Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings

JeffKenna · 02-07-2021 02:07PM

TefalBrain wrote: »

BBC World news had an expert on yesterday that stated the virus is no more dangerous now than a common cold for unvaccintated under 40's. Hospital numbers in the UK have seen no surge or even risen that much in the last few weeks. He also added that although Delta is more transmissible it is it anything less dangerous than the original Covid strain of the virus.

Don't expect RTÉ to have views like that expressed on radio or TV under threat from their main revenue provider at present the government

It's actually crazy the reporting RTE have. Main news headlines on radio one was about 50k cases in the UK. No word about hospitalisations or intensive care numbers.

ElTel · 02-07-2021 02:08PM

normanoffside wrote: »

That’s not correct.
The maps on this page show testing rates and positivity rates. We are middle of the road in testing.
Denmark for example is testing about 600,000 a day and has a similar population to us.
Most of the green countries test more than us and have their poisitivity rates below 1%

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/weekly-maps-coordinated-restriction-free-movement

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/health/medical/rapid-covid-19-tests-are-highly-accurate-when-used-every-three-days/ar-AALFHpW?ocid=msedgdhp

Serial rapid testing eh?

TH doubled down yesterday with his we'll save all lives possible.
It's all about covering for the health service, being the envy of Europe for vaccine uptake and fcuk knows maybe reaching herd immunity without the need to vax kids...

He does not care about the costs and efforts to continue as is for a virus that is defanged/declawed because (I think) he planning for similar measures in this winter's flu season.

is_that_so · 02-07-2021 02:09PM

TefalBrain wrote: »

BBC World news had an expert on yesterday that stated the virus is no more dangerous now than a common cold for unvaccintated under 40's. Hospital numbers in the UK have seen no surge or even risen that much in the last few weeks. He also added that although Delta is more transmissible it is it anything less dangerous than the original Covid strain of the virus.

Don't expect RTÉ to have views like that expressed on radio or TV under threat from their main revenue provider at present the government

We'll need to see big numbers and few to no hospitalisations to prove that thesis. The trouble is that NPHET and all equivalent authorities work off the 5, 7 and 14 days rate of cases to make decisions and offer advice.

Ladylouth · 02-07-2021 02:10PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Still shows admissions per day but curiously not discharges.

The hackers took the discharges and left the admissions!

namloc1980 · 02-07-2021 02:10PM

JeffKenna wrote: »

It's actually crazy the reporting RTE have. Main news headlines on radio one was about 50k cases in the UK. No word about hospitalisations or intensive care numbers.

They know the game is up if they focus on how little impact there has been on hospitalisations/deaths in the UK despite case numbers going up in the UK since mid-May. Whereas big scary case numbers will keep the clicks coming and people tuning in.

timmyntc · 02-07-2021 02:12PM

is_that_so wrote: »

We'll need to see big numbers and few to no hospitalisations to prove that thesis. The trouble is that NPHET and all equivalent authorities work off the 5, 7 and 14 days rate of cases to make decisions and offer advice.

We already are seeing big case numbers there, hospitalisations are still very very low.
And overwhelmingly in over 40s anyways (who are vaccinated).
Young people, even while unvaccinated are at negligible risk from the virus.

Chivito550 · 02-07-2021 02:12PM

Folks, RTE have been massively propped up by HSE ad revenue over the last year. There's a clear conflict of interest at play. Surprised many can't see this.

BBC doesn't receive ad revenue. There's the difference.

gozunda · 02-07-2021 02:12PM

MOH wrote: »

Yet in the timeframe that Delta went from 0% to 55% of our cases, our case numbers dropped by 45% to a six month low, our active cases dropped by about 16%, our hospital figures dropped significantly, our death rate hit an 8-month low.

Do you not see any contradiction in that?

Either everyone is wrong about the increased transmissibility (highly unlikely), NPHETs estimates of the current prevalence of Delta in Ireland is wrong (but sure they're infallible), or all our figures are unreliable to the point of uselessness.

Maybe there's another explanation, I'd welcome one because any of those are quite concerning.

Vaccinations are the most evident explanation why we're not seeing any noticeable rise in infections atm . But no that doesn't negate transmissibility.

