Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

Fanofconnacht

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118152601#Comment_118152601

The fact that Johnson appears supportive of green agenda should greatly concern the green lobby. He was also very supportive of NIP and signed the leaving agreement. Who knows what he will do next year. When the sh1t hits the fan in UK in next few years watch how committments will be delayed \ not delivered.

storker

@Sue de Nimes "The UK was perfectly entitled to leave the EU."

Indeed it was. And everyone else is entitled to identify the manner in which it was done as the cause of the resulting mess. That manner was determined by the UK and nobody else.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118152192#Comment_118152192

Good post, a refreshing break from the norm on here.....

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118152657#Comment_118152657

Wales voted for Brexit by a narrow margin , 52%.

It's still an English Brexit because 21% of the population of Wales were born in England

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118154432#Comment_118154432

In the mainly Welsh speaking areas there was a clear majority against Brexit. As this article contends the narrow pro brexit vote in Wales was largely due to English retirees and migrants who make up about a fifth of the population now in Wales.

Wealthy English blow-ins ‘swung Welsh Brexit vote’ | News | The Sunday Times (thetimes.co.uk)

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118154440#Comment_118154440

Interesting point about Wales is that there is no Welsh press to speak of and they get all their news and opinions from the English newspapers - not a surprise that a narrow majority would have fallen for the lies and propaganda in 2016.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118154363#Comment_118154363

It is a rehash of the old, tired and thoroughly debunked arguments already talked about.

Every so often they get repeated, as if new, and people get all excited that finally the 'truth' is out.

Stability in NI? Its the EU that wants things to stay as they were in NI, the UK wants to change. You have a strange view of the meaning of stability when you take the view those those looking to keep things the same are the problem. The peace process was working, both sides were relatively content. Then the UK decided that one side needed to loose out. They 1st went all in with the Unionists, until they went in the completely opposite direction.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Let's get back to current events please. There's no need to analyse the result or go over events from half a decade ago. Thanks.

The Raging Bile Duct

Yesterday's GDP report from the UK shows growth is starting to slow down and is still 2.1% below its pre-Covid level.

Growth slowdown leaves UK as G7 laggard

Today’s GDP report shows that the UK economy is lagging behind G7 rivals in recovering from the pandemic.

On a quarterly basis, the UK economy is still 2.1% below its pre-crisis level in Q4 2019 , after growth slowed to 1.3% in July-September.

In contrast, France is only 0.1% below its pre-pandemic level of output. The US economy is already larger, after massive government spending and central bank stimulus packages boosted growth above its levels before Covid-19.

Germany’s economy (which has been hit by supply chain bottlenecks too), is 1.1% below its pre-crisis level. Spain (not a G7 member) is still 6.6% smaller, after its tourism sector was badly hurt by lockdowns and travel restrictions.

The UK has been forecast to record the fastest growth in the G7 this year (as Rishi Sunak flagged earlier), but importantly, that follows the worst downturn in 2020 (when UK GDP contracted almost 10%).

This chart from the ONS shows how the UK’s growth in Q3 lagged behind European neighbours (after outpacing them in Q2):

https://twitter.com/samueltombs/status/1458698789938679810?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1458698789938679810%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fbusiness%2Flive%2F2021%2Fnov%2F11%2Fuk-gdp-growth-economy-q3-september-services-manufacturing-ftse-sterling-business-live%3FfilterKeyEvents%3Dfalsepage%3Dwith3Ablock-618ceec38f08b698cb94e64d

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2021/nov/11/uk-gdp-growth-economy-q3-september-services-manufacturing-ftse-sterling-business-live?page=with:block-618ceec38f08b698cb94e64d&filterKeyEvents=false#liveblog-navigation

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118154613#Comment_118154613

Posts deleted.

ancapailldorcha

Part of the problem is the fact that the coalition government imposed drastic austerity measures which seem to have been only harmful to huge chunks of the population. It also helped the top 1% get quite a bit richer so it helped foment division and resentment so that when the same man decided to gamble the UK's future on a third referendum, he wasn't trusted at all.

