Scottish independence

BlitzKrieg · 02-05-2021 7:33pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Johnson's plan to respond to the Scottish vote has apparently been revealed:

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1388607498672877572

It goes on to say a senior government source reckons the result in Scotland is likely to be 'bloody awful.' The above plans have the air of 'the vow' about them from 2014.

Did any of 'the vow' come true in the end? I know the EU side of it obviously fell flat on it's face but did the UK actually give anything to Scotland in the end?

Larbre34 · 02-05-2021 8:06pm

It'd be pretty difficult to be more pathetic than the Government of Boris Johnson right now.

The UK is broke and falling apart and he's talking about student exchanges and building royal yachts.

astrofool · 02-05-2021 9:57pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

It'd be pretty difficult to be more pathetic than the Government of Boris Johnson right now.

The UK is broke and falling apart and he's talking about student exchanges and building royal yachts.

Honestly, I think he knows his time is up so he won't be the one who has to quietly drops them.

I mean, a royal yacht to go buccaneering for trade deals on the high seas, it's utterly daft.

Mr.Nice Guy · 02-05-2021 10:26pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Did any of 'the vow' come true in the end? I know the EU side of it obviously fell flat on it's face but did the UK actually give anything to Scotland in the end?

I seem to recall there were some extra powers to do with income tax but besides that, very little.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-05-2021 11:08pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I seem to recall there were some extra powers to do with income tax but besides that, very little.

Which were overridable because of invoking the Henry VIII's laws as part of Brexit.

What few powers were given could be removed anytime.

ThePanjandrum · 03-05-2021 12:15am

bob mcbob wrote: »

Education standards - here is an alternative view from the Telegraph for you
https://fullfact.org/scotland/johnson-education-claims/

Isn't it a shame that Fullfacts "refutation" of the fall in standards depends on ignoring grade inflation, so if students get higher marks because the exams are easier or marked more leniently than previously.

03-05-2021 10:41am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I seem to recall there were some extra powers to do with income tax but besides that, very little.

Other than making a the Scottish government permanent under the constitution and giving the Holyrood parliament more power than any devolved administration in the world, you mean?

Capt'n Midnight · 03-05-2021 11:15am

Voting on Thursday. This may be too little , too late to distance them

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-56962642

Boris Johnson should resign if he is found to have broken government rules over his flat renovations, the Scottish Conservative leader has said.

Mr.Nice Guy · 03-05-2021 6:14pm

Douglas Ross probably knows the game is up for him if the polls are to be believed. I don't think they have run a good campaign, and this evening it looks like the party in Scotland has blundered with a tweet they sent out:

https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1389220146632437763

I can see that line being referenced and repeated plenty of times in the days, weeks and months to come by independence supporters. This was the Tory response to it subsequently:

The SNP are getting themselves all excited about this tweet.

Their own 'routemap to independence' says they'll hold a wildcat indyref2 if they get a majority - no matter what the UK Government says.

There's only one way to be sure of stopping it - #PeachVoteTory.

Doubling down on the original post probably wasn't the best idea. A lot of unionists in the comments are expressing disbelief that the Tory strategy is giving credibility to the SNP claim that a vote for them is a mandate, rather than dismissing the possibility outright. A selection of some that caught my eye:

There are no guarantees,no matter what the vote in an assembly.The Assembly does not have legality over constitutional issues. Why are you agreeing with them?

This campaign from the conservatives has been complete and utter ****e. As a Tory voter I’m dismayed at the fact you have chosen to go with ‘stop the referendum’ when it should have been ‘you can’t have one as it’s reserved to Westminster so vote for us instead’. Like Labour

All they had to do was say "The SNP is lying to you, there isn't going to be a referendum".

This is nonsense. A 'wildcat' ref can be stopped by legal means - nothing to do with Tories. You are coming across as defeatist.

Don't tweet in a way that appears to support the SNP.

This tweet was a pathetic disgrace and is only acceptable if you make it explicitly clear that they are threatening an UNCONSTITUTIONAL referendum.

There is no advantage in not explaining this!

It's not the SNP. Your own voters are telling you that you are morons.

That tweet is probably the most stupid move I have ever seen during an election campaign.

