Future of Micheal Martin

I don't understand why he would do it that way and run the risk of getting dragged kicking and screaming out of the FF leadership if as you say he has already decided in his own mind he won't be leading FF into the next GE and being tanaiste means little to him.

If he is planning to announce in say May next year that he is stepping down as FF leader, well why not do it six months earlier and put to bed any strife within the party over the issue.

He’s the ultimate headless chicken- absolutely spineless. Devolved everything to committees and “experts”. Atrocious. Hands down the worst “Taoiseach” ever

Martin replaced the actual worst Taoiseach ever… That was borne out to a good extent pre covid but once the crisis hit…. and when a gun was put to his head, Leo’s legacy will be indelibly borne out as during the biggest modern post war crises of the state and planet, he backed business interests over that of the wellbeing and health of the citizens…unforgivable…

really showed a lack of backbone, bravery, intelligence, responsibility and gravitas..

Varadkar I recall when asked admitted that although he has been ‘right a lot of the time’, and…’the Government has made mistakes during the COVID-19 pandemic….’ Yes… the government fûcked up but HE was mostly right….

that single statement tells you everything you want to know about Leo…

martin won’t last post pandemic… I just think as a result of the ordeal… him being 61… he’ll walk away

Most leadership changes here are not heaves. As others have said, sometime in 2023 the party will begin to look at that. There should be an agreed orderly changing of the guard but it's not their biggest problem anyway. That problem is persuading people to vote for the party and there is every chance they will become the third biggest party on a new election. If people want an alternative SF are setting themselves up to be that option so FF have their work cut out to change minds on that.

My Predictions:

• Easiest one is that he won't be leader of FF for the next General Election. They're itching to get rid of him even though there is no obvious replacement
• Therefore he won't stand again for election (as is the tradition with ex-Taoiseagh when they step down as party leaders) - great news for Michael McGrath as he hung on for the final seat in CSC in 2020 and there likely won't be 2 FF seats there next time.
• As for when he'll be ousted as leader - I think the drumbeat for that will start in earnest when the Dail resumes after its Summer recess. He'll basically be a lame duck Taoiseach between September and December. He might even step down as leader of FF while staying on as Taoiseach in order to allow them to run the election for his successor (similar to Brian Cowen in 2011) before he leaves office.
• Martin's successor will become the first FF leader never to become Taoiseach