Thing is, if you'd have called WMD's, promises to not raise tuition fees and promises not to reorganise the NHS and reduce income tax credits fake news, you wouldn't have been wrong.

ujjjjjjjjj

Honestly think you need to look back at Brexit in about 15/20 years time before you can make a Pro v Con discussion on it for British people. Time will tell but selectively looking at economic indicators and figures now is pretty pointless as Brexit was always going to create some temporary and perhaps permanent issues. Economic benefits will take longer to come to the surface. Different countries economic positions have also been affected by Covid in different ways as most of these reports outline and inside the EU there are dramatic differences and this continues unabated so it is hard to know even if the UK had never thought of Brexit what state their figures would be in post Covid. Reality is we don't know.

swampgas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155716#Comment_118155716

That's a risible position to take. And it's a very old attempt at deflection from the impact of Brexit. Regardless of what the state of the UK is in 20 years, the people have to live in the here and now, and frankly, that's not working out very well, is it.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155716#Comment_118155716

What a crock of digested waste.

So because Brexit is turning out exactly like the experts who were told to shut up for being too experty we now have to have a 20 year moratorium on calling it out for the disaster it is

BluePlanet

@Sue de Nimes 

Do you believe that Varadkar was wrong, that Republic paramilitaries would NOT commit violence against border infrastructure?

ujjjjjjjjj

Considering the major change leaving a trading bloc like the EU really are the economic figures particularly bad ? I am not seeing anything particularly remarkable or indicative either way in UK GDP or general economic indicators.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155800#Comment_118155800

The UK growth rate for the last quarter is half that of the EU.

In the context of the UK coming out of Covid-related restrictions sooner than most, if not all, EU member states, which are clearly outpacing it in terms of economic recovery. Only Spain still trails the UK in terms of recovery to pre-Covid levels of economic activity.

Your comment reminds me of some Brexiters’ commentary on recent BoE messaging (that the Brexit hit to the UK economy of circa.4% of GDP was going to track economists’ predictions of 5 years ago) as ‘piddling’. They clearly don’t have the first understanding, of what that (apparently) small percentage represents on the ground for Joe Average in Sheffield or Banbury.

<‘this is fine’ burning building meme>

The figures are not Mad Max-bad, they were never going to be. But they track the ‘Project Fear’ forecasts of old, under which the British economic growth is going to remain much subdued relative to that of EU member states, with an ever-widening gap, and to what that growth could have been if the UK hadn’t Brexited.

(hint: this is the point at which the argument flips to ‘Brexit was about sovereignty, not the economy’ 😙)

swampgas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155800#Comment_118155800

Some of the indicators of impact to the economy are being tracked by the Yorkshire Byline Times. Feel free to have a look.

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/regular-features/the-davis-downside-dossier-2/

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/regular-features/the-digby-jones-index-2/

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/regular-features/the-brexit-benefit-myths/

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/regular-features/the-digby-jones-index-2/

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155873#Comment_118155873

Like I said some substantial economic issues were inevitable and would be guaranteed short term. Look back in 15/20 years and you get a decent perspective on it and history can judge the economic side of Brexit.

But sure by all means look at it now, is it of interest, yes sure but nothing I am seeing surprises me and to be honest I have been surprised at how well the British economy has seemingly coped with Brexit to date. Covid is a giant muddle though on figures so it could be aiding or masking issues or exaggerating them too.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155800#Comment_118155800

Define particularly. Otherwise you're just doing 'proof by blatant assertion.'

UK GDP per capita (2020), 40,284 is worse than:

Pre-2008: 50,444

Pre-Brexit referendum (2015): 47,452

Pre-pandemic (2019): 42,354

General economic indicator of a drop in per-capita GDP of 20% since 2007 is pretty damning of the economic condition of the UK. A big chunk of the drop since the Brexit referendum. GNP (so excluding FDI) is even worse.

ujjjjjjjjj

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155920#Comment_118155920

Looks unremarkable, pre pandemic 42k and mid pandemic it's 40k. To be expected.

