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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XI *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • #8912
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,444 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Listening to Newstalk and people dialling in. Quite clear there is a cohort out there who are very happy for restrictions to continue.


  • #8913
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    VinLieger wrote: »
    This is all part of the problem, the stop, start, stop, start leaking is fvcking with people. Over a week of back and forth if and but speculation helps nobody.

    Bingo

    But people lap it up so the media will keep speculating, opinions will keep getting published and people will continue to get outraged by something that might or might not happen.

    I'm going to go against the consensus here and say I don't think a decision has been made yet. No doubt plenty will disagree.


  • #8914
    Zebra3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,097 ✭✭✭✭Zebra3


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    What happened to the much vaunted "vaccine bonus"? It was all we heard about through out March and April. Then nada. I'm fully vaxxed and it means fook all in the scheme of things.

    It was just more nonsense to string people along.


  • #8915
    Sofa King Great
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭Sofa King Great


    Was it not inevitable that cases would rise as there were further reopenings?

    As others have said, 10% increase is about 30-35 per day or 210 - 245 per week. At the same time, we will be vaccinating 300,000 per week.

    This is all before we start to get in to how many of those 210-245 will display any symptoms

    If those are the numbers being presented reopening seems like an absolute no brainer


  • #8916
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    zackory wrote: »
    Because the younger people are not vaccinated yet. And they can spread the virus between themselves.

    But its mainly a casedemic for the them so we won't be seeing them cause the hospital system to collapse.

    But you know all this of course.

    Well no - that's still wildly inconsistent imo.

    No mention of younger people in what was quoted - just something about hotels which are not sticking to the rules and consequent superspreader events?

    So if there is no risk to the hospital system collapsing as you stated - because its a casedemic for young people (and a large cohort of older age groups are vaccinated) - then why would think there's a problem with hotels creating potential super spreader events?

    I only ask as it makes no sense tbh.


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  • #8917
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    Listening to Newstalk and people dialling in. Quite clear there is a cohort out there who are very happy for restrictions to continue.
    A vocal minority I would suspect.
    Are these people (in favour of restrictons) idiots? It's all well and good to sit at home all day claiming your PUP, but all this money will eventually have to be paid back. When are people going to wake up and realise this


  • #8918
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,444 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    Sofa King Great wrote: »
    Was it not inevitable that cases would rise as there were further reopenings?

    As others have said, 10% increase is about 30-35 per day or 210 - 245 per week. At the same time, we will be vaccinating 300,000 per week.

    This is all before we start to get in to how many of those 210-245 will display any symptoms

    If those are the numbers being presented reopening seems like an absolute no brainer

    Absolutely. A 10% increase in cases from opening indoor dining should be absolutely very positive news and clear indication the modelling shows vaccines work. Such a significant restriction being lifted and we see only marginal increases in cases in the model.

    But instead it's being used as the opposite - OMG 10% increase - we can't be having that!


  • #8919
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    2 week delay for a 10% case reduction. Is that where we are now with this modelling? Continue to cripple businesses for a whole 30 or so cases a day where statistically none of those will be hospitalised or die. Said it before, but we've absolutely lost the plot in this country. This government has no ability at all to measure risk.
    Why are we still talking about cases like it's 2020. It's clear as day that the relationship between cases and hospitalisations/deaths has been altered by vaccines. But we still seem to be persisting with this metric.


  • #8920
    muddypuppy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 322 ✭✭muddypuppy


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    What happened to the much vaunted "vaccine bonus"? It was all we heard about through out March and April. Then nada. I'm fully vaxxed and it means fook all in the scheme of things.

    No need for it when uptake is >90%, plus it would be a huge middle finger to young people that gave so much and are going to be the last one to get vaccinated.
    You have it/are going to have it where it make sense, IE no need to quarantine when coming back to Ireland, or if reported as a close contact of a covid case.


  • #8921
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,444 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Why are we still talking about cases like it's 2020. It's clear as day that the relationship between cases and hospitalisations/deaths has been altered by vaccines. But we still seem to be persisting with this metric.

    Yup. The model that NPHET are using to make decisions is based on case numbers. If they looked at hospitalisations and ICU they couldn't justify any of their advice but case numbers is still their get out of jail free card to recommend continued restrictions.


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  • #8922
    gozunda
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    Yup. The model that NPHET are using to make decisions is based on case numbers. If they looked at hospitalisations and ICU they couldn't justify any of their advice but case numbers is still their get out of jail free card to recommend continued restrictions.

    Haven't seen the update but did he reference the Delta variant at all?


  • #8923
    Summer2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 686 ✭✭✭Summer2020


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    Listening to Newstalk and people dialling in. Quite clear there is a cohort out there who are very happy for restrictions to continue.

    Absolutely. And the problem is these are the ones who are getting the airtime.


  • #8924
    zackory
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭zackory


    gozunda wrote: »
    Well no - that's still wildly inconsistent imo.