Total amateurs man.

I wonder are the Tories in London aware of what the Tories north of the border are doing because it would seem they are making things much harder for them with the mixed messages.

Peregrinus · 05-05-2021 3:57am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I wonder are the Tories in London aware of what the Tories north of the border are doing because it would seem they are making things much harder for them with the mixed messages.

I don't think the Scottish Tories care greatly what Tories in London think about them. Why should they, when the Tories in London plainly care so little about them?

Obviously the Scottish Tories have not given up on the union or on unionism. But, strategically, they will be thinking about how to position themselves for political relevance in an independent, or independence-minded, Scotland. Being perceived as the Edinburgh branch office of Westminster Toryism would not be good positioning.

(One of the ironies of Tory opposition to Scottish independence is that, in an independent Scotland no longer dominated by the independence question, as space for a major centre-right party, perhaps a Christian Democratic party in Euoropean terms, is likely to open up. And why should the Scottish Tories not fill that space? For much of middle years of the 20th century Scottish politics was largely a duopoly between the Labour Party on the left and the Unionist party (not to be confused with the Ulster Unionist Party) on the right. The Unionist party merged with the Conservative Party in 1965, and since then has been pretty much on the slide, electorally speaking. But there's no reason why a left/right duopoly shouldn't emerge again.)

Wanderer78 · 05-05-2021 5:35am

With their new public infrastructure bank, they're well on their way to independence, and I suspect they'll succeed this time

pixelburp · 08-05-2021 1:42pm

The SNP have been out pouring cold water over the prospect of a majority it seems; wonder if this is merely tempering expectations or if they saw something in their internal polling. The system intentionally prevents lopsided majorities so maybe they know what's likely

And watching the electorial map take shape is fascinating. Not least how solidly blue the border constituencies remain (Galloway and West Dufries remains to be called but was Tory the last time).

BonnieSituation · 08-05-2021 1:58pm

pixelburp wrote: »

The SNP have been out pouring cold water over the prospect of a majority it seems; wonder if this is merely tempering expectations or if they saw something in their internal polling. The system intentionally prevents lopsided majorities so maybe they know what's likely

And watching the electorial map take shape is fascinating. Not least how solidly blue the border constituencies remain (Galloway and West Dufries remains to be called but was Tory the last time).

They're not tempering expectations they're trying to inform the public that the media are talking crap.

The narrative since yesterday has been that the SNP have failed to get majority, which is clearly preposterous.

It's just classic Unionist media reportage.

Sam Russell · 08-05-2021 2:25pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They're not tempering expectations they're trying to inform the public that the media are talking crap.

The narrative since yesterday has been that the SNP have failed to get majority, which is clearly preposterous.

It's just classic Unionist media reportage.

The SNP have to win over 50% of the seats in a system designed to prevent them doing so.

In Westminster, Gov get formed with massive majorities when only achieving 43% or so of the popular vote, and that is a legitimate, democratic result. Thatcher got that in her three election 'victories, as did Tony Blair when he won the largest no of seats.

So a massive endorsement for Tories of 43% of the vote, but a massive defeat for the SNP on 50% of the vote. That is democracy UK style.

BonnieSituation · 08-05-2021 2:26pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

The SNP have to win over 50% of the seats in a system designed to prevent them doing so.

In Westminster, Gov get formed with massive majorities when only achieving 43% or so of the popular vote, and that is a legitimate, democratic result. Thatcher got that in her three election 'victories, as did Tony Blair when he won the largest no of seats.

So a massive endorsement for Tories of 43% of the vote, but a massive defeat for the SNP on 50% of the vote. That is democracy UK style.

Exactly. It's maddening, though not surprising.

Standards are for "others".

Sam Russell · 08-05-2021 2:31pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Exactly. It's maddening, though not surprising.

Standards are for "others".

Not just 'standards' but also 'precedents'.

As Tory PMs are wont to say and do - 'We need to find a precedent that allows us to do what we want to do (even if it is illegal)- and if we cannot find one, we will invent one and that will do'.

