nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

The Delta variant

amandstu

How might this play out?

Apparently cases in England may be doubling every 4.5 days and resultant hospitalizations are said to be possibly between 2 and 3 times more likely that with the Alpha variant.

Only 1% prevalence here at the moment seemingly.

Back of envelope modeling in my sitting room is not reassuring and I am not near to getting my second AstraZeneca jab yet( so 30% protected against symptomatic disease?)

EDIT: Have been corrected in this thread that parts of England (not England as a whole) had cases doubling every 4.5 days

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

saabsaab

ionnn wrote: »

Oh give it a rest

No.

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

NPHET's full modelling is bizarre compared to anywhere else

No Delta

Cases 21,000
Hospital Admissions 405
ICU 55
Deaths 80

Optimistic

Cases 81,000
Hospital Admissions 1,530
ICU 195
Deaths 165

Central 1

Cases 187,000
Hospital Admissions 3,490
ICU 450
Deaths 545

Central 2

Cases 408,000
Hospital Admissions 7,690
ICU 985
Deaths 1,230

Pessimistic

Cases 681,900
Hospital Admissions 12,985
ICU 1,685
Deaths 2,170

Based on 1 July 2021 to 30 September 2021

I think im on the negative side of things with regards covid, but that has shocked me.

I blind man could have seen opening restaurants with delta on the rise and vaccination at a critical point was not going to happen.

I could be wrong but I call bull**** on the above with regards cases and especially with regards to hospitalisations and deaths.

It reminds me of McConkeys suggestions last September.

Maybe they are painting this picture to legitimise keeping pubs closed to all the critics.

I think pubs and indoor restaurants should be closed until end of August when we could reach decent herd immunity with vaccination.

Then I think we all have to "live with covid", whatever that means.

ShineOn7

The Government will seek a second, independent opinion from the likes of the World Health Organization or the European Centre for Disease Control on the figures presented to them by the National Public Health Emergency Team projecting the possible impact of the Delta variant, a Green Party minister has said.

Speaking on RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta, Minister for State Ossian Smyth said: "We will be looking at it again independently... on the figures outside of NPHET. We will ask them [an independent authority] to look at the figures independently."

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0629/1232045-nphet-letter/

ShineOn7

NPHET's full modelling is bizarre compared to anywhere else

No Delta

Cases 21,000
Hospital Admissions 405
ICU 55
Deaths 80

Optimistic

Cases 81,000
Hospital Admissions 1,530
ICU 195
Deaths 165

Central 1

Cases 187,000
Hospital Admissions 3,490
ICU 450
Deaths 545

Central 2

Cases 408,000
Hospital Admissions 7,690
ICU 985
Deaths 1,230

Pessimistic

Cases 681,900
Hospital Admissions 12,985
ICU 1,685
Deaths 2,170

Based on 1 July 2021 to 30 September 2021

saabsaab

Woody79 wrote: »

If this variant is much more dangerous and vaccines less effective against them, why has hospitalisation rates with vaccinated persons improved with this strain?

I heard early on the virus over time will become more infectious but less deadly.

I think that is the case with Delta.

Most if not all of us are going to be infected with covid in the long run but with less severe strains and most people with a level of immunity against it vaccine/previous infection.

We hope that's the case! I guess we have unnecessary foreign travel to thank for importing new strains.

[Deleted User]

OwenM wrote: »

Correct:

If this variant is much more dangerous and vaccines less effective against them, why has hospitalisation rates with vaccinated persons improved with this strain?

I heard early on the virus over time will become more infectious but less deadly.

I think that is the case with Delta.

Most if not all of us are going to be infected with covid in the long run but with less severe strains and most people with a level of immunity against it vaccine/previous infection.

[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I did post a deaths chart.

They're growing steadily from a very low base, but as we know, deaths lag cases significantly

Herp de derp. I messed that post up.

Meant to point out where your graph starts. Because cases are now where they were last time Scotland had a wave with a peak. So deaths should increase 10x to get to the same level as then?

