Chester handicaps is where my money is going today.
1.30 A few of these are closely matched but at the weights REVICH comes out best and with no ground worries, a good draw and a top claiming apprentice up is the bet ew at around 6/1
3.15 THE GRAND VISER has been already suggested when 20/1 is now 16s but with extra places is still value and i will also back RAJINSKY ew who has Harry Davies on board taking off 7 lbs.
4.20 HEART OF SOUL runs for Koukash who loves to have winners here and his horses are always trained with Chester in mind,goes 4 places and is best price at 5/1 and that looks value to me.
HEART OF SOUL has won 3 times here and is one lb lower than his last win so is a good ew bet,the last time he was rated 79 he won and can do so again today.
No joy from my optimistic small stake handicap today hoping to do better friday.
The Chester Cup has long been one of my favourite races,a 2 and a quarter mile handicap where the draw is supposed to play a part is certainly unique in UK racing.
Some interesting stats,low numbers are favoured without a doubt but high drawn horses should not be written off and a few of the highest drawn horses have managed to win.
A lot of valuable handicaps are now being contested by higher rated horses and weights carried by winners are rising all the time.
Six year olds won 8 of the last 19 runnings,4 year olds won 4,5 year olds 3 and 7 year olds 3.with one winner aged 8.
Last years race was fought out by two of the topweights and they could well fight out the finish again this year.
I am picking 3 against the field and will do a few small stake forecast and tri-cast bets.
THE GRAND VISIR was 2nd in this last year and has a good chance of turning the tables on Facon Eight( at 20/1)( who beat him at the revised weights,RAJINSKY ridden by Harry Davies claiming 7 lbs is 10/1 and this good stayer has a real chance as has CLEVELAND,very lightly raced and an unknown quantity.
However as he is trained by AOB and ridden by Ryan Moore he could be anything and at around 13/2 must be considered.
Nothing stands out for me at Chester yet but for an interest two badly drawn horses and two others will make up a small stake ew yankee for me at big prices. All 4 handle the conditions and most handle the track so for a fun ew yankee here goes.
1.30 BOSSIPOP,goes on the ground but has a high draw 20/1.
2.05 ALEEZ DANCER 12/1
3.10 BELIEVE IN LOVE 7/1
3.40 SARVAN 11/1
1.30 Chester MILITIA is the only one I can give a live squeak to in the opener. Has the plum draw in the one box. Is a C/D winner on good to soft. Has come 3rd over C/D also, in another race, on soft going. Those were in lesser grades than today's race. The C/D win came in Class 4 - this a Class 2 Handicap. Has had a recent run at Ripon after a 6mth layoff. Can possibly dictate here under Graham Lee. Will do me at 7s each way.
Has options too - potentially he might be seen to best effect taking a lead. I don't think anything else can be given out and out claims. Others may prefer better ground or have poor draws, or both. Bossipop from wide enough in stall 8 loves to lead, so for him to hit the lids would be ideal. Unlikely (very very) that Bossipop can win, and probably not much shorter than evens bet in running to land a place; that's if he gets an early clear lead.
yep, I'm seeing nothing [else] that's gonna shorten too much, and Militia could go off at 5s or 11/2. Is already seeing some support and is as short as 6s, and Boyle's are biggest of the books at 15/2.
Night On Earth 5/1 is relatively unraced on anything approaching soft ground. A couple of runs last year on good to soft for Nigel Tinkler, over 5f at Catterick and 6f at Nottingham, both in Class4s. Was not his best showing as he ran free in both those races, and finished last and second last in them two races. Nonetheless I have a feeling that soft will be a hindrance to his claims. Doesn't mean he won't travel well for a while in this from his good draw in four. He might even look likely for a while, but I think he's vulnerable. Will keep an eye on going and hope it's still soft, as if it's good (ground may dry - I don't know the Clerk of the course, or what the weather's doing over there) then he's got a live chance methinks.
good luck
Ormonde Stakes
INVITE 11/1 Nap looks a cracking each way bet tomorrow in the 3.10 Chester. Not at all liking the favourite here, might not get a place even and is plenty short at 11/8. Likes to be held up and it could well be curtains for her if trying to come late and wide at the Roodee.