A Dub in Glasgo · 08-05-2021 2:38pm

The BBC finally have a small piece on their website which explains it but they continually let the unionist parties and commentators spout the 'bad day for the SNP as they did not get a majority'

With the SNP winning nearly all the constituencies, how can a majority be in doubt?

Philip Sim

BBC Scotland political correspondent

The SNP are likely to take the vast majority of constituency seats – but this is not the only way MSPs are elected.

As well as the 73 first past the post contests, there are 56 MSPs elected to eight regions across Scotland. These seats are doled out using a proportional representation system, which aims to “top up” the number of MSPs for parties which have won a lot of votes locally, but fell short of winning actual seats.

It uses a multiplier system which means every seat a party gains locally makes it progressively harder to pick up more - so because the SNP dominates the constituency contests around the country, it is very hard for them to win list seats

pixelburp · 08-05-2021 3:44pm

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

BonnieSituation · 08-05-2021 3:47pm

pixelburp wrote: »

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

One would hope that they learned their partition lesson from Ireland, the Middle East and India. One would hope.

pixelburp · 08-05-2021 3:51pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

One would hope that they learned their partition lesson from Ireland, the Middle East and India. One would hope.

TBH all I know of the border areas is a) there was a Pro14 rugby team (Border Reivers), and b) it's traditionally very unionist. Culturally though, would it swing Scots or North England, to be reductionist? History repeats so I'd spare no confidence independence wouldn't be messy, hence my crazy idea of Scotland starting smaller, England getting a little larger.

BlitzKrieg · 08-05-2021 3:51pm

pixelburp wrote: »

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

Well the border counties in Northern Ireland are traditionally more pro united Ireland. It might boil simply down to geography, though I guess that doesnt explain why the point furthest north keeps voting liberal democrat.

Auldloon · 08-05-2021 3:57pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Well the border counties in Northern Ireland are traditionally more pro united Ireland. It might boil simply down to geography, though I guess that doesnt explain why the point furthest north keeps voting liberal democrat.

That’s down to the popularity of the individual rather than any party loyalty

Sam Russell · 08-05-2021 3:57pm

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Well the border counties in Northern Ireland are traditionally more pro united Ireland. It might boil simply down to geography, though I guess that doesnt explain why the point furthest north keeps voting liberal democrat.

Jo Grimond.

BlitzKrieg · 08-05-2021 4:04pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

Jo Grimond.

that is a solid legacy.

Sierra Oscar · 08-05-2021 5:45pm

It's laughable to watch the BBC coverage regarding the SNP. Trying to make it out that they have somehow lost the election because they haven't got a majority, which they always said would be extremely difficult to achieve considering the Additional Member System is designed to prevent one party getting an overall majority. Such absurd coverage is playing right into the hands of the SNP and the wider nationalist movement.

Despite this it looks like they will increase their number of seats and are within a fraction of an overall majority. Then you have the pro-independence Green's doing well resulting in a clear majority of the new parliament in favour of independence. The national question is very much back on the agenda.

Sam Russell · 08-05-2021 5:51pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It's laughable to watch the BBC coverage regarding the SNP. Trying to make it out that they have somehow lost the election because they haven't got a majority, which they always said would be extremely difficult to achieve considering the Additional Member System is designed to prevent one party getting an overall majority. Such absurd coverage is playing right into the hands of the SNP and the wider nationalist movement.

Despite this it looks like they will increase their number of seats and are within a fraction of an overall majority. Then you have the pro-independence Green's doing resulting in a clear majority of the new parliament in favour of independence. The national question is very much back on the agenda.

Results look like SNP 63 and Greens 9 which gives a majority of 14 for independence. That is a good solid mandate.

BonnieSituation · 08-05-2021 5:58pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It's laughable to watch the BBC coverage regarding the SNP. Trying to make it out that they have somehow lost the election because they haven't got a majority, which they always said would be extremly difficult to achieve considering the Additional Member System is designed to prevent one party getting an overall majority.

Despite this it looks like they will increase their number of seats and are within a fraction of an overall majority. Then you have the pro-independence Green's doing resulting in a clear majority of the new parliament in favour of independence. The national question is very much back on the agenda.

It was never off the agenda though.

