The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

ShineOn7

I was literally about to start a thread on this, albeit with a "Are you worried about it?" poll - with options like "it'll be grand", "no", "I'm indifferent"

Maybe you can add one?

Personally, no I don't like how this is going in the UK with this variant and things need to be monitored here with it big time

This country's mental health/economy will not handle another lockdown

Atlantic Dawn

In the UK if the rate of infection doubled every day the whole virus would be blown out after 4 weeks, all the damage it could do would be done and dusted.

screamer

Unless we get a serious %age of the population here fully vaccinated, I think we're in for a rough time of it come October again. The delta (indian strain) is now the dominant strain in the UK.
Time will tell as always with this thing, but I'll not be getting rid of my sanitizer/ masks any time soon.

wadacrack

Look what happened in India with this variant. Yes vaccinations will mitigate it but I think sadly it still going to be a significant wave that effects younger people more so. Lockdown fatigue has meant that people have underestimated the risk. Understandable to an extent but this pandemic still isint over sadly. Its very important we keep delta cases as low as possible before we hit about 70% of the population with two doses. We have seen what happened in Chile when they relaxed restrictions too quickly. In spite of much higher vaccination rates they have had to lockdown their capital city as their healthcare system is still really struggling

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

Look what happened in India with this variant.

They didn't have vaccines

wadacrack wrote: »

We have seen what happened in Chile when they relaxed restrictions too quickly. In spite of much higher vaccination rates they have had to lockdown their capital city as their healthcare system is still really struggling

Chile are using Sinovac, as you well know, so we can't be compared to them.

Lumen

https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40311416.html

Delta variant cases doubling every 4.5 days in parts of England, PHE says....Growth rates for Delta cases are high across all parts of the country, it added, with regional estimates for doubling time ranging from 4.5 days to 11.5 days.

Let's take the average growth rate estimate to be a doubling every 8 days.

1% of 350 cases a day is 3.5 cases/day.
3.5 cases a day doubling every 8 days (which is not here) means 1,000 cases per day in....65 days, around mid-August.

Even at 1,000 cases/day your chance of being one of those cases is 1 in 5,000 per day.

That's pretty much a worse case scenario.

The UK currently has around 42% of the total population fully vaccinated.

By the end of July we will have around 52% of the total population fully vaccinated.

Unless there is a massive seeding from GB/NI, we are likely to snuff out the growth with our vaccination programme before the delta variant becomes a major risk.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Continue to follow public health advice appropriate to your incomplete vaccination status and you'll be fine.

TefalBrain

Not worried in the slightest tbh. Vaccines kick it's ass and anyone who wants a vaccine by the winter will have one maybe even by mid September.

Looking forward to a return to normality

ShineOn7

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38NuwkSmv_A

Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca, 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease caused by Delta (Moderna probably similar)

I'm presuming he means both doses give you 88% effectiveness against it

Wibbs

wadacrack wrote: »

Look what happened in India with this variant.

India was always a crock when it came to access to medicine for a huge percentage of the population and long before covid 19. I was only shocked they weren't overwhelmed in the first wave. That's the surprise for me, not the severity of the impact now. Plus if the stats are anything to go by in the UK, those folks of Indian background appeared to be far worse hit by covid than their equivalent native English peers so there might be a genetic component to things. That Black folks in western nations were harder hit, particularly in the US was much less a shock. The poorer always do worse in a crisis, being more likely to be undernourished, working frontline minimum wage jobs, never mind in a country where medical access is far more economically based and biased, but the Indian people in the UK were just as likely to be middle class professionals succumbing to it.

amandstu

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I was literally about to start a thread on this, albeit with a "Are you worried about it?" poll - with options like "it'll be grand", "no", "I'm indifferent"

Maybe you can add one?

Personally, no I don't like how this is going in the UK with this variant and things need to be monitored here with it big time

This country's mental health/economy will not handle another lockdown

.Don"t think I can add a poll now(don't like them ,anyway really)

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

They didn't have vaccines



Chile are using Sinovac, as you well know, so we can't be compared to them.

Sinovac is still pretty effective, 67% or so. I did mention that vaccines will mitigate the risk too. This variant will transmit too quickly in the Uk to prevent a significant third wave. The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination.

