The Delta variant

Deusexmachina · 28-06-2021 09:10PM

hmmm wrote: »

The data is a bit unclear at the moment as to how much risk there is of vaccinated people transmitting Delta. Being vaccinated you're largely protected yourself, but they don't want you wandering around potentially spreading it. I can understand why they're being very cautious, and also they're under a lot of pressure dealing with something which is very new and not very well understood.

Spare me the fear. If you are fully vaccinated you are very safe. If you even have had one jab you are extremely unlikely to be hospitalised with Covid.

Nearly 4 million of us have been vaccinated.

How about an abundance of positivity, joy and optimism instead of this abundance of caution we so love in Ireland.

We need to get back to normal life.

28-06-2021 09:11PM

Stheno wrote: »

Takes 3 weeks to confirm genome sequencing

If you'd told me a year ago I would know the term genome sequencing I'd have thought you were insane

You can get a fair idea without waiting. Alpha can be easily identified due to the missing S-gene which shows up as negative on PCR. Any tests that shows up as positive is very likely Delta

hmmm · 28-06-2021 09:14PM

Deusexmachina wrote: »

Spare me the fear. If you are fully vaccinated you are very safe. If you even have had one jab you are extremely unlikely to be hospitalised with Covid.

Nearly 4 million of us have been vaccinated.

That's what I said, I don't know where you are getting "fear" from.

4 million doses. That's not 4 million people.

Donald Trump · 28-06-2021 09:15PM

Deusexmachina wrote: »

Spare me the fear. If you are fully vaccinated you are very safe. If you even have had one jab you are extremely unlikely to be hospitalised with Covid.

Nearly 4 million of us have been vaccinated.

How about an abundance of positivity, joy and optimism instead of this abundance of caution we so love in Ireland.

We need to get back to normal life.

I think you are wrong with your 4 million.
It might be heading towards 4 million does. But that isn't 4 million people.

(E.g 1m with 2 doses and 2m with one dose is 4m doses but only 3m people)

Micky 32 · 28-06-2021 09:26PM

Deusexmachina wrote: »

We need to get back to normal life.

I think going by all the soundbites and posts on here the last few days it’s looking unlikely that normality is ever going to return to this country. I think at best the vaccines are about saving the government’s arse from overwhelmed hospitals rather than giving our freedoms back.

Personally i have a plan B. I’m giving it until the end of the year and if nothing changes i’m buying a house in Florida in January/February. I’m in a great position to relocate. I originally planned to do that in 20 years when i retire but i have family in the states and if i stay here the government will make it impossible to travel freely back and forth to see them not to mention way more freedom in the states.

It’s becoming more obvious this ****show isn’t going anywhere soon in this country.

Klonker · 28-06-2021 09:29PM

Tenger wrote: »

It's been a known possibility for months now. Hence the mask mandate outdoors in most US states.

This thing isn't black&white. The "15 minute close proximity" guide was just that.
All it takes it a few droplets in the air as you pass a stranger in the street to pass the infection.
In China last May/June there was a study on a guy getting infected on a bus AFTER the carrier got off. He had expelled droplets inside the bus.
Thats the entire rationale for mask wearing in close proximity of others. "Outdoors is safer" means it hot a lower risk, (due to wind and sunshine) NOT that's its got no risk.

Irish Time 4-5 days ago stated 30% of Irish PCR tests are sequenced for variants.
And that 20% of those are Delta.
No indication however what the criteria for sequencing is or if it is random.

Not random, targeted on VOCs and VOIs so percentages can be Skewed which I think is the case with Delta. Good article here on it on the genome sequencing. Warning though its rather long.

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1230774/

Goldengirl · 28-06-2021 10:02PM

Tenger wrote: »

Irish Time 4-5 days ago stated 30% of Irish PCR tests are sequenced for variants.
And that 20% of those are Delta.
No indication however what the criteria for sequencing is or if it is random.

