General British politics discussion thread

Strazdas · 05-07-2021 12:17am

Johnson to hold a press conference at 5pm later today, lifting virtually all Covid restrictions in Britain on July 19th. He's certainly going for broke : apparently masks and social distancing will no longer be compulsory, indoor venues can operate at full capacity, outdoor music festivals and sports events can go ahead etc.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1411799493230669825

listermint · 05-07-2021 12:56am

The Tories don't care. The 128 thousand bodies dead in little over 12 months haven't hurt them it seems. 128,000 Familes impacted with the lost of loves ones many with multiple deaths in the same family. None of it matters .
Why not go for broke sure who cares ?

They've more deaths per day now than the entire EU a grouping with nearly six times it's population.

But I'm sure Dolan can throw out some stats that colours these numbers in a different light.

It's a mess it continues to be a mess their response was a mess their response continues to be a mess. Johnson's current battle now his new distraction technique is to freedomise the use of masks. Create animosity and violence on the streets . Have mask wearers appear woke and get jeered . Rather than expose the empty food shelfs and the rotting food in the fields. The delays in goods and the drop in choice.

People will lap it up .

fash · 05-07-2021 4:26am

listermint wrote: »

The Tories don't care. The 128 thousand bodies dead in little over 12 months haven't hurt them it seems. 128,000 Familes impacted with the lost of loves ones many with multiple deaths in the same family. None of it matters .
Why not go for broke sure who cares ?

They've more deaths per day now than the entire EU a grouping with nearly six times it's population.

But I'm sure Dolan can throw out some stats that colours these numbers in a different light.

It's a mess it continues to be a mess their response was a mess their response continues to be a mess. Johnson's current battle now his new distraction technique is to freedomise the use of masks. Create animosity and violence on the streets . Have mask wearers appear woke and get jeered . Rather than expose the empty food shelfs and the rotting food in the fields. The delays in goods and the drop in choice.

People will lap it up .

In a way this was the original plan "do nothing and let people get infected" - but now with the slight addition of having a large chunk of people vaccinated - but not children or young people and hoping that the vaccine wall holds against any variants that arise. Of note the world pays the price if they miscalculate and allow a new variant to arise as a result of the upcoming infection spike (as Europe is already paying for the UK's failures that led to the existence of alpha and the earlier than necessary spread in Europe of delta)

05-07-2021 8:24am

fash wrote: »

In a way this was the original plan "do nothing and let people get infected" - but now with the slight addition of having a large chunk of people vaccinated - but not children or young people and hoping that the vaccine wall holds against any variants that arise. Of note the world pays the price if they miscalculate and allow a new variant to arise as a result of the upcoming infection spike (as Europe is already paying for the UK's failures that led to the existence of alpha and the earlier than necessary spread in Europe of delta)

On the other hand, it would also result in the UK population having the greatest level of immunity to the virus as the entire population will have either have immunity from having the virus, been vaccinated, been vaccinated and then catching a mind version of COVID or dying from it.

Then visitors to the UK could still arrive infected but they will not be able to spread the virus as everyone in the UK will be resistant to it.

In Reality, it is an acceptance that the "war on COVID" like the "war on drugs" is unwinnable and it's time to move on, the wall of immunity will eventually snuff it out.

05-07-2021 8:52am

listermint wrote: »

They've more deaths per day now than the entire EU a grouping with nearly six times it's population.

But I'm sure Dolan can throw out some stats that colours these numbers in a different light. .

I don’t think anyone needs to colour those numbers in a different light, your statement is just plain wrong.

pixelburp · 05-07-2021 9:04am

listermint wrote: »

The Tories don't care. The 128 thousand bodies dead in little over 12 months haven't hurt them it seems. 128,000 Familes impacted with the lost of loves ones many with multiple deaths in the same family. None of it matters .
Why not go for broke sure who cares ?

They've more deaths per day now than the entire EU a grouping with nearly six times it's population.

But I'm sure Dolan can throw out some stats that colours these numbers in a different light.

It's a mess it continues to be a mess their response was a mess their response continues to be a mess. Johnson's current battle now his new distraction technique is to freedomise the use of masks. Create animosity and violence on the streets . Have mask wearers appear woke and get jeered . Rather than expose the empty food shelfs and the rotting food in the fields. The delays in goods and the drop in choice.

People will lap it up .

