Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

BluePlanet

It's the young vote that the Brexiteers will need, and they clearly aren't having it. What will it look like a decade from now if the UK economy doesn't rocket? (which nobody is predicting).

• Just over three-quarters (77%) of those aged 18-34 would vote to re-join, compared to two in five 55+ (39%)

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118156691#Comment_118156691

Or will all those symbols become so associated with Brexit and its delusions that jettisoning them is part of a new start?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118156908#Comment_118156908

Na British people in general are weird about them. Royal family is the same even among rational young liberal voting remainers

swampgas

Has Frost blinked? Looks like it - possibly because of recent US pressure?

"EU welcomes ‘change in tone’ from UK at Northern Ireland Brexit talks"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/12/eu-welcomes-change-in-tone-from-uk-at-northern-ireland-brexit-talks

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118156929#Comment_118156929

That's the thing, how will they feel about Charley?

Herself is the last link between when Britain had remnants of its empire and now. You know the way siblings will keep the peace when while a patriarch or matriarch is still alive, but once that common bond passes things can fall apart as suppressed feelings find release.

I reckon the whole British establishment that's been hiding behind her skirts will find themselves extremely exposed in the aftermath.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118156997#Comment_118156997

Rumoured on social media during the week that the US had told the Brexiteers off in no uncertain terms and warned them there would be dire consequences if they dared trigger A16.

This is actually a serious dilemma for Frosty. How can he sell a climbdown as a 'win' to the Brexit disciples if the EU haven't budged an inch this week? He kept repeating that the ECJ has to go for example.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118156997#Comment_118156997

I'll be honest, for the longest while I found the courting of Irish-Americans' idealised, romantic yearning for their roots a little hokey and pointless. Especially our government's yearly jaunt to the US around St Patrick's Day. But the NI Protocol is exactly where all those indulgences have paid off: a solid bloc in American politics having involved itself, and continue to bat for, pro-Irish positions. The English like to talk of "Special Relationship", but functionally, is our own more quantifiable?

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157084#Comment_118157084

Even if you were remove to the Irish angle the basic business bottom line would favour EU interests over an ex member who blew it.

Plus if there's one thing that really rattles americans is seeing a country they once thought of as developed having fuel distribution problems in the streets. Gasoline in their blood so seeing streets fights break out over gas makes think of some third world hell hole they'd rather avoid.

BluePlanet

Business experts have told the House of Lords European Affairs Committee that Brexit started to affect UK trade as early as the 2015 General Election – five years before Britain withdrew from the European Union

The key points are:

• Brexit began to affect UK exports earlier than most other studies suggested: starting around the 2015 general election
• Anticipation of Brexit reduced exports to the EU countries by 25% already by 2018, compared to what we would otherwise have expected. This is a much larger effect than the 15% long-run effect which the Office For Budgetary Responsibility is currently assuming (2), which underlies the recent Budget
• Anxiety about the future competitiveness of the UK also reduced exports to non-EU  countries by about 15%. This is because UK exporters are mostly dependent upon EU supply chains

https://www.lboro.ac.uk/news-events/news/2021/november/loughborough-expert-evidence-house-of-lords-brexit/

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157375#Comment_118157375

I'd say they'll be fine one way or another. The big boys, I mean. The smaller ones just in the black will be wiped out but the larger ones will go online only or will just endure the costs.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155977#Comment_118155977

Well certainly if you were an economist you would know that you could model a comparative UK economy by modelling the characteristics of similar economies- or weighted versions of other economies depending on how similar they were to the UK economy to get a fairly robust "but for" comparison.

20silkcut

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157084#Comment_118157084

Having been in America several times during st Patrick’s day festivities opened my eyes to the deep connection between Ireland and the USA. And it’s not anything cheesy or hokey like it is viewed by some over here. In a country where there are multitude immigrant identities belonging to something is crucially important. Being Irish American is as good as being Italian American or Jewish American etc. American politics is built on such identities.

It stands to reason as there was far more recent immigration from Ireland to the USA than there was from Britain. British migration to America was more dispersed both geographically and chronologically where as the Irish concentrated in large communities in the big cities of the East coast from the 1850’s to the 1920’s and had far more impact and political clout.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157557#Comment_118157557

Yup have looked at that and there really isn't anything particularly alarming in current UK figures. Yes showing some stresses but in our economics community lots of chatter and discussion about great care currently required due to Covid. It is quite simply not possible to directly match UK economic dips to Brexit in the middle of the massive economic issues being caused globally by Covid.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157639#Comment_118157639

Yes it is possible very possible. It has already been shown earlier today on this thread

Professor Moriarty

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157639#Comment_118157639

Leaving aside the negative impact of Brexit to date, going forward, Brexit will continue have a very significant impact on the UK economy. Much worse than Covid. From the BBC 27th October:

"The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be worse in the long run compared to the coronavirus pandemic, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility has said.