Testing for Covid shows presence or absence of S Gene which forms part of the sequencing .
Alpha variant is known to be S gene absent ,so if 80% of tested cases are found to have no S gene it is presumed that 20% that do are a variant that does contain the S gene , and the most common variant with this circulating is the Delta, atm .
Those tests are then sent for sequencing as well as targeted tests for vocs from MHQ and hot spots .
So while not targeted , and not 100% specific, it is as accurate as they can get in the short term as sequencing takes at least 2 weeks to come back .

ShineOn7 · 28-06-2021 10:05PM

Two very different headlines

Nphet warns Delta variant could infect thousands per day in August leading to a ‘peak of deaths’

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-warns-delta-variant-could-infect-thousands-per-day-in-august-leading-to-a-peak-of-deaths-40591171.html

The modelling for the Delta variant in Ireland shows shocking rises in the worst-case model, which one informant described as “grim and alarming” and another said would be “like an invasion.”

Fatalities and hospitalisations will approach, but not meet, the chaos and harrowing caseload seen in January, ministers are warned.

Versus

Singapore’s COVID plan offers pathway out of lockdowns

We could do worse than follow the example of the city state of Singapore, with a population of 5.7 million and about 20-30 cases every day, which has just set out such a plan. With enough people vaccinated, COVID-19 will be managed like other endemic diseases such as the flu.

Last week three ministers on Singapore’s taskforce on COVID-19 outlined their government’s transition to a new normal. The trio said priority in the next few months will be to prepare Singapore for life with COVID-19 as a recurring, controllable disease.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/singapore-s-covid-plan-offers-pathway-out-of-lockdowns-20210627-p584lx.html

hmmm · 28-06-2021 10:14PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Two very different headlines

That's because they are talking about different things.

We know that once we have enough people vaccinated we will have to live with this. We have a timing problem with Delta which was unfortunate.

ShineOn7 · 28-06-2021 10:20PM

hmmm wrote: »

That's because they are talking about different things.

We know that once we have enough people vaccinated we will have to live with this. We have a timing problem with Delta which was unfortunate.

Oh for sure, I just thought the two scenarios were so contrasting

brickster69 · 28-06-2021 10:21PM

Germany starting

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-idUKKCN2E423T

byhookorbycrook · 28-06-2021 10:25PM

hmmm wrote: »

That's because they are talking about different things.

We know that once we have enough people vaccinated we will have to live with this. We have a timing problem with Delta which was unfortunate.

One thing that will be of concern to those who are older /very medically vulnerable, is that many , like me were prioritised to be vaccinated and was given AZ last March . Got my second the other day . People far less vulnerable were given the more effective Pfizer . Had been hoping that the 2nd dose would be something rather than AZ, but I couldn’t risk waiting .

Unicorn Milk Latte · 28-06-2021 10:28PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

giving our freedoms back.

Personally i have a plan B. I’m giving it until the end of the year and if nothing changes i’m buying a house in Florida in January/February.

Annual number of people killed from gunshots in Florida is over 2,700.

So, not only do you gain the freedom to infect others indiscriminately, you also gain the freedom to shoot and kill them.
Or, of course, the freedom to get shot - that chance is much higher than being killed from Covid in Ireland, even in worst case scenarios.

In Ireland, 'freedom' means not allowing people to infect or shoot others.

28-06-2021 10:32PM

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

One thing that will be of concern to those who are older /very medically vulnerable, is that many , like me were prioritised to be vaccinated and was given AZ last March . Got my second the other day . People far less vulnerable were given the more effective Pfizer . Had been hoping that the 2nd dose would be something rather than AZ, but I couldn’t risk waiting .

You have 2 doses of a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic.

Younger people will now be offered AZ in the weeks ahead.

Be grateful, its good for your mental health.

There will always be people better off and worse than yourself.

Its called life.

agoodpunt · 28-06-2021 11:58PM

worth a look its the delta variant
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-delta-variant-slams-shut-the-reopening-of-israel-to-world/news-story/f02e7b028a898acb2b72db95e56a2385

ShineOn7 · 29-06-2021 12:03AM

Just had another read of the IT article

Where the hell are they getting these figures from? They're fecking terrifying after all we've already been through

The worst-case scenario would potentially see almost 700,000 cases of the virus over July, August and September, with as many as 2,170 deaths as the Delta variant becomes dominant. The most optimistic projection would see 81,000 cases and 165 deaths.

