Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings

astrofool · 16-12-2021 12:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118328693#Comment_118328693

I think you completely misunderstood.

We can have X number of infections of the vaccinated for every 1 infection of the unvaccinated to maintain the existing hospitalisation ratio, if more unvaccinated get infected (i.e. are in more locations where chances of transmission are high) than the number of unvaccinated in hospital goes up relative to the vaccinated.

Where X is that ratio, whether it's 3, 10, 12, 16 or whatever.

In the first thread, it was simplified as much as it could be to try and prevent confusion and using the average hospitalisation ratio for the last few months (50/50) and vaccination ratio (92/8 which is actually 11.5, but it's actually closer to 94/6 now, so 15.6).

Penfailed · 16-12-2021 12:27AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118327665#Comment_118327665

...but he can go unvaccinated when accompanied by an adult. It's a complete nonsense. Why are you trying to defend it?

Pigeon Chaser · 16-12-2021 12:39AM

There better be leaks tomorrow.

I don't want to have to wit until Friday for the updated restrictions.

Shilock · 16-12-2021 12:56AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118328648#Comment_118328648

I know it's hard on people who are sniffly or chesty expecting them to get tested regularly. Imagine having to stick that thing up your nose twice a week. And you having to isolate until you get a result, absolutely crazy . Actually there should be something put in place for those situations, and I don't believe the back of the nose almost scratching your brain is doing much good either. If it's spread by aerosol there should be enough in saliva. I could be wrong but subjecting kid's to that every week is bound to be good for the long-term

Timmy O Toole · 16-12-2021 01:41AM

That's one thing I need never understood , one of the most transmissible virus' yet they have to swap your brain to detect it. Could you not just use saliva or cough on to something

Dr Fred · 16-12-2021 01:48AM

We should be in a level 5 lockdown given what’s coming down the tracks. This film-flam and twadle will be regretted some time very soon

Stormyteacup · 16-12-2021 01:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118328740#Comment_118328740

So now infections of the unvaccinated (13%) with hospitalisations of the unvaccinated (20%) lead you to conclude someone unvaccinated is 12 times more likely to be hospitalised?

Confused by your reference to the first thread that was established long before vaccines were conceived.

User1998 · 16-12-2021 01:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329099#Comment_118329099

Whats coming down the tracks?

Dr Fred · 16-12-2021 01:56AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329108#Comment_118329108

Don’t be so flaccid. You know quite well what horrors they medical services will be up against

User1998 · 16-12-2021 02:02AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329117#Comment_118329117

Like they are every year?

astrofool · 16-12-2021 02:11AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329107#Comment_118329107

You're still making no sense, the journal article doesn't properly give the figures to draw any conclusions, if you have the actual figures, do post them. From the HSE reports, the numbers hospitalised and in ICU was about 50/50, this will no doubt change over time for a variety of reasons, and that 12x will change accordingly. (seems to be higher than 12x for ICU and lower for hospitalisation, but better numbers would help here). 12x is not set in stone but matches the last verified numbers from the reports.

Other less vaccinated countries are seeing a higher ratio than Ireland does.

astrofool · 16-12-2021 02:12AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329084#Comment_118329084

Alot on here seem to be suffering from excess brain swapping!

Snooker Loopy · 16-12-2021 02:15AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329099#Comment_118329099

100%. To slow it down, we have no hope of stopping it.

Gauteng's hospitalisations are rocketing. And we are not starting from almost zero like they did, we're starting from a very bad place in terms of hospitalisations and ICU.

We are in deep winter, they are in summer.

Huge red warning lights should be flashing everywhere.

https://twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1471273037655912450

Micky 32 · 16-12-2021 02:21AM

According to Micheal Martin : “Taoiseach Micheál Martin has indicated that there won’t be further Covid restrictions on people travelling home for Christmas.”

Good news for familes this xmas.

JoChervil · 16-12-2021 02:29AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118328387#Comment_118328387

So compare, what is on Spanish TV site:

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20211215/mapa-del-coronavirus-espana/2004681.shtml#restricciones

Some graphs from it

Cases:

Hospitals, ICU and deaths:

charlie14 · 16-12-2021 03:18AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329107#Comment_118329107

Using a base of 100. If 8% unvaccinated is 46 people then 100% would be 575 people. On the same basis if 92% vaccinated is 54 people then 100% would be 59 people.