Hamish is a bit short at 5/1 , and has an absence to overcome, but that mightn't be a major concern. He may go close but it's hard to see him win. Maybe go 1/2pt win on Balding's horse on the offchance.
Alounak 8/1 would have been a stonking bet, but the absence has to be a massive negative.
Believe In Love 9/2 could be scuppered by her wide draw in stall 10, for one who would probably be in the front rank, absence looks a big negative
Invite came 2nd over track and trip in September, likes soft ground, and will probably come late and wide, but at a far better price than Albaflora.
Chester starts today and as most punters know the draw plays a big part in most races and low numbers are best.
There are a few tricky non-handicaps today and as fields are small there may not be as much emphasis on the draw,,but as there is not a lot of form to go on they may be best leftt alone.
However,PP is giving money back as a free bet (a tenner) if one finishes 2nd 3rd or 4th and it looks to me that Joseph OBrien's ABOVE THE CURVE can hardly be out of the 1st 4 and in fact should win.
The days best bet is BROKEN SPEAR last years winner who is not badly drawn in stall 4 and on almost the same mark as last year.
Last nights 9/1 is gone but the 13/2 4 places available is very good value and should be taken ew.
Correct,Ladbrokes rules clearly state that if 6 runners or less take part in a race where 3 places were on offer the bet reverts back to normal place betting rules.
If it is any consoIation I think Ladbrokes only paid 2 places in the end. Maybe Zimmer can confirm?
There was a non runner at 12.42 today
Yeah, Its a mistake you should only make once really, extra place over price would be advantageous in the long run. Not always possible of course as people mightn't have an account with the respective bookie.
Sigh I went with the slightly better odds at bet365, of course only paying 2 places.
Ebaiyra looks a banker ew at 5 to 2 ew in the 3 oc Newmarket if you bet in Ladbrokes.
This horse is fit and with Lads paying 3 places is banker material ew.
for a tenner,you get the refund on the win portion of placed bets even if the horse is placed
It was in shops only,the value of taking the best deals from bookies was shown again today;
JUMBY missed the break and was right out the back,ran on well well to just get 6th place and my bet was with Paddy who went 6 places online and in shops.
Must be in store for Paddy's only, not appearing online
so full refund if your horse doesnt win or place?
I have been told that Jim Bolger expects Boundless Ocean to run ok in the 2000 gns as its money back all losers in Paddys it's worth having a few win bets for small money.
NOTRE BELLE BETE has been winning AW handicaps by coming late and running on strongly,lightly raced on turf his last run in the Lincoln on soft ground was not as bad as it seemed finishing in 9th not beaten all that far without ever really getting into the race.
He has form on grass in ireland and ran in listed company and was even thought good enough to send to Ascot to run in a group 3.
An ew bet at 8s in the 2.25 Newmarket,nothing else stands out and i am backing both ew.
The 2,000 gns looks like being a great race to watch,if Perfect Power does not get lit up he might test Native Trail but that is a big if.
The 1.50 at Doncaster is a good contest with 21 runners and 6 places available
Horses carrying between 8 and 9 stone used to win this but like a lot of big handicaps these days classier horses are taking part and horses carrying over 9 stone have won the last 4 runnings.
JUMBY is one i like and even with 9 stone 9 on his back can he win this.
Two and a half weeks ago over the course and distance JUMBY missed the break but ran on well in the last half furlong to snatch 3rd,however that was a group 3 and JUMBY may prove to good for these despite his big weight.
Ladbrokes go 3 places in the listed fillies race at 3.15 at Goodwood and that is where i will be backing two ew against the field.
Number 2 has no chance,num 3 is offf for 587 days and has a bit to find,num 1 is rated 87 and is fav on possible potential rather than what she achieved,num 7 has form in group company in ireland for Jessica Harrington but disappointed in last couple of runs and is now trained in the UK.