There is an expectation that Nphet will seek a delay of several weeks in reopening indoor hospitality.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/grim-covid-projections-put-opening-of-indoor-hospitality-in-serious-doubt-1.4606220

ShineOn7 · 29-06-2021 12:05AM

agoodpunt wrote: »

worth a look its the delta variant
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-delta-variant-slams-shut-the-reopening-of-israel-to-world/news-story/f02e7b028a898acb2b72db95e56a2385

Subscription only article

What's the gist?

Micky 32 · 29-06-2021 12:12AM

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

Annual number of people killed from gunshots in Florida is over 2,700.

So, not only do you gain the freedom to infect others indiscriminately, you also gain the freedom to shoot and kill them.
Or, of course, the freedom to get shot - that chance is much higher than being killed from Covid in Ireland, even in worst case scenarios.

In Ireland, 'freedom' means not allowing people to infect or shoot others.

I’m not afraid of Covid or guns. I own a gun btw. Oh i’m fully vaccinated aswell ;-)

funnydoggy · 29-06-2021 12:18AM

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

Annual number of people killed from gunshots in Florida is over 2,700.

So, not only do you gain the freedom to infect others indiscriminately, you also gain the freedom to shoot and kill them.
Or, of course, the freedom to get shot - that chance is much higher than being killed from Covid in Ireland, even in worst case scenarios.

In Ireland, 'freedom' means not allowing people to infect or shoot others.

???

porta · 29-06-2021 12:55AM

Woody79 wrote: »

You have 2 doses of a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic.

Younger people will now be offered AZ in the weeks ahead.

Be grateful, its good for your mental health.

There will always be people better off and worse than yourself.

Its called life.

You obviously have no understanding of ‘vulnerable’. If you did, you wouldn’t be giving a dismissive “that’s life” reply.

A healthy 35 year old who gets Covid has a very good chance of a complete recovery.
A 35 year old Type-1 diabetic who gets Covid has a very good chance of winding up seriously ill or even dead.

Vulnerable people are very grateful to receive vaccines as part of what is turning out to be a (mostly) successful vaccine rollout.
They are also conscious that by receiving the AZ, the lesser protection is being given to those with the weakest natural defences.

I suggest that developing some understanding and empathy would be great for your mental health.

29-06-2021 12:59AM

porta wrote: »

You obviously have no understanding of ‘vulnerable’. If you did, you wouldn’t be giving a dismissive “that’s life” reply.

A healthy 35 year old who gets Covid has a very good chance of a complete recovery.
A 35 year old Type-1 diabetic who gets Covid has a very good chance of winding up seriously ill or even dead.

Vulnerable people are very grateful to receive vaccines as part of what is turning out to be a (mostly) successful vaccine rollout.
They are also conscious that by receiving the AZ, the lesser protection is being given to those with the weakest natural defences.

I suggest that developing some understanding and empathy would be great for your mental health.

Got a link by any chance about the increased risk to people with Type 1 diabetes but no other illnesses? Just wondering because you equate 2 different risks and I doubt the 99.5%+ non-fatal rate for healthy people with Covid will be matched up with the death rate for people with Type 1 diabetes with Covid.

29-06-2021 01:09AM

porta wrote: »

You obviously have no understanding of ‘vulnerable’. If you did, you wouldn’t be giving a dismissive “that’s life” reply.

A healthy 35 year old who gets Covid has a very good chance of a complete recovery.
A 35 year old Type-1 diabetic who gets Covid has a very good chance of winding up seriously ill or even dead.

Vulnerable people are very grateful to receive vaccines as part of what is turning out to be a (mostly) successful vaccine rollout.
They are also conscious that by receiving the AZ, the lesser protection is being given to those with the weakest natural defences.

I suggest that developing some understanding and empathy would be great for your mental health.