TonyMaloney

Wolf359f wrote: »

Scotland definitely seem to be an outlier or further along the delta wave than the rest of the UK. I think it's Scotland and Portugal to be watching to see what happens. Scotland have about 40 daily hospital admissions now, about 20% of their last peak.

Agreed.

Portugal just posted over 1,700 daily cases today. Similar level of vaccination to us. Not a great situation.

Relatively tough restrictions on Lisbon, but it looks like the cat's out of the bag anyway.
People here are taking indoor dining not opening pretty hard. Imagine if NPHET proposed this for Dublin.

The restrictions include restaurants and cafes closing at 3:30pm on weekends, with limits on how many customers can be served. Wedding and baptism venues will be allowed to fill only 25 percent of their capacity, down from the current 50 percent, while weekend travel into and out of Lisbon will not be allowed.

Wolf359f

TonyMaloney wrote: »

I did post a deaths chart.

They're growing steadily from a very low base, but as we know, deaths lag cases significantly

Scotland definitely seem to be an outlier or further along the delta wave than the rest of the UK. I think it's Scotland and Portugal to be watching to see what happens. Scotland have about 40 daily hospital admissions now, about 20% of their last peak.

TonyMaloney

Deleted User wrote: »

You didn't post a graph for deaths funnily enough. If you had then we'd be about to see 50-100 daily deaths in Scotland.

I did post a deaths chart.

They're growing steadily from a very low base, but as we know, deaths lag cases significantly

[Deleted User]

TonyMaloney wrote: »

https://twitter.com/davidmcw/status/1409837721787547649?s=20

I don't know what the doubling time is for Scotland at the moment.
Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) has the doubling time for England at 11 days, so I'll quickly run with that even though it's clearly too conservative.

June 28: 3,285 cases
July 09: 6,570
July 20: 13,140
July 31: 26,280

That's a very simplistic projection, not a prediction. I just mean to illustrate that Scotland may be weeks away from numbers they would've considered next to impossible a short time ago.

But, as I'm sure someone will tell me, that's just cases. What's really important is hospitalisation & deaths.
Well unfortunately the link between cases and hospitalisation & death has not yet been broken. It's clearly much improved from January, but I still see potential for it to get pretty nasty over there again.

As ever, hospitalisations follow cases. And deaths lag hospitalisations.

All this to say that I don't think NPHET's most pessimistic scenario is implausible.
It's unlikely. That's why it's labelled 'pessimistic'.
But it's far from impossible. Scotland, I worry, illustrate that quite clearly.

You didn't post a graph for deaths funnily enough. If you had then we'd be about to see 50-100 daily deaths in Scotland.

TonyMaloney

https://twitter.com/davidmcw/status/1409837721787547649?s=20

6034073

I don't know what the doubling time is for Scotland at the moment.
Oliver Johnson (@BristOliver) has the doubling time for England at 11 days, so I'll quickly run with that even though it's clearly too conservative.

June 28: 3,285 cases
July 09: 6,570
July 20: 13,140
July 31: 26,280

That's a very simplistic projection, not a prediction. I just mean to illustrate that Scotland may be weeks away from numbers they would've considered next to impossible a short time ago.

But, as I'm sure someone will tell me, that's just cases. What's really important is hospitalisation & deaths.
Well unfortunately the link between cases and hospitalisation & death has not yet been broken. It's clearly much improved from January, but I still see potential for it to get pretty nasty over there again.

As ever, hospitalisations follow cases. And deaths lag hospitalisations.

All this to say that I don't think NPHET's most pessimistic scenario is implausible.
It's unlikely. That's why it's labelled 'pessimistic'.
But it's far from impossible. Scotland, I worry, illustrate that quite clearly.

[Deleted User]

Where in the name of blazes are nphet coming from with 700k new cases and 2000 deaths between now and September?
Jaysis
That would have to be mostly young people dying
Shortly there won't be 700000 adults left to vaccinate

Chris_5339762

The Kent variant is also a Variant of Concern, so in theory it applies there too.

Sierra Oscar

OwenM wrote: »

Sounds like you were fed bull****, it directly contradicts the HSE website which has from the beginning been promoted as the 'one source' of truthful advice to counter all the loons and anitvaxers etc.