Andrew Bowie (West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine MP) just on BBC trying to make out that there's no mandate for a referendum because the SNP didn't win an overall majority. So we can see that this is where the narrative will go.

LuckyLloyd · 08-05-2021 6:07pm

Great news in Scotland! What a win for independence. Hopefully they have the balls now.

Sierra Oscar · 08-05-2021 6:14pm

Nicola Sturgeon speaking from Glasgow now. They will be pushing ahead with a referendum in this parliament's term.

BonnieSituation · 08-05-2021 6:21pm

Scottish Labour are pathetic. Teaming up with Scottish Tories to continue the assault on the intelligence of all those who follow politics in Scotland.

Cosmo Kramer · 08-05-2021 6:25pm

pixelburp wrote: »

TBH all I know of the border areas is a) there was a Pro14 rugby team (Border Reivers), and b) it's traditionally very unionist. Culturally though, would it swing Scots or North England, to be reductionist? History repeats so I'd spare no confidence independence wouldn't be messy, hence my crazy idea of Scotland starting smaller, England getting a little larger.

Just to answer this, the Borders are very much Scottish, but their position in the border puts them in an unusual position in Scotland. Because of the geography of the country with so many people living in central Scotland and up the east coast, relatively few people actually live on or near the border - there are only three or four border constituencies. But those that do often have links on both sides, many work in places like Carlisle and Berwick, but live in Scotland. The idea of a physical border doesn't suit them, so they oppose it by voting Tory.

The Scottish borders also includes a significant minority of English people who have migrated across the border for various reasons, they also very much lean Tory.

No prospect of redrawing the border though, it will be all or (more likely) nothing.

BlitzKrieg · 08-05-2021 6:28pm

I'd be curious where they'd land if Yorkshire and most of north england also started talking about independence?

A Dub in Glasgo · 08-05-2021 6:32pm

Final FPTP constituency seats are in and it is an absolute humping victory for the SNP. The media are using FPTP comparisons with the AMS system in use, any impartial commentator should be stating that if the election was carried out like they do in Westminster then the result is below

Number of seasts: 73
SNP: 62
Tory: 5
Lib Dems: 4
Labour:2

As for the tactical voting from the Labour party voters, this sums it up quite well

https://twitter.com/gwpurnell/status/1390994909277077504

Mr.Nice Guy · 08-05-2021 6:37pm

It's ludicrous to argue on the one hand it's okay for Labour and the Tories to cooperate in order to stop another referendum, but it's not okay for the SNP and Greens to cooperate in order to bring about another referendum.

The mandate is there. As Sturgeon said, it's now up to Johnson as to whether the UK is a voluntary union of nations or not.

An Claidheamh · 08-05-2021 6:41pm

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Final FPTP constituency seats are in and it is an absolute humping victory for the SNP. The media are using FPTP comparisons with the AMS system in use, any impartial commentator should be stating that if the election was carried out like they do in Westminster then the result is below

Number of seasts: 73
SNP: 62
Tory: 5
Lib Dems: 4
Labour:2

As for the tactical voting from the Labour party voters, this sums it up quite well

https://twitter.com/gwpurnell/status/1390994909277077504

Anyone know what the popular vote is?

That would be a more accurate indication as to SNP power and who would vote yes in a referendum

Should not really matter what the BBC tell Scottish people, SNP and Holyrood do not serve them

Johnson will not give them a referendum, Scotland needs to grow some

A Dub in Glasgo · 08-05-2021 6:44pm

Probably spilt right down the middle

EDit:]Here is the constituency total

Capt'n Midnight · 08-05-2021 7:12pm

Glasgow Election Region Results 2021 Greens miss out on a seat by 913 votes.

Conservative 37027 Two seats
Green Party 36114 One seat
Labour Party 74088 Four seats

Scottish National Party (SNP) got 133917 votes and Zero seats

Mr.Nice Guy · 08-05-2021 7:19pm

Johnson has sent a letter to Sturgeon, inviting her to join him, the Welsh First Minister, and the First and Deputy Minister of NI, to "a summit meeting to discuss our shared challenges and how we can work together in the coming months and years to overcome them."

