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The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

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ShineOn7

Just had another read of the IT article

Where the hell are they getting these figures from? They're fecking terrifying after all we've already been through

The worst-case scenario would potentially see almost 700,000 cases of the virus over July, August and September, with as many as 2,170 deaths as the Delta variant becomes dominant. The most optimistic projection would see 81,000 cases and 165 deaths.

There is an expectation that Nphet will seek a delay of several weeks in reopening indoor hospitality.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/grim-covid-projections-put-opening-of-indoor-hospitality-in-serious-doubt-1.4606220

agoodpunt

worth a look its the delta variant
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-delta-variant-slams-shut-the-reopening-of-israel-to-world/news-story/f02e7b028a898acb2b72db95e56a2385

[Deleted User]

byhookorbycrook wrote: »

One thing that will be of concern to those who are older /very medically vulnerable, is that many , like me were prioritised to be vaccinated and was given AZ last March . Got my second the other day . People far less vulnerable were given the more effective Pfizer . Had been hoping that the 2nd dose would be something rather than AZ, but I couldn’t risk waiting .

You have 2 doses of a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic.

Younger people will now be offered AZ in the weeks ahead.

Be grateful, its good for your mental health.

There will always be people better off and worse than yourself.

Its called life.

Unicorn Milk Latte

Micky 32 wrote: »

giving our freedoms back.

Personally i have a plan B. I’m giving it until the end of the year and if nothing changes i’m buying a house in Florida in January/February.

Annual number of people killed from gunshots in Florida is over 2,700.

So, not only do you gain the freedom to infect others indiscriminately, you also gain the freedom to shoot and kill them.
Or, of course, the freedom to get shot - that chance is much higher than being killed from Covid in Ireland, even in worst case scenarios.

In Ireland, 'freedom' means not allowing people to infect or shoot others.

byhookorbycrook

hmmm wrote: »

That's because they are talking about different things.

We know that once we have enough people vaccinated we will have to live with this. We have a timing problem with Delta which was unfortunate.

One thing that will be of concern to those who are older /very medically vulnerable, is that many , like me were prioritised to be vaccinated and was given AZ last March . Got my second the other day . People far less vulnerable were given the more effective Pfizer . Had been hoping that the 2nd dose would be something rather than AZ, but I couldn’t risk waiting .

brickster69

Germany starting

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-idUKKCN2E423T

ShineOn7

hmmm wrote: »

That's because they are talking about different things.

We know that once we have enough people vaccinated we will have to live with this. We have a timing problem with Delta which was unfortunate.

Oh for sure, I just thought the two scenarios were so contrasting

hmmm

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Two very different headlines

That's because they are talking about different things.

We know that once we have enough people vaccinated we will have to live with this. We have a timing problem with Delta which was unfortunate.

ShineOn7

Two very different headlines

Nphet warns Delta variant could infect thousands per day in August leading to a ‘peak of deaths’

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/nphet-warns-delta-variant-could-infect-thousands-per-day-in-august-leading-to-a-peak-of-deaths-40591171.html

The modelling for the Delta variant in Ireland shows shocking rises in the worst-case model, which one informant described as “grim and alarming” and another said would be “like an invasion.”

Fatalities and hospitalisations will approach, but not meet, the chaos and harrowing caseload seen in January, ministers are warned.

Versus

Singapore’s COVID plan offers pathway out of lockdowns

We could do worse than follow the example of the city state of Singapore, with a population of 5.7 million and about 20-30 cases every day, which has just set out such a plan. With enough people vaccinated, COVID-19 will be managed like other endemic diseases such as the flu.

Last week three ministers on Singapore’s taskforce on COVID-19 outlined their government’s transition to a new normal. The trio said priority in the next few months will be to prepare Singapore for life with COVID-19 as a recurring, controllable disease.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/singapore-s-covid-plan-offers-pathway-out-of-lockdowns-20210627-p584lx.html

Goldengirl

Tenger wrote: »

Irish Time 4-5 days ago stated 30% of Irish PCR tests are sequenced for variants.
And that 20% of those are Delta.
No indication however what the criteria for sequencing is or if it is random.

Testing for Covid shows presence or absence of S Gene which forms part of the sequencing .
Alpha variant is known to be S gene absent ,so if 80% of tested cases are found to have no S gene it is presumed that 20% that do are a variant that does contain the S gene , and the most common variant with this circulating is the Delta, atm .
Those tests are then sent for sequencing as well as targeted tests for vocs from MHQ and hot spots .
So while not targeted , and not 100% specific, it is as accurate as they can get in the short term as sequencing takes at least 2 weeks to come back .

Klonker

Tenger wrote: »

It's been a known possibility for months now. Hence the mask mandate outdoors in most US states.