And the fact is that case numbers unfortunately are not declining as has been expected

I would suggest that the six and 8 month lows you've given extend well beyond the period when Delta was first detected here - therefore using either as an reference point to Delta infections is somewhat incongruous

But no I do not believe that "everyone is wrong about the increased transmissibility" or "that the estimates of the current prevalence of Delta in Ireland is wrong , or all our figures are unreliable to the point of uselessness"

We know Delta has spread rapidly in the UK, a region we share an open border with. We also know we have active cases here. We also know that the detection of the new variant is ongoing.

This article gives a fairly good overview of how Delta was first tracked here.

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1230774/

lawrencesummers · 02-07-2021 02:12PM

is_that_so wrote: »

We'll need to see big numbers and few to no hospitalisations to prove that thesis. The trouble is that NPHET and all equivalent authorities work off the 5, 7 and 14 days rate of cases to make decisions and offer advice.

Those numbers exist in parts of the UK.

They won’t be allowed to exist here with the current restrictions.

Mullaghteelin · 02-07-2021 02:13PM

acequion wrote: »

And considering he was part and parcel of that toxic FF administration that ran this country over a cliff and caused almost a decade of economic carnage it really beggars belief that he is now Taoiseach and that he was comfortably voted back in every election since. "You get the Govt you deserve" is an unfortunate truism.

And I agree with the posters who don't want to be associated with protests run by nutters and anti vaxxers. We need protests run by reasonable people with credibility but we have a leadership vacuum in that respect.

It's incredibly depressing. I'd advise any bright young person to start looking into a future overseas.

You can guarantee there will be nutters and crazy people at ANY protest, so the media will focus on them and smear the other 99% of ordinary concerned citizens
Any "reasonable people" who get involved will suddenly find the entire government propaganda machine focusing on them, selectively editing their words and actions to undermine them.

suicide_circus · 02-07-2021 02:21PM

A change of rhetoric from our Aussie bretheren it seems;

https://mobile.twitter.com/10NewsFirstMelb/status/1410796394932105218

aidoh · 02-07-2021 02:21PM

bloopy wrote: »

Isn't the delta variant just the renamed indian variant?
What happened in India that their cases dropped so much?

Ivermectin.

facehugger99 · 02-07-2021 02:22PM

JeffKenna wrote: »

It's actually crazy the reporting RTE have. Main news headlines on radio one was about 50k cases in the UK. No word about hospitalisations or intensive care numbers.

Top 3 Stories on RTE News Website

Vaccine for Younger people
India Covid death toll passes 400k
Australia tighten borders to curb Virus

People are being played for fools in this country and there are many too stupid to even see it.

namloc1980 · 02-07-2021 02:23PM

What difference does it make if case numbers in the UK are going up a lot but severe outcomes are not at all tracking the case numbers. Huge increase in case numbers since mid May in the UK with only a fraction of that increase seen in hospitalisation/ICU/deaths. Why are NPHET pointing to "look what's happening in the UK" while taking no account of the clear decoupling between cases and severe outcomes? The UK CMO has taken the view that they are now at the point where the risk is acceptable given wat the data is showing. We're still hiding under the bed and talking about hurricanes and doom and gloom coming and tuning into the daily case numbers nonsense.

suicide_circus · 02-07-2021 02:23PM

aidoh wrote: »

Ivermectin.

You can't say that!!!

jakiah · 02-07-2021 02:27PM

namloc1980 wrote: »

What difference does it make if case numbers in the UK are going up a lot but severe outcomes are not at all tracking the case numbers. Huge increase in case numbers since mid May in the UK with only a fraction of that increase seen in hospitalisation/ICU/deaths. Why are NPHET pointing to "look what's happening in the UK" while taking no account of the clear decoupling between cases and severe outcomes? The UK CMO has taken the view that they are now at the point where the risk is acceptable given wat the data is showing. We're still hiding under the bed and talking about hurricanes and doom and gloom coming and tuning into the daily case numbers nonsense.

Is there an argument here that preventing transmission is actually dragging out the impact of the virus? That the likes of the UK will reach herd immunity much quicker than we will because of our approach....