    No mention of younger people in what was quoted - just something about hotels which are not sticking to the rules and consequent superspreader events?

    So if there is no risk to the hospital system collapsing as you stated - because its a casedemic for young people (and a large cohort of older age groups are vaccinated) - then why would think there's a problem with hotels creating potential super spreader events?

    I only ask as it makes no sense tbh.

    Did I say its a problem?

    The point is it is happening, as are loads of uncontrolled indoor gatherings, its not causing a problem as we are not seeing significant hospitalisations.


  • #8925
    zebastein
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 198 ✭✭zebastein


    I don't understand why this 10% increase and the predicted number of cases end of July is not discussed, and is taken as a fact by everyone.

    We had in the last few months:
    - The Tanaiste who said that with the UK variant we will probably never go below 500 cases per day. Two weeks later we were below this mark and almost never been back to this mark.
    - We had scientists who said that with the relaxations of restrictions, it was inevitable that the cases will increase, and that they should reach 800 cases per day beginning of June. It never happened. We reopened, case numbers still went down.
    - We had models that were talking about 1200 cases a day in May, 7000 cases in July:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/daily-covid-cases-could-reach-1-200-if-social-contacts-step-change-in-may-nphet-warns-1.4551250
    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-19-cases-could-rise-to-2000-a-day-within-month-nphet-told-ministers-1104344.html

    Absolutely all the models have been wrong so far. The reality is that we don't know, but we had a lot of restrictions eased and cases still went down. So why would they go up, now that we never had so many people vaccinated every week ? The restrictions left to open is tiny compared to everything that opened between April and June.


  • #8926
    zackory
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭zackory


    zebastein wrote: »
    I don't understand why this 10% increase and the predicted number of cases end of July is not discussed, and is taken as a fact by everyone.

    We had in the last few months:
    - The Tanaiste who said that with the UK variant we will probably never go below 500 cases per day. Two weeks later we were below this mark and almost never been back to this mark.
    - We had scientists who said that with the relaxations of restrictions, it was inevitable that the cases will increase, and that they should reach 800 cases per day beginning of June. It never happened. We reopened, case numbers still went down.
    - We had models that were talking about 1200 cases a day in May, 7000 cases in July:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/daily-covid-cases-could-reach-1-200-if-social-contacts-step-change-in-may-nphet-warns-1.4551250
    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-19-cases-could-rise-to-2000-a-day-within-month-nphet-told-ministers-1104344.html

    Absolutely all the models have been wrong so far. The reality is that we don't know, but we had a lot of restrictions eased and cases still went down. So why would they go up, now that we never had so many people vaccinated every week ? The restrictions left to open is tiny compared to everything that opened between April and June.

    I know that, and you know that, but NPHET and all their followers choose to gloss over these things to keep it going.

    Another thing that seems to be dropped is ventilation requirements for indoors, no talk of it.

    Fire officer requirements require a certain amount of exists based on capacity, distances to said exits etc.

    It would be very simple to instruct all emergency exits be latched open at all times for the next month or so.


  • #8927
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    ISAG are re tweeting **** like this.

    Obviously the tweet is about the UK.

    The reality is its unvaccinated people who are spreading covid and the UK still has a lot of vaccination left to do.



    https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1409213268015603714

    They really are a total joke.


  • #8928
    dubdaymo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 307 ✭✭dubdaymo


    Everyone should email or tweet their local Minister or TD now and tell them that tomorrow we are looking forward to learning who is actually running this country.


  • #8929
    Leftwaffe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭Leftwaffe


    The Hegarthy one who’s discrediting McConkey is a fecking architect is she not?


  • #8930
    Red Silurian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    landofthetree wrote: »
    ISAG are re tweeting **** like this.

    Obviously the tweet is about the UK.

    The reality is its unvaccinated people who are spreading covid and the UK still has a lot of vaccination left to do.



    https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1409213268015603714

    They really are a total joke.

    The UK is a complete ****show

    Boris Johnson and his cronies made a big deal about them following "data, not dates"
    and then proceeded to call out their reopening dates -_-


  • #8931
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    zebastein wrote: »
    I don't understand why this 10% increase and the predicted number of cases end of July is not discussed, and is taken as a fact by everyone.

    We had in the last few months:
    - The Tanaiste who said that with the UK variant we will probably never go below 500 cases per day. Two weeks later we were below this mark and almost never been back to this mark.
    - We had scientists who said that with the relaxations of restrictions, it was inevitable that the cases will increase, and that they should reach 800 cases per day beginning of June. It never happened. We reopened, case numbers still went down.
    - We had models that were talking about 1200 cases a day in May, 7000 cases in July:
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/daily-covid-cases-could-reach-1-200-if-social-contacts-step-change-in-may-nphet-warns-1.4551250
    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-19-cases-could-rise-to-2000-a-day-within-month-nphet-told-ministers-1104344.html

    Absolutely all the models have been wrong so far. The reality is that we don't know, but we had a lot of restrictions eased and cases still went down. So why would they go up, now that we never had so many people vaccinated every week ? The restrictions left to open is tiny compared to everything that opened between April and June.
    To be fair, all of those models you're talking about were the worst-case scenarios, so of course the media led with them. NPHET presented a number of models with each of these advisories, but the fact that any one of them aren't exactly right, doesn't mean it's all nonsense.