Presumably there's also the hope to ride the crest of the the wave sucess at the Euro football championship might cause. Wouldn't be the first politician or ruling government to glom onto sports success mind you, but if England walk away with the trophy - having beaten "Europe" - Johnson's internal data probably points to an ability to paper over any number of cracks with Good Vibes. Would dovetail nicely with all this "Freedom Day" nonsense being touted too. As you say, this is heading towards the Culture war in the UK, scooping up masks as a flashpoint - but hopefully not. At worst it might just make for a a lot of awkward social interactions between the still-cautious & those not so much.

KildareP · 05-07-2021 9:12am

Strazdas wrote: »

Johnson to hold a press conference at 5pm later today, lifting virtually all Covid restrictions in Britain on July 19th. He's certainly going for broke : apparently masks and social distancing will no longer be compulsory, indoor venues can operate at full capacity, outdoor music festivals and sports events can go ahead etc.

https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1411799493230669825

Ah yes, I can see it now.

"Exercise judgement" around being careful but essentially go freely about your lives like before.

If things go well, pat themselves (the government) on the back for a job well done. Got Brexit Done and now got Covid done too.

If (When?) cases and hospitalisations skyrocket instead, blame the public squarely for their collective poor judgement.

The Untouchable Tories.

fash · 05-07-2021 9:20am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

On the other hand, it would also result in the UK population having the greatest level of immunity to the virus as the entire population will have either have immunity from having the virus, been vaccinated, been vaccinated and then catching a mind version of COVID or dying from it.

Then visitors to the UK could still arrive infected but they will not be able to spread the virus as everyone in the UK will be resistant to it.

In Reality, it is an acceptance that the "war on COVID" like the "war on drugs" is unwinnable and it's time to move on, the wall of immunity will eventually snuff it out.

Long covid cases in young people are reasonably high (10-15% showing effects several months later) - some level of restrictions (not as draconian as in Ireland but similar to those in EU countries such as Germany) until you get a large chunk of children vaccinated means you have already built up herd immunity prior to relaxation, children don't suffer from long covid and the remaining vulnerable are protected as herd immunity ensures that the virus quickly dies out.

Joe_ Public · 05-07-2021 9:21am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

On the other hand, it would also result in the UK population having the greatest level of immunity to the virus as the entire population will have either have immunity from having the virus, been vaccinated, been vaccinated and then catching a mind version of COVID or dying from it.

Then visitors to the UK could still arrive infected but they will not be able to spread the virus as everyone in the UK will be resistant to it.

In Reality, it is an acceptance that the "war on COVID" like the "war on drugs" is unwinnable and it's time to move on, the wall of immunity will eventually snuff it out.

It definitely isn't winnable while large tracts of the world remain with hardly any vaccine roll out at all and the risks of further strains developing remains high. If the uk and other G7 nations want to follow this "I'm alright jack" approach, that's all well and good, but the sense of triumphalism doesn't come across well to me when you see what's going on around the globe. All their big pledges to donate millions or billions of doses begin to look rather hollow when Covax was reporting dire shortages several weeks back. That's pretty shameful if you ask me, but there's no votes in vaccinating the world's poor so why would the rich countries really bother?

05-07-2021 10:01am

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Come on has it not been scientifically proven by now that natural immunity against Covid is unattainable? Brazil tried that one and wham people being reinfected again and again with new strains.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-immunity-may-last-for-years-finds-study-1.4576766

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40304999.html

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Even with vaccinations we now looking at having something like 90% fully vaccinated to be able to breathe, every new variant made this figure higher

could you provide something to back up this claim?

All the vaccines are showing good efficacy against all the new variants of concern, so I fail to see why you would make this statement

Podge_irl · 05-07-2021 10:26am

fash wrote: »

In a way this was the original plan "do nothing and let people get infected" - but now with the slight addition of having a large chunk of people vaccinated - but not children or young people and hoping that the vaccine wall holds against any variants that arise. Of note the world pays the price if they miscalculate and allow a new variant to arise as a result of the upcoming infection spike (as Europe is already paying for the UK's failures that led to the existence of alpha and the earlier than necessary spread in Europe of delta)

I suspect a new variant is more likely to arise in the other 5 Billion unvaccinated people than it is in the 30 million unvaccinated Brits.