This thing isn't black&white. The "15 minute close proximity" guide was just that.
All it takes it a few droplets in the air as you pass a stranger in the street to pass the infection.
In China last May/June there was a study on a guy getting infected on a bus AFTER the carrier got off. He had expelled droplets inside the bus.
Thats the entire rationale for mask wearing in close proximity of others. "Outdoors is safer" means it hot a lower risk, (due to wind and sunshine) NOT that's its got no risk.

Irish Time 4-5 days ago stated 30% of Irish PCR tests are sequenced for variants.
And that 20% of those are Delta.
No indication however what the criteria for sequencing is or if it is random.

Not random, targeted on VOCs and VOIs so percentages can be Skewed which I think is the case with Delta. Good article here on it on the genome sequencing. Warning though its rather long.

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1230774/

Micky 32

Deusexmachina wrote: »

We need to get back to normal life.

I think going by all the soundbites and posts on here the last few days it’s looking unlikely that normality is ever going to return to this country. I think at best the vaccines are about saving the government’s arse from overwhelmed hospitals rather than giving our freedoms back.

Personally i have a plan B. I’m giving it until the end of the year and if nothing changes i’m buying a house in Florida in January/February. I’m in a great position to relocate. I originally planned to do that in 20 years when i retire but i have family in the states and if i stay here the government will make it impossible to travel freely back and forth to see them not to mention way more freedom in the states.

It’s becoming more obvious this ****show isn’t going anywhere soon in this country.

Donald Trump

Deusexmachina wrote: »

Spare me the fear. If you are fully vaccinated you are very safe. If you even have had one jab you are extremely unlikely to be hospitalised with Covid.

Nearly 4 million of us have been vaccinated.

How about an abundance of positivity, joy and optimism instead of this abundance of caution we so love in Ireland.

We need to get back to normal life.

I think you are wrong with your 4 million.
It might be heading towards 4 million does. But that isn't 4 million people.

(E.g 1m with 2 doses and 2m with one dose is 4m doses but only 3m people)

hmmm

Deusexmachina wrote: »

Spare me the fear. If you are fully vaccinated you are very safe. If you even have had one jab you are extremely unlikely to be hospitalised with Covid.

Nearly 4 million of us have been vaccinated.

That's what I said, I don't know where you are getting "fear" from.

4 million doses. That's not 4 million people.

[Deleted User]

Stheno wrote: »

Takes 3 weeks to confirm genome sequencing

If you'd told me a year ago I would know the term genome sequencing I'd have thought you were insane

You can get a fair idea without waiting. Alpha can be easily identified due to the missing S-gene which shows up as negative on PCR. Any tests that shows up as positive is very likely Delta

Deusexmachina

hmmm wrote: »

The data is a bit unclear at the moment as to how much risk there is of vaccinated people transmitting Delta. Being vaccinated you're largely protected yourself, but they don't want you wandering around potentially spreading it. I can understand why they're being very cautious, and also they're under a lot of pressure dealing with something which is very new and not very well understood.

Spare me the fear. If you are fully vaccinated you are very safe. If you even have had one jab you are extremely unlikely to be hospitalised with Covid.

Nearly 4 million of us have been vaccinated.

How about an abundance of positivity, joy and optimism instead of this abundance of caution we so love in Ireland.

We need to get back to normal life.

alibab

My younger son who caught it first , spent 1 hour outdoors in garden with 5 others . The person he got it off they had 1 encounter the whole hour my son never went inside I was there . I took a photo of them both he put his arm around my sons shoulder that was the only contact made outdoors . Everyone else there tested negative bar my son who had direct physical contact be it for max 1 minute outside.

hmmm

Stheno wrote: »

They also were not wearing masks, no?

Yes, no masks.

alibab

Also neither of my sons have loss of taste or smell . Both had high temperatures, body aches and pains and upper respiratory. One has sore throat and diarrhea also . Younger not as bad . 17 year old sicker more symptoms and says when paracetamol and neurofen step working he feel horrendous. Dizzy spells also . Both have full taste and smell

Stheno

hmmm wrote: »

The 5-10 second transmission in Australia was definitely indoors. But they have CCTV evidence showing that the people weren't lying, and it was a quick encounter.

They also were not wearing masks, no?

hmmm

Woody79 wrote: »

Austrailia struggling to hold on now.

Is worrying how transmissable now.

Surely you cant get it from passing someone on the street?

The 5-10 second transmission in Australia was definitely indoors. But they have CCTV evidence showing that the people weren't lying, and it was a quick encounter. Maybe that person just got really unlucky, but you can understand why it has spooked them.

hmmm

alibab wrote: »

It was clear the rules are different for delta and being Vaccinated means nothing.

