Scottish independence

pixelburp wrote: »

Right; so the independence movement has tapered off that badly? that's quite a distance to make up after for a while looking like polling might hit the 60% support.

You'd wonder what tactic the SNP are going to take, if they're serious about this referendum. Brexit has changed the nature of the beast but it's still going to be a big ask of the Scottish people; you'd speculate what the SNP approach will be

It has according to the polls. The SNP need to drill down into why support has faded recently.

I think they have to be very cautious. The problem is that you can't have referendum after referendum. Especially if they lose it again. People will simply move on after a while ala Brexit. Plus the Tories will be banging the drum about the the cost of independence which will be significant. It might be better to hold off for a year or two in the hope that the Tories make a mess of the economy and Brexit realities hit hard.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The trend for 2021 polling shows an average lead of 2% for remain. This trend has increased very slowly but jumped in the past month with the last three polls showing an average 6% lead for remain.

Right; so the independence movement has tapered off that badly? that's quite a distance to make up after for a while looking like polling might hit the 60% support.

You'd wonder what tactic the SNP are going to take, if they're serious about this referendum. Brexit has changed the nature of the beast but it's still going to be a big ask of the Scottish people; you'd speculate what the SNP approach will be

breezy1985

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Oh right. In actual fact it should be FFGG as the Greens are also in government. So, speaking of bedfellows, do we have to go down the road of a SFIRA opposition? Or in the context of Scottish independence, SNPG and CLLD?

Don't forget SFDUP

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

FF/FG necessity makes strange bedfellows.

Oh right. In actual fact it should be FFGG as the Greens are also in government. So, speaking of bedfellows, do we have to go down the road of a SFIRA opposition? Or in the context of Scottish independence, SNPG and CLLD?

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What's an FFG?

FF/FG necessity makes strange bedfellows.

An Claidheamh wrote: »

“The UK’s democratic heritage?”

They’ve never been democratic

That Peston guy, heard him talk about the North recently and Brexit in past, doesn’t appear to have a clue

At the end of the day, it is up to Scotland to take independence by the reins

As it a United Ireland, it is FFG who do not want to trigger it, it is not Westminster’s prerogative

What's an FFG?

An Claidheamh wrote: »

ce by the reins

As it a United Ireland, it is FFG who do not want to trigger it, it is not Westminster’s prerogative

Unfortunately it is solely in the prerogative of the UK Secretary of State's prerogative to trigger a border poll 'when he considers it likely to pass'

It is in the Good Friday Agreement. Read it, it is only 34 pages long.

pixelburp wrote: »

I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".

The trend for 2021 polling shows an average lead of 2% for remain. This trend has increased very slowly but jumped in the past month with the last three polls showing an average 6% lead for remain.

An Claidheamh

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Via Robert Peston's twitter:

If this is true, it begs the question what these love bombs will consist of. I suspect it would amount to having Edinburgh and Glasgow host some diplomatic events, and an increase in flag-waving. Not sure the Tories are more imaginative than that.

“The UK’s democratic heritage?”

They’ve never been democratic

That Peston guy, heard him talk about the North recently and Brexit in past, doesn’t appear to have a clue

At the end of the day, it is up to Scotland to take independence by the reins

As it a United Ireland, it is FFG who do not want to trigger it, it is not Westminster’s prerogative

pixelburp wrote: »

I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".

But when is the time but now?

There are always events that will be quoted as more important than the issue they do not want to listen to and wish to avoid even discussing.

What currency will an independent Scotland use?
Answer - money is money - whatever currency is available, we will use. There are already Scottish printed notes, and they are backed pound for pound by Scottish banks with the BoE. We will be fine - we are known for being good with money.

If Scotland is independent, the Bank of England will not take account of Scotland's needs when setting monetary policy.
Answer - they do not do so at the moment, so what is the difference.

How long will Scotland use the GB£? Answer - for as long as it suits Scotland.

Listening to Tory politicians and BBC interviewers like Marr - it is like someone watching a painter and decorator as the work progresses and shouting out periodically - Look, you missed a bit! Pointless and wrong - say it when its finished. An independent Scotland will be fine - as long as it is Scottish people making the decisions about and for Scotland.

murphaph

I don't see Independence as a given at all either. The polls and these election results are way too close to suggest a Yes majority is guaranteed. Sturgeon would, IMO be unwise to actually hold a referendum right now. The UK government is bankrolling the furlough scheme and taking the credit for the vaccine roll out and the impacts of Brexit are being masked by Covid for the time being.

Brexit probably helped or in normal times would have helped the case for independence but Covid has had the opposite effect. Sturgeon might be well advised to hold off a bit until Covid has been forgotten about and the impact of Brexit is really being felt.

I dunno. I think my history here shows support for independence but I'd be slow to think the path is secure either. Notwithstanding the odd idiotic bridge to NI, one underestimates Boris Johnson at ones peril. He has few supporters here but he is where he is by climbing over the bodies. Support for breaking away still only floats around the 50-55% depending on polling so hardly cut and dry. I'm sure SNP support remains stellar but to be fair, they run a tight ship compared with their neighbours. Yes 2014 started at a much lower point but CoVid changes the conversation. "Better Together" was aspirational puffery, here there's a not unreasonable argument of "now is not the time".

https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1391161381546770446

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Via Robert Peston's twitter:

If this is true, it begs the question what these love bombs will consist of. I suspect it would amount to having Edinburgh and Glasgow host some diplomatic events, and an increase in flag-waving. Not sure the Tories are more imaginative than that.

