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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 24,824 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I'm not sure all these new seats are safe.

    All depends on how cleverly gerrymandered they are but there has been a massive exodus out of London going back before Covid and it has the potential to put cracks in the Home Counties blue wall



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,182 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I remember the Haughey era and Liam Lawlor etc, but the levels of Tory corruption are off the scale in comparison. We had a few bad apples, but Brexit UK has a whole orchard of them......systematic corruption and sleaze throughout the entire Tory regime, starting with 'you know who' at the top.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,090 ✭✭✭The Raging Bile Duct


    I think you're looking at the Haughey era FF with rose-tinted glasses if you think it was just a few bad apples.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,515 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    And that, effectively, is the entire reason for Brexit. The ability to 'take back control', although sold as if it was for the good of the country, was actually about giving control back to the politicians and their donors. No more of this fair and open tender process. No need to stick to rules, when rules can be changed whenever they want (recent vote on sewage release for example).

    Create an enemy to keep the people focused on 'them' and one can excuse everything on the basis that whilst it may be terrible, at least its 'our' terrible and not 'them'.

    The amount of money, time and effort wasted on Brexit, never mind the actual opportunity costs and the long term economic impacts, are staggering. Just off the top of my head haven't they spent £6bn on preparing for no deal? But there are of course plenty of other costs. The agreement with Toyota (or was in Nissan) to insulate them from any additional costs. The reduction on labour laws, workers rights etc that will be needed to compete given higher business costs.

    But beneath it all, the real reason was to give more control to the politicians. They were fed up having to go to EU and actually live by their obligations. Brexit has been the umbrella under which anything and everything could be done and excused on the basis that to raise any issue was to be a Remoaner. It scuttled the Labour party as an opposition (although they were struggling anyway) as Labour are now almost scared to even mention the word and any argument is simply batted away with the retort that Labour don't even want Brexit!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,429 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Actually, they may be building enough internal opposition within the party to the corruption and other mismanagement to split the party to eject the ERG types. This is possible because the Tory local party members are ageing, and are not attracting younger blood. Now there was a certain amount of UKIP joiners to local parties who tried to direct the party towards that object, but they were not traditional Tory types, so maybe they will be ejected, or the original members will quit, leaving an even smaller rump. The actual number of paid up members of the party is quite small.

    Another party, like the Greens or Liberals might attract them - but hardly the Labour Party. The branding of the GE candidates will be important. Be interesting to see the way it goes.

    When PM Macmillan (of the Macmillan publishing family) was forced to resign over the Profumo scandal, he was replaced by the 13th Earl of Hume - not even a member of the HoC. You cannot get more Tory that that. How far had they to dig to get him?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,182 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Was that there that many found guilty of actual corruption? There were a few who were caught such as Ray Burke and Liam Lawlor and exposed at the tribunals.

    The level of Tory corruption is breath taking in comparison though. It seems half the parliamentary party is on the payroll of someone else and receiving big kickbacks in return for favours.



  • Registered Users Posts: 151 ✭✭Sue de Nimes


    Unfortunately, the EU demonstrated that it had zero interest in stability in NI. It is impossible to have stability in NI without having a situation that both the Republicans and Unionists can live with. Deciding to implement any sort of border between NI and the rest of the UK to "avoid a hard border between Ireland and NI" was only ever going to end in tears.

    Varadkhar decided to dangle the threat of republican violence to try and force this situation. Nobody should be surprised to see the Unionists taking inspiration from this. Enda Kenny wanted to be pragmatic and work on a solution that minimised friction between Ireland and NI. Leo weaponised the threat of violence and has now been hoist by his own petard.

    The only solution that will ensure stability is one that minimises friction between NI and Ireland and also between NI and the rest of the UK. It isn't the "responsibility of the UK to fix this". The UK made a legitimate choice to leave the EU. That was a decision solely for the UK to make. Ireland now needs to be pragmatic in seeking the best outcome for itself in this scenario. Ireland is free to act in its best interests as is the UK. The best interests of Ireland and the best interests of the EU are not the same thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,824 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    What's weird about the current problems in Westminster is they always prided themselves on a code of honour that Ireland and some other European countries don't have. We expect chancers and thieves and for some the brazenness is even championed at a local level, just look at the likes of Lowry. In the UK people caught were expected to fall on their swords but those days seem well gone now.



