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The Delta variant

  • #2
    Registered Users Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭ amandstu


    How might this play out?

    Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

    Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

    Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

    EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days


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Comments

  • #2


    I was literally about to start a thread on this, albeit with a "Are you worried about it?" poll - with options like "it'll be grand", "no", "I'm indifferent"

    Maybe you can add one?

    Personally, no I don't like how this is going in the UK with this variant and things need to be monitored here with it big time

    This country's mental health/economy will not handle another lockdown


  • #2


    In the UK if the rate of infection doubled every day the whole virus would be blown out after 4 weeks, all the damage it could do would be done and dusted.


  • #2


    Unless we get a serious %age of the population here fully vaccinated, I think we're in for a rough time of it come October again. The delta (indian strain) is now the dominant strain in the UK.
    Time will tell as always with this thing, but I'll not be getting rid of my sanitizer/ masks any time soon.


  • #2


    Look what happened in India with this variant. Yes vaccinations will mitigate it but I think sadly it still going to be a significant wave that effects younger people more so. Lockdown fatigue has meant that people have underestimated the risk. Understandable to an extent but this pandemic still isint over sadly. Its very important we keep delta cases as low as possible before we hit about 70% of the population with two doses. We have seen what happened in Chile when they relaxed restrictions too quickly. In spite of much higher vaccination rates they have had to lockdown their capital city as their healthcare system is still really struggling


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Look what happened in India with this variant.

    They didn't have vaccines
    wadacrack wrote: »
    We have seen what happened in Chile when they relaxed restrictions too quickly. In spite of much higher vaccination rates they have had to lockdown their capital city as their healthcare system is still really struggling

    Chile are using Sinovac, as you well know, so we can't be compared to them.


  • #2


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40311416.html
    Delta variant cases doubling every 4.5 days in parts of England, PHE says....Growth rates for Delta cases are high across all parts of the country, it added, with regional estimates for doubling time ranging from 4.5 days to 11.5 days.

    Let's take the average growth rate estimate to be a doubling every 8 days.

    1% of 350 cases a day is 3.5 cases/day.
    3.5 cases a day doubling every 8 days (which is not here) means 1,000 cases per day in....65 days, around mid-August.

    Even at 1,000 cases/day your chance of being one of those cases is 1 in 5,000 per day.

    That's pretty much a worse case scenario.

    The UK currently has around 42% of the total population fully vaccinated.

    By the end of July we will have around 52% of the total population fully vaccinated.

    Unless there is a massive seeding from GB/NI, we are likely to snuff out the growth with our vaccination programme before the delta variant becomes a major risk.

    I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Continue to follow public health advice appropriate to your incomplete vaccination status and you'll be fine.


  • #2


    Not worried in the slightest tbh. Vaccines kick it's ass and anyone who wants a vaccine by the winter will have one maybe even by mid September.

    Looking forward to a return to normality


  • #2




    Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca, 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease caused by Delta (Moderna probably similar)

    I'm presuming he means both doses give you 88% effectiveness against it


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Look what happened in India with this variant.
    India was always a crock when it came to access to medicine for a huge percentage of the population and long before covid 19. I was only shocked they weren't overwhelmed in the first wave. That's the surprise for me, not the severity of the impact now. Plus if the stats are anything to go by in the UK, those folks of Indian background appeared to be far worse hit by covid than their equivalent native English peers so there might be a genetic component to things. That Black folks in western nations were harder hit, particularly in the US was much less a shock. The poorer always do worse in a crisis, being more likely to be undernourished, working frontline minimum wage jobs, never mind in a country where medical access is far more economically based and biased, but the Indian people in the UK were just as likely to be middle class professionals succumbing to it.

    Few enough were innocent in the past, few enough are innocent in the present, we just don’t know why yet.



  • #2


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    I was literally about to start a thread on this, albeit with a "Are you worried about it?" poll - with options like "it'll be grand", "no", "I'm indifferent"

    Maybe you can add one?

    Personally, no I don't like how this is going in the UK with this variant and things need to be monitored here with it big time

    This country's mental health/economy will not handle another lockdown
    .Don"t think I can add a poll now(don't like them ,anyway really)


  • #2


    They didn't have vaccines



    Chile are using Sinovac, as you well know, so we can't be compared to them.

    Sinovac is still pretty effective, 67% or so. I did mention that vaccines will mitigate the risk too. This variant will transmit too quickly in the Uk to prevent a significant third wave. The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination.


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Look what happened in India with this variant. Yes vaccinations will mitigate it but I think sadly it still going to be a significant wave that effects younger people more so. Lockdown fatigue has meant that people have underestimated the risk. Understandable to an extent but this pandemic still isint over sadly. Its very important we keep delta cases as low as possible before we hit about 70% of the population with two doses. We have seen what happened in Chile when they relaxed restrictions too quickly. In spite of much higher vaccination rates they have had to lockdown their capital city as their healthcare system is still really struggling

    What happened in India was a population living on top of each other / no social distancing .


  • #2


    The goalposts have shifted many times now. Finish jabbing people and time to move on.

    We could lockdown for the next few decades if we constantly want to worry about the next new variant/new illness/new strain.


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Sinovac is still pretty effective, 67% or so. I did mention that vaccines will mitigate the risk too. This variant will transmit too quickly in the Uk to prevent a significant third wave. The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination.