Letter had an embargo on it until 10:30pm but BBC Scotland have revealed it early.

https://twitter.com/John_McKee/status/1391083909144891392

https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenNews/status/1391082838125162501

https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/1391081596208435205

My initial impression is that this is primarily about Johnson trying to kick the independence issue into the long grass.

Professor Moriarty · 08-05-2021 7:27pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Johnson has sent a letter to Sturgeon, inviting her to join him, the Welsh First Minister, and the First and Deputy Minister of NI, to "a summit meeting to discuss our shared challenges and how we can work together in the coming months and years to overcome them."

Letter had an embargo on it until 10:30pm but BBC Scotland have revealed it early.

https://twitter.com/John_McKee/status/1391083909144891392

https://twitter.com/ChrisGreenNews/status/1391082838125162501

https://twitter.com/severincarrell/status/1391081596208435205

My initial impression is that this is primarily about Johnson trying to kick the independence issue into the long grass.

Reading that letter, I wonder is it a parody account. It basically says fcuk your independence, we'll have a chat around the fireside, you'll calm down and we'll be grand.

pixelburp · 08-05-2021 7:33pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Glasgow Election Region Results 2021 Greens miss out on a seat by 913 votes.

Conservative 37027 Two seats
Green Party 36114 One seat
Labour Party 74088 Four seats

Scottish National Party (SNP) got 133917 votes and Zero seats

The final tallies of percentage support across the country, and especially the demographics therein, will tell an interesting picture. Especially insofar as the appetite for another referendum. I'd seen some suggestions the younger cohorts were fading on 2nd ref support but we'll see.

The Scots system does seem precision engineered to sytmy an outright majority. Technically that's not necessarily a bad thing - compromise is an important tool of governance - but in this case one wonders was it made to hold back the possibility of SNP dominance.

Sam Russell · 08-05-2021 7:39pm

pixelburp wrote: »

The final tallies of percentage support across the country, and especially the demographics therein, will tell an interesting picture. Especially insofar as the appetite for another referendum. I'd seen some suggestions the younger cohorts were fading on 2nd ref support but we'll see.

The Scots system does seem precision engineered to sytmy an outright majority. Technically that's not necessarily a bad thing - compromise is an important tool of governance - but in this case one wonders was it made to hold back the possibility of SNP dominance.

More likely to stymie Labour. Remember Labour were the dominant force in Scotland prior to the IndRef.

pixelburp · 08-05-2021 7:42pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

More likely to stymie Labour. Remember Labour were the dominant force in Scotland prior to the IndRef.

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

Cosmo Kramer · 08-05-2021 7:56pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Glasgow Election Region Results 2021 Greens miss out on a seat by 913 votes.

Conservative 37027 Two seats
Green Party 36114 One seat
Labour Party 74088 Four seats

Scottish National Party (SNP) got 133917 votes and Zero seats

Just on this - a right wing fascist ran in Glasgow and some other regional lists under the name "Independent Green Voice". He was higher up the ballot paper than the green party and polled around 2000 votes in Glasgow.

Almost certainly mostly green voters that put an X in the wrong box and seems to have cost the Greens a second seat in Glasgow.

cameramonkey · 08-05-2021 8:02pm

pixelburp wrote: »

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

Partition? That worked well in Ireland.

PommieBast · 08-05-2021 8:11pm

pixelburp wrote: »

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

I doubt it would have got the same cross-party support (everyone except the Conservatives) if it was slated to just use FPTP.

BonnieSituation · 08-05-2021 8:22pm

pixelburp wrote: »

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

The Lib Dems insisted on AMS or something approaching that for devolution support iirc

Enzokk · 08-05-2021 8:23pm

SNP now on 64 seats, one short of a majority.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1391109607565766661?s=20

What a disappointment for the SNP this has been...

BonnieSituation · 08-05-2021 8:28pm

Enzokk wrote: »

SNP now on 64 seats, one short of a majority.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1391109607565766661?s=20

What a disappointment for the SNP this has been...

Terrible result

Itssoeasy · 08-05-2021 10:36pm

pixelburp wrote: »

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

Yes, it happened under his watch in 1999(i think).

IRISHSPORTSGUY · 09-05-2021 12:06am

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1391161381546770446

Scottish independence

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