Richard Hughes said leaving the EU would reduce the UK's potential GDP by about 4% in the long term.

He said forecasts showed the pandemic would reduce GDP "by a further 2%".

"In the long term it is the case that Brexit has a bigger impact than the pandemic", he told the BBC.

His comments come after the OBR said the cost of living could rise at its fastest rate for 30 years, with suggestions inflation could hit almost 5%."

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155716#Comment_118155716

Even JRM thinks you're wrong.

Beano villain incarnate Jacob Rees-Mogg has offered an optimistic prediction of how long we might have to wait see see the benefits of Brexit: 50 years. ... Speaking to Krishnan Guru-Murthy on Channel 4 News

15/20 years is a handy timescale. It's kicking the can so far that all the major players will be safely retired or dead by then.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157730#Comment_118157730

The effects of Brexit were predicted long ago. That 4% falls right in the middle when you include the dynamic effects.

From May 2014

What would be the economic effects of the UK leaving the European Union on living standards of British people? We focus on the effects of trade on welfare net of lower fiscal transfers to the EU. We use a standard quantitative static general equilibrium trade model with multiple sectors, countries and intermediates, as in Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2013). Static losses range between 1.13% and 3.09% of GDP, depending on the assumptions used in our counterfac-tual scenarios. Including dynamic effects could more than double such losses.

_Puma_

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1459257740866555919?t=5ZHbttw45MYUwXL7D8l2OQ&s=19

If this is really the extent of their stragedy on the NI protocol the brexit acolytes are doomed. Good aul Dom is making sure the bridges are well and truly burned

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157639#Comment_118157639

Ya see every country was impacted by Covid. Every country took a dip and now most are back near pre pandemic levels, but the UK aren't.

There was also an analysis done before of people on the same equivalent wage in Ireland and the UK some years ago, and how that monetary value has diverged between both due to Sterling. I can't find the link (someone please help) but the result was you were much better off in Ireland.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118158104#Comment_118158104

It's always this determination the EU will crumble any day now with these guys: Brexit; the 2008 crash; the Euro, and so on. There's always something that for real this time, the EU is going to dissolve with the UK standing firm. It's like they watched Children of Men and took all the wrong conclusions about the UK's position.

I'm sure eventually they might be right, but by then it may not matter who was "right" cos we'd probably be on the eve of another continental war.

Strazdas

Interestingly, the Express has published the poll that shows a majority of British people would vote to rejoin the EU and given it prominence. The Brexit disciples / devotees are predictably in meltdown in the comments, but it's intriguing to see really bad news stories about Brexit starting to push through, even in the right wing press.

murphaph

I think Brexit will be reversed in practice (SM & CU rejoined) in the next decade. Eventually the UK is going to rejoin the EU.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118158585#Comment_118158585

I wouldn't rule it out for a moment - but Scotland and NI might have already left the UK within that timeframe.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118158585#Comment_118158585

I think you mean they are going to apply to rejoin the EU. Whether they can rejoin might be another matter. The EU is on a journey, and might be unwilling to take passengers.

murphaph

Yeah I think the UK (or whatever is left of it) will apply to rejoin the EU in my lifetime and I think it will be readmitted. I suspect they will have abandoned FPTP before then.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118157639#Comment_118157639

It's not a question of whether it's "alarming" (are you attempting to change the point because you can't answer it), it's a question of whether it can be reasonably done. You said it wasn't. It is.

For example the OBR relies on John Springford's model:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1455938725049929730?s=20

murphaph

Lol @ "lets look at Brexit in 20 years". That's a pathetic argument. If anyone on the leave side had suggested people would need to endure economic hardship for two decades before brexit might (for some unknown reason) later become a roaring success, they'd have lost millions of voters to remain.

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118158680#Comment_118158680

hmmmm just ignore an application from one of the largest economies on the planet and in a way that would eliminate all these bureaucratic headaches

they'd engage willingly alright

led by ourselves no doubt

lawred2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118158104#Comment_118158104

‘No no no Frosty, **** this, what happens with a deal?’ And Frost looked up from his paper and said, ‘PM, this is what happens with a deal, that’s what leaving the Customs Union means.’ The PM’s face was priceless. He sat back in his chair and looked around the room with appalled disbelief and shook his head. Horrified officials’ phones pinged around the Cabinet table. One very senior official texted me, ‘Now I realise how you managed to get Brexit done 

That can't be real?

McGiver

Fundamentally, unless the UK folds the EU will have to decide between two paths: A) accept Ireland is messy and focus elsewhere because peace and terrorism mean you can’t treat this border like other Single Market borders, B) insist on a border between the island of Ireland and the Single Market. I think they’ll pick A but if they prefer B, we should make sure they get the blame not us.

Cummings is delusional.

B) is the type of a nonsense peddled by Irexiters (or rather Tories infiltrators) on this board and WILL NEVER EVER HAPPEN. It would essentially collapse the EU.

A) is very unlikely.