  • Registered Users Posts: 151 ✭✭Sue de Nimes


    Funny how this thread is 99% trying to pin all the blame on "the Brits"



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,090 ✭✭✭The Raging Bile Duct


    Not trying to be funny but this situation wouldn't have arisen without Britain leaving the EU so how is it anyone else's fault?



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    You mean the UK agreed protocol? To fix the issues based on the English Brexit...



  • Registered Users Posts: 151 ✭✭Sue de Nimes


    The UK was perfectly entitled to leave the EU. Those of us in Ireland have a choice on how we deal with that. I believe our government has handled this incredibly poorly. Ireland had a choice between being a good neighbour or a bad neighbour. Unfortunately, the government was, egged on by many, far too interested in "sticking it to the Brits".



  • Registered Users Posts: 151 ✭✭Sue de Nimes




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,090 ✭✭✭The Raging Bile Duct


    Enlighten me as to how you think we could have been a good neighbour to a country that was negotiating in bad faith with the EU, of which we are a member.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,824 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    We are being a good neighbour. An incredibly good on in fact to both NI and our many neighbours in Europe. One neighbour is up all night shouting and blocking our driveway on purpose and don't deserve any respect from us.

    Of all the parties involved no one is showing more care about the North than we are and I include a lot of the Northern parties in that group that don't have NIs best interest



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,074 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    All of this has been proven wrong. NI would have been left out in economic desolation had it not been for proposals which the UK happily agreed to and at the time claimed were brilliant.

    Your claim regarding Varadkar is completely inaccurate. Varadkar reminded people of how easy it is for violence to escalate and that border posts would likely inflame violent reactions. For this reason he said we should never go back to having these.

    As for how do we create a situation between the UK and the EU that means no borders or restrictions - this is completely down to the UK. They were in fact going to go with the backstop which would have solved this exact problem were it not for the unionsits to block them on this. If the UK wishes to put forward a solution better than the one currently in place as a result of their leaving the EU (with no plan) then they are more then welcome to do so.

    So the mess that was created as a direct result of the British leaving the EU is not the fault of the British? Who's fault is it?


    ...and nobody stopped them but to leave without a plan or even defining how they were going to leave and to just wing it was monumentally stupid and history will punish them for it. However, I'm not sure how you think the Irish government has faulted itself here. What exactly could they have done differently that would have meant that the UK's exit would not have harmed us more than it has? As for people wanting to "stick it to the Brits" - this is rubbish. We'va all laughed at the stupidity performed by the UK over the last number of years, I've not encountered anyone who was wanting to "stick it" to them!


    NI voted to remain and Scotland voted to remain. Even if the Welsh voted to remain, it wouldn't have made a difference because the English vote was the dominant steering factor in the overall result. The English voted to leave and therefore the UK had to leave*.


    * well the UK didn't have to leave as it was only an advisory referendum but they left anyhow



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,652 ✭✭✭54and56


    Don't see Varadkar hoisted anywhere, not sure what you're on about.

    The UK voted to leave the EU as was their right. Choosing to do so ruptured the delicate peace process in NI which was based on both the UK and RoI being in the EU i.e. single market and customs union, common standards, invisible border etc etc

    Brexit destabilised NI and whilst the myriad of actual and proposed mitigations (back stop, sea border, unicorn technology etc) are designed to minimise that destabilisation none will return NI to the peaceful status quo which existed pre Brexit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,078 ✭✭✭salonfire


    If the border posts returned, you'd happily man them or have a member of your family man them? You'd stand on a lonely road in deepest Tyrone or Armagh and stop a van full of men for a customs check no problem?

    After all, you seem to suggest the threat of violence does not exist. Perhaps you can explain why checkpoints in the past were so often targeted?



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,824 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    If we have a hard border with NI and I mean a real one not like what we had before it's gonna be a lot more serious than an auld Garda in a box on the side of the road. I know the population is vastly bigger but have you seen the Polish crossings.



  • Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭Fanofconnacht


    If the true cost of net Zero was calculated for any country they would vote against it not just UK.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭Fanofconnacht


    Placate the UK !!!! If the EU keep doing this UK will just keep comimg back for more. EU should give UK a week to accept its latest offer, if rejected then let UK decide what it wants to do. If Art 16 then retaliate \ take legal actions allowed by Agreement. We are in the EU now and have to take the good with the bad. In some ways we are now more powerful than UK as we are the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,824 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Well the true cost of the alternative is fiery or watery death so I think you are wrong.

