 against the field and will do a few small stake forecast and tri-cast bets.

THE GRAND VISIR was 2nd in this last year and has a good chance of turning the tables on Facon Eight( at 20/1)( who beat him at the revised weights,RAJINSKY ridden by Harry Davies claiming 7 lbs is 10/1 and this good stayer has a real chance as has CLEVELAND,very lightly raced and an unknown quantity.

However as he is trained by AOB and ridden by Ryan Moore he could be anything and at around 13/2 must be considered.

zimmermania

Chester handicaps is where my money is going today.

1.30 A few of these are closely matched but at the weights REVICH comes out best and with no ground worries, a good draw and a top claiming apprentice up is the bet ew at around 6/1

3.15 THE GRAND VISER has been already suggested when 20/1 is now 16s but with extra places is still value and i will also back RAJINSKY ew who has Harry Davies on board taking off 7 lbs.

4.20 HEART OF SOUL runs for Koukash who loves to have winners here and his horses are always trained with Chester in mind,goes 4 places and is best price at 5/1 and that looks value to me.

HEART OF SOUL has won 3 times here and is one lb lower than his last win so is a good ew bet,the last time he was rated 79 he won and can do so again today.

zimmermania

A few placed today and was glad that Heart and Soul got 4th in the 4,20,no winners but no harm done and some good racing to look forward to tomorrow.

zimmermania

The Victoria Cup 4.05 Ascot is usually won by an improving handicapper on the way up.

7 furlongs is a specialist trip and form over the trip is essential.

I fancy two against the field,

Aratus trained by Clive Cox has a bit of weight to carry but his trainer won this last year and this one should go close,

I mentioned Darkness two weeks ago when he did not appear to be too busy but still got the place money for me.

Darkness was bought in France and has not shown his best form yet in the UK for David OMeara.could be very well handicapped.

The other big handicap is the Swinton hurdle Haydock 3.oc and one I backed at Cheltenham, Cormier has a good chance.

The horse was 2nd in this last year a d ca go well again this year.

Anna Bunina was a good winner of the Scottish Champion hurdle and I suggested it was worth backing on Boards.

Has a good chance again tomorrow but is very short with the Books 5 and 6 places available and the horses mentioned can go well.

zimmermania

Books got the cash today,it was not too bad as i mainly fancied some big priced horses.

With a bit of luck it could have been better DARKNESS at 22/1 was 7th ARATUS 18/1 was ninth and Paddy paid 6 places.

ANNA BUNINA WAS6TH,Paddy paying 5 places.

CORMIER was back on the bridle and running on strongly when brought down after a massive jump (worth watching seemed to cover a huge amount of ground when running into a faller 3 out.

Too early to say if he would be involved at the finish but to my eye he was getting competitive and i will keep my eye on him for a decent handicap hurdle.

zimmermania

Open Mind 3.40 Wol is overpriced at 4 to1 on his first handicap,an easy winner over 6 furlongs 18 days ago has run well over 7 furlongs last year.

The horse who was second came out and won and the fourth also ran well next time,the next two in the betting raced against each other last time and there .ay not be much between them.

First time cheekpiecesworked well last time and are retained.

Open Mind may be much better than this grade and with stable (Suroor)in form he looks a bet to nothing ew and may go off much shorter than the 4s available now.

zimmermania

Just could not quite get up but it was a very safe punt ew just a pity he was unable to get up.

zimmermania

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118967770#Comment_118967770

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118967770#Comment_118967770

NOMADIC EMPIRE out tomorrow in what is probably a tougher race in David OMearas home track York 2.25.

Its a big field but PP paying 6 places and it is difficult to see NOMADIC out of the places,has good form at the course and is a serious ew punt at 6/1

zimmermania

Global Storm 1.50 York has top weight of 9 stone 12 to carry but has the 7 lb claim of Harry Davies which will reduce the welter burden to 9 stone 5 lbs.

An excellent 3rd to Hukum in a group 2 at Meydan and before that winner of a good handicap also at Meydan.

There are some useful horses receiving weight from Global Storm but at 8 to1 the Godolpin gelding is worth an ew bet.

zimmermania

Global Storm only 4th and Nomadic Empire faded out of contention.

Books on top again today.

zimmermania

GIBRALTARIAN 5.45 Fontwell was a good 2nd in a handicap hurdle 8 days ago,gets into todays race with just 10 stone on her back (inc good apprentice 7 lb claim)while 3 at the head of the weights are conceding up to 2 stone.

Suited by ground good or good to firm she ran we in a handicap hurdle Last year before coming out 8 days later to win and she seems to be following a similar pattern this year.At 9 to 2 she is good value ew imo.

zimmermania

On a small losing run and hoping PARACHUTE 3.oc York can end it,ran his best race for some time lto when only beaten a length and a quarter.

Tom Marquand on board today and he knows the gelding well and first time blinkers may do the trick.

Paddy Power are the sponsors and are paying 4 places even though there are only 10 runners,that looks value to me and i am hoping the PARACHUTE opens today! Was 6/1 an hour ago 11/2 now but i hope it may drift a bit.

zimmermania

No joy the parachute did not open.

zimmermania

The group 3 at Newbury 2.10 can go to the lightly raced ESHAADA trained by Roger Varian,the filly has already won a group1 and should be fit for her first run of the season at around 3/1 10/3.

DUBAI HOPE at around 5/1 is the ew bet in the handicap at 4.20 Chelmsford.

This is a competitive handicap but DUBAI HOPE will be fitter now after a satisfactory first run.

bassy

Nice

Nice one zimmer

crushproof

Very nice, cheers Zimmer

zimmermania

Nice to end the mini losing run with an 11/2 winner,,Suroor is on fire 3 winners today from 4 runners.

Keep an eye on his runners for the next few days.

zimmermania

Suroor has just one going today,Briiant Light 3.40 Ripon.

The horse has been running in better class and is now well handicapped,this is the first run since running a good race in Meydan and with the yard in great form is an ew bet at 5s with just 8 runners.

Reidy

Royal Lake in the first at race at Stratford. Will be hard beat here if building on last run and Oliver stammers in the first race ripon e-w