Real world studies say AZ is just as good as any MRNA.

Empathy for what?

Its just as good.

I got AZ and have no envy to MRNA vaccine holders.

I can understand people who are unvaccinated being envious of
vaccinated people, but brands envy?

Give me a break.

All current vaccines in EU are very good.

Spoilt and entitled come to mind.

Less than 20% of the world population has received 1 dose of any vaccine, never mind 2.

Some of these scientific celebratory media types have been pedaling this scutter re: Good/Bad vaccines.

Dangerous people when we need everyone to take vaccines when available.

ShineOn7 · 29-06-2021 01:24AM

Woody79 wrote: »

Real world studies say AZ is just as good as any MRNA.

Against Delta?

29-06-2021 01:31AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Against Delta?

Just think about it.

Head to head with millions of people in UK similar efficacy.

https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/pfizer-astrazeneca-vaccines-provide-similar-protection-against-symptomatic-covid-19-study-1805037-2021-05-21

Delta studies are tiny as its so new.

This garbage was trotted out with Alpha months back also.

Of course it will be the same.

Its just commonsense.

Small data less reliable (Delta studies to date due to being new)

Large data more reliable.

The real world study is the most reliable vaccine comparision in the world (tens of millions of people) and minute differences.

Goldengirl · 29-06-2021 02:02AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Got a link by any chance about the increased risk to people with Type 1 diabetes but no other illnesses? Just wondering because you equate 2 different risks and I doubt the 99.5%+ non-fatal rate for healthy people with Covid will be matched up with the death rate for people with Type 1 diabetes with Covid.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30272-2/fulltext

How many do ya want ?
100s more on the page that came from !

Very highrisk, as in group 7 or group 4 if not well controlled .

29-06-2021 02:14AM

Goldengirl wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30272-2/fulltext

How many do ya want ?
100s more on the page that came from !

Very highrisk, as in group 7 or group 4 if not well controlled .

Did you read your own link?
According to it no-one under the age of 50 with Type 1 Diabetes has died with Covid in the UK. That's 0. Nada. Zilch. By pure chance you'd expect a couple since it says 544 under the age of 50 have died with Covid and roughly 1 in 200 have Type 1 diabetes.
We were talking about 35 year olds bear in mind.

I seem to recall that last week some numbers came out showing that even the obesity risk factor was pretty damn low unless it coincided with advanced age.

FishOnABike · 29-06-2021 07:20AM

pc7 wrote: »

If they are ‘assuming’ Delta does that mean the % of Delta we are hearing is a guesstimate?

They may be using the "s gene target" from initial PCR test an an indicator of likely Delta variant before full gene sequencing is done.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01390-4

"Researchers have also been able to rapidly track the spread of B.1.617.2 because its genome contains a marker that the dominant B.1.1.7 variant lacks. The presence of this marker — known as the ‘S gene target’ — can be seen in the results of some of the PCR tests used to confirm cases of COVID-19, so researchers can use positive S-target hits as a proxy to quickly map the spread of B.1.617.2, without needing to sequence samples fully.

dominatinMC · 29-06-2021 08:10AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Against Delta?

Yes. Look at the latest PHE report for evidence of this. Both vaccines >90% protection against severe illness.

OwenM · 29-06-2021 09:28AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Just an update, my relative found it difficult to navigate the Covid helpline - they kept getting referred back to the HSE website for information (which states they don't need to self-isolate or even get tested).

So I decided to ring the helpline myself. Spoke to a very helpful lady who checked the situation for me and yes, you do need to self-isolate if you are a close contact of someone who has tested positive for a 'variant of concern' even if you are fully vaccinated.

This is all news to me.

Sounds like you were fed bull****, it directly contradicts the HSE website which has from the beginning been promoted as the 'one source' of truthful advice to counter all the loons and anitvaxers etc.

OwenM · 29-06-2021 09:29AM

dominatinMC wrote: »

Yes. Look at the latest PHE report for evidence of this. Both vaccines >90% protection against severe illness.

Correct:

The Delta variant

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