    And you know this how exactly?


  • #2


    Dr. Bre wrote: »
    What happened in India was a population living on top of each other / no social distancing .

    I'm not sure. They didn't have significant waves last year. Clearly this new variant is the reason. Its been studied for weeks in the UK and the data is very clear this is a more serious virus. At the start of this in Europe I remember people claimed silar about Italy, condensed multi generational houses, living conditions ,they kiss when greeting one another etc.


  • #2


    The UK Numbers are worrying to be honest, they've more than tripled in a week, over 8000 cases today. Whilst there's a lot of talk about the vacinne effect and its a positive aspect of the debate, The UK is leagues ahead of us in terms of its roll out and yet massive increase in numbers, I get Vacination more about protecting than stopping spread of Covid, its those who've not been vaccinated I'd be concerned for. NI also reported the the new cases in weeks and their Health minister warned new case numbers could 1000 a day by July, that is truly alarming.

    I think the real elephant in the room is a new variant that current Vacinnes can't protect against and by all accounts this is looking increasingly likely along with annual booster shots required.


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    I'm not sure. They didn't have significant waves last year. Clearly this new variant is the reason. Its been studied for weeks in the UK and the data is very clear this is a more serious virus. At the start of this in Europe I remember people claimed silar about Italy, condensed multi generational houses, living conditions ,they kiss when greeting one another etc.

    "At the start of this in Europe"

    Sorry but how does that have any relevance whatsoever in June 2021???


  • #2


    And you know this how exactly?

    Every medical expert in the UK has stated that its the start of a third wave. I listen to them not opinions with a positive bias.


  • #2


    The goalposts have shifted many times now. Finish jabbing people and time to move on.

    We could lockdown for the next few decades if we constantly want to worry about the next new variant/new illness/new strain.

    People seemingly have forgotten about the annual flu, and cyclical new variants. Vaccines kept pace with that, Covid is no different. Delta does not pose a significant threat, escalation in cases perhaps but not translating into more hospitalisations as the most vulnerable are now protected. Boosters are there as a contingency.


  • #2


    How many tests are being carried out per day / week and how many of those are sequenced in Ireland ?


  • #2


    Lumen wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40311416.html



    Let's take the average growth rate estimate to be a doubling every 8 days.

    1% of 350 cases a day is 3.5 cases/day.
    3.5 cases a day doubling every 8 days (which is not here) means 1,000 cases per day in....65 days, around mid-August.

    Even at 1,000 cases/day your chance of being one of those cases is 1 in 5,000 per day.

    That's pretty much a worse case scenario.

    The UK currently has around 42% of the total population fully vaccinated.

    By the end of July we will have around 52% of the total population fully vaccinated.

    Unless there is a massive seeding from GB/NI, we are likely to snuff out the growth with our vaccination programme before the delta variant becomes a major risk.

    I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. Continue to follow public health advice appropriate to your incomplete vaccination status and you'll be fine.

    The north is averaging less than 100 cases per day for a long time. Delta is now 25% of new cases reported and a report yesterday stated that it could result in 1200 new cases daily by the first of July. Emphasis on could. So many 60 year olds only have one dose as well. I'm not as optimistic as I was last week.


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Every medical expert in the UK has stated that its the start of a third wave. I listen to them not opinions with a positive bias.

    "The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination"

    Could you provide your source for this please? Thanks


  • #2


    "At the start of this in Europe"

    Sorry but how does that have any relevance whatsoever in June 2021???

    It has relevance as the post I quoted claimed that living conditions played a huge part in India's recent wave. Similar was claimed to the case in Italy and that it wouldnt be as bad in Ireland and the UK. So Yes its relevant.


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    It has relevance as the post I quoted claimed that living conditions played a huge part in India's recent wave. Similar was claimed to the case in Italy and that it wouldnt be as bad in Ireland and the UK. So Yes its relevant.


    We have vaccines now so April 2020 has precisely zero relevance now.


  • #2


    "The scale of infection will be too high in spite of vaccination"

    Could you provide your source for this please? Thanks

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1402351627445620738


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    I'm not sure. They didn't have significant waves last year. Clearly this new variant is the reason. Its been studied for weeks in the UK and the data is very clear this is a more serious virus. At the start of this in Europe I remember people claimed silar about Italy, condensed multi generational houses, living conditions ,they kiss when greeting one another etc.

    I have to agree, there was little or no societal changes in India, life pretty much carried on albeit there was a lot of testing. Something seriously changed causing 100"s of thousand new cases daily and for weeks. Their health system is appalling and this too had not changed and yet we saw nothing like the images over the past 2 months, last year. There was one event that did not help, the massive hindu festival but I certainly think new variants caused the shocking surge witnessed recently


  • #2


    We have vaccines now so April 2020 has precisely zero relevance now.

    Your not really comprehending the post in the proper context. Read it again


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »

    He's a data journalist

    Could you provide a real source please? Earlier you claimed "every medical expert in the UK" was predicting this. That lad is not a medical expert.


  • #2


    Where do you distinguish between covid and the seasonal flu? Both exact same symptoms.

    If there's a new variant then where not talking about covid 19 anymore?


  • #2


    wadacrack wrote: »
    Your not really comprehending the post in the proper context. Read it again


    I'm "comprehending it" just fine thanks. The issue is it has no relevance.


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