They tried Home Rule with Ireland in 1912 with the third Home Rule Bill, but then went back on it in 1914 before it was due to come into effect when they had a few army mutinies and gun running episodes in opposition to it.

They promised to give more autonomy to Scotland if they did not vote for independence in 1914 2014 (oops) but never implemented those reforms in any meaningful way. In fact they increased control by Westminster in the meantime.

So Johnson will be up in Glasgow or Edinburgh getting invited crowds of Tories to yelp and shout approval and wave flags (whichever flag the focus group thinks appropriate) and shout about a renewed programme of togetherness.

Meanwhile the bagpipes will be squealing and howling and the drums beating loudly for independence and they will get shriller and louder and louder.

There is only one answer that Scotland is looking for.

Mr.Nice Guy

Via Robert Peston's twitter:

Back to Scotland for a moment. I am told by a minister that the PM’s big plan to keep Scotland in the union is to love bomb it in the 18 months or so before Nicola Sturgeon introduces her referendum bill into the Scottish Parliament in late 2022 or early 2023.

That is consistent with my assumption that he knows he can’t stand in the way of a referendum without dishonouring the UK’s democratic heritage, and taking the whole UK to a very dark place. As Gavin Barwell argues, it is hard for a British PM to argue that parliamentary votes don’t matter, whether at Holyrood or at Westminster. His least risky strategy is probably to work out how to win a referendum, rather than looking at constitutional and legal devices to stop it.

The UK will not survive if its member countries are in the UK because of coercion rather than the choice of their citizens.

If this is true, it begs the question what these love bombs will consist of. I suspect it would amount to having Edinburgh and Glasgow host some diplomatic events, and an increase in flag-waving. Not sure the Tories are more imaginative than that.

bob mcbob

pixelburp wrote: »

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

The Scottish Parliament was setup to address the rise of the SNP. It was hoped that this would give an outlet to Scottish national feelings without threatening Westminster hegemony. so the methodology was designed to ensure that the SNP could never be a parliamentary majority.

breezy1985

pixelburp wrote: »

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

England could maybe try Donbas the area

IRISHSPORTSGUY

Itssoeasy

pixelburp wrote: »

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

Yes, it happened under his watch in 1999(i think).

BonnieSituation

Enzokk wrote: »

SNP now on 64 seats, one short of a majority.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1391109607565766661?s=20

What a disappointment for the SNP this has been...

Terrible result

Enzokk

SNP now on 64 seats, one short of a majority.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1391109607565766661?s=20

What a disappointment for the SNP this has been...

BonnieSituation

pixelburp wrote: »

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

The Lib Dems insisted on AMS or something approaching that for devolution support iirc

PommieBast

pixelburp wrote: »

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

I doubt it would have got the same cross-party support (everyone except the Conservatives) if it was slated to just use FPTP.

cameramonkey

pixelburp wrote: »

So Galloway and Dumfries remains Tory. The entire border still a unionist stronghold then. I mean sure, it makes sense when looking at the history of the location (*side eyes Berwick*) but you'd imagine that might be where resistance or agitation starts against another ref. Heck, to get completely wild, could those areas petition to join England were there a breakaway nation? Berwick 2.0, albeit minus the bloodshed.

Partition? That worked well in Ireland.

Cosmo Kramer

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Glasgow Election Region Results 2021 Greens miss out on a seat by 913 votes.

Conservative 37027 Two seats
Green Party 36114 One seat
Labour Party 74088 Four seats

Scottish National Party (SNP) got 133917 votes and Zero seats

Just on this - a right wing fascist ran in Glasgow and some other regional lists under the name "Independent Green Voice". He was higher up the ballot paper than the green party and polled around 2000 votes in Glasgow.

Almost certainly mostly green voters that put an X in the wrong box and seems to have cost the Greens a second seat in Glasgow.

Sam Russell wrote: »

More likely to stymie Labour. Remember Labour were the dominant force in Scotland prior to the IndRef.

But at the risk of being too lazy to Google, wasn't Hollyrood a Blairite labour initiative in the first place, presumably then including the election methodology?

pixelburp wrote: »

The final tallies of percentage support across the country, and especially the demographics therein, will tell an interesting picture. Especially insofar as the appetite for another referendum. I'd seen some suggestions the younger cohorts were fading on 2nd ref support but we'll see.

The Scots system does seem precision engineered to sytmy an outright majority. Technically that's not necessarily a bad thing - compromise is an important tool of governance - but in this case one wonders was it made to hold back the possibility of SNP dominance.

More likely to stymie Labour. Remember Labour were the dominant force in Scotland prior to the IndRef.

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Glasgow Election Region Results 2021 Greens miss out on a seat by 913 votes.

Conservative 37027 Two seats
Green Party 36114 One seat
Labour Party 74088 Four seats

Scottish National Party (SNP) got 133917 votes and Zero seats

The final tallies of percentage support across the country, and especially the demographics therein, will tell an interesting picture. Especially insofar as the appetite for another referendum. I'd seen some suggestions the younger cohorts were fading on 2nd ref support but we'll see.

The Scots system does seem precision engineered to sytmy an outright majority. Technically that's not necessarily a bad thing - compromise is an important tool of governance - but in this case one wonders was it made to hold back the possibility of SNP dominance.