The data is a bit unclear at the moment as to how much risk there is of vaccinated people transmitting Delta. Being vaccinated you're largely protected yourself, but they don't want you wandering around potentially spreading it. I can understand why they're being very cautious, and also they're under a lot of pressure dealing with something which is very new and not very well understood.

Tenger

hmmm wrote: »

.........
The thing that I've found incredible about Delta is the Australian contact tracing results. They have two people passing, on CCTV, and in the space of about 5-10 seconds the other person got infected. We haven't seen this before.
...... .

It's been a known possibility for months now. Hence the mask mandate outdoors in most US states.

This thing isn't black&white. The "15 minute close proximity" guide was just that.
All it takes it a few droplets in the air as you pass a stranger in the street to pass the infection.
In China last May/June there was a study on a guy getting infected on a bus AFTER the carrier got off. He had expelled droplets inside the bus.
Thats the entire rationale for mask wearing in close proximity of others. "Outdoors is safer" means it hot a lower risk, (due to wind and sunshine) NOT that's its got no risk.

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

Only a percentage of positive PCR tests are sequenced to determine the variant. AFAIK, the UK is leading in Europe regarding how much they sequence, Denmark seems to be sequencing a lot, in Germany, around 12% are sequenced (the only definite number I could find..).
.......

Irish Time 4-5 days ago stated 30% of Irish PCR tests are sequenced for variants.
And that 20% of those are Delta.
No indication however what the criteria for sequencing is or if it is random.

[Deleted User]

hmmm wrote: »

If the reports about NIAC is true, looks like it's going to be a mad dash to get as many double doses of vaccines out as quickly as possible over the next few weeks. Lots of J&J will help too.

The thing that I've found incredible about Delta is the Australian contact tracing results. They have two people passing, on CCTV, and in the space of about 5-10 seconds the other person got infected. We haven't seen this before.

I'm not really concerned about people who have been vaccinated and all this talk of reduced protection is a bit of a red herring as you've still got great protection against severe disease.

Public Health are working overtime to contact trace Delta outbreaks and are doing a great job of keeping it suppressed, but they need us to do our bit too - for a little while longer.

Austrailia struggling to hold on now.

Is worrying how transmissable now.

Surely you cant get it from passing someone on the street?

alibab

I posted pages back that my son was confirmed delta variant from a specific outbreak. Originally I was told to restrict movements to get a sudden phone call 24 hours later telling me to go into full isolation. His isolation was also increased from 10 to 14 days . It was clear the rules are different for delta and being Vaccinated means nothing .

My older son had a negative on day 5 and has now tested positive day 7 so now 2 out of 3 here positive. I am negative still Vaccinated .

hmmm

If the reports about NIAC is true, looks like it's going to be a mad dash to get as many double doses of vaccines out as quickly as possible over the next few weeks. Lots of J&J will help too.

The thing that I've found incredible about Delta is the Australian contact tracing results. They have two people passing, on CCTV, and in the space of about 5-10 seconds the other person got infected. We haven't seen this before.

I'm not really concerned about people who have been vaccinated and all this talk of reduced protection is a bit of a red herring as you've still got great protection against severe disease.

Public Health are working overtime to contact trace Delta outbreaks and are doing a great job of keeping it suppressed, but they need us to do our bit too - for a little while longer.

Unicorn Milk Latte

Only a percentage of positive PCR tests are sequenced to determine the variant. AFAIK, the UK is leading in Europe regarding how much they sequence, Denmark seems to be sequencing a lot, in Germany, around 12% are sequenced (the only definite number I could find..).

Percentage numbers for the prevalence of specific variants are always a few weeks behind, due to the amount of time that sequencing takes.

Tenger

biggebruv wrote: »

What’s the point of getting Astra Zeneca now if it’s only 60% effective against the delta variant if I’m offered that one can I say no I want the Pfizer since I read it’s apparently 88% effective

Other nations (the UK and Canada) are already doing mixed vaccines. That could be an option.

But in reality the actual effectiveness is similar across all vaccines. Waiting to get a "better" one is riskier than taking the first one.

*said as a recepient of J&J.

Lumen

pc7 wrote: »

If they are ‘assuming’ Delta does that mean the % of Delta we are hearing is a guesstimate?

It's an extrapolation based on aged data. Sequencing currently takes about two weeks, apparently.

In official speak, "a number of weeks", or in plain English "weeks".

Stheno

pc7 wrote: »

If they are ‘assuming’ Delta does that mean the % of Delta we are hearing is a guesstimate?

Takes 3 weeks to confirm genome sequencing

If you'd told me a year ago I would know the term genome sequencing I'd have thought you were insane