    His actions may turn out to be different but when you have the likes of Johnson promising green measures you know that the calculation has been done that the majority are behind climate action



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,787 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Just wanted to ask. Is this comedy hour ?

    The reason I ask that in a serious manner is all of the actually hilarous 'points' you just made have been positively thrashed in the 5 years this thread has been running.

    I won't be debating on old ground as I've run out of comedic retorts to baseless claims such as the quote above ..



  • Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭Fanofconnacht


    Triggering Art 16 is a formal process. Side triggering has to officially write to other side and tell them. Ursula never got near writing a letter but the optics were not good from a PR perspective.



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Absolute nonsense narrative that the right-wing press has been pusing in the UK for the last few years. These people don't know the first thing about Irish or Northern Irish politics (and nor do they care).

    Where did you hear this nonsense I wonder?



  • Registered Users Posts: 757 ✭✭✭generic_throwaway


    Quite correct - it's the 'English and Welsh Brexit'. I'll give you that one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,271 ✭✭✭fash


    The only situation that both nationalists & unionists could live with was EU membership. How do you propose that the EU break the UK to such an extent that the UK wouldn't dare to brexit?

    As regards Mr VaradakaraforeignnameIcan'tspell, where did he dangle republican violence? Please point out a single incident -& please indicate where he deviated from Kenny or any other Irish politician or political party?

    What Ireland must do is bring the UK to heel. The UK needs to learn its place - & learn that it must do as instructed by more powerful states - such as Ireland - or the Faroe islands.

    Ensuring that the UK learns its place in the most painful way possible is in Ireland's interest -I agree that the Ireland needs to do more to convince the EU of this.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,079 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Interesting thread on the discussions between Frost and Sefcovic this week, I like this quote:

    Writer is a 'political risk analyst' and occasionally contributes to the Guardian. He's been talking with EU officials, who among other thing are highlighting what the EU can do now should the UK invoke Article 16. Basically, invoking article 16 doesn't mean "Suspend the protocol! Everything's over!" It's more, "O.K. there's an emergency and we need to fix it." And in the meanwhile, the EU could, for example, ban any UK fishing in EU waters.

    As one senior official says: "In order to avoid escalation, you have to demonstrate escalation dominance" 


    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1457969885020139522.html



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,834 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    That is some twisting of the facts. The EU and Ireland have tried their best to negotiate Brexit with the UK so there would be smallest possible impacts on NI but current UK govt. is not interested in that.

    No politicians on UK or EU or Irish sides made any "threats of violence" incl. Leo "Varadkhar" (sp). It is a fact that Brexit destabilises NI politically (this has already happened as predicted), which could lead to violence again given its history, and many people pointed this out. Giving a personal opinion, serious violence may be unlikely over these issues however it comes out in the end. Unionist political leaders have been banging the drums hard, directly calling on people to come out and protest for months over the NI Protocol, but actual level of anger about it, let alone willingness to commit acts of violence (absent some street protests by teenagers, graffiti and vandalism) seems low.

    I don't recall any major difference between the 2 (3 now) Irish leaders in how they approached Brexit over last few years or what they have wanted to get for Ireland/NI out of the EU/UK Brexit negotiations. There is perhaps a difference of tone. Varadkar is a straight speaker and sometimes makes remarks off the cuff IMO, which has gotten him into alot of trouble domestically and he does the same on all subjects incl. foreign affairs. It seems to have made him a hate figure for Brexiters/Ulster Unionists. That is very funny in a way, given the undiplomatic comments the current UK PM is known (& loved) for.

    On solutions there is none which is perfect here given UKs hard Brexit. Someone in NI is going to be disappointed. I mean even your "solution" of "Ireland being pragmatic" (I think that is probably some nice code for distancing ourselves from the EU, kowtowing to the UK govt. or the "Will of the British People" if you prefer that formulation) may not make Nationalists in NI very happy, even if might keep trade between NI-Ireland flowing freely and the border without customs. It is certainly not going to make people in this country happy. (Irish) people will see it for what it is at root really. As above bowing down to the UK, now run by a faction who don't like us much or wish us well + the Irish govt. and people doing things they don't want to (compromising on EU membership for sake of NI). Noone will think that is actually in Ireland's "best interests".



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  • Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭Fanofconnacht


    The best interest of UK and the best interest of NI are not the same thing either. I expect that those burning buses in Belfast as not loyalist export business owners or even loyalist workers in these businesses but rather unemployed loyalist yobs and crooks. Good article in IT today on silent loyalist majority in favour of NIP.



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