Variants happen - the alpha variant could have just as easily arisen in Ireland or Germany. Delta is also going to become the dominant variant for now and was going to no matter what the UK did, as can be seen from its rise in Australia.

The UK (and everyone) needs to come out of restrictions at some point. There is a perfectly valid argument that having a spike in cases now is better than in autumn/winter. There is no indication that there is disagreement from PHE

05-07-2021 12:01pm

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

That’s what one of the experts on news talk morning show last week was saying I’ll check Spotify later

Btw you are confusing immunity with efficacy, one you don’t get infected the other you still get infected potentially but might not lead hospitalisation

Best case scenario Covid mutates into something that doesn’t kill as many like Spanish flu did, but somehow to surprise of scientists Covid keeps mutating into more virulent and deadlier strains that spread easier. This is where UKs policy of creating a breeding ground is so reprehensible.

We might never have herd immunity to Covid just like we don’t have immunity to common cold

We probably will never have full immunity. The fact we ha w to give out flu jabs every year is testament to that.

We have to go back to normal (whatever that looks like) at some point.

Leroy42 · 05-07-2021 12:16pm

Aegir wrote: »

We probably will never have full immunity. The fact we ha w to give out flu jabs every year is testament to that.

We have to go back to normal (whatever that looks like) at some point.

Sure, but does it make sense that that point is in the midst of a massive rise in daily cases and a new variant that is more transferable?

This line that "well it has to happen at some stage" is close to a strawman, and the government know exactly what they are doing by extolling it.

Who is going to argue for keeping the restrictions for ever? It's akin to 'when did you stop beating your wife?" question.

And we don't have to go back to normal. Thats not how this works. We all want to, we would all prefer to, but simply wanting it doesn't change the fact.
We have been extremely fortunate to have been able to not only discover but produce a vaccine that works and is safe. It would be foolish to think that should the disease mutate that it will be as 'easy' again.

It think that the speed of developing the vaccine has led many to think that the problem is essentially solved and nothing to worry about.

Podge_irl · 05-07-2021 12:23pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

And we don't have to go back to normal. Thats not how this works.

Its how it worked for every other pandemic in human history eventually. The disease will mutate again. The chances of delta being the last significant variant are almost zero. Also, there is absolutely no reason to suspect it would be harder to produce a booster or new vaccine for the variant. The only problem will be rolling it out again if needed (a not insignificant problem granted).

The core argument seems to be that its better to have the spike in summer than winter. There is logic behind it and it is, by all accounts, generally supported in principle by PHE.

Leroy42 · 05-07-2021 12:40pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

Its how it worked for every other pandemic in human history eventually. The disease will mutate again. The chances of delta being the last significant variant are almost zero. Also, there is absolutely no reason to suspect it would be harder to produce a booster or new vaccine for the variant. The only problem will be rolling it out again if needed (a not insignificant problem granted).

The core argument seems to be that its better to have the spike in summer than winter. There is logic behind it and it is, by all accounts, generally supported in principle by PHE.

Eventually being the operative word. The numbers do not suggest that eventually is now. It seems very much to be a political decision, ignoring the risks for political gain.

They might end up getting away with it, they won their last bet on the vaccine gap between 1st and 2nd and they have got massive political capital out of that.

So I can completely understand where Johnson and his government as coming from. Popular now, and deal with any issues later on.

devnull · 05-07-2021 12:51pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Eventually being the operative word. The numbers do not suggest that eventually is now. It seems very much to be a political decision, ignoring the risks for political gain.

You also have to remember the majority of Tory voters would be double jabbed at the point the restrictions are lifted and the people who are not double jabbed are going to be people who are not that likely to vote Tory anyway.

They're merely playing to their supporters, most of their supporters who are double jabbed are also the ones that are applying the pressure to remove all restrictions because they have the protection of two jabs whereas others are not so lucky.

The people who are going to be at most at risk here would be those in their 30s and 40s who would have only had one jab by the time that the restrictions are lifted and whilst they can still wear masks and take precautions. They are not going to be able to be fully personally responsible for what happens as they can't control what others do around them in the absence of any restrictions.

Strazdas · 05-07-2021 12:52pm

There seems to be a new narrative developing in Britain that the Delta variant is virtually harmless, as fewer people are being hospitalised or dying.

But that underestimates just how sick people become with Covid. I've a friend in his mid 40s who contracted Covid, is normally as fit as a fiddle and healthy but ended up being pole axed by it and thought he was going to die - despite not being hospitalised.