Dr. Bre

wadacrack wrote: »

Look what happened in India with this variant. Yes vaccinations will mitigate it but I think sadly it still going to be a significant wave that effects younger people more so. Lockdown fatigue has meant that people have underestimated the risk. Understandable to an extent but this pandemic still isint over sadly. Its very important we keep delta cases as low as possible before we hit about 70% of the population with two doses. We have seen what happened in Chile when they relaxed restrictions too quickly. In spite of much higher vaccination rates they have had to lockdown their capital city as their healthcare system is still really struggling

What happened in India was a population living on top of each other / no social distancing .

The goalposts have shifted many times now. Finish jabbing people and time to move on.

We could lockdown for the next few decades if we constantly want to worry about the next new variant/new illness/new strain.

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

Sinovac is still pretty effective, 67% or so. I did mention that vaccines will mitigate the risk too. This variant will transmit too quickly in the Uk to prevent a significant third wave. The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination.

And you know this how exactly?

wadacrack

Dr. Bre wrote: »

What happened in India was a population living on top of each other / no social distancing .

I'm not sure. They didn't have significant waves last year. Clearly this new variant is the reason. Its been studied for weeks in the UK and the data is very clear this is a more serious virus. At the start of this in Europe I remember people claimed silar about Italy, condensed multi generational houses, living conditions ,they kiss when greeting one another etc.

Dempo1

The UK Numbers are worrying to be honest, they've more than tripled in a week, over 8000 cases today. Whilst there's a lot of talk about the vacinne effect and its a positive aspect of the debate, The UK is leagues ahead of us in terms of its roll out and yet massive increase in numbers, I get Vacination more about protecting than stopping spread of Covid, its those who've not been vaccinated I'd be concerned for. NI also reported the the new cases in weeks and their Health minister warned new case numbers could 1000 a day by July, that is truly alarming.

I think the real elephant in the room is a new variant that current Vacinnes can't protect against and by all accounts this is looking increasingly likely along with annual booster shots required.

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

I'm not sure. They didn't have significant waves last year. Clearly this new variant is the reason. Its been studied for weeks in the UK and the data is very clear this is a more serious virus. At the start of this in Europe I remember people claimed silar about Italy, condensed multi generational houses, living conditions ,they kiss when greeting one another etc.

"At the start of this in Europe"

Sorry but how does that have any relevance whatsoever in June 2021???

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

And you know this how exactly?

Every medical expert in the UK has stated that its the start of a third wave. I listen to them not opinions with a positive bias.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The goalposts have shifted many times now. Finish jabbing people and time to move on.

We could lockdown for the next few decades if we constantly want to worry about the next new variant/new illness/new strain.

People seemingly have forgotten about the annual flu, and cyclical new variants. Vaccines kept pace with that, Covid is no different. Delta does not pose a significant threat, escalation in cases perhaps but not translating into more hospitalisations as the most vulnerable are now protected. Boosters are there as a contingency.

brickster69

How many tests are being carried out per day / week and how many of those are sequenced in Ireland ?

Tyrone212

Lumen wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40311416.html



Let's take the average growth rate estimate to be a doubling every 8 days.

1% of 350 cases a day is 3.5 cases/day.
3.5 cases a day doubling every 8 days (which is not here) means 1,000 cases per day in....65 days, around mid-August.

Even at 1,000 cases/day your chance of being one of those cases is 1 in 5,000 per day.

That's pretty much a worse case scenario.

The UK currently has around 42% of the total population fully vaccinated.

By the end of July we will have around 52% of the total population fully vaccinated.

Unless there is a massive seeding from GB/NI, we are likely to snuff out the growth with our vaccination programme before the delta variant becomes a major risk.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Continue to follow public health advice appropriate to your incomplete vaccination status and you'll be fine.

The north is averaging less than 100 cases per day for a long time. Delta is now 25% of new cases reported and a report yesterday stated that it could result in 1200 new cases daily by the first of July. Emphasis on could. So many 60 year olds only have one dose as well. I'm not as optimistic as I was last week.

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

Every medical expert in the UK has stated that its the start of a third wave. I listen to them not opinions with a positive bias.

"The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination"

Could you provide your source for this please? Thanks

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

"At the start of this in Europe"

Sorry but how does that have any relevance whatsoever in June 2021???

It has relevance as the post I quoted claimed that living conditions played a huge part in India's recent wave. Similar was claimed to the case in Italy and that it wouldnt be as bad in Ireland and the UK. So Yes its relevant.

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

It has relevance as the post I quoted claimed that living conditions played a huge part in India's recent wave. Similar was claimed to the case in Italy and that it wouldnt be as bad in Ireland and the UK. So Yes its relevant.

We have vaccines now so April 2020 has precisely zero relevance now.