Roger Varian saddles 2 and i prefer the chance of SAVE A FOREST who was 4th in the group 1 Oaks and can do well this year,he also saddles Lady Hayes who has a chance on form.Both are rated 100
Both are around 9/2 with Ladbrokes and i will back both ew with a bigger amount on SAVE A FOREST.
I tipped up Cicely at a good price when she won and though a bit disappointing last time she can get back to winning ways in the 4.oc Wol the scene of her last win,around 9/2. Boyles go 4 places.
Fingers crossed for rain in the Curragh before monday where Cailin Cliste is due to run again.
No joy today,the patent was probably the right idea as nothing stood out and i donated 70 euro to Paddy.
I do not fancy getting involved in the big field handicaps today so i am backing 3 in an ew patent at Punchestown.
GRANGE WALK 4.15 would probably have beaten Mt Leinster last time but for falling and a clear round will probably be good enough,Paddy goes 4 places.
GO ANOTHER ONE is running to a level of form that may be good enough in the 4.50 a race that may not take a lot of winning.
3rd selection is the enigmatic PAISLEY PARK who is big enough at 15.2 and if doing his best could win the 5.25,though this is a race that could provide a different winner if run every week,i will not go mad but a fiver ew patent (7 bets) will provide an interest.
Odds are 3/1 9/2 and 15/2.
Magic zim.
Was in Pp shop and I see it's only 5 places in the 3.40,its still 6 places online where I did my bet.
TAHITIAN PRINCE was ready to win first time out last year and never stopped improving all season winning 3 on the AW and one on turf,should have nearly won off this mark on last run over c and d but did not get a run in time.
The ground is a slight concern (has run well on good) as no way of knowing if as good on firm,the ground is good to firm now and that might be ok.Drifting a little to 9/2 and may drift a little further and is an ew bet in the 1.50 at Ascot.
LIFE IN THE PARK won a qualifier for the for the Adare Manor handicap hurdle in Tramore by 17 lengths two and a half weeks ago,galloping all over the field.
The handicapper may have let him in lightly off a mark of 119,he may not have beaten much in the Tramore race but he did it very easily.
Lightly raced (only 3 runs) he may be even better than he has shown to date,in his first run over hurdles he was beaten 6 lengths running on well at the finish by Freedom to Dream in a maiden hurdle when he started 9/4 2nd fav.
Freedom to Dream is 5/2 to win the valuable hurdle at 4.15 and Sams Choice who was 2nd that day also runs in the race.
Freedom to Dream is rated 133 suggesting LIFE IN THE PARK is well handicapped on 119 and with 6 places available is an ew bet at around 8s.
And just for good measure De Bromhead bought him after he fell at the last when 15 lengths clear on his only run in a point to point.
Of course it was way too early to determine how the race would have worked out but i was happy with the way he travelled to 4 out before he made a mistake and fell.
I will not be surprised if he is not competitive again before Galway.
I hear Patrick Mullen's. Is fancied for 2 bumpers expected to win maybe a double . I'm on two singles and a double.👍
I presume it's a typo, but the bookies must be watching you if you brought a horse in from 200/1 to 14/1.
Hugh Taylor better watch out 😀
Punchestown never used to get all of my attention coming as the jumps are fading and the flat getting into full swing.
However there is some first class racing and some real betting opportunities (though not today with two bumpers and a hunters chase) in the coming days.
The 4.50 a handicap hurdle is the only race worth looking at from a betting point and most winners of this in the last 20 years were priced between 10 and 20/1 and normally carry less than 11 stone.
One that caught my eye is HEARTS ARE TRUMPS owned by J P and trained by Des McDonagh who trains just a few nowdays but can still get one ready.
He was beaten by Glancalso owned by J P 10 days ago and is now 7 lbs better off.JP likes to win these races and we can be sure both will be going all out to win.
HEARTS ARE TRUMPS has won here before and has also won at the Gaway festival off higher marks and is worth a little ew 5 places at the 14 or 16/1 thats available on ground that suits.