It seems a very risky / dangerous strategy to downgrade the threat from Delta as Johnson is doing and treat it as if it's just like picking up a cold or the flu.

05-07-2021 12:56pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Eventually being the operative word. The numbers do not suggest that eventually is now. It seems very much to be a political decision, ignoring the risks for political gain.

They might end up getting away with it, they won their last bet on the vaccine gap between 1st and 2nd and they have got massive political capital out of that.

So I can completely understand where Johnson and his government as coming from. Popular now, and deal with any issues later on.

The numbers will always go up and down, the question is do we keep implementing restrictions every time the number go up and yet the hospital number don’t follow suit?

Should we also implement a lockdown every winter to keep the spread of flu under control?

05-07-2021 12:59pm

devnull wrote: »

You also have to remember the majority of Tory voters would be double jabbed at the point the restrictions are lifted and the people who are not double jabbed are going to be people who are not that likely to vote Tory anyway.

They're merely playing to their supporters, most of their supporters who are double jabbed are also the ones that are applying the pressure to remove all restrictions because they have the protection of two jabs whereas others are not so lucky.

Im sorry, but that is absolute nonsense.

Podge_irl · 05-07-2021 1:02pm

Strazdas wrote: »

There seems to be a new narrative developing in Britain that the Delta variant is virtually harmless, as fewer people are being hospitalised or dying.

But that underestimates just how sick people become with Covid. I've a friend in his mid 40s who contracted Covid, is normally as fit as a fiddle and healthy but ended up being pole axed by it and thought he was going to die - despite not being hospitalised.

It seems a very risky / dangerous strategy to downgrade the threat from Delta as Johnson is doing and treat it as if it's just like picking up a cold or the flu.

There also seems to be a narrative that the level of restrictions across Europe are not completely unprecedented and a massive incursion on people's liberties that needs significant compelling reasons. Stopping people getting quite ill is not sufficient. The mantra and logic initially was the need to stop the health services from being overwhelmed - I can happily get on board with that. But if that is not currently a risk then the balance changes.

Leroy42 · 05-07-2021 1:06pm

Aegir wrote: »

The numbers will always go up and down, the question is do we keep implementing restrictions every time the number go up and yet the hospital number don’t follow suit?

Should we also implement a lockdown every winter to keep the spread of flu under control?

Are we really back to saying this is akin to the flu?

Leroy42 · 05-07-2021 1:10pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

There also seems to be a narrative that the level of restrictions across Europe are not completely unprecedented and a massive incursion on people's liberties that needs significant compelling reasons. Stopping people getting quite ill is not sufficient. The mantra and logic initially was the need to stop the health services from being overwhelmed - I can happily get on board with that. But if that is not currently a risk then the balance changes.

The issue is that once it gets out of control it is very difficult to deal with it. We saw it in the US, Italy, UK and recently in India. Where they went from congratulating themselves and dealing with it to full on crisis.

If, and its a a big if, the rapid pread leads to a further mutation and then the vaccine doesn't work as well then the UK could rapidly find itself overrun in the NHS.

By that stage it will be too late to actually stop it and all that can be done is bury the dead and hope for the best.

And this isn't the first time. Exiting 1st lockdown we heard the same arguments. Same with the 2nd. Now the vaccinations are the reason why this time everything is fine.

And they might very well be right. Its a hell of a gamble. And that is exactly what it is. A gamble. Put everything on Red.

When a more sensible, but less popular and harder option, is to maintain controls and look to get even more people vaccinated over the next month or two and then it becomes less of a gamble.

05-07-2021 1:20pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Are we really back to saying this is akin to the flu?

That ain’t what I said, is it.

Leroy42 · 05-07-2021 1:22pm

Aegir wrote: »

That ain’t what I said, is it.

So why are you bring the flu into it? What was the purpose of that line in your post?

Strazdas · 05-07-2021 1:25pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

The issue is that once it gets out of control it is very difficult to deal with it. We saw it in the US, Italy, UK and recently in India. Where they went from congratulating themselves and dealing with it to full on crisis.

If, and its a a big if, the rapid pread leads to a further mutation and then the vaccine doesn't work as well then the UK could rapidly find itself overrun in the NHS.

By that stage it will be too late to actually stop it and all that can be done is bury the dead and hope for the best.