Look the problem you or anyone has is Covid. You nor anyone can separate out Covid or Brexit impact on general indicators like this. Sure it is a bit of both but the ratio, who knows.....

You can argue that Covid arrived at a very convenient time for Brexiteers and sure I get that argument but all it says to me as a historian and economist is to have anything concrete we have to wait and look back. Doesn't mean we can all have a bit of fun in the meantime picking out figures but you could choose to do the same in many countries globally now as economic figures are all over the place atm.

swampgas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155977#Comment_118155977

As an economist and historian you can do far more than wait 20 years to see what happened - you can use some inductive reasoning, and look at the changes that Brexit has brought to the UKs trading relationships, and predict what outcomes might seem more likely than others. Otherwise it's just a disingenuous hand-waving exercise, suggesting that the obvious problems being caused by Brexit can be ignored until a few decades have gone by. Sorry, but that's getting into Tory gaslighting territory.

storker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155716#Comment_118155716

But the claim was never made that Brexit was going to be a 15-20 year project. It was going to be an instant success, retaining all the benefits of the single market without all that bothersome European interference. It was going to be followed by "the easiest trade deal ever" with the EU with the UK free to subsequently rack up more trade deals all over the world. This change to "ah well it's a long term project" looks suspiciously like a new form of spin attempting to disguise Brexit's abject failure.

The Raging Bile Duct

Don't dump images here please.

breezy1985

This whole 20 years thing is because the Tories know that by then so much will have happened that it will be harder to pin things on Brexit.

All they need is a Labour government or an Indyref 2 to blame things on and get them off the hook

pixelburp

Kinda hard to not snort at the "20 years" rationale, when there are SMEs right now struggling directly because Brexit crippling SM/CU access hitherto vital to business in an interconnected worled. There has been no lack of businesses willing to talk about how Brexit has directly resulted in a loss of business at best, closure at worst. And what if in 20 years the UK returns to the EU, humbled and desperate? Christ aliens could have landed for all the logic or point in discussing "20 years" as anything other than an attempted handwave away of issues in the here and now.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118155977#Comment_118155977

There are several signs that the UK economy has been affected negatively and directly attributable to Brexit. Not only that, there are environmental indicators, there are social indicators, there are political and judicual indicators showing that by leaving the EU, the UK has changed.

The Tories led by both Johnson and Truss are rejoicing in their marvellous trade deals that apparently have a total net monetary benefit to each British person of £0.50 per year. Not really worth all the effort, was it?

Gone are many of the rulebooks that the UK had been following. Corruption in and around many of the Tories is so blatant. Raw sewage is pouring into rivers. The agriculture and fishing industries are badly affected. And they've only just started.

Also, there is the reputational damage. Fine, had the UK left with or without a deal, that wiuld have been manageable. However, as the last year has shown, the reputational damage to the UK from its childish behaviour towards its neighbours within the EU will long be remembered. It used to be the case that the Irish alone knew not to put too much trust in the British. Now everyone has good reason not to.

Everything that has happened over the last five or six years will take multiples of that to recover from. Plus, the worst part of all of it is that there still is no sign of an actual plan on how the Uk will improve.

BluePlanet

Just wait until the public start demanding a referendum to re-join.

https://comresglobal.com/polls/eu-referendum-polling-12th-november-2021/

Though i'm thinking the EU should reject.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118156630#Comment_118156630

As hilarious as it would be those numbers will swing fast when mentions of inches and sterling start to pop up

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118156630#Comment_118156630

If the UK has demonstrated anything across the last 6 years, it is the capacity of its media to spur headline-driven political and governmental courses of action devoid of any perceptible fact or risk assessments.

On that basis alone, and until and unless the UK can demonstrably prove that it has sweeped before its door to the point of sterility, wherein influences pushing the British media and courses of action at the @ss have been, if not eradicated, then at least muted to near-silence, and durably so, then it’s a safe bet that the EU27 would attach so many strings to the UK rejoining, as to make the accession unsellable to the British public.

And I’m not talking € adoption, Schengen and zero rebate here, in terms of strings. These would be dead-cert EU red lines.