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Overpopulation

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 22,303 CMod ✭✭✭✭Pawwed Rig


    Well it would yes. Blasting us back to the stone age would solve all of the environmental issues. Probably not a desirable outcome though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,811 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    The throwaway and ultra convenience culture, and mass consumerism for the sake of it culture, needs to be destroyed yes. Current economic model can only lead to resource wars, famine etc. I don't believe we will come up with a better way of living but either way what we're currently doing is a one way ticket to some really bad stuff.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,908 ✭✭✭zom


    "Well it would yes. Blasting us back to the stone age would solve all of the environmental issues. Probably not a desirable outcome though."

    Speak for yourself! ;) A lot of people will support it as long as they still will be able to publish to social media how environmental friendly they got ;);););)



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Will Mother Nature step in at some point, more and more people on the planet living cheek by jowl. Covid was a little warning of what could happen if a real deadly pandemic came along. What would happen if something like a much more contagious Ebola virus came along or a bacteria that can evade all antibiotics, or a massive crash in bee populations, or more areas of the planet becoming uninhabitable. All that could happen anyway. Nobody wants that to happen but humans are becoming a plague on the planet, stripping it bare and polluting it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭donaghs


    (West) Germany’s reached a negative birth rate in the early 70s, and has used immigration since then to prevent bigger population decline. Same with other developed European countries.

    ireland was a bit behind , but birth rates have been falling since the 70s, we have a negative birth rate now. however in the last ten years our population has increased year on year due to immigration.

    Russia and Japan have falling populations, and not much immigration (particularly Japan)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,419 ✭✭✭Hamachi


    There is quite a bit that's factually incorrect in this post.

    1. Whilst it's true that Germany has been below replacement since the late '70s, the issue was particularly acute in East Germany. Fertility fell off a cliff in the East after re-unification. The Eastern fertility rate was as low as 1.1 / 1.2 in the '90s. However, West Germany never declined to the same extent, typically hovering between 1.3-1.5. As I mentioned in a previous post, there are actually green shoots emerging in Germany. Their fertility rate is now above 1.6 and there is no reason to suggest that this upward trajectory will not continue.
    2. Ireland does not have a negative birth rate, nor is our population growth solely attributable to immigration. I really wish people would stop making these wildly incorrect statements, without understanding even the basics of demographics. Whilst the Irish fertility rate has dropped since the '70s, we have recorded very substantial natural increase (births - deaths) every single year since records began. Indeed, our fertility rate was at or just below replacement level (1.9 - 2.1) every year from 2000 - 2016. Case in point, in 2009, when Ireland recorded a fertility rate of 2.1, there were 47,000 more births than deaths in this country. Due to the pandemic our fertility rate declined to 1.65 in 2020. However, TOTAL 2020 population growth in Ireland was 34,000. Fully 23,000 or 68% of the 2020 increase attributes to natural growth, with the remaining 32% accounted for by immigration. 45% of the inward migration in 2020 was Irish nationals returning home from abroad. There is no reason that Ireland cannot return to a near replacement fertility rate. We are also fortunate that the relatively high birth rates from 2000 - 2015 will generate an echo effect in 10-25 years as that generation begins family formation. This should replenish our population well into the 21st century.
    3. Japan is experiencing what looks like an intractable demographic crisis. They are currently losing >0.5 million people per year. This is also compounded by the fact that the country is 'super-aged' i.e. almost 30% of the population is at least 65 years old. The scenario in Russia is less pessimistic. Their population pyramid is not as aged as that of Japan. Putin is also acutely aware of the demographic issues facing the country and has committed to throwing resources at it. Given the autocratic nature of Russia under Putin's leadership, it would not be a surprise to see a future improvement in Russian demographics.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,811 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Not true, Germany have plenty of incentives for citizens to have kids but don't let that get in the way of your conspiracy theories.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,419 ✭✭✭Hamachi


    He's not wrong. There is a whole host of family-friendly initiatives available in Germany. There is decent provision of affordable Kindergarten places across the entire country, something that's a pipe dream in Ireland right now.