Roughly a ratio of 10 : 1 unvaccinated to vaccinated

choronzonix · 16-12-2021 07:55AM

The whole idea of a 'relaxation of restrictions' may seem pretty hilarious right now, but one thing we can all be certain of - covid certs are here for the foreseeable:

lawred2 · 16-12-2021 08:30AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329271#Comment_118329271

I am shocked

Floppybits · 16-12-2021 08:32AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329271#Comment_118329271

Always the way in this country, very quick to introduce temporary measures but very very slow to remove them. We will probably have covid certs forever more like the USC.

M_Murphy57 · 16-12-2021 08:32AM

Nphets optimistic scenario is we hit "the same" level of hospitalizations as last Christmas.

Last year we had no vaccines, no boosters and we let everyone travelling for Christmas fly home without any tests, nevermind a test and vaccine.

And they think it's reasonable to suggest there will be no difference in the post Christmas outcome this year?

We all know MM will accept this boll*x without question though , hospitality will get another twist of the vice, and when it inevitably doesn't transpire it'll be because "restrictions work"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/nphet-to-discuss-restrictions-on-large-sporting-events-and-social-gatherings-1.4756459

redlad12 · 16-12-2021 08:39AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118327693#Comment_118327693

And are people on this thread happy with that approach? I hate these restrictions and disagree with basically all of them. But if you have symptoms and don't get tested because you want to have a normal Christmas you are truly a cnut.

facehugger99 · 16-12-2021 08:59AM

Health Minister Stephen Donnelly warned last night it was "entirely possible", due to the increased transmissibility of the Omicron variant, that the number of Covid-19 infections, and hospitalisations, could exceed the spike last January.

Don't worry though lads, the Government and NPHET are here to save us from the oncoming apocalypse.

.Sad to think there are still plenty of people out there buying this shite.

Always reminds me of the quote from Wheel of Time on how best to control people -

"Loose a lion - a rabid lion - in the streets. And when panic grips the people, once it has turned their bowels to water, calmly tell them you will deal with it. Then you kill it, and order them to hang the carcass up where everyone can see. Before they have time to think, you give another order, and it will be obeyed. And if you continue to give orders, they will continue to obey, for you will be the one who saved them, and who better to lead?"

Floppybits · 16-12-2021 09:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329362#Comment_118329362

The fear factor being ramped up now followed by those scared folks screaming for a lockdown and come January there will be a lockdown till May. Rinse and repeat.

Ozvaldo · 16-12-2021 09:08AM

Ireland is mutley from dastardly and mutley always looking for a medal in kudos from the lads in europe regarding covid

good dog

Marty Bird · 16-12-2021 09:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329362#Comment_118329362

The NPHET are a career politicians wet dream no matter what bad decisions are made they will always use the line, we followed public health advice and will have zero accountability

User1998 · 16-12-2021 09:43AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329328#Comment_118329328

If everyone at the dinner table is okay with you having a runny nose then whats the problem? Would you have previously missed out on Christmas because of the sniffles? I doubt it very much

bear1 · 16-12-2021 09:50AM

Why are they releasing what their plans are before the government again?

I mean sweet jaysus could we ask more for a more gobshitery team, government and nphet. And they'll go down in history for the majority as having acted bravely.

is_that_so · 16-12-2021 09:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329317#Comment_118329317

At least they are not "grim" again. There is such a predictability to this cycle. NPHET produce a new ( questionable) model, politicians become alarmed and agree to advice and on we go. Even so the advice this time, apart from maybe clubbing hospitality again looks more like be very very careful and stay away from each other. The reality is we've been at over 2,000 cases a day since mid-October and 4,000 since mid-November yet hospital numbers have not gone out of control.

Penfailed · 16-12-2021 09:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329317#Comment_118329317

Last year we didn't have Delta or Omicron either.

Floppybits · 16-12-2021 10:05AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118329482#Comment_118329482

Hmmm I seem to remember this time last year was when delta was starting to take hold.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings