Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118136993#Comment_118136993

We'll only start hearing it from Brexiters trying to eat their cake. There is zero reason for Ireland or the EU to agree to this. Even less now that when the WA/TCA were agreed. If we gave in to blackmail & reneging on treaties now, the UK would just do it again and again and again.

If it came to that, why not hand the country back to them and apologize for the bother.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137752#Comment_118137752

I do play chess

And it doesn't matter what the UK want it doesn't change the fact that you were wrong to suggest Ireland would ever agree to leave the SM by having the border between us and the rest of Europe

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137598#Comment_118137598

I get BluePlanets point (but not quite as worried about it). That solution (a "Sea Border"/NI protocol) is looking like it may be dying now. The UK doesn't want it to work, and sees benefits in wrecking it.

There's a bit of a way to go yet, but if the UK is determined on its course I have doubts the EU can force them to back down and implement the Protocol. Sure the UK can be economically punished, but perhaps they (the UK govt.) are coming to believe they can weather that. They might benefit from a "rally round the flag" effect (this time nasty EU/France/Ireland etc etc really will be "punishing" the UK quite harshly for their behaviour!). They can also just lie and spin (they are good at that) and deflect problems and blame away elsewhere in same way as they have already done somewhat successfully I'd judge (thanks to Covid pandemic) with natural consequences/effects of Brexit. An election is a long way off, Labour opposition don't look to be in any great shakes to fight one as far as I'm aware (?)

For all the Brexiter "WW3" jokes and sneers during the referendum the EU and its components like the Single Market are a highly successful peace project. I think if the UK does try to use Ireland/NI to wreck the Single Market, for other members (esp. France/Germany) its survival will take precendence over the Good Friday Agreement, NI or indeed (aspects of) Ireland's continued membership, should Irish govt. prove totally unwilling to take steps that might be required to control trade with NI.

listermint

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137752#Comment_118137752

Isn't it particularly easy to beat a player who continually bluffs... And it's incredibly bad at it ?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137869#Comment_118137869

More BS.

Irelands position in the EU is in no way under threat.

Also the no great shakes Labour are ahead in some polls now

yagan

The number one reason for attacking the NIP is to keep EU confrontation alive in the English domestic media.

With another round of supply shocks Britain is most likely to end up aligned with the single market via NI, reverting back to May's original backstop. It would be most ironic but that's the way gravity seems to be pulling.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137910#Comment_118137910

Just saying it is "BS" does not make it so unfortunately.

Our position in the EU is not under threat yet (and hopefully won't ever be), but the UK govt. appears to be going further than in the past to try and deploy NI and Ireland's links to as a way to attack and undermine the EU and get leverage. That is a stark change from the previous govt. and UK PM I think (under which most of EU Withdrawal negotiations took place). While that govt. were obviously looking for the best "deal" possible, they did at least seem to honestly want to work with the EU/Ireland and sort out something that would keep NI relatively stable and maintain status quo at the NI border. This lot, not so much. It is all about conflict.

I haven't been keeping track of what's going on with Labour or the polls in the UK lately (don't live there) but that's positive to hear.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137997#Comment_118137997

For 5 years we have been hearing about how the EU will put themselves first or sell Ireland out to make a deal.

Everything we have seen since shows this not to be true so yes what you said was BS fortunately.

If you want a more in depth answer why you are wrong it has been covered on here over and over

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138018#Comment_118138018

I remember all those old arguments, and I know that has been done to death. I don't post that much but I do read the thread.

However, I don't think you fully read or understood what I wrote. It's not a matter of someone ever "forcing" Ireland from the EU Single Market/ EU "putting itself first" etc (we are members of the EU after all). The EU won't ever be making any "deals" with post Brexit UK at Ireland's expense. That's a certainty.

No one will "sell us out" or "throw Ireland under the bus", it would be a matter of the govt. here actively making some bad decisions/choices at a crunch time. Basically putting a priority on status quo at border, or even status quo of free trade between NI/Ireland on a pedestal over everything else (incl. EU single market integrity). I think that is unlikely to happen if it ever comes to it, but am not certain (no one can be).

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138092#Comment_118138092

I think the govt would always put Single Market integrity ahead of the Irish border. Putting up a hard border against the SM would be economically disastrous and cost many people their jobs.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138092#Comment_118138092

The Irish government no matter how inept people might think they are will not ever choose the open border over the single market.

It's not an option, it's not on the table or in the minds of anyone other than those desperately disappointed that Brexit didn't create a tidal wave leading to Irexit

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138109#Comment_118138109

Yeah, I would hope so. Am just a bit of a pessimist/worrier. As have said before it is a new situation for politicians here, coping with such a hostile UK govt.

It's also been almost a generation since they've had to deal with this big stuff involving foreign affairs, decisions affecting future of NI as well as this country etc. (probably the much maligned Bertie is the last one with that experience?).

farmerval

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137997#Comment_118137997

I think there are several things here that merit discussion. The EU have been happy to let the UK be bellicose and noisy in front of their domestic audience while the EU has quietly schooled the UK consistently throughout the Brexit process. The UK have been giving the EU deadlines for a long time now and yet the UK have consistently been the ones to buckle when the time came.

The UK obviously see the Irish Border as the softer underbelly in their opponent and think that they can leverage an advantage out of applying stress to it. However the EU have the potential to destroy the UK financially. It's a bit like a boxer who believes that he can get at his opponent with consistent body shots, not realising his chin is constantly exposed. His opponent has no desire to knock him out, but can if he needs to.

So far the UK's loud and totally ineffective campaign has all goods entering the EU from Britain subject to full rules and regulations and no regulations on goods going in the opposite direction. Did the UK win any significant concessions from the EU on services or financial services in the Brexit negotiations?? Has the UK gained any advantage in any particular commercial field as a benefit of Brexit???? Will their pharmaceutical industry, or space industry, or car manufacturing gain from brexit????

The single most depressing part of Brexit is the sterile reality that the only vision that the Tory party has is of lowering social welfare and forcing more people into low paid jobs with poor job security. Their vision of Britain appears to date from the 1800's. A bit like the speeches in the house of commons stating that the Irish Famine was the fault of the Irish People, a bit more backbone and get up and go and they would have been fine. the Tory party really have never moved on.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138131#Comment_118138131

It has been in my mind over last few years and I would be more EU supportive I think than the average Irish person. It is fears about competence of our politicians/leaders in-extremis that would sometimes have me worried they might make an incorrect choice.

fash

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138109#Comment_118138109

It couldn't ever even be a proper open border unless Ireland literally joined into a customs Union and single market with the UK. Literally handing the Tories the keys to the country. I'd like to see the results of the referendum on that.

Mr Burny

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137239#Comment_118137239

We are the EU

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138460#Comment_118138460

How do people still not understand this basic premise?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118137239#Comment_118137239

The negotiations were conducted with Ireland having the ear of the EU negotiators at all times, and do you not recall the birth of the NI Protocol where Leo and Johnson walked together alone in deep conversation. On that occasion we had the ears on both sides of the negotiation.

Weare a lot more than 'interested observers'. When U von der Leyen tried to invoke Art 16, it lit up Dublin and was immediately cancelled on Dublin's insistence - a sign we are not just observers.

Many EU member states do not have the amount at stake, and are very happy to have Ireland's interests be the lead view. There has never been any hint of a variance of that position.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138092#Comment_118138092

And no one can be certain the UK won't just decide this has all been a bit silly and rejoin the EU in the morning. But its about as likely as any Irish govt willingly giving up their position in the single market.

It is not a scenario worth discussing or worrying about.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138538#Comment_118138538

It really annoys me when people talk about ROI being caught between 2 warring sides. We are not caught in the middle we are firmly and actively on 1 side

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138633#Comment_118138633

It's just another Eurocynic myth that refuses to die like the EU going back to being a trade deal or Turkey joining any day now for the past decade. The UK have seriously undermined their place in the Western Alliance with their nonsense. Who are their allies? Who will side with them over Ireland? The US with its openly Irish Catholic president? China? Brazil? India? Nobody is going to pick them over the EU. It's that simple. Successive governments have hollowed out both the state and the armed forces. The days of them being a superpower ended with the war.

They've spaffed their load and agreed to carve up their own country because they were that desperate. Now, they've antagonised the paleosceptics but that's their problem. There's no way either Ireland or the EU will tolerate any significant changes beyond the framework of the already ratified agreement.

If they want, they can go trigger A16. They know it'll be a catastrophe. The Conservative party may have lost contact with reality but Whitehall has not. They know what happens once that button is pressed and it might well be their final undoing.

ZeroThreat

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138633#Comment_118138633

The Brexit types already have a chip on their shoulder over being backstabbed during WWII so the current turmoil between Ireland and the UK doesn't help.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138460#Comment_118138460

True, but it's the European Commission who does the negotiating on our behalf (and on behalf of the other 26). I was merely saying there is no bilateral Ireland-UK element to the actual Protocol talks.

Iecrawfc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138109#Comment_118138109

it would be interesting what a Sinn Fein government in Dublin would do? may well be in power after the next elections, and with Brexit being the slow car crash it is will there still be the open sore...

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138633#Comment_118138633

It does speak to a slight disconnect though between the EU's institutions and our own. We almost never see EU parliament news reported in our own current affairs programming - except when it's some crisis or something deeply linked with our nation. Which just feeds into that minority myth of the EU as an "other". While what you say is true, and it's a deeply pervasive, tedious myth, I'd say it's born from a lack of exposure of the EU's working weeks within our culture and media. I've no idea if this is the same on the continent mind you; maybe every country has this blindspot, maybe "the week in Brussels" style reporting exists elsewhere, I dunno.

murphaph

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118139351#Comment_118139351

Thankfully we have no FPTP so even if SF got into government and even if they were the largest party, they would never have a majority of the Dail voting in favour of an open border at the expense of the single market. Their coalition partners would walk away and many SF TD's well away from border areas would be on a hiding to nothing with such a policy too.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118138163#Comment_118138163

The UK may see the Irish Border as the softer underbelly but surely it is actually a source of strength and unity in the EU?

France is delighted to have a(nother) reason to take a tough stance against the UK, Germany given it's own history certainly doesn't want to see hard borders within what was previously a single country (and would love another big reunification), Spain has it's own separatists and doesn't want that seen as any sort of solution, plenty of other smaller countries are well invested in the EU project and their ecomonies rely on the scale the SM offers compared to just their domestic market. All will back a current and committed member over a former member who was only ever luke warm to it and is still causing problems despite having walked away.

I think the UK under-estimates how big an issue the Irish border is for most of the EU member states (not the Irish border specifically but what it represents in terms of domestic considerations and long term success of the SM). If the UK wants to make the Irish border a battleground, I'm sure the EU will do whatever it takes to insure there is no doubt who wins that battle.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118139351#Comment_118139351

Not really interesting at all as they will do same as everyone else and protect the single market. If anything they are less likely to want to be seen to be giving in to Johnson.

Seth Brundle

I stumbled on this tweet from former Tory & UKIP MEP and generally politically backwards Roger Helmer and am not sure if I've managed to go back in time...

https://twitter.com/RogerHelmerMEP/status/1456922424507785217

Honestly, can the Brexiteers not come up with an original and plausible defence of their "strategy"?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118142111#Comment_118142111

Roger Helmer (MEP) but who is actually Roger Helmer (Ex MEP) does not realise there is a worldwide chip shortage and those particular products are in short supply and are selling at a premium.

In a trade war, everyone loses.