    The real reason for low German birth rates is the archaic attitude towards combining motherhood and a career. Until recently, mothers who worked were perceived as 'Rabenmutter'. It's translates literally as a raven mother or somebody who is uncaring. What this meant in practice was that educated German women felt that they had to choose either a career or motherhood. Thankfully, this attitude has changed in recent times, which is likely driving the uptick in the fertility rate there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,419 ✭✭✭Hamachi


    I don’t believe there was any conscious decisions taken to facilitate mass immigration.

    The Gastarbeiter program was instituted in the ‘50s because the country was absolutely decimated after WW2. They simply didn’t have the manpower to rebuild. It should be noted that it wasn’t just Turks who were invited. Hundreds of thousands of Italians, Spanish, Greeks, ex-Yugoslavians also arrived. This program was wound down in the ‘70s. It was the product of economic necessity, nothing else.

    The 2015 migrant influx is a different matter. Frankly, I think it was a brain fart by Merkel. Just five years earlier in 2010, she made a speech in Potsdam condemning multiculturalism as an utter failure. In 2015, on live TV, Merkel made a Palestinian refugee girl cry when she said that Germany cannot accept everybody and some migrants will need to be returned. The liberal media pounced on this situation and made Merkel out to be an uncaring monster. My gut tells me that her ‘come hither’ invitation later in 2015 was an attempt to course correct. However, she likely had no idea of the level of chaos it would unleash across Europe.

    This action has totally tainted Merkel’s legacy. Many Germans were and remain horrified at consequences of this decision. My closest friend from my time there is from a small, rural village in Bavaria. The village is now 50% asylum seekers as a result of Merkel’s ridiculous actions. Needless to say, he despises her and is glad to see her return to obscurity.

    In a nutshell, I don’t believe that Germany has ever deliberately pursued a policy to flood the country with foreign labor. The situation today is mostly a byproduct of WW2 and one incredibly stupid decision by an image conscious leader.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,811 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    Great post. The other thing is without constant immigration of people to take low paid jobs, this constant economic expansion at all costs, championed by the likes of the poster you're responding to, cannot carry on. Look around you in Ireland, every Spar, garage, cleaners, every meat factory, are all staffed by foreigners. If we stopped immigration we're still not going to fill those jobs even if the wages raised dramatically.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,563 ✭✭✭Tow


    I see some low paid jobs being filled much the same as their are in America. With old retired people, who are still able to work and/or whose pension does not provide enough money to live comfortability on. There are several factors at play, the country cannot afford to continue with the same level of state pension payments and more people will be renting all their lives.

    When is the money (including lost growth) Michael Noonan took in the Pension Levy going to be paid back?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,459 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    Do we just accept this line that state pensions are unaffordable? Without question.

    How are they going to afford pensions for the migrants then. How could they afford UBI or a four day week. Seems we must just accept our fate with insufficient scrutiny.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,908 ✭✭✭zom


    "The other thing is without constant immigration of people to take low paid jobs, this constant economic expansion at all costs, championed by the likes of the poster you're responding to, cannot carry on."

    The worst and most dangerous thinking. I'm terrified to still see it in Ireland. Same thinking as was in South States of USA when talked about abolishing slavery: "Without slaves we cannot carry on". Who do you think are migrants and why they come to Ireland? It is good for them and places they leave? DO WE WANT THEM TO LEAVE THEIR HOMES?

    Instead of expecting some poor, desperate people to come and do our jobs, we should think how we could all develop together so we can do our jobs here and they can do their in their places. And this is not a dream, this is actually happening now - go and see how Asia and Africa developed in last 50 years. There will be less and less desperate people willing to come and WORK here. And they will ask better money then before, whatever you like it or not.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_poverty#/media/File:Total_population_living_in_extreme_poverty,_by_world_region_(PovcalNet,_World_Bank_(1987_to_2013)),_OWID.svg



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Natural and historical immigration trends provide more than enough migrants to meet employment demands. The reason I say natural/historical is because of the influence of NGOs and lobby style groups in encouraging immigration from developing nations. European based immigration is also enough to meet those same demands considering unemployment rates in both Spain and Italy, whose economies have remained weak for decades, and are unlikely to become more stable over time. Fact is, we don't need the cheap labor from developing nations, especially since Eastern Europe has been absorbed into the EU.