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

"The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination"

Could you provide your source for this please? Thanks

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351627445620738

Dempo1

wadacrack wrote: »

I'm not sure. They didn't have significant waves last year. Clearly this new variant is the reason. Its been studied for weeks in the UK and the data is very clear this is a more serious virus. At the start of this in Europe I remember people claimed silar about Italy, condensed multi generational houses, living conditions ,they kiss when greeting one another etc.

I have to agree, there was little or no societal changes in India, life pretty much carried on albeit there was a lot of testing. Something seriously changed causing 100"s of thousand new cases daily and for weeks. Their health system is appalling and this too had not changed and yet we saw nothing like the images over the past 2 months, last year. There was one event that did not help, the massive hindu festival but I certainly think new variants caused the shocking surge witnessed recently

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

We have vaccines now so April 2020 has precisely zero relevance now.

Your not really comprehending the post in the proper context. Read it again

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351627445620738

He's a data journalist

Could you provide a real source please? Earlier you claimed "every medical expert in the UK" was predicting this. That lad is not a medical expert.

Where do you distinguish between covid and the seasonal flu? Both exact same symptoms.

If there's a new variant then where not talking about covid 19 anymore?

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

Your not really comprehending the post in the proper context. Read it again

I'm "comprehending it" just fine thanks. The issue is it has no relevance.

Wanderer78

tommybrees wrote:

Where do you distinguish between covid and the seasonal flu? Both exact same symptoms.

Only that they dont!

tommybrees wrote:

If there's a new variant then where not talking about covid 19 anymore?

Say wha?

wadacrack

Deeper Blue wrote: »

He's a data journalist

Could you provide a real source please? Earlier you claimed "every medical expert in the UK" was predicting this. That lad is not a medical expert.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402352440507351050

Micky 32

wadacrack wrote: »

I'm not sure. They didn't have significant waves last year. Clearly this new variant is the reason. Its been studied for weeks in the UK and the data is very clear this is a more serious virus. At the start of this in Europe I remember people claimed silar about Italy, condensed multi generational houses, living conditions ,they kiss when greeting one another etc.

And yet it’s only the UK that are complaining about it. It’s in most other countries for a couple months now and there’s nothing sinister going on. Cases worlwide dropping nicely.

Its dangerous yes
But stopped by the same measures as in march 2020
Wash your hands
Wear your mask
Keep your distance
Its not long until herd immunity
Don't give it any headway and we win our freedom back

Its biggest friend is apathy
Do not fall at the last hurdle please!

thegills

amandstu wrote:

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

And you'll only be 60% protected after 2nd jab.

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

I think the real elephant in the room is a new variant that current Vacinnes can't protect against and by all accounts this is looking increasingly likely along with annual booster shots required.

Where are you getting this shyte from?! The Daily Mail? The vaccines protect by reducing your chances of ending up in hospital by 95% against the so-called delta variant.

I’m guessing forever lockdowns/restrictions? Right? Will that keep you happy along with a few others on this thread? I hate to disappoint you but we are on our way out of this.

Marine Layer

Marine Layer wrote: »

Its dangerous yes
But stopped by the same measures as in march 2020
Wash your hands
Wear your mask
Keep your distance
Its not long until herd immunity
Don't give it any headway and we win our freedom back

Its biggest friend is apathy
Do not fall at the last hurdle please!

Can we cease with this "same measures as March 2020" palaver, it's wholly dishonest. Over 3 million vaccines are now in arms, serving as the ultimate game changer. "Win our freedom back", we're not caged animals for the edification of Tony Holohan.

Lumen

Deleted User wrote: »

Can we cease with this "same measures as March 2020" palaver, it's wholly dishonest. Over 3 million vaccines are now in arms, serving as the ultimate game changer.

Only a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated. The remainder should be taking reasonable precautions.

TefalBrain

Lumen wrote: »

Only a quarter of the population is fully vaccinated. The remainder should be taking reasonable precautions.

The vulnerable quarter that matters.

Life must go on now.

Beasty

I suspect it's pretty inevitable this will grab hold here, but with the vast majority of the vulnerable already vaccinated and the vaccination programme continuing to expand I would hope that although numbers will likely increase the numbers in hospital and intensive care will remain very manageable.

What I'm wondering is how NPHET will react to increasing infection numbers with little impact on those who are badly affected. Will they try and push back some of the opening up dates or will they take the view that it's not necessary given how much our population is already protected. I do have a concern that they will not need much to start looking to hold back some of the proposals to open up.