And this isn't the first time. Exiting 1st lockdown we heard the same arguments. Same with the 2nd. Now the vaccinations are the reason why this time everything is fine.

And they might very well be right. Its a hell of a gamble. And that is exactly what it is. A gamble. Put everything on Red.

When a more sensible, but less popular and harder option, is to maintain controls and look to get even more people vaccinated over the next month or two and then it becomes less of a gamble.

I can understand some of the easing of restrictions by Johnson but lifting the ban on indoor mask wearing and on public transport for example seems bonkers - all the indications are that this is an effective measure.

breezy1985 · 05-07-2021 1:31pm

Strazdas wrote: »

I can understand some of the easing of restrictions by Johnson but lifting the ban on indoor mask wearing and on public transport for example seems bonkers - all the indications are that this is an effective measure.

Its a stupid decision. Having to wear a mask on transport or doing shopping really isnt that hard a thing to do and there is no reason to get rid of it this soon

Strazdas · 05-07-2021 1:35pm

breezy1985 wrote: »

Its a stupid decision. Having to wear a mask on transport or doing shopping really isnt that hard a thing to do and there is no reason to get rid of it this soon

It all seems to be based on the 'Covid is as good as over' and 'Delta variant is practically harmless' thing that the Tories and the Brexit press are pushing. If nobody has to wear a mask, it will show to Johnson's supporters that the pandemic is at an end and everything is back to normal.

Podge_irl · 05-07-2021 1:40pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

The issue is that once it gets out of control it is very difficult to deal with it. We saw it in the US, Italy, UK and recently in India. Where they went from congratulating themselves and dealing with it to full on crisis.

If, and its a a big if, the rapid pread leads to a further mutation and then the vaccine doesn't work as well then the UK could rapidly find itself overrun in the NHS.

Yes it could. But you can not (or at least should not) implement massively restrictive social measures as a prophylactic. This is an incredibly large expansion of government power and intrusion into personal liberty that needs significant and immediately compelling reasons.

I am not a fan of their marketing of it and their bull**** around "Freedom Day" and all that nonsense. The current UK govt have quite the knack for pomposity and ridiculousness but they are not wildly flying in the face of scientific evidence in this case. There is, as is often the case, very much a split of opinion on the matter. I also don't think removing the mask mandate on public transport is necessary, but then compliance in London doesn't seem great anyway. The difference between a recommendation and an unenforced rule is minimal.

Leroy42 wrote: »

When a more sensible, but less popular and harder option, is to maintain controls and look to get even more people vaccinated over the next month or two and then it becomes less of a gamble.

I'm not all that sure it is less popular. Regardless of the levels of vaccination, as they will never be 100% and nor are the vaccines 100% effective, there will be an increase in cases following any step change in rules. There are models showing that it is better to have that peak in summer than winter. Maybe they are wrong, but they are also not making it up.

05-07-2021 1:47pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

So why are you bring the flu into it? What was the purpose of that line in your post?

it was a straight forward comparison, I thought that was pretty obvious.

every year europe sees a considerable number of deaths from Flu, but there is no lockdown. This would suggest that there is an acceptable number of deaths with regards this particular disease.

Sooner or later, the same will have to apply to Covid as well.

Strazdas wrote: »

It all seems to be based on the 'Covid is as good as over' and 'Delta variant is practically harmless' thing that the Tories and the Brexit press are pushing. If nobody has to wear a mask, it will show to Johnson's supporters that the pandemic is at an end and everything is back to normal.

where are you getting this from? No one is saying that Delta is less harmless at all.

Sam Russell · 05-07-2021 1:52pm

Is there a link between the variants and the AZ vaccine?

AZ was tested in UK, SA, Brazil, and India. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta in that order.

A virus will mutate - it is their nature. The mutation will either be unsuccessful and die out, or it will be successful and propagate wildly. Now a vaccine against the virus will be successful where it suppresses that virus, but if it is not able to suppress the new variant that will multiply more so and become dominant, just like delta is doing now.

A virus that spreads without symptoms in the many, will infect many more than one the has serious symptoms. A variant that spreads more quickly, will - well, spread more quickly. So the delta variant appears to be able to spread more quickly and have less symptoms on the many, but gives rise to long Covid. Just what no-one wants.

And the UK are about to remove all protective measures.

General British politics discussion thread

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