    The comparison with slavery in the Southern US states is irrelevant, as economics/technology have both changed significantly since that time, and in any case, the US had a set of unique circumstances that doesn't translate to talking about the European situation.

    I've lived in both Asia and Africa... and I wonder if you've spent any time there yourself. Economic development tends to be exclusive to the cities, where government investment is focused firmly on property/infrastructure (as a way of cementing their own power), but that economic development also tends to be quite superficial, providing a surface impression of success, usually based on shaky economic assumptions. It's a lot like China's economic success which involved falsified economic reporting, corruption at all levels, government led funding of projects with massive failures on return in value, etc.

    As for the estimates on those living in poverty, I remember when the world bank announced the uplifting of the Chinese population out of poverty, and while living in China, I just couldn't see how it had actually happened. Oh, I've read the official reports... but I've also seen the tens of thousands of people waiting every morning in selected areas waiting for employers to pick them for low-skilled labor (a lot of like the images of the US after the great Depression), or the conditions of people living in shanty towns around many cities. Just as I'm aware of the brutal terms applied in temporary contracts and the sheer numbers of people who are unemployed (without welfare supports) for extended periods. China's economic success is faltering, and their government is turning once more to traditional Maoist behavior which will further encourage the exodus of foreign investment... A failing China removes a major destination for Asian and African immigration. South Korea and Japan have both experienced major slowdowns economically, again, decreasing the appeal of both countries as a destination.

    The truth is that few nations outside of Europe (with the exception of traditional powerhouses like Taiwan, or Singapore) are doing all that well. People are going to continue wanting to immigrate to Europe because of the established (and well known) standards of living, and earning potential. And judging by the state of international diplomacy, civil and other warfare, along with general economic conditions, we're going to see far more people wanting to come to Europe than before. The M.East used to suck up alot of the Asian immigration, but their own economies have become shaky in recent years, along with the social unrest between different forms of Islam. There's the same problem with African immigrants, with them likely turning away from the M.East and Asia, hearing the promotional pieces from NGOs, and the media, that Europe is supportive of them coming here.



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Carbon and population can be decoupled. And world population may peak at 2064 but in most Western countries it has already peaked. And no country that has every gone below a TFR of 2.1 has ever gone higher than that. The future will be poorer because of fewer people, and it may well collapse.

    As for whether state pensions will disappear, of course not.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I can't see any way in which the pension system is sustainable in the future. The figures don't seem to add up (with or without immigration) The population pyramids have inverted too much. I wouldn't expect to be receiving a state pension in 30-40 years time.

    Anyway, we will see I suppose.

    In over population news, Thailand has just recorded its first natural population decline in 2021 of -19,080 people.

    Births fell 7.29% (544,570)

    Deaths rose 12.41% (563,650)

    Fertility rate approx 1.1 to 1.2



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,020 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    When? Even with extensive restrictions in 2020, in the US at least CO2 production continued to climb. So, to 'decouple' population from CO2, you're looking for far more draconian restrictions and huge amounts of unproven changes (electric airplanes - no thanks), plus pervasive lifestyle changes.

    And if through some sequence of miracles you are able to reduce CO2 production and undo the climate changes already underway without also controlling population, it'll just go up again and cause other crises. It's not just CO2; there's not enough food, water or arable land, either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,034 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    The Hispanic population in the states going to keep climbing - and how'll the hardcore republican take that ?

    Hispanics tend to be conservative and thus tend to lean more republican than other minorities though.

    They tend to be religious, they tend to value traditional family units.

    They also support law and order because they don't like the drugs cartels infultrating destroying the society they have built for themselves in the US.

    Many immigrants work in the oil and gas industries in places like Texas and would be resistant to crubs in that industry that Democrats would implement.

    Plus they hate the new gender neutral word Latinx that the Democrats have made up for them.

    It's makes no grammatical sense and is difficult to pronounce in Spanish, they prefer Latino or Latina



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,034 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    The US is a clusterF... it's going to be a mess regardless of what happens.

    Immigrants tend to assimilate much better in the US than they do it other western democracies.

    They are more willing to learn the language, embrace citizenship etc.

    In the US you don't have the type of immigrant ghettos or the ghettoised youths you have in places like France and Belgium that blow up with riots every few years.