Dempo1

Micky 32 wrote: »

Where are you getting this shyte from?! The Daily Mail? The vaccines protect by reducing your chances of ending up in hospital by 95% against the so-called delta variant.

I’m guessing forever lockdowns/restrictions? Right? Will that keep you happy along with a few others on this thread? I hate to disappoint you but we are on our way out of this.

Very elegant and predictable hysterical response when anyone dares not stick to your narrative.

Take a deep breath, go back to my OP, read it slowly (if it helps), I've not once discussed lockdowns, have acknowledged Vacinnes protect, not stop new cases but equally have ligitimately discussed new strains and their potency and that fact Ireland is nowhere near where it needs to be to offer satisfactory protection to its population. I don't need to read the daily mail (which I don't), I listen to the science, nothing more nothing less. As an aside and slightly off topic, you are aware Hospitals remain crippled by the cyber attack and are in no position to handle any rise in cases, perhaps this too has escaped you.

We've opened Society and that's fantastic, does it really offend you for others to have an opinion whilst expressing caution and concern, if it does, I'm truly sorry.

Potential requirement for booster shots has been openly discussed by numerous experts both here and worldwide, potential being the operative word

El_Duderino 09

Beasty wrote: »

I suspect it's pretty inevitable this will grab hold here, but with the vast majority of the vulnerable already vaccinated and the vaccination programme continuing to expand I would hope that although numbers will likely increase the numbers in hospital and intensive care will remain very manageable.

What I'm wondering is how NPHET will react to increasing infection numbers with little impact on those who are badly affected. Will they try and push back some of the opening up dates or will they take the view that it's not necessary given how much our population is already protected. I do have a concern that they will not need much to start looking to hold back some of the proposals to open up.

The UK is pretty cavalier and they're going to delay their reopening. Granted they're at a different stage of the vaccine rollout, Delta wave and reopening stage.

But you know how NPHET will react. If its necessary to reschedule the reopening, that's what they'll do. They certainly won't speed up reopening based on this new variant. But asking surprised or acting like the outcome is totally unknowable or unreasonable, is silly.

TefalBrain

I'm convinced there is a certain cohort on this site itching for this variant to shut things down again. I'd go as far as to guess some are even excited over it.

Dempo1

TefalBrain wrote: »

I'm convinced there is a certain cohort on this site itching for this variant to shut things down again. I'd go as far as to guess some are even excited over it.

Unfortunately there is definitely a cohort on this site who take instant offence at debate and opinions that differ from theirs. Some pretty shocking stuff has been posted, from Doctor Death to the Pandemic a hoax.

Unfortunately civil debate descends into very personal attacks and outlandish claims so I predict this thread won't survive to long. It took less than 2 posts by me for the sillyness to start, but its going to be a beautiful weekend and that will be my focus, whilst taking reasonable precautions (even that will offend some)

Mister Vain

I'm more concerned about ongoing future mutations and possible variants that haven't been discovered yet.

Dempo1

Mister Vain wrote: »

I'm more concerned ongoing future mutations and possible variants that haven't been discovered yet.

Me too but don't say it too loud, you'll be accused of being a lockdown merchant

Feria40

Clearly its more transmissible but lads don't wet the bed yet.

FT a few days ago:

"Health secretary Matt Hancock told the House of Commons that out of 12,383 cases of the Delta variant recorded until June 3, 126 were in hospital, or just 1 per cent. Of those admitted, 83 were unvaccinated, 28 had received one jab and just three had had both doses. “The jabs are working,” Hancock said"

Mehole says 70% of the adult population will be Fully vacinated by end of July.

For sure exercise some caution but on the whole chill the beans.

Beasty

Mister Vain wrote: »

I'm more concerned about ongoing future mutations and possible variants that haven't been discovered yet.

There are already thousand of variants/mutations. Only a handful are of concern. In all cases the vaccines are expected to offer some protection against both catching the variant, but also the severity of any symptoms

Micky 32

Dempo1 wrote: »

Me too but don't say it too loud, you'll be accused of being a lockdown merchant

Ok. You think a variant is going to come along that will evade vaccines( there’s no evidence there will). So i’m curious, what would your suggestion be to do going forward?

astrofool

I don't think this will be an issue for those getting vaccinated, as the disease becomes endemic, it will become an issue for those who aren't getting jabbed, especially that small% of older groups that didn't get it. I'd feel worst for those who have immune system disorders who don't really have a way out.