Close contacts of a variant of concern

A variant of concern is a more infectious strain of the virus.

If you're a close contact of a person that tests positive for a COVID-19 (coronavirus) variant of concern you need to:
get tested for COVID-19

self-isolate (stay in your room) for 14 days

You need to do both, even if you are fully vaccinated.

There is different advice for close contacts of a person that tests positive for a regular strain of COVID-19 (coronavirus)

alibab

OwenM wrote: »

Sounds like you were fed bull****, it directly contradicts the HSE website which has from the beginning been promoted as the 'one source' of truthful advice to counter all the loons and anitvaxers etc.

It’s not bull I am in full isolation as per HSE public health . Confirmed Delta variant which is different . Despite being fully vaccinated I have been asked to fully isolate. My sons isolation increased to 14 days from 10 . This is specific to this variant.

OwenM

dominatinMC wrote: »

Yes. Look at the latest PHE report for evidence of this. Both vaccines >90% protection against severe illness.

Correct:

OwenM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Just an update, my relative found it difficult to navigate the Covid helpline - they kept getting referred back to the HSE website for information (which states they don't need to self-isolate or even get tested).

So I decided to ring the helpline myself. Spoke to a very helpful lady who checked the situation for me and yes, you do need to self-isolate if you are a close contact of someone who has tested positive for a 'variant of concern' even if you are fully vaccinated.

This is all news to me.

Sounds like you were fed bull****, it directly contradicts the HSE website which has from the beginning been promoted as the 'one source' of truthful advice to counter all the loons and anitvaxers etc.

dominatinMC

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Against Delta?

Yes. Look at the latest PHE report for evidence of this. Both vaccines >90% protection against severe illness.

FishOnABike

pc7 wrote: »

If they are ‘assuming’ Delta does that mean the % of Delta we are hearing is a guesstimate?

They may be using the "s gene target" from initial PCR test an an indicator of likely Delta variant before full gene sequencing is done.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01390-4

"Researchers have also been able to rapidly track the spread of B.1.617.2 because its genome contains a marker that the dominant B.1.1.7 variant lacks. The presence of this marker — known as the ‘S gene target’ — can be seen in the results of some of the PCR tests used to confirm cases of COVID-19, so researchers can use positive S-target hits as a proxy to quickly map the spread of B.1.617.2, without needing to sequence samples fully.

[Deleted User]

Goldengirl wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30272-2/fulltext

How many do ya want ?
100s more on the page that came from !

Very highrisk, as in group 7 or group 4 if not well controlled .

Did you read your own link?
According to it no-one under the age of 50 with Type 1 Diabetes has died with Covid in the UK. That's 0. Nada. Zilch. By pure chance you'd expect a couple since it says 544 under the age of 50 have died with Covid and roughly 1 in 200 have Type 1 diabetes.
We were talking about 35 year olds bear in mind.

I seem to recall that last week some numbers came out showing that even the obesity risk factor was pretty damn low unless it coincided with advanced age.

Goldengirl

Deleted User wrote: »

Got a link by any chance about the increased risk to people with Type 1 diabetes but no other illnesses? Just wondering because you equate 2 different risks and I doubt the 99.5%+ non-fatal rate for healthy people with Covid will be matched up with the death rate for people with Type 1 diabetes with Covid.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30272-2/fulltext

How many do ya want ?
100s more on the page that came from !

Very highrisk, as in group 7 or group 4 if not well controlled .

[Deleted User]

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Against Delta?

Just think about it.

Head to head with millions of people in UK similar efficacy.

https://www.indiatoday.in/science/story/pfizer-astrazeneca-vaccines-provide-similar-protection-against-symptomatic-covid-19-study-1805037-2021-05-21

Delta studies are tiny as its so new.

This garbage was trotted out with Alpha months back also.

Of course it will be the same.

Its just commonsense.

Small data less reliable (Delta studies to date due to being new)

Large data more reliable.

The real world study is the most reliable vaccine comparision in the world (tens of millions of people) and minute differences.

ShineOn7

Woody79 wrote: »

Real world studies say AZ is just as good as any MRNA.