    Yes you have ghettos in the US, but for different reasons.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 22,303 CMod ✭✭✭✭Pawwed Rig


    Spanish being a heavily gendered language is also an issue. There is actually a feminine and masculine version for the word non binary which I am sure annoys lots of people

    No binaria(feminine)
    No binario(masculine)
    




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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,034 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Yes that's it, masculine and feminine nouns already part of the language.

    Sorry for going off topic.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Oh, I agree with you. The problems in the US are unique to the US. Besides the composition of immigration tends to be very different between Europe and the US... along with the expectations that the migrants have on arrival. There's also been a shift in attitudes between the migrants of the past, and those of the last two decades or so. As for integration/Assimilation, some States are better than others.

    However, the US is still very much a melting pot of cultures and competing interests, along with a wide range of discriminatory practices (while being a major supporter of the social science malarkey). So.. yeah, I'd still consider it to be a clusterF.



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Now, look at Europe. From (https://www.statista.com/statistics/986392/co2-emissions-per-cap-by-country-eu/)


    EU emissions are falling

    Annual carbon dioxide emissions in the EU fell to their lowest level for more than 50 years in 2019. In that year, some 3.3 billion metric tons of CO2 was produced. This was a significant reduction when compared to the 4.7 billion metric tons of CO2 produced in 1979. Since this peak volume, emissions have mostly been falling each year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,020 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Too little, too late. Supposedly to avoid just the climate catastrophe (no mention of food, water, ...), humans need to produce less than 2 tons CO2 per annum.


    In the EU, it's 6.7 tonnes (2019 data). In the US, it's something like 16. Worldwide average is 4, fortunately the populous world produces less CO2 (for now.)

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/12/want-to-fight-climate-change-have-fewer-children

    and

    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?view=map



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,020 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Fewer people may positively impact water quality. More people, no. https://lisbdnet.com/how-does-population-growth-negatively-impact-water-quality/



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,182 ✭✭✭Thinkingaboutit


    Overpopulation is largely a myth. The earth can provide for all. If even the PRC has largely abandoned One Child, the overpopulation scaremongerers should take note. Population control efforts have without exception resulted in severely distorted demographics, usually a shortage of females. The crossings of the Med is more about people smuggling for profit. Various rad lefties with boats pose as saviours, so too do newly minted wokies like RNLI, who pick up the boats of people smugglers who follow a protocol of disabling their boats and getting ferried in comfort to their destination. These supposed rescuers make a pile of money. Anyhow, no overpopulation. There's no such thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,020 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    This is putting fingers in your ears and shouting 'it's not happening.' It is.

    More people == hotter planet == hungrier people. Crossing of the Med is a red herring is all, however people move around, they're still on the planet, they don't have enough food, water or opportunity.


    But, hey, have more childers. They'll be fine. </sarcasm>



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    there’s not much difference between doomsayers and people who believe climate change is all a scam. Neither want solutions. Of course it’s possible to go below 2 tonnes, we’ve increased the population and the economy and reduced carbon in Europe. Just continue doing that. France is already at 5 tons, that is 3 times less than the US, for the same standard of living your claim that there’s no decoupling of carbon and population is therefore false

    in any case, and back to the thread title, the developed nations of the world are depopulating, so that will also help with carbon but not the economies



  • Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The developed nations are either depopulating, or they will depopulate into a few decades. This depopulation is pretty much exponential. Korea for instance will have quarter the population in two generations.

    Some developing nations, mostly sub Saharan Africa have high birth rates but that is in areas that aren’t carbon intensive yet. I don’t think the west is in a position to lecture them.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,020 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    There's no decoupling. More people = more carbon, on a global basis. And more people means less food, less good water, less arable land. Great that the EU's reduced it's carbon output, now, in the same time, what's happened worldwide? More people, more carbon. Hasn't part of the EU savings been due to offloading production of wood needed for biofuel to the US south (so, raising CO2 emissions there?) It doesn't matter where the CO2's emitted.

    If by some miracle, the 2 tonnes per person goal can be reached, how long before it reverses the impact overpopulation and high CO2 emissions have had? It really is fatuous to think we can bicycle our way out of the current crisis, without a concerted effort to reduce population.



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