Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

When the covid fearmongering eventually disappears , they can go back to their staples of news on the endless failures here in housing, health, infrastructure etc.... they might as well milk covid for all its worth...

DarkJager21 wrote: »

Na I'm not putting anyone on ignore, I have no problem with him (we simply disagree on the media role in all of this scaremongering). Nothing gets solved by putting fingers in your ears.

But it works for ME.
I put someone on the ignore list if i know that any interaction will be fruitless.
Some people are just way below the average line of understanding that its best to ignore.imo of course.
And you seem to think that something can be solved on a forum like this.
Thats a very nice thing to think and i wish i could share it.
Alas, i have no such hope..

Red Silurian wrote: »

At least we can agree ignorance gets you nowhere... Did you manage to find evidence of the below? You knwo the proof that RTE are not following the science? All it takes is one article from the last 2 weeks

My point has nothing to do with the "science" - I'm talking about the role of RTE & others in keeping the wheels of fear in motion. A week or 2 ago, it was all sunshine and lollipops. Then MM delays restrictions and serious questions around the truthfulness of those projections the delay was grounded on start popping up. Like clockwork out come NPHET and the media outlets to lay the doom on thick and fast lest any peasant get ideas they can question the mighty public health advise.

It's so transparent and I simply do not see how you can trust RTE or any other media outlet. Not a single one of them have questioned it, and it doesn't look like any will either.

Edit: Also, just to add that Delta has a 0.3% fatality rate. Alpha (the strain we started with) is up over 2.0%. If that's the science you want to discuss, then tell me why Ireland is the only country ****ting the bed over Delta when it's a dud?

is_that_so wrote: »

They are focusing on what has happened in the UK and projecting it to happen here and their real interest is in case rates.

Is the rate of change in daily cases slowing in the UK? When do they expect to peak?

Deleted User wrote: »

Anybody who believes COVID-19 at this stage is equivalent to a cold is being disingenuous. How many hospitalisations does the common cold cause?

There comes a point when the vulnerable cohort and above a certain age cohort are vaccinated that covid will be as virulent in the population as the flu.

What that point is nobody has offered any data on, but it should be the point at which restrictions are eliminated and non pharmaceutical measures such as masks are still in use.

MOH wrote: »

Except that most of the increases have been seen in the younger cohorts that aren't yet vaccinated. Unless you're suggesting that we're vaccinating fast enough to outpace the 60% transmission increase from Delta. In which case, how would it "make no difference" if we started vaccinating even faster?

No I don't think vaccinations are outpacing Delta but they are having a significant impact even now. Why do you think we're seeing increases mainlh in cohorts who aren't vaccinated?

MOH wrote: »

Except the fact is that case number have declined much faster than expected.
7-day average Apr 1: 549 / May 1: 461 / Jun 28 (doom letter day): 324

If you look at the graph linked you will note that case numbers have remained relatively high despite increased levels of vaccination. Why do you think that is? Much the same pattern can be seen going right back to April

https://i.imgflip.com/5f8rn7.jpg

MOH wrote: »

Regardless of when you want to start counting Delta as having first entered the country, between then and June 28th when Tony told us it's at 55%, cases dropped dramatically.

No its not 'regardless". An equivalent time frame is required to look at changes in infections but also how vaccination rates and restrictions may have made a significant impact.

MOH wrote: »

How is it incongruous to point out that despite Delta becoming the dominant variant, it hasn't prevented all major metrics dropping to levels not seen since before Christmas?

When did it Delta become dominant? Current estimates report that delta is likley to become dominant by mid-July.

But more importantly Delta was first detected here in April 2021 and in that time we have also had a rapid increase roll out of the vaccination programme. Restrictions to date are also a factor.

MOH wrote: »

Well, it still has to be one of those unless you have an alternative. My money is on the last one.

Or perhaps you've left out a number of important variables in your calculations? You are of course free to put your money where you wish

MOH wrote: »

We share a border with Northern Ireland. The one area of the UK which has seen no increase in hospitalisations due to Delta. (Also the one area that is neither participating in or hosting an international football tournament).

Afaik NI has a lower proportion of Delta cases than the UK with just over half of all NI cases linked to Delta variant. They also have high proportion of their population vaccinated compared to here.

MOH wrote: »

That article is very interesting, thanks, ...

No problem. I think what that article does highlight is the difficulties tracking evolving viral strains and the time lag required to determine quantitve rates of change relating to those strains. I believe an updated report is due out this week.

Hurrache wrote: »

I'll be more cutting and blunt, they're idiots all over the kip with their ideology, or lack of, as they haven't really a notion as to what's connected to what.

Where are you getting your sizable majority notion from? Everyone is fed up, but not to the point where they all just want to sit in a pub regardless.

But sure their gut feeling....

Fair enough, go tomorrow and say it to them if you feel that strongly about it.

As for people listening to their gut feeling, I assume you mean in the context of this yes? If you mean not listening to your gut overall, well that's your mistake

Hurrache wrote: »

Obviously the modelling based on the opening is no longer applicable because the opening is no longer happening.

Yeah that's the point. They never provided modelling for what will happen now. So we're in a period where nobody actually has a clue what's going to happen.

Red Silurian wrote: »

What reports specifically don't follow the science? Can you link me to one example of this in the last 2 weeks?

I feel like I just did this, but:
https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1230774/

The most recent whole-genome sequencing data is three weeks old. Just 5% of cases were the Delta variant.
...
...
When the whole-genome sequencing is completed for last week, it’s possible more than 100 Delta cases will be associated with it.
That’s a significant increase: As of last Thursday, there had been 188 cases of Delta in total confirmed in Ireland.

a) make a statement about something possible.
b) immediately assume that as a fact, then use it to imply Delta cases increased by 50% in a week.
c) deliberately exaggerate the timeline. If the most recent sequencing data is 3 weeks old, then that's when the last confirmed Delta figures are from. So there were 188 cases confirmed as of 3 weeks ago.
So while it's technically also correct to say "last Thursday", it's deliberately misleading to exaggerate the supposed increase.

"Delta cases have increased by 32 in the last 3 weeks" doesn't sound nearly as scary, but does have the benefit of not being deliberately exaggerated to conclude the article on an ominous note.

timmyntc wrote: »

So f*cking what?

Cases dont matter - hospitalisations matter.
21 people are in hospital in NI. 2 in ICU. Thats what matters.
January peak was over 1000. We are currently at 2% of that.

Yes, this is what I don't understand...

With every other disease going, we're only concerned about those who end up in Hospital and those who sadly pass away...

Yet, we're obsessed with case numbers with this disease, even people who don't even feel anything or know they have it, why? Especially with vaccinations working against it, I'm not understanding the fascination with the case numbers...

RTE news : Govt to buy one million vaccine doses from Romania

http://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0702/1232726-vaccine-romania-purchase/

Game changer

MOR316 wrote: »

Yes, this is what I don't understand...

With every other disease going, we're only concerned about those who end up in Hospital and those who sadly pass away...

Yet, we're obsessed with case numbers with this disease, even people who don't even feel anything or know they have it, why? Especially with vaccinations working against it, I'm not understanding the fascination with the case numbers...

It's the transmissibility of Covid that is the issue.

Where have you been for the last 16 months?

Allinall wrote: »

It's the transmissibility of Covid that is the issue.

Where have you been for the last 16 months?

In Limbo.

Allinall wrote: »

What are the numbers, hospitalizations etc. like there?

Not bad, they have a proper health system in place there