    I wonder what this "10%" is supposed to mean though or where it's come from. It's not some off-the-cuff remark from Leo, he has dropped this in very deliberately to suggest that pushing back the reopening would be overly cautious.


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  • #8932
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    namloc1980 wrote: »
    What happened to the much vaunted "vaccine bonus"? It was all we heard about through out March and April. Then nada. I'm fully vaxxed and it means fook all in the scheme of things.

    Its funny ye mentioned it but we had a club hurling game last night so i was talking to the lads after and having a bit of banter which usually all people talk about now is COVID and about Vaccines etc (theyre all young fellas no vaccines yet) telling them how i was getting my second dose this week cos im more important etc etc, just a bit of banter.

    Their reaction was one of "vaccines, shur whats the point"

    A bit more banter with me getting on to them "surely lads ye are not part of these anti vax loonies lads? dont tell me that"

    And to a man they were there, not at all, would take it in the morning but whats the point? Vaccine uptake in the country is high, numbers across everything is low and still its delay, delay etc, whats the point? All we want to do is go back home and have a pint in the local!

    As a group of young lads they were despondent of the whole thing and they even won the bloody game.

    Im in a different situation than them and i genuinely felt sorry for them even though i know sympathy for them will probably be lacking on here.


  • #8933
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    Things you wont hear on RTE

    https://twitter.com/KarlBrophy/status/1408732275186049028


  • #8934
    landofthetree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,462 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    the kelt wrote: »
    Its funny ye mentioned it but we had a club hurling game last night so i was talking to the lads after and having a bit of banter which usually all people talk about now is COVID and about Vaccines etc (theyre all young fellas no vaccines yet) telling them how i was getting my second dose this week cos im more important etc etc, just a bit of banter.

    Their reaction was one of "vaccines, shur whats the point"

    A bit more banter with me getting on to them "surely lads ye are not part of these anti vax loonies lads? dont tell me that"

    And to a man they were there, not at all, would take it in the morning but whats the point? Vaccine uptake in the country is high, numbers across everything is low and still its delay, delay etc, whats the point? All we want to do is go back home and have a pint in the local!

    As a group of young lads they were despondent of the whole thing and they even won the bloody game.

    Im in a different situation than them and i genuinely felt sorry for them even though i know sympathy for them will probably be lacking on here.


    Without doubt ISAG,Nphet and the government are doing a great job to discourage people getting vaccinated.


  • #8935
    Red Silurian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,749 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    landofthetree wrote: »
    Things you wont hear on RTE

    https://twitter.com/KarlBrophy/status/1408732275186049028

    And that's based on a huge number of them being AZ shots


  • #8936
    jammiedodgers
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,429 ✭✭✭jammiedodgers


    seamus wrote: »

    I wonder what this "10%" is supposed to mean though or where it's come from. It's not some off-the-cuff remark from Leo, he has dropped this in very deliberately to suggest that pushing back the reopening would be overly cautious.

    Just watching the lunchtime news, it seems a member of NPHET was being interviewed and suggested a 2 week delay would result in 10% reduction of cases. Leo making the point I think that 10% doesn't seem a lot.


  • #8937
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Updated ad on Q102 radio 10 minutes ago about reopening guidelines and next steps

    Indoor dining from the 19th

    Communions and confirmations subject to local health situation


  • #8938
    the kelt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,892 ✭✭✭the kelt


    jammiedodgers wrote: »
    Just watching the lunchtime news, it seems a member of NPHET was being interviewed and suggested a 2 week delay would result in 10% reduction of cases. Leo making the point I think that 10% doesn't seem a lot.

    Its good to see with vaccines breaking the link between cases and hospital numbers that we have totally gotten away from obsessing about case numbers anyway :rolleyes:


  • #8939
    namloc1980
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,444 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    the kelt wrote: »
    Its good to see with vaccines breaking the link between cases and hospital numbers that we have totally gotten away from obsessing about case numbers anyway :rolleyes:

    NPHET members know that if they stop talking about case numbers the game is up for them.


  • #8940
    Henry...
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Henry...


    How much longer is this going on

    It's the greatest load of nonsense in the history of science


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  • #8941
    _Kaiser_
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,252 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Stheno wrote: »
    Updated ad on Q102 radio 10 minutes ago about reopening guidelines and next steps

    Indoor dining from the 19th

    Communions and confirmations subject to local health situation

    Whoops.. Sounds like someone released it early


This discussion has been closed.
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