Ballynally · 02-07-2021 02:35PM

timmyntc wrote: »

We already are seeing big case numbers there, hospitalisations are still very very low.
And overwhelmingly in over 40s anyways (who are vaccinated).
Young people, even while unvaccinated are at negligible risk from the virus.

Atm, afaik, the official NHS numbers for age devide the under and over 50s.
Imo that over 50s grouping is too large. If we leave co morbidities aside, it might be suggested that, like previous waves and variants it is mainly the elderly who suffer severe symptoms and death due to their impaired immune system despite being vaccinated. Those numbers are still pretty low despite the rise in cases. Under 50s are much less likely to suffer prolonged symptoms and death. The younger you get the safer you are and the safest group are the under 50s with full vaccinations, having led to zero deaths in the UK so far.
It is all a matter of scale. In the UK they seem to understand that.
In Ireland, well..

gozunda · 02-07-2021 02:36PM

TefalBrain wrote: »

BBC World news had an expert on yesterday that stated the virus is no more dangerous now than a common cold for unvaccintated under 40's. Hospital numbers in the UK have seen no surge or even risen that much in the last few weeks. He also added that although Delta is more transmissible it is it anything less dangerous than the original Covid strain of the virus.

Don't expect RTÉ to have views like that expressed on radio or TV under threat from their main revenue provider at present the government

Out of interest - which 'expert' was that? The last guy who they had on was a consulting sociologist - if that's him he may be an expert but I wouldn't be consulting him about covid tbh.

ElTel · 02-07-2021 02:37PM

suicide_circus wrote: »

A change of rhetoric from our Aussie bretheren it seems;

https://mobile.twitter.com/10NewsFirstMelb/status/1410796394932105218

The ammo is mounting for MM to finally grow a pair and put Nphet back in it's box.
LV more likely to but will he?

Hurrache · 02-07-2021 02:38PM

normanoffside wrote: »

There is tomorrow at 12 at the GPO

https://www.instagram.com/p/CQuSSY0nPDL/

Seems like "Trust your gut" may have taken the same approach to all things in life, sure who needs education when you have your gut.

timmyntc · 02-07-2021 02:39PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Seems like "Trust your gut" may have taken the same approach to all things in life, sure who needs education when you have your gut.

Would you say Tony is trusting his gut when recommending demanding we dont relax restrictions?

Because the flawed modelling data certainly implies a lack of education

Hurrache · 02-07-2021 02:41PM

Chivito550 wrote: »

Folks, RTE have been massively propped up by HSE ad revenue over the last year. There's a clear conflict of interest at play. Surprised many can't see this.

BBC doesn't receive ad revenue. There's the difference.

You might want to take a bit more of a look into that with regards to the relationships between the BBC and the Tories.

MOH · 02-07-2021 02:41PM

Except that most of the increases have been seen in the younger cohorts that aren't yet vaccinated. Unless you're suggesting that we're vaccinating fast enough to outpace the 60% transmission increase from Delta. In which case, how would it "make no difference" if we started vaccinating even faster?

gozunda wrote: »

And the fact is that case numbers unfortunately are not declining as has been expected

Except the fact is that case number have declined much faster than expected.

7-day average Apr 1: 549 / May 1: 461 / Jun 28 (doom letter day): 324

Regardless of when you want to start counting Delta as having first entered the country, between then and June 28th when Tony told us it's at 55%, cases dropped dramatically.

I would suggest that the six and 8 month lows you've given extend well beyond the period when Delta was first detected here - therefore using either as an reference point to Delta infections is somewhat incongruous

How is it incongruous to point out that despite Delta becoming the dominant variant, it hasn't prevented all major metrics dropping to levels not seen since before Christmas?

But no I do not believe that "everyone is wrong about the increased transmissibility" or "that the estimates of the current prevalence of Delta in Ireland is wrong , or all our figures are unreliable to the point of uselessness"

Well, it still has to be one of those unless you have an alternative. My money is on the last one.

We know Delta has spread rapidly in the UK, a region we share an open border with. We also know we have active cases here. We also know that the detection of the new variant is ongoing.

This article gives a fairly good overview of how Delta was first tracked here.