Against Delta?

[Deleted User]

porta wrote: »

You obviously have no understanding of ‘vulnerable’. If you did, you wouldn’t be giving a dismissive “that’s life” reply.

A healthy 35 year old who gets Covid has a very good chance of a complete recovery.
A 35 year old Type-1 diabetic who gets Covid has a very good chance of winding up seriously ill or even dead.

Vulnerable people are very grateful to receive vaccines as part of what is turning out to be a (mostly) successful vaccine rollout.
They are also conscious that by receiving the AZ, the lesser protection is being given to those with the weakest natural defences.

I suggest that developing some understanding and empathy would be great for your mental health.

Real world studies say AZ is just as good as any MRNA.

Empathy for what?

Its just as good.

I got AZ and have no envy to MRNA vaccine holders.

I can understand people who are unvaccinated being envious of
vaccinated people, but brands envy?

Give me a break.

All current vaccines in EU are very good.

Spoilt and entitled come to mind.

Less than 20% of the world population has received 1 dose of any vaccine, never mind 2.

Some of these scientific celebratory media types have been pedaling this scutter re: Good/Bad vaccines.

Dangerous people when we need everyone to take vaccines when available.

[Deleted User]

porta wrote: »

You obviously have no understanding of ‘vulnerable’. If you did, you wouldn’t be giving a dismissive “that’s life” reply.

A healthy 35 year old who gets Covid has a very good chance of a complete recovery.
A 35 year old Type-1 diabetic who gets Covid has a very good chance of winding up seriously ill or even dead.

Vulnerable people are very grateful to receive vaccines as part of what is turning out to be a (mostly) successful vaccine rollout.
They are also conscious that by receiving the AZ, the lesser protection is being given to those with the weakest natural defences.

I suggest that developing some understanding and empathy would be great for your mental health.

Got a link by any chance about the increased risk to people with Type 1 diabetes but no other illnesses? Just wondering because you equate 2 different risks and I doubt the 99.5%+ non-fatal rate for healthy people with Covid will be matched up with the death rate for people with Type 1 diabetes with Covid.

porta

Woody79 wrote: »

You have 2 doses of a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic.

Younger people will now be offered AZ in the weeks ahead.

Be grateful, its good for your mental health.

There will always be people better off and worse than yourself.

Its called life.

You obviously have no understanding of ‘vulnerable’. If you did, you wouldn’t be giving a dismissive “that’s life” reply.

A healthy 35 year old who gets Covid has a very good chance of a complete recovery.
A 35 year old Type-1 diabetic who gets Covid has a very good chance of winding up seriously ill or even dead.

Vulnerable people are very grateful to receive vaccines as part of what is turning out to be a (mostly) successful vaccine rollout.
They are also conscious that by receiving the AZ, the lesser protection is being given to those with the weakest natural defences.

I suggest that developing some understanding and empathy would be great for your mental health.

funnydoggy

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

Annual number of people killed from gunshots in Florida is over 2,700.

So, not only do you gain the freedom to infect others indiscriminately, you also gain the freedom to shoot and kill them.
Or, of course, the freedom to get shot - that chance is much higher than being killed from Covid in Ireland, even in worst case scenarios.

In Ireland, 'freedom' means not allowing people to infect or shoot others.

???

Micky 32

Unicorn Milk Latte wrote: »

Annual number of people killed from gunshots in Florida is over 2,700.

So, not only do you gain the freedom to infect others indiscriminately, you also gain the freedom to shoot and kill them.
Or, of course, the freedom to get shot - that chance is much higher than being killed from Covid in Ireland, even in worst case scenarios.

In Ireland, 'freedom' means not allowing people to infect or shoot others.

I’m not afraid of Covid or guns. I own a gun btw. Oh i’m fully vaccinated aswell ;-)

ShineOn7

agoodpunt wrote: »

worth a look its the delta variant
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/coronavirus-delta-variant-slams-shut-the-reopening-of-israel-to-world/news-story/f02e7b028a898acb2b72db95e56a2385

Subscription only article

What's the gist?