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1230774/

[/quote]
We share a border with Northern Ireland. The one area of the UK which has seen no increase in hospitalisations due to Delta. (Also the one area that is neither participating in or hosting an international football tournament).

That article is very interesting, thanks, since it seems to be saying that basically we're not tracking Delta at all. We're tracking Alpha, and assuming that as Alpha prevalence falls it's being replaced by Delta. So basically it's all pure speculation.

This section in particular stands out as a perfect example of RTEs reporting on Covid:

When the whole-genome sequencing is completed for last week, it’s possible more than 100 Delta cases will be associated with it.

That’s a significant increase: As of last Thursday, there had been 188 cases of Delta in total confirmed in Ireland.

Wow! Cases up by over 50% in one week?! That sounds scary!
... Except they're comparing possible (not even probable) cases with confirmed cases. It's in no way a "significant increase", it's not even a valid comparison.
Holohan's letter from 5 days later states a total of 220 confirmed cases to date.
And also notes 80 confirmed and 80 probable cases over the previous six weeks.
But sure those kind of numbers won't monger the fear quite as much.

Hurrache · 02-07-2021 02:44PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Would you say Tony is trusting his gut when recommending demanding we dont relax restrictions?

Because the flawed modelling data certainly implies a lack of education

The government makes the decision, like they always have. If you made a mistake in your first take, it would have been quicker for you to delete rather than strike through.

is_that_so · 02-07-2021 02:46PM

timmyntc wrote: »

We already are seeing big case numbers there, hospitalisations are still very very low.
And overwhelmingly in over 40s anyways (who are vaccinated).
Young people, even while unvaccinated are at negligible risk from the virus.

There is unquestionably an argument to use case rates as a starting point to predict potential hospitalisations but when that level is very low it also needs to feed back into the assumptions. In our own case we've been at a level of 300-400 cases a day yet hospital rates have declined significantly. NPHET continue to use the 5 day rate etc as justification for their stance but it doesn't look like that risk is there any more.

timmyntc · 02-07-2021 02:47PM

Hurrache wrote: »

The government makes the decision, like they always have. If you made a mistake in your first take, it would have been quicker for you to delete rather than strike through.

I never said Tony made the decision - re-read my post, it was clearly lost on you.
And the strike through is for emphasis, not mistakes.

MOR316 · 02-07-2021 02:49PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Seems like "Trust your gut" may have taken the same approach to all things in life, sure who needs education when you have your gut.

I'm unsure of your tone here. It's quite cutting and insulting to many and I can't understand why and where it's coming

Out of curiousity, can I ask what's your particular issue with that protest/gathering?
A sizable majority are fed up, frustrated, financially and mentally broken, no one is calling the Government or NPHET out on certain decisions...It's very understandable to me why such a thing was organised. As long as there's no trouble or violence at it, I'm really not sure what the problem is here?

If you haven't been affected by things as badly as others and you're happy out, great. I just don't see why you're venting about something that has zero bearing on you. They're not breaking any laws

Can you explain to me please?

Red Silurian · 02-07-2021 02:50PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

Top 5 stories on BBN News Website
Forces to quit Afghanistan Base

Boy Scouts Sex Abuse Compensation

Lebanon Energy Crisis

Toppling of statues in Canada

Microsoft Windows Operating System update

Top 3 Stories on RTE News Website
Vaccine for Younger people

India Covid death toll passes 400k

Australia tighten borders to curb Virus

People are being played for fools in this country and there are many too stupid to even see it.

Looks to me like RTE are just reporting the news, but each to their own

is_that_so · 02-07-2021 02:50PM

Now this is what the CMO is worried about!

British teenagers are using TikTok to learn and share tips for faking positive Covid-19 tests as hundreds of thousands of pupils in “bubbles” are already being forced to miss school.

https://inews.co.uk/news/technology/tiktok-fake-covid-positive-test-schools-1079693

DarkJager21 · 02-07-2021 02:52PM

Red Silurian wrote: »

Looks to me like RTE are just reporting the news, but each to their own

RTE are a cog in the machine for government and NPHET, the poster is outlining that all of their top stories are purely there to crank the fear machine. Other countries barely register Covid related news but our disgustingly incompetent media can do nothing more than act as a hype man for it